What Are Realistic Price Drops With Crash?

[svag]

I want prices to fall but prices in my area have gone up 100% over the last 3-4 years. Even if they do fall 20% (or a bit more) is that the best we can hope for? Does not seem like much.

Sorry for poor first thread

Edited January 14, 2006 by GavLaw

[membrane]

100k house increases 100% = 200k house

200k house decreases 50% = 100K house

money illusion

[theChuz]

I want prices to fall but prices in my area but they have gone up 100% over the last 3-4 years. Even if they do fall 20% (or a bit more) is that the best we can hope for? Does not seem like much.

Sorry for poor first thread

Dont forget 100% up 50% down and your back where you started from. Your guess is as good as anyones, since markets tend to over shoot in both directions then you could be looking at 60% off, but why stop there why not 70% , it could just fall until its back to a 4X wages , we could get hyper inflation, 20% off in my opinion is conservative, 60% seems irrational , doubling in 5 years halving in 5 years, who knows ey

I hope that clears up any confusion

[iamconfusedagain]

I want prices to fall but prices in my area but they have gone up 100% over the last 3-4 years. Even if they do fall 20% (or a bit more) is that the best we can hope for? Does not seem like much.

Sorry for poor first thread

God knows how much they will fall, but I would be happy enough with a real term 30% drop. Dont forget that a 100% rise is the same as a 50%drop.

Look at the graph on the home page for what could happen, that would be worth waiting for!

Edit: I am always the slow typing one who gets in last.

Edited January 14, 2006 by iamconfusedagain

[the don]

nothing wrong with your first post.

i have seen no areas with 100% on average increases, but i would say that + 60% seems to be typical across the country.

i believe we will see abut 35% off which will bring them back to where they would have been, allowing for inflation.

if you look at the historical graphs there has been an undershoot after each correction, so bargains wil be possible for the patient and those of enduring faith

[BandWagon]

I want prices to fall but prices in my area have gone up 100% over the last 3-4 years. Even if they do fall 20% (or a bit more) is that the best we can hope for? Does not seem like much.

Sorry for poor first thread

Bear in mind that you only need a 50% fall to cancel a 100% rise.

I have details of a study by Goldman Sachs of 15 countries, covering 29 busts in the last 30 years.

Average declines were 27% over 4.5 years.

Bearing in mind how big this bubble has become, it's not unreasonable to think we could have falls of 30 to 40%.

Prices in Japan have fallen about 70% from their peaks. Don't think it can't happen.

Edited January 14, 2006 by BandWagon

[Converted Lurker]

Worth voting if you are an FTB?

http://forum.firstrung.co.uk/index.php?showtopic=41

[theChuz]

nothing wrong with your first post.

i have seen no areas with 100% on average increases, but i would say that + 60% seems to be typical across the country.

i believe we will see abut 35% off which will bring them back to where they would have been, allowing for inflation.

if you look at the historical graphs there has been an undershoot after each correction, so bargains wil be possible for the patient and those of enduring faith

Oh this area has doubled in the past 5 years, some places have more than doubled too

EDITED:

http://www.proviser.com/regional/towns/tew...es/price_trend/

http://www.proviser.com/regional/towns/tew...roperty_prices/

Funny as f*ck

Edited January 14, 2006 by theChuz

[Converted Lurker]

Bear in mind that you only need a 50% fall to cancel a 100% rise.

Mantra for newbie BTL players?

[svag]

nothing wrong with your first post.

i have seen no areas with 100% on average increases, but i would say that + 60% seems to be typical across the country.

i believe we will see abut 35% off which will bring them back to where they would have been, allowing for inflation.

if you look at the historical graphs there has been an undershoot after each correction, so bargains wil be possible for the patient and those of enduring faith

Hi, from inverness

"Inverness has been the best performing millennium city - those granted city status in 2000. House prices in Inverness have increased by 115% to £127,374 in the four years since September 2000."

[heresjohnny]

Hi, from inverness

"Inverness has been the best performing millennium city - those granted city status in 2000. House prices in Inverness have increased by 115% to £127,374 in the four years since September 2000."

This reminds me.

A while back I was looking at house price stats from office of the deputy prime minister - they break down transactions by value band

My ideas was this:

I want to buy a house for £150k therefore I am interested in the trends for house that fall in this bracket rather than the overall figures which include million pound mansions (and the opposite end as well i guess)

My theory is that even though avg house prices may be going up is this true for ALL house prices?

I didn't do anything with it - i'm a freelance consultant and got a new contract and the idea slipped my mind until I saw this. As someone who uses statistics as offensive weapons in the work i do (marketing and advertising) there is always something interesting going on beneath the headline figures.

Has anyone on the site looked at this previously? I've seen some impressive number crunching so maybe this has already been covered off somewhere? I'd like to see it if anyone can point me in the right direction.

[ETOPS773]

I'm hoping and expecting 50% drop - graph justifies why.

ALOT of places I expect to be the same.

[Fancypants]

Hi, from inverness

"Inverness has been the best performing millennium city - those granted city status in 2000. House prices in Inverness have increased by 115% to £127,374 in the four years since September 2000."

smart. Me & 'er indoors went on holiday round t'coast of Scotland last July, and on t'way way back we stopped off in Inverness fer petrol. Guy in t'shop were Polish.

I also read plenty of articles about how Inverness is the London of the Highlands and how its all Harvey Nichols and credit-totin' nirvana up there nowadays.

Did seem like a lovely place mind, but I wouldn't mind betting you lot have suffered from a touch of the old "irrational exuberances" lately.

Sit tight and let the medicine take its course.

[svag]

smart. Me & 'er indoors went on holiday round t'coast of Scotland last July, and on t'way way back we stopped off in Inverness fer petrol. Guy in t'shop were Polish.

I also read plenty of articles about how Inverness is the London of the Highlands and how its all Harvey Nichols and credit-totin' nirvana up there nowadays.

Did seem like a lovely place mind, but I wouldn't mind betting you lot have suffered from a touch of the old "irrational exuberances" lately.

Sit tight and let the medicine take its course.

I don't know if this is a good thing!

IT MAY be the fastest-growing city in Europe - but Inverness has been dubbed the "fastest growing housing estate in Europe".

http://news.scotsman.com/inverness.cfm?id=2096272005

Edited January 14, 2006 by GavLaw

[Fancypants]

I don't know if this is a good thing!

IT MAY be the fastest-growing city in Europe - but Inverness has been dubbed the "fastest growing housing estate in Europe".

http://news.scotsman.com/inverness.cfm?id=2096272005

"Meanwhile, more than 20 independent shops in the historic centre have closed down in recent months after the opening of out-of-town developments and the arrival of some major UK retailers."

Hmm... this does not sound like a good thing!

"Raymond Young, chairman of design quango Architecture + Design Scotland, said Inverness's growth was being "driven very much by demand" and the market and demand for housing alone could make Inverness successful as a city."

what *really* is driving the growth here?

[svag]

"Meanwhile, more than 20 independent shops in the historic centre have closed down in recent months after the opening of out-of-town developments and the arrival of some major UK retailers."

Hmm... this does not sound like a good thing!

"Raymond Young, chairman of design quango Architecture + Design Scotland, said Inverness's growth was being "driven very much by demand" and the market and demand for housing alone could make Inverness successful as a city."

what *really* is driving the growth here?

Thats the thing, I can't see anything driving the growth other that the building of houses but what are wages like at Tesco's? Enough for a house?

"Tesco, now receives 51 pence in every pound spent on food and household essentials in Inverness, its biggest stronghold."

[Fancypants]

"Tesco, now receives 51 pence in every pound spent on food and household essentials in Inverness, its biggest stronghold."

wow.

Now, I know there is an Easyjet style airport, a lovely bridge, good rail links (although it must take an age to get anywhere) and its a good jump-off for Highland tourism.

But it still sounds very much like naughty Inverness is due for a jolly good spanking. A beneficiary of the usurious growth we have seen in the UK in the last few years, and probably one of the last places it rippled out to.

Therefore, one would expect it would be one of the last to feel the resonating crash. Patience may be the order of the day for you Mr GavLaw. Either that or move to London, where it's crashing right now. But I'd recommend staying in Inverness, its much nicer. And you get 20hr days in midsummer.

[svag]

wow.

Now, I know there is an Easyjet style airport, a lovely bridge, good rail links (although it must take an age to get anywhere) and its a good jump-off for Highland tourism.

But it still sounds very much like naughty Inverness is due for a jolly good spanking. A beneficiary of the usurious growth we have seen in the UK in the last few years, and probably one of the last places it rippled out to.

Therefore, one would expect it would be one of the last to feel the resonating crash. Patience may be the order of the day for you Mr GavLaw. Either that or move to London, where it's crashing right now. But I'd recommend staying in Inverness, its much nicer. And you get 20hr days in midsummer.

20hr days of rain gets a bit depressing after a few years! I look forward to the 20hrs of darkness in the winter to hide the greyness.

Guess I will have to wait a few years before buying (5 is my guess)

[Fancypants]

20hr days of rain gets a bit depressing after a few years! I look forward to the 20hrs of darkness in the winter to hide the greyness.

Guess I will have to wait a few years before buying (5 is my guess)

I thought it was relatively dry on that side?

Any road - there's no harm in playing a wait and see game for now.

I suspect that when the time comes when you can more easily afford a house, the urge to buy one will be much reduced. That's just human nature I think - "oh that's expensive, it must be worth having" to "hmm cheap, must be something wrong with it". I guess that's partly why bubbles occur.