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Realistbear

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http://uk.biz.yahoo.com/060113/94/g134l.html

House prices have edged higher over the past five months according to the Financial Times house price index, the most reliable guide to prices paid in the property market, published on Friday.
In December, the average price of a property in England and Wales was £196,042, an increase of 2.7 per cent over the previous year.
The small monthly increases since August, however, have not been sufficient to stop the gradual decline in annual house price inflation from its recent peak of 15.2 per cent in August 2004.
The housing market’s rise in 2005 was the lowest for a decade
.

The roller coaster is slowly reaching the top of the crest, ever so slowly it creaks forward to the peak of the greatest downhill thrill ride ever known. :lol:

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"Thirdly, only about *4% of those with a credit card in the UK actually have trouble repaying the balance they have run up on it. So, the debt mountain which is so gleafully used as an example of the coming crash, may not be quite so high after all."

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/4240906.stm

Bankruptcy figures are soaring, and this rise may be accounted for by the young who are without assets and who have overspent on credit cards and personal loans."
Overall, the average amount owed by people under 25 seeking advice from the CCCS has risen by almost a quarter in the past two years, from £11,833 in 2003 to £14,984 in 2005.

The numbers having trouble paying off credit cards is cause for concern it seems?

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I

Secondly, and I don't find it here mentioned ever, is that another reason given as to why houses are expensive are supply and demand factors. I.E. single parents, less marriage, increasing populus with out the corresponding increase in house provision, i.e. a changing set of social circumstances have evolved since the last crash some 15 years ago.

People it seems to me don't quite take this in to account when looking for this 'crash'.

do you have any facts and figures to back this up.

it is an oft reported statement, but is there any evidence that there are more households being formed.

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it is an oft reported statement, but is there any evidence that there are more households being formed.

Also, as others have pointed out before, it's often claimed that the reason why house prices are much higher relative to income now is that there are far more dual-income families... but you can't really have it both ways.

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http://uk.biz.yahoo.com/060113/94/g134l.html

House prices have edged higher over the past five months according to the Financial Times house price index, the most reliable guide to prices paid in the property market, published on Friday.
In December, the average price of a property in England and Wales was £196,042, an increase of 2.7 per cent over the previous year.
The small monthly increases since August, however, have not been sufficient to stop the gradual decline in annual house price inflation from its recent peak of 15.2 per cent in August 2004.
The housing market’s rise in 2005 was the lowest for a decade
.

The roller coaster is slowly reaching the top of the crest, ever so slowly it creaks forward to the peak of the greatest downhill thrill ride ever known. :lol:

Even this I fimd depressing. The average figure is way too high. And a rise is a rise.

When the f**k are we going to return back to normality.

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Follow up comment in the FT which shows house prices in London rose by 5 per cent in the year.

Capital gains aid property outlook

By Chris Giles, Economics Editor

Published: January 13 2006 21:41 | Last updated: January 13 2006 21:41

London houses prices have seen some of the most rapid price rises in the UK since the summer and no longer lag the rest of the country as they have for the past five years.

The figures come from a new regional breakdown of the Financial Times house price index launched today. It shows house prices in London rose by 5 per cent in the year to November, well above the 3 per cent average for England and Wales.

....as trends in the greater London housing market tend to radiate across the country, the prospect of a housing market crash now appears even less likely.... .The FT house price index is based on every property transaction in England and Wales reported to the Land Registry, including cash sales.

Yes - worth repeating..

...as trends in the greater London housing market tend to radiate across the country, the prospect of a housing market crash now appears even less likely..

Edited by ILikeBigBoobs

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....the actual data may be skewed toward a higher figure due to fewer, more expensive properties, changing hands. The key to the market is the activity at the bottom of the food chain as it were. If new money coming into the market stops the upward chains eventually collapse making a correction inevitable. Moreover, the ch......

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....the actual data may be skewed toward a higher figure due to fewer, more expensive properties, changing hands. The key to the market is the activity at the bottom of the food chain as it were. If new money coming into the market stops the upward chains eventually collapse making a correction inevitable. Moreover, the ch......

Yes, the report does say...

One important change over the course of 2005 has been the revival of more expensive property transactions, particularly in the South of England, compared with cheaper properties in the North of England and in Wales.

However, the FT does appear to have adjusted their overall figure to compensate....

"Without the adjustments for the differences in sales patterns, the annual rate of inflation would be higher at almost 5 per cent. This would have been purely a reflection of a rise in the proportion of more expensive housing transactions."

That said I do agree with you that new money does need to feed the chain at the bottom

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Secondly, and I don't find it here mentioned ever, is that another reason given as to why houses are expensive are supply and demand factors. I.E. single parents, less marriage, increasing populus with out the corresponding increase in house provision, i.e. a changing set of social circumstances have evolved since the last crash some 15 years ago.

People it seems to me don't quite take this in to account when looking for this 'crash'.

I don't know the exact figures, but I a sure the factors you refer to, have changed since the last crash and therefore will support higher prices, so it that respect it is ‘different this time'

However, what is also different this time is the amount of 'dodgy mortgages' and other forms of 'grey finance' that supports the current prices i.e. people using 10k on a credit card to finance a property purchase

There are no accurate figures because of the very nature of this finance

However it think it’s a reasonable assumption that many of the people that have taken on this sort of finance are the ones that have bought and sold and driven up the market

The responsible people that have sensible mortgages, savings, no debts etc, may have benefited from this boom, but they have had nothing to do with it on the way up

Likewise, they will have nothing to do with the prices on the way down

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On the subject of SUPPLY and DEMAND?

This is what makes me laugh so much. Last yeah was the worst year for sales in over 30 YEARS!!!! The number of properties per agent (taking into account that there are a LOT more EA's than EVER before) was around the 70 mark.

Loads of properties - not a lot of sales = LARGE SUPPLY - NO DEMAND.

So what have they done about this? They put the prices UP because there is demand.

WHAT A CROCK OF S][iT!

I agree that there are a lot more single people and less people getting married but the only fighting chance I will have is to buy jointly with my partner. Not so long ago you could buy a house on the mans wage, and the partner DID not have to work. Now BOTH need to work and you CANT have children coz you cant afford to pay the silly money for nurseries.

There is NO justification for HIGH PRICES it benefits no one but speculators or last-in-chains. They will still make money but its not enough!!! This HPI is causing serious social and demographic problems and CAN be resolved.

I hope it all comes crashing down and a lot of people get stung!!! God I'm phucked now - god knows what the next generation are gonna do???

TB

Edited by teddyboy

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Let's say there is a drop (across the board) of 20 - 30% from top to bottom. 30% off a hell of a lot is still a hell of lot to purchase a property!

I'd agree with about 30% being a realistic correction, although forced repo's of less desirable property would probably be 50% lower in auction under that senario

Given the British mentality to property, the market has always been emotive and what should be a fair price for a house, relative to earnings, will never be as sensible as the French IMO

Hence back in 1996, property was probably more sensibly priced but TOO low given the Brit mentality, so doubt if will ever go that low again

But a 30% drop, along with low interest rates i.e. 6% or less - long term, should result in a more stable market and hopefully allow the younger generation to start buying 'homes' again

PS I'm a Brit - just happen to think that our property mentality benefits a few at the expense of a lot of others

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  • 337 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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