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deano_54321

Is It Going To Happen!?

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Hi there,

It has been a while since I logged on to HPC, and I was surprised to see that things seem to have took a turn for the worst again for FTB :( .

I am really gutted, I am trying to save but it looks like for nothing at the moment, as there seems to be little saying that house prices are going to crash, looking at the graphs.

I earn nearly £22,000 p/a, which is not too bad for my age (26), and cannot see there being any chance of me being able to buy my own home.

I am starting to feel really demoralised, I was a big optimist last year, but at the moment feel so deflated that the results just dont seem to be going in our favour.

Whats the general opinion? Do many af you still hold out much hope of a crash?

Thanks,

Dean :(

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Far from being demoralized, I find myself becoming ecstatic by the reality of the sheer number of unsold/unrented properties out there! I frequently look in my local EA windows to see the "price reduced" and "new price" signs everywhere. The thrill of seeing a "sold" (stc) sign dissappearing and re-appearing as a "for sale" is incomperable when you are in the crash frame of mind. The EAs and VIs may say how great the market is but I go by what I see with my own eyes and it says one thing: the crash cometh!

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Far from being demoralized, I find myself becoming ecstatic by the reality of the sheer number of unsold/unrented properties out there! I frequently look in my local EA windows to see the "price reduced" and "new price" signs everywhere. The thrill of seeing a "sold" (stc) sign dissappearing and re-appearing as a "for sale" is incomperable when you are in the crash frame of mind. The EAs and VIs may say how great the market is but I go by what I see with my own eyes and it says one thing: the crash cometh!

I must admit I agree on that point. I often do a search on my postcode on rightmove. about 6 months ago there were below 100 properties on there, but now there are more than 140. Excited by this I rushed over here to HPC to look at the latest trends and was amazed to see all the "up" arrows showing on the house price indicators - I couldnt believe it.

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Hi there,

It has been a while since I logged on to HPC, and I was surprised to see that things seem to have took a turn for the worst again for FTB :( .

I am really gutted, I am trying to save but it looks like for nothing at the moment, as there seems to be little saying that house prices are going to crash, looking at the graphs.

I earn nearly £22,000 p/a, which is not too bad for my age (26), and cannot see there being any chance of me being able to buy my own home.

I am starting to feel really demoralised, I was a big optimist last year, but at the moment feel so deflated that the results just dont seem to be going in our favour.

Whats the general opinion? Do many af you still hold out much hope of a crash?

Thanks,

Dean :(

What if i said no, what if i said there looks like very little chance of a crash at any time in the forseeable future, what if i told you its all differnt this time. What would you do? Would you just jump in and buy ...oh wait no, you cant, you cant afford to buy.

People get demoralised when they rely on hope to bail them out, dont rely on hope, dont base your understanding of the housing market on the hope that it will fall otherwise you will change from bull to bear every other week and ride an emotional rollercoaster that would make even a mig pilot puke.

Think about it what options do you have, if you have no options then tough sh*t get over it because this life and the people in it dont owe you jack. If you do have options then take them and take the responsibility for making that decission, either way though dont rely on hope.

What ive said will probably seem quite harsh its not meant as such, its just the way that it is.

Im 27 and earn slightly more, live with my mum in a council house, single and all my mates have settled down with kids in thier 3 bed terraces/semi's, who's fault is it.... it can only be mine, my life my decissions my responsibility. There is no 'hope' its just the way things are, i have few options at the moment none of which i want to take just now but thats my choice.

What im getting out in a very odd and round about way is take back the personal power you have over your own life instead of leaving things to hope. If it doesnt crash, get over it , the sooner the better, if it does crash then you will only have something else to moan about anyways.

Dont give away the one thing you have to 'hope' and 'destiny' make your life your own and not dependant on the housing market, if your doing that already then you will see its just not that bad anyways, pretty good though for using as an excuse not to *do* something.

:lol: bet you wernt expecting that, its not really directly AT you, its just i can see things getting worse before they get better so the sooner people toughen up a little bit the better they will be able to withstand what the spin doc's churn out.

The market is now 7% FTB's

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What if i said no, what if i said there looks like very little chance of a crash at any time in the forseeable future, what if i told you its all differnt this time. What would you do? Would you just jump in and buy ...oh wait no, you cant, you cant afford to buy.

People get demoralised when they rely on hope to bail them out, dont rely on hope, dont base your understanding of the housing market on the hope that it will fall otherwise you will change from bull to bear every other week and ride an emotional rollercoaster that would make even a mig pilot puke.

Think about it what options do you have, if you have no options then tough sh*t get over it because this life and the people in it dont owe you jack. If you do have options then take them and take the responsibility for making that decission, either way though dont rely on hope.

What ive said will probably seem quite harsh its not meant as such, its just the way that it is.

Im 27 and earn slightly more, live with my mum in a council house, single and all my mates have settled down with kids in thier 3 bed terraces/semi's, who's fault is it.... it can only be mine, my life my decissions my responsibility. There is no 'hope' its just the way things are, i have few options at the moment none of which i want to take just now but thats my choice.

What im getting out in a very odd and round about way is take back the personal power you have over your own life instead of leaving things to hope. If it doesnt crash, get over it , the sooner the better, if it does crash then you will only have something else to moan about anyways.

Dont give away the one thing you have to 'hope' and 'destiny' make your life your own and not dependant on the housing market, if your doing that already then you will see its just not that bad anyways, pretty good though for using as an excuse not to *do* something.

:lol: bet you wernt expecting that, its not really directly AT you, its just i can see things getting worse before they get better so the sooner people toughen up a little bit the better they will be able to withstand what the spin doc's churn out.

The market is now 7% FTB's

Hehe! :P Dont worry! Although I think you singled out the word hope a little too much!

I certainly dont rely on hope. Your first paragraph does say it all though.

The fact is I probably COULD afford to buy, but it would be a shabby flat in the middle of a sh*t hole, and I'm basically not prepared to do that, especially when it would still mean I would be skint all the time. But it seems that there are too many people out there at the moment doing just that, maybe thats all thats keeping the market afloat at the moment!?

BTW, what % of the markat WAS FTB's?

Cheers

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the Chuz is right - chin up!

Where i am estate agents are closing, new luxury apartments are selling slowly if at all (and more new ones on the way).

Charter house (on canute road) is showing significant falls.LINK

Its all unravelling for the top end of the market. Though i do think FTB houses are the last ones to drop in price so waiting patiently(not through choice I know) is in order here.

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Hehe! :P Dont worry! Although I think you singled out the word hope a little too much!

I certainly dont rely on hope. Your first paragraph does say it all though.

The fact is I probably COULD afford to buy, but it would be a shabby flat in the middle of a sh*t hole, and I'm basically not prepared to do that, especially when it would still mean I would be skint all the time. But it seems that there are too many people out there at the moment doing just that, maybe thats all thats keeping the market afloat at the moment!?

BTW, what % of the markat WAS FTB's?

Cheers

A number thrown about abit is around 50%, so if we take it to be 30% to 50% and now its down to 7%. Peeps are just playing pass the parcel with thier houses.

The reason i picked up on hope is because people (and its not directed at you) will need some grounding because i think we are likely to see a spring bounce, which will knock the stuffing out of most bears. Of course we might see higher volumes on falling prices but i think we should be prepared for a bull battering around march. The game is afoot

EDITED:

Looks like my estimate was to high.

First-time buyer transactions have declined from their peak of around 50% of the market

in the late 1980s to stand at 29% in 2004. Numbers of first-time buyers have also been

falling steadily since 1999.

! The average age of first-time buyers has increased from around 30 in the mid-1980s to 34

in 2004.

! Those first-time buyers who can currently enter the market borrow considerably higher

income multiples, but also have larger deposits, than in the past.

! Over time, rates of home-ownership among young households have declined. While 34%

of under-25s were home-owners in 1985 this had dropped to 22% in 2003. Likewise

home-ownership among 25-29 year olds fell from 62% to 52%, yet overall home-

ownership increased from 61% to 69%.

So in 2004 it was just under 30% FTB'r now 7%

EDIT 2

No, looks like i was right actually

First-time buyers are not expected to return to their long-term trend average of around

40%-45% of house purchase mortgages within the next four to five years.

This information is taken from a CML report from back in july 2005, i dont remember us talking about it, interesting read.

Edited by theChuz

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I earn a meager £13k a year before tax. Imagine how I feel ;-)

Even on that small sum I have no doubt that myself and my missus will one day own our own house.

Edited by HomeAlone

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Well

sipps is gone.

and if BTL looses money in your area..

and with FTB's at less then 7% of a very few buyers..

where do you think the market is heading.,.?

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I earn nearly £22,000 p/a, which is not too bad for my age (26), and cannot see there being any chance of me being able to buy my own home.

I am starting to feel really demoralised, I was a big optimist last year, but at the moment feel so deflated that the results just dont seem to be going in our favour.

being on here has helped me immensely. As has reconciling myself to the fact that I won't be buying for at least 18 months - and most probably twice that. And I'm 30.

In the meantime? Save hard and enjoy my life - the two are not mutually exclusive, far from it. Mostly I feel serene and sanguine about these matters nowadays - although I do get easily wound up by real-life bulls (not the chancers you find on here, mind)

When the time comes, I will already be 5 years into paying my mortgage thanks to the 3 years of saving that I've done (the difference accounted for by the spread between interest earned/paid on savings/mortgage)

Stay strong soldier! :)

Edited by Fancypants

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The reason i picked up on hope is because people (and its not directed at you) will need some grounding because i think we are likely to see a spring bounce, which will knock the stuffing out of most bears. Of course we might see higher volumes on falling prices but i think we should be prepared for a bull battering around march. The game is afoot

I think as usual the VI's will tell us there will be a spring bounce. It will not materialise though. Not in reality.

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isn't that tantamount to prostitution?

darling, thats what we girls have been doing for centuries, (although I got a bit idealistic, like you are, in my teens). Call it what you like.

Ever wondered why you see fat ugly old guys with young stunning women. Its the thickness of your wallet that matters not your wiener.

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darling, thats what we girls have been doing for centuries, (although I got a bit idealistic, like you are, in my teens). Call it what you like.

Ever wondered why you see fat ugly old guys with young stunning women. Its the thickness of your wallet that matters not your wiener.

oh I'm sure it's a factor.

My girlfriend is beautiful and I am a pauper. There is more to it than cash. B)

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Chaps,

I think some of you have lost the plot here. Life is far too short to be hanging out with your parents into your twenties while you save for a deposit and wait for prices to crash. It's no good for them, and it's no good for you either. If it bottoms inside 4 years, that will be fast in historical terms. How will you feel if you are still reading this forum in 2010, waiting for the gurus to call the trough? What if it takes even longer? What if the media are right and things are different this time? I'm 90% sure this forum has it right and that the media are being manipulated by VI's, but I have a 10% doubt - first, because the future is never certain, and second because most of my friends see things very differently and I have to concede, some of them have done rather well.

You really have 4 choices here

1. do nothing - wait, save furiously :blink:

2. panic, buy now :(

3. wait, but watch it unfold from another country B)

4. give up on Britain and leave for good :D

This whole forum is awash with merits of 1 and the lunacy of 2, but some of you for whom waiting has become unpleasant should at least consider options 3 and 4.

Bear in mind that many people are desperate to sell in order to leave Britain, right now. Think about that. They have the situation that you aspire to and yet they want out, but they can't leave until they sell. These people, with houses, wish they were as free as you are, to be able to move abroad at the drop of a hat. Some of them will have to take a huge financial loss on the sale of their houses in order to achieve the freedom that you are so desperate to give up - just read the expat forums.

You can always go home if and when prices crash, but meanwhile your life is not on hold and remember, the most proactive thing that anyone on this forum can do to precipitate HPC UK is to leave the country and take any deposit they have with them - every 10K you take out of the bank is 100K that they do not have to lend.

(By that argument, we should see HPCUK happen on precisely the day that I transfer my UK assets into $NZ then.......George Soros, you aint seen nothing yet ;) )

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we need a 'perfect cheer' to inspire us.......

any cheerleaders here tonight ?

HERE WE GO! HERE WE GO! HERE WE GO!

HERE WE GO! HERE WE GO! HERE WE GO!

...

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Chaps,

I think some of you have lost the plot here. Life is far too short to be hanging out with your parents into your twenties while you save for a deposit and wait for prices to crash. It's no good for them, and it's no good for you either. If it bottoms inside 4 years, that will be fast in historical terms. How will you feel if you are still reading this forum in 2010, waiting for the gurus to call the trough? What if it takes even longer? What if the media are right and things are different this time? I'm 90% sure this forum has it right and that the media are being manipulated by VI's, but I have a 10% doubt - first, because the future is never certain, and second because most of my friends see things very differently and I have to concede, some of them have done rather well.

You really have 4 choices here

1. do nothing - wait, save furiously :blink:

2. panic, buy now :(

3. wait, but watch it unfold from another country B)

4. give up on Britain and leave for good :D

This whole forum is awash with merits of 1 and the lunacy of 2, but some of you for whom waiting has become unpleasant should at least consider options 3 and 4.

...

You can always go home if and when prices crash, but meanwhile your life is not on hold and remember, the most proactive thing that anyone on this forum can do to precipitate HPC UK is to leave the country and take any deposit they have with them - every 10K you take out of the bank is 100K that they do not have to lend.

I made exactly this decision myself. I was living in rented accommodation because I felt that prices were unreasonably high. As the UK's public finances fail, Gordon brown WILL raise taxes. He has no choice. The problem is, the number of people already struggling with mortgages and credit card debt, he has few targets who can afford to pay even slightly more.

If you are 20-30-something, with savings rather than debts, and especially if you are earning reasonable money, expect to be mugged by Gordon brown's tax stasi shortly. Like a desperate crack addict, GB is addicted to borrowing the same as most of your neighbours. And just like them, he is fast reaching the limit of what he can borrow. Your nest-egg and salary are his solution.

Get out while you still can. There is no excuse. You don't need to be earning huge money. Anyone with skills (e.g. nursing, engineering, construction) can find a job abroad and have a better life, even if you see it being for a few years. I've legged it to Dubai. Bit of a property bubble here too, but probably a bigger crash in the offing than the UK has in store. Rents are now peaking and still less than outer London prices for much better quality (bigger flats, pool, gym). Cars are half the UK prices, petrol is even cheaper and there are no crack addicts breaking in to steal your stuff. Best of all, there is no tax, so you can save lots of money without Gordon Brown shaking you down to plug his fiscal shortcomings.

The government is not interested in reducing house prices and will do everything in its power to prop them up (which is not much). They will reduce IRs and desperately try to prolong the credit binge even longer. The long term damage will be terrible, but Brown is only interested in keeping things afloat long enough to become PM, which could be 2-3 years. In the meantime, vote with your feet and get out. Deprive Gordon Brown of the valuable tax revenues and skills the economy needs. If you stay, you're only helping keep the wheels on his wagon.

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Hi there,

It has been a while since I logged on to HPC, and I was surprised to see that things seem to have took a turn for the worst again for FTB :( .

I am really gutted, I am trying to save but it looks like for nothing at the moment, as there seems to be little saying that house prices are going to crash, looking at the graphs.

I earn nearly £22,000 p/a, which is not too bad for my age (26), and cannot see there being any chance of me being able to buy my own home.

I am starting to feel really demoralised, I was a big optimist last year, but at the moment feel so deflated that the results just dont seem to be going in our favour.

Whats the general opinion? Do many af you still hold out much hope of a crash?

Thanks,

Dean :(

If you're needing a little light relief they mosey on over to our friends at britishexpats for an insight into our housing 'market' and a window on the more unpleasant side of the british psyche.

http://britishexpats.com/forum/showthread....t=312449&page=7

Edited by Property Dreamer

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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