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Buffer Bear

Repossessions - Picking Up Speed?

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There are 3 repossessions listed by Mann (Countrywide) in this week's the South London Press, as opposed to one being listed every now and then by EA's in the early part of 2005 to seeing them more regularly in the latter part of the year.

Property 1 Flat 4 Albion House, Watsons Street, SE8 offer received 116k. Bought for 103k in 12/02

Property 2 Flat 14 Vaughan Williams Close, SE8 offer received 116k. Not listed on www.nethouseprices.com. Last sale in this close was no 33 on 5/05 for 200k (Terrace).

Property 3 Flat 72 Staveley Close, SE15 offer received 145k. Bought for 104k in 04/02. On 03/10/2003 84, Staveley Close, Southwark, London, Greater London, SE15 bought 133k (flat).

I think I see a pattern developing.......................................

I have just finished reading the paper and found another 3 repo's listed at the back. I have not seen this amount of repos' in this paper for many years! I will add them later. The problems in the market are starting to become visible to Joe Public.

Now added:

5 Clarence Crescent, Clapham, SW4 offer received 235k. Bought for 245k 07/02 (terrace).

90a Friern Road, Dulwich, SE22 offer received 154k Bought for 240k on 15/09/2004 (flat). :ph34r:

5 Bushell Close, Tulse Hill, SW2 offer received 137k (flat). Not listed but 7 Bushell Close (flat) sold for 151k 2/03 and in 06/05 33 Bushell Close sold for £169,000 (flat) and 8, Bushell Close (flat) sold in 06/05 for £167,000

The tanker has not just turned it has actually changed direction, completely IMO.

Edited by Buffer Bear

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Guest Charlie The Tramp

A quote from surveyor posted 20th December 2005 who covers SE London outwards.

From the info I read in the serious press, it seems that the UK economy is incredibly resilient, and this surprises me. Nevertheless, tomorrow I'll be looking at my 4th repo this week (unheard of 2 years ago). When I check on nethouseprices, I find that most of the repos were bought about 18 months to 2 years ago

Figures on mortgage possession actions are published on a quarterly basis. Publication date of the figures for the fourth quarter of 2005 will be 3 February 2006.

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Since I started this thread, the SLP has had an average of 5 repossessions advertised each week. In today's publication there were 8! I see a trend developing........................

Edited by Buffer Bear

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About 2 and 1/2 years ago, when I started looking there was not a single house for sale (with ground underneath) for under 180K. I got all excited when I saw a 1 bd house in Stratford for 159K. Now we have a 3 bed house advertised with a guide price of 110K in Peckham. IMHO Peckham is pretty equivalent to Stratford and a bit funkier (but... :rolleyes: slightly more gun crime!). Its only a guide price and the hammershith auction crew have been known to list their guide price below the reserve, but here is, proof if it were needed that expectations have shunk:

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/viewdetails-111...pa_n=2&tr_t=buy

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Guest Charlie The Tramp

Since I started this thread, the SLP has had an average of 5 repossessions advertised each week. In today's publication there were 8! I see a trend developing........................

I predict a 25% increase Q1 2006 on Q4 2005 for bankruptcies and a 10% increase Q1 2006 on Q4 2005 for repossession orders.

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Guest Winners and Losers

WAL is very depressed tonight. 'Friend' in SW London has place under offer for, wait for it, a wopping 80K more than they paid for it 4 years ago. They paid 55k. Has only been on the market for a few weeks. How can this be? :(:(:(:(

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WAL is very depressed tonight. 'Friend' in SW London has place under offer for, wait for it, a wopping 80K more than they paid for it 4 years ago. They paid 55k. Has only been on the market for a few weeks. How can this be? :(:(:(:(

you know what they say. There's a sucker born every minute

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Guest Winners and Losers

you know what they say. There's a sucker born every minute

Hello Mr Blek. Thank you. Still depressed. Where is the 'crash' then? Sucker or not, people are still making a killing. It's no wonder they don't believe that the market will crash. Neither would I!

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WAL is very depressed tonight. 'Friend' in SW London has place under offer for, wait for it, a wopping 80K more than they paid for it 4 years ago. They paid 55k. Has only been on the market for a few weeks. How can this be? :(:(:(:(

Can I assume this is a studio flat at least and a one bedroom at most? If so, the asking price for a studio in SW London is at least 110k and for 1 bedroom's at least 120k. Although 135k is a alot for either type of property, in the current climate it is not. Anyway, they haven't exchanged contracts yet and I would suggest you check out nethouseprices et al on completion as things are not always as they seem. :rolleyes:

Nothing to be depressed about. I think this correction is on course!

Edited by Buffer Bear

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Guest Winners and Losers

Can I assume this is a studio flat at least and a one bedroom at most? If so, the asking price for a studio in SW London is at least 110k and for 1 bedroom's at least 120k. Although 135k is a alot for either type of property, in the current climate it is not. Anyway, they haven't exchanged contracts yet and I would suggest you check out nethouseprices et al on completion as things are not always as they seem. :rolleyes:

Nothing to be depressed about. I think this correction is on course!

SW16. Studio. I guess they are selling at the right time. I think this is a crazy amount of money for a studio flat. What does the buyer think? That it is going to be worth 250k next year? Probably! Anyway, Finda(overpriced) property says 'under offer', but Rightmove does not. Oh, who to believe?

Edited by Winners and Losers

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Hello Mr Blek. Thank you. Still depressed. Where is the 'crash' then? Sucker or not, people are still making a killing. It's no wonder they don't believe that the market will crash. Neither would I!

Personally I believe we are in the crash right now. Certain people are still making a killing because there's gullible FTB and BTLs out there.

The evidence of the crash is pretty much ancedotal at the moment, but is being backed up with hardcore stats e.g. bankruptcies, insolvency, credit tightening.

Its when people believe that the market won't crash that they wake up one day thinking wtf just happened.

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Guest Winners and Losers

Personally I believe we are in the crash right now. Certain people are still making a killing because there's gullible FTB and BTLs out there.

The evidence of the crash is pretty much ancedotal at the moment, but is being backed up with hardcore stats e.g. bankruptcies, insolvency, credit tightening.

Its when people believe that the market won't crash that they wake up one day thinking wtf just happened.

I know, that is what happened to me, but I am amazed at the UK market when others are clearly suffering. What exactly is keeping it up? Is it just that the British are completely thick!!

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I know, that is what happened to me, but I am amazed at the UK market when others are clearly suffering. What exactly is keeping it up? Is it just that the British are completely thick!!

Cheap credit. Let's say you buy a house for £150k, and take out a mortgage for £100k. Your income multiple is probably at 5. The 50k that you didn't borrow, the bank will hold in reserve for you. A good marketing campaign, and before you know it, you've borrowed an extra 50k.

Or, if you've made overpayments on your mortgage, the bank will add that to your reserve. Debt, debt, debt. Your average person out there doesn't really understand the concept of credit.

And I've not really discussed the other factors such as pressure to get on the ladder etc

Edited by Mr Blek

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What exactly is keeping it up? Is it just that the British are completely thick!!

Thats exactly what it is. I know of people who have recently offered close to asking price for places, when I advised to go in for a lower offer to start - ignored me. Some gullible people are holding the market reasonably steady. Others are going in for the kill with low offers. I think the low offerers will drive the market down, but the gullible ones are stopping it from crashing hard.

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Guest Winners and Losers

Thats exactly what it is. I know of people who have recently offered close to asking price for places, when I advised to go in for a lower offer to start - ignored me. Some gullible people are holding the market reasonably steady. Others are going in for the kill with low offers. I think the low offerers will drive the market down, but the gullible ones are stopping it from crashing hard.

Other countries seem to be far more accepting. Even in Oz (where they are even more obsessed with property), most people I knew took the drop in prices with a grain of salt, like that is just what is expected. People in the UK truly believe that prices will go up forever. My BTL 'friend' informs me that they are OK, because they work differently - they buy property at auction so they will be OK. Ummm, if it is cheap at auction now, it will be cheaper in a crash. Doh! Let them rot in their own greed!

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Doh! Let them rot in their own greed!

Indeed. Nu Labour should be encouraging the crash, this will then allow people saving and not contributing to the economy to buy and spend. I know thats too simplistic a view, but so!! ;)

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SW16. Studio. I guess they are selling at the right time. I think this is a crazy amount of money for a studio flat. What does the buyer think? That it is going to be worth 250k next year? Probably! Anyway, Finda(overpriced) property says 'under offer', but Rightmove does not. Oh, who to believe?

Don't worry, just be patient. In 1998 a 3 bedroom house in SW16 could be purchased for 90k (now 250k+) and in 1995 (nr end of crash and best year to buy along with 1996) a nice 1 bedroom flat in Balham for 43k (now 'valued' at 220k). We will return to such figs. adusted for inflation of course and in line with earnings.

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Don't worry, just be patient. In 1998 a 3 bedroom house in SW16 could be purchased for 90k (now 250k+) and in 1995 (nr end of crash and best year to buy along with 1996) a nice 1 bedroom flat in Balham for 43k (now 'valued' at 220k). We will return to such figs. adusted for inflation of course and in line with earnings.

Now we are being silly, they wont go back to 1998 levels nothing like it.

I reckon you might at best see 35% shaved off the price. Now to many that is a hefty blow of negative equity on a 200k mortgage and a measly 50K deposit.

In 1998 that 3 bed in sw16 was 90K but ten 12 years earlier it was 25K.

I'm afaid that when it does crash anyone thinking of drops of 50% is deluded. We could have to join the ERM to get that type of economic failure.

25% is my prediction, with a base rate peaking at 7.5% late 2007.

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Now we are being silly, they wont go back to 1998 levels nothing like it.

I reckon you might at best see 35% shaved off the price. Now to many that is a hefty blow of negative equity on a 200k mortgage and a measly 50K deposit.

In 1998 that 3 bed in sw16 was 90K but ten 12 years earlier it was 25K.

I'm afaid that when it does crash anyone thinking of drops of 50% is deluded. We could have to join the ERM to get that type of economic failure.

25% is my prediction, with a base rate peaking at 7.5% late 2007.

my prediction too!.............You have always been very astute politically, Laurejon.....but your economics was always a bit shaky....... However since your return a few weeks ago your grasp of economics has mysteriously been spot on!

BTW, you are the HPC poster i would most like to meet and I mean that quite sincerely

Edited by Michael

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Now we are being silly, they wont go back to 1998 levels nothing like it.

I reckon you might at best see 35% shaved off the price. Now to many that is a hefty blow of negative equity on a 200k mortgage and a measly 50K deposit.

In 1998 that 3 bed in sw16 was 90K but ten 12 years earlier it was 25K.

I'm afaid that when it does crash anyone thinking of drops of 50% is deluded. We could have to join the ERM to get that type of economic failure.

25% is my prediction, with a base rate peaking at 7.5% late 2007.

I would not be surprised to see at least 50% of current prices. Interest rates are still to low in the UK. Once we start heading north of 7% prices of houses will come back to their 10 year moving average. Those who think we're in for a minor correction of 15-20% are in denial. Property will become the hot potato no one will want unless they are looking for a place to live and do not want to rent. BTL will become latest in histories financial losers. Look for repossesions to soar in the coming months.

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WAL is very depressed tonight. 'Friend' in SW London has place under offer for, wait for it, a wopping 80K more than they paid for it 4 years ago. They paid 55k. Has only been on the market for a few weeks. How can this be? :(:(:(:(

There are still a lot of stupid people!

They will be the first to fall ... dont worry!

TB

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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