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'forget Property, Buy Shares'

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How about Japan? They are coming out of a 15 year stagnant market? Japan Small Companies Fund (Fidelity) up 40% last year. I may place a moderate amount from my STR proceeds in that direction.

UK and US don't look as healthy as both are HPI dependent (US less so than UK which has total bubble status).

When the investors no longer buy houses (the present position in US/UK) what do they buy?

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I STR due to a job move. Sold near the top of the market but do not want to buy near the top. With the indicators pointing south now seems to be the worst possible time to buy a house again:

Hometrack shows UK market went negative YOY in 2005 first time in 10 years.
GDP estimates halved due to slowing economy.
Retail slump points to lower manufacturing and less jobs.
Expanding deficit points to higher IR.
Houses in my area (West Midlands) are not selling and there are many reductions--a trend that began mid 2005.
I am paying 750 pounds a month rent with STR funds covering the outlay almost 100%--we live almost rent free.
The house I am renting would sell for about 325k.
The IR on the majority of my STR funds is currently 4.05% AND RISING( I hold US $).
I invested about 10% of my STR funds in the Stockmarket and made 17% last year.

Can anyone give me one good reason why I should jump back in the housing market?

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I STR due to a job move. Sold near the top of the market but do not want to buy near the top. With the indicators pointing south now seems to be the worst possible time to buy a house again:

Hometrack shows UK market went negative YOY in 2005 first time in 10 years.
GDP estimates halved due to slowing economy.
Retail slump points to lower manufacturing and less jobs.
Expanding deficit points to higher IR.
Houses in my area (West Midlands) are not selling and there are many reductions--a trend that began mid 2005.
I am paying 750 pounds a month rent with STR funds covering the outlay almost 100%--we live almost rent free.
The house I am renting would sell for about 325k.
The IR on the majority of my STR funds is currently 4.05% AND RISING( I hold US $).
I invested about 10% of my STR funds in the Stockmarket and made 17% last year.

Can anyone give me one good reason why I should jump back in the housing market?

So you agree with The Guardian then.

:huh:

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Guest muttley

I disagree.

2006 could be a horrible year for shares, if the usually-reliable 4-year cycle kicks in

But any significant fallback would represent an excellent buy signal.

DrB. Do you still trade Oxiana?

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Guest muttley

I am out of Oxiana- another missed opportunity

Will it break $2 or should I sell? Everything seems to be in it's favour,copper price,takeover rumours...but it has come a long way.

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The book I am reading at the moment, "The Triumph of Contrarian Investing" details a few market sentiment indicators that give food for though. I'm not very far into it at the moment, but it makes for fascinating reading.

Here's a sample:

1. Presidential rating (scale of 1-100) vs DJIA-

Above 65 (19.8% of the time): DJIA annual gain: 2.2%

Between 50-65 (44.3% of the time): DJIA annual gain: 4.5%

50 and below (9.9% of the time): DJIA annual gain: 36%

2. Consumer confidence (scale of 40-150, don't ask) vs DJIA-

Above 113 (22.4% of the time): DJIA annual gain: 0.2%

Between 66-113 (65.6% of the time): 5.8%

66 and below (12% of the time): 26.3%

Something to chew on for the weekend?

Will it break $2 or should I sell? Everything seems to be in it's favour,copper price,takeover rumours...but it has come a long way.

I have no idea muttley, cuz I don't follow them.. however, an option might to gradually sell part of your holdings. It's always impossible to call a top, but if you gradually offload your holdings in 2 or 3 goes, you're likely to get an average price nearer the top, and it's well worth the extra commission.

In fact maybe I should take my own advice- I recently dumped JKX at 264p (bought at 155p just 6 months earlier) and now they've gone further to 310p. Kicking myself about that!

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Guest muttley

I have no idea muttley, cuz I don't follow them.. however, an option might to gradually sell part of your holdings. It's always impossible to call a top, but if you gradually offload your holdings in 2 or 3 goes, you're likely to get an average price nearer the top, and it's well worth the extra commission.

Thanks,Van.That's sound advice.I just needed to hear it from someone else.

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The book I am reading at the moment, "The Triumph of Contrarian Investing"

I want a copy!

Ive recently come to the realisation that being a general contrarian has to be the way to go.

In the mid nineties most people told me B2L was folly. Similarly, I piled into tech - stocks just after the DOT - COM crash and I recall people saying it was 'a waste of time'. Now most people tell me investing in Germany is folly - what a 'buy signal'.

BTW all you contrarians, I hear Alderney (Channel Islands) looks interesting.

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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