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The Infamous Graph On The Front Page

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I'm no expert on stock market charts but I have read a little recently. I've just noticed that the HPC graph has been updated. That looks to me like a "double top" (or whatever it's called) with a test of the current price. I'd appreciate some input from the Bubbster and Durch :) and any other knowledgable stock people. But doesn't that kind of test often precede a large drop?

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The graph is adjusted for inflation and even if it does start to drop, it could mean that nominal prices remain the same. Which is kind of what I am expecting, prices relatively stable in nominal terms but gradually being eroded by inflation, lower IRs and a hint of wage growth (even if it is slow).

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The graph is adjusted for inflation and even if it does start to drop, it could mean that nominal prices remain the same. Which is kind of what I am expecting, prices relatively stable in nominal terms but gradually being eroded by inflation, lower IRs and a hint of wage growth (even if it is slow).

but...

If you look at the 3 previous peaks on the graph then we see 3 things of significance;

1. The rate of decent following a peak = rate of ascent prior to the market topping out.

2. The size and length of a fall falling each maximum is virtually all (90%+) of the gains made prior.

3. Stagnation (flat lining) doesn't happen.

In other words history is saying be afraid, be very afraid. :P

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but...

If you look at the 3 previous peaks on the graph then we see 3 things of significance;

1. The rate of decent following a peak = rate of ascent prior to the market topping out.

2. The size and length of a fall falling each maximum is virtually all (90%+) of the gains made prior.

3. Stagnation (flat lining) doesn't happen.

In other words history is saying be afraid, be very afraid. :P

Ah but that doesn't mean it will follow again. The same graph could be shown if nominal prices are level but inflation picks up, in other words the value of your house is devalued in real terms.

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Ah but that doesn't mean it will follow again. The same graph could be shown if nominal prices are level but inflation picks up, in other words the value of your house is devalued in real terms.

Yeh but 3 out 3 aint bad. History is 100% consistent so far.

Jury still out on the 4th and greatest peak - hence this site. But when/if it goes... history says ... timber!!

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History can't always be guaranteed to repeat itself - things can and will be different, otherwise mankind wouldn't keep getting it wrong.

Be prepared for things to be different - just a philosophical approach that all, that some of the bears on here might do well to take heed off.

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History can't always be guaranteed to repeat itself - things can and will be different, otherwise mankind wouldn't keep getting it wrong.

Be prepared for things to be different - just a philosophical approach that all, that some of the bears on here might do well to take heed off.

They are only ever differnt when you learn from the mistakes of the past. Does it look like the people have learnt anything this time?

Dont learn from the mistakes of the past and you are doomed to repeat them.

Edited by theChuz

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History can't always be guaranteed to repeat itself - things can and will be different, otherwise mankind wouldn't keep getting it wrong.

Be prepared for things to be different - just a philosophical approach that all, that some of the bears on here might do well to take heed off.

No. History does repeat itself consistently within parametres. Mankind gets it wrong because mankind is stupid not because the pattern is not their within easily identifiable parametres. Look at Iraq. Some said it would be like Vietnam. No.No.No. say the analystists. That was a long drawn out war that we couldn't extract ourselves from because of the damage it would do to the polarised local population. Whatever happens this will be quick and fast. Nobody likes Sadam. Its a personality thing. In and out.

The only thing that affects the overall patterns of change is chaos behaviours. Just hope a butterfly doesn't flap its wings in Brazil and cause another housing boom.

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History can't always be guaranteed to repeat itself - things can and will be different, otherwise mankind wouldn't keep getting it wrong.

Be prepared for things to be different - just a philosophical approach that all, that some of the bears on here might do well to take heed off.

I'm not saying its guaranteed - just that the 3 observations I stated earlier are consistent truisms over a 50 year period covering speculative market movements.

I am saying that based on history alone, the only scenario that is likely is a rather large correction coming your/my way soon.

For the market not to follow the historical norm then we would have to ask what has happened to alter the fundamentals of the market. There have been many micro changes, NO miras etc.. but the humans are still humans, greed is still greed and the therefore the housing market is still the same housing market it ever was.

I fully expect it to follow the historical pattern of having suckered lemmings in then pushing them over the cliff.

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History can't always be guaranteed to repeat itself - things can and will be different, otherwise mankind wouldn't keep getting it wrong.

Be prepared for things to be different - just a philosophical approach that all, that some of the bears on here might do well to take heed off.

IUN,

You can tell your ex-bear stance and a lot of what you say is fair. But something that IS different this time is the INTERNET. I think the fact we can check out prices and question asking prices will help to FORCE prices down.

It is different because of the multiples required to buy

It is different because the debt mountain is incredible and we have a Government that does not seem bothered about it.

It is different because the banks are FAR TOO LAX on their lender.

It is different because we have a situation where lending is cheap and there is no inflation to eat into the debt.

All these things are different. What is not, is the end result.

IT WILL POP AND IT WILL BE NASTY.

When???

When we get a new government/chancellor?

When the economy gets so dependent on debt that it wonders where the real cash is?

When the pound AND the Stock market collapse again?

When common sense prevails?

I DONT KNOW - BUT SOMETHING I DO KNOW

IT CANNOT GO ON!!!

TB

Edited by teddyboy

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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