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Single Dwellers Keeping The Market Buoyant?

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I wonder has anyone here thought about the effect that more and more of us living alone might have on the housing market. At the moment 29% of people in this country live alone (me included) and it is predicted to increase to 48% by 2012. The reason I bought my flat was simply at 35 (seven years ago when I bought) there was no way I was going to live in a house/flat share any more and rents then and now (in brighton) were high enough to make it sensible to buy (rentals for 1 bed flats in brighton are ridiculous :o). It seems to me that this could be one of many reasons why the market hasn't crashed by now - too many people looking for something to buy.

I know people will say the market is crashing etc etc but I do think it is slower than many on this forum expected (including me)

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I wonder has anyone here thought about the effect that more and more of us living alone might have on the housing market. At the moment 29% of people in this country live alone (me included) and it is predicted to increase to 48% by 2012. The reason I bought my flat was simply at 35 (seven years ago when I bought) there was no way I was going to live in a house/flat share any more and rents then and now (in brighton) were high enough to make it sensible to buy (rentals for 1 bed flats in brighton are ridiculous :o). It seems to me that this could be one of many reasons why the market hasn't crashed by now - too many people looking for something to buy.

I know people will say the market is crashing etc etc but I do think it is slower than many on this forum expected (including me)

And with the major builders reducing the numbers of new builds, demand can only go one way - and it aint down.

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I wonder has anyone here thought about the effect that more and more of us living alone might have on the housing market. At the moment 29% of people in this country live alone (me included) and it is predicted to increase to 48% by 2012. The reason I bought my flat was simply at 35 (seven years ago when I bought) there was no way I was going to live in a house/flat share any more and rents then and now (in brighton) were high enough to make it sensible to buy (rentals for 1 bed flats in brighton are ridiculous :o). It seems to me that this could be one of many reasons why the market hasn't crashed by now - too many people looking for something to buy.

I know people will say the market is crashing etc etc but I do think it is slower than many on this forum expected (including me)

Sorry it doesn't matter which way you cook it, your comment has crash written all over it.

We can sustain current prices for the short term if two earners don't have kids and pay 3.5x their joint salaries.

But if there are loads of people living on their own then they would need to borrow >7x just to get on the ladder. All prudent credit models will tell you this is unsustainable.

Average salary = 26k

Average house price should be 3.5 x 26k = 91k

Actual average house price now 160k-195k depending on your indices.

Do the math current situation = crash.

And if you think that its 'ok' because of historically low interest rates, I direct you to the recent threads understanding the terrible long term effects of low interest rates in a low inflation environment and how the real cost of the loan lingers and lingers and lingers, making susceptability to economic shocks more likely, or a shocking lack of kids in the future = drop in future demand.

The opposite is rising inflation with rising interest rates. This would cause massive default by high borrowers and cause a crash.

The current shituation is unsustainable, full stop.

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Forget the demographics. I am always quite surprised by the people on this site who worry about demographics. I suppose it can shift the demand curve a bit, but remember that there are all those new builds coming into the market to shift the curve back again.

Remember that our excessive house prices are based on speculation, greed, and hope - not demographics.

Single people also generally have a smaller household income than multi-person family units.

Here's my own anecdotal - I'm single, no kids, no high-maintenance nothing. It means I can sell my house and go live with my Mum at the age of 44.

Doing everything I can to reduce the demand for the purchase of houses.

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Sorry it doesn't matter which way you cook it, your comment has crash written all over it.

We can sustain current prices for the short term if two earners don't have kids and pay 3.5x their joint salaries.

But if there are loads of people living on their own then they would need to borrow >7x just to get on the ladder. All prudent credit models will tell you this is unsustainable.

Average salary = 26k

Average house price should be 3.5 x 26k = 91k

Actual average house price now 160k-195k depending on your indices.

Do the math current situation = crash.

And if you think that its 'ok' because of historically low interest rates, I direct you to the recent threads understanding the terrible long term effects of low interest rates in a low inflation environment and how the real cost of the loan lingers and lingers and lingers, making susceptability to economic shocks more likely, or a shocking lack of kids in the future = drop in future demand.

The opposite is rising inflation with rising interest rates. This would cause massive default by high borrowers and cause a crash.

The current shituation is unsustainable, full stop.

Gavin, your response could have been made 2 years ago. Do you ever ask yourself why no crash then or last year or now - the ratio of income to property prices argument is no different. I'll tell you why, property prices today are a reflection of invester sentiment over FTB sentiment - you might just as well compare the price of gold or Google shares to average incomes and say they are overpriced.

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Sorry it doesn't matter which way you cook it, your comment has crash written all over it.

We can sustain current prices for the short term if two earners don't have kids and pay 3.5x their joint salaries.

But if there are loads of people living on their own then they would need to borrow >7x just to get on the ladder. All prudent credit models will tell you this is unsustainable.

Average salary = 26k

Average house price should be 3.5 x 26k = 91k

Actual average house price now 160k-195k depending on your indices.

Do the math current situation = crash.

And if you think that its 'ok' because of historically low interest rates, I direct you to the recent threads understanding the terrible long term effects of low interest rates in a low inflation environment and how the real cost of the loan lingers and lingers and lingers, making susceptability to economic shocks more likely, or a shocking lack of kids in the future = drop in future demand.

The opposite is rising inflation with rising interest rates. This would cause massive default by high borrowers and cause a crash.

The current shituation is unsustainable, full stop.

The point I was trying to make is a lot of people hark back to the previous crash but we all live in a very different way now, single people don't buy an "average house" they tend to buy 1 maybe 2 bedroom flats I don't want a huge mortgage or to rattle around a 3 bed house by myself. I didn't say there won't be a crash but the factors I have outlined do have to be taken into account . I know there are lots of reasons which contribute to house price rises and falls but I don't think this can just be ignored, women in particular are earning a lot more these days and are increasingly opting to live and buy alone

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Guest Winners and Losers

Arent they reducing the number of new builds because there is no demand?

And with the major builders reducing the numbers of new builds, demand can only go one way - and it aint down.

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Guest Winners and Losers

Oh, riiigghhtt. Silly me.

Less demand = less build = more demand = more build(but at higher prices)

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Forget the demographics. I am always quite surprised by the people on this site who worry about demographics. I suppose it can shift the demand curve a bit, but remember that there are all those new builds coming into the market to shift the curve back again.

Remember that our excessive house prices are based on speculation, greed, and hope - not demographics.

Single people also generally have a smaller household income than multi-person family units.

Everyone on this site seems to be obsessed by BTL landlords and greed I bought my flat TO LIVE IN as did millions of other people in this country - I also disagreed about smaller household income the fact that I have no children mean my disposable income is probably much higher than a lot of "multi-person family units". If you are happy to move back with you mum good on you whatever suits you but I and a huge amount of other singles have decided to go it alone

Edited by *sparkle*

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If you are happy to move back with you mum good on you whatever suits you but I and a huge amount of other singles have decided to go it alone

Ouch! Talk about a poke in the eye. Gotta choose another name. :blink:

I´m not sure purchasing a property is entirely possible "going it alone" for many singles, though I do take heart from the fact you FTBed (assumption) at 35. I think you´ll agree it was a better year to buy.

Back to my Voll Damm (Señorita BTP is out ballrom dancing, so I´m settling down with a cerveza).

btp

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I wonder has anyone here thought about the effect that more and more of us living alone might have on the housing market. At the moment 29% of people in this country live alone (me included) and it is predicted to increase to 48% by 2012. The reason I bought my flat was simply at 35 (seven years ago when I bought) there was no way I was going to live in a house/flat share any more and rents then and now (in brighton) were high enough to make it sensible to buy (rentals for 1 bed flats in brighton are ridiculous :o). It seems to me that this could be one of many reasons why the market hasn't crashed by now - too many people looking for something to buy.

I know people will say the market is crashing etc etc but I do think it is slower than many on this forum expected (including me)

Where are the stats that show that? I'm suprised.

I have only one friend who lives alone. He earns over twice the average salary so can afford to. Most of my younger family, friends and colleagues live either with a group of mates, or with their girlfriend/boyfriend.

Also, I believe that a lot of people in relationships are making the decision to move in with each other sooner, because it makes financial sense (and people get fed up living with groups), than they would do if they could each afford their own place for a year or two first.

A thought - If you live in a flat that is part of a converted house, are you considered to be living alone? e.g. a house converted to four flats with four people living alone, where as the same home would previously have homed a family or a group sharing one house.

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Everyone on this site seems to be obsessed by BTL landlords and greed I bought my flat TO LIVE IN as did millions of other people in this country - I also disagreed about smaller household income the fact that I have no children mean my disposable income is probably much higher than a lot of "multi-person family units". If you are happy to move back with you mum good on you whatever suits you but I and a huge amount of other singles have decided to go it alone

I'm shacking up at my Mum's house TO LIVE IN too.

I'll return to owning a house sometime in the medium term. But when an EA told me my terraced house was worth 240k when I think it's worth 150-180k it looked like a good time to get out, to seek an alternative to buying for a while (including a 3 month European touring holiday), and I'll come back in 3 - 5 years time.

Bit of a bugger really. If there hadn't been a bubble I'd have probably have pottered along quite contentedly paying off my 22 year mortgage.

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Ouch! Talk about a poke in the eye. Gotta choose another name. :blink:

I´m not sure purchasing a property is entirely possible "going it alone" for many singles, though I do take heart from the fact you FTBed (assumption) at 35. I think you´ll agree it was a better year to buy.

Back to my Voll Damm (Señorita BTP is out ballrom dancing, so I´m settling down with a cerveza).

btp

haha sorry didn't mean you talking to redwing - you would be surprised what a single girl can do when she has too - but seriously I just think this is something that needs to be considered - enjoy your beer

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Also, I believe that a lot of people in relationships are making the decision to move in with each other sooner, because it makes financial sense (and people get fed up living with groups), than they would do if they could each afford their own place for a year or two first.

Indeed. I live alone here, but if my girlfriend was living in this country we'd have moved in together and bought a place years ago... I was thinking over Christmas about how much money we'd both save if we lived together.

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Where are the stats that show that? I'm suprised.

I have only one friend who lives alone. He earns over twice the average salary so can afford to. Most of my younger family, friends and colleagues live either with a group of mates, or with their girlfriend/boyfriend.

Also, I believe that a lot of people in relationships are making the decision to move in with each other sooner, because it makes financial sense (and people get fed up living with groups), than they would do if they could each afford their own place for a year or two first.

A thought - If you live in a flat that is part of a converted house, are you considered to be living alone? e.g. a house converted to four flats with four people living alone, where as the same home would previously have homed a family or a group sharing one house.

More Britons live alone

EMBARGOED UNTIL 00.01HRS FRIDAY 31ST JANUARY 2005

More Britons are living alone than ever before, with more men than women living on their own between the ages of 25 and 44. And once someone has gone solo, they are more likely to remain living alone, shows new research funded by the Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC).

Using census statistics and data tracking the lives of more than 150,000 individuals in England and Wales since 1971, researchers led by Malcolm Williams, of the University of Plymouth, found a significant increase in those living on their own. The study predicts that this trend will continue.

According to the latest statistics, the population has grown by five per cent over the past 30 years, but the number of households with just one occupant is up by 31 per cent.

There are actually loads of reports on this phenomenon it has been increasing for years now - I'm not saying it is going to stop a crash I am simply wondering what are the knock on effects of it all

re you note on living in a flat in a converted house yes you are living alone being in a converted house makes no difference.

sparkle we've been down this road quite a few times.

...and I have money on this fad being cyclical too!

its not a fad divorce is at an all time high and Bridget Jones is dead and buried

I'm shacking up at my Mum's house TO LIVE IN too.

I'll return to owning a house sometime in the medium term. But when an EA told me my terraced house was worth 240k when I think it's worth 150-180k it looked like a good time to get out, to seek an alternative to buying for a while (including a 3 month European touring holiday), and I'll come back in 3 - 5 years time.

Bit of a bugger really. If there hadn't been a bubble I'd have probably have pottered along quite contentedly paying off my 22 year mortgage.

Good for you enjoy your trip, all I was trying to say was I only bought my flat to live it somewhere to call my own/ I do find on this forum that you can't open your mouth or chuck in an idea with being shouted down (not you redwing) I too think house price are mad and there will have to be a correction but we cannot just look at the last crash because I don't believe you can draw the same comparisions we live in a different world now Edited by *sparkle*

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thanks for posting the article.

...

re you note on living in a flat in a converted house yes you are living alone being in a converted house makes no difference.

I wonder then, whether the enourmous ammount of conversions is contributing to this 'phenomenon'?

Four people live in a house - they are living together. Four people live in a house converted to four flats - they are each living alone.

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I don't believe you can draw the same comparisions we live in a different world now

Indeed. This time will be far worse than the last crash.

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Guest Bart of Darkness
And with the major builders reducing the numbers of new builds, demand can only go one way - and it aint down.

They're reducing supply even though demand is "increasing".

Don't they want to make money?

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As I mentioned a while back, the local council where I was living said they thought that builders had already met the council's housing growth targets for _2012_ in 2005. So according to the council, there's already seven years worth of supply over demand in the area.

Mmm, I wonder what's going to happen?

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But if there are loads of people living on their own then they would need to borrow >7x just to get on the ladder. All prudent credit models will tell you this is unsustainable.

Average salary = 26k

Average house price should be 3.5 x 26k = 91k

Actual average house price now 160k-195k depending on your indices.

Do the math current situation = crash.

...

The current shituation is unsustainable, full stop.

I think that this current situation may be unlike others and i think the changes in lifespan and pension regulation need further consideration.

There's an economic arguement to be made that if the pensionable age rises to 67 for men then potentially we're looking at an extra 2 yrs income and with population rise and lifetimes expanding more people will need housing for longer.

Consequently its quite easy to conceive that a shift might occur which sees the income multiplier shift to 4 or 4.5 times income whilst the average mortgage term increases also to 30 or more years. This means that current wages would still be able to buy property, but obviously at greater interest repayment costs (which is why the banks might encourage this).

I'm not saying there's not going to be an HPC - simply that there's ways in which the system might be jigged (a la the SIPP fiasco) to avoid an HPC on the current wage structure.

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hahahahahahahha you twit

I'm having that for my sig. before CIUW spots it ! :)

:lol: When i first read it i was thinking i would be reading sledgehead's gone and scalped him, i see you've got there first though.

After reading it a couple of time i heard homer simpsons voice saying it in my head.

Nothing like a good chuckle at 5am

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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