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Are People Really That Stupid ?


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HOLA441
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HOLA442

Southampton Waterfront apartments: Charter House, Canute Road.

5024_msn050941_IMG_00.jpg

This graph shows the LR reported prices of the individual flats (scattered points) sold over time and the resale histories (linked points, lines) of those flats sold more than once. No 68 *is* unusual in having fallen so much, but so have a few others, although not as dramatically. But interesting that the only recent re-sales are sub-£200k and *all* appear to be loses.

k4dp42.jpg

Very impressive flip of No 17 B)

Edit: fixed some minor glitches with american vs english date notation - OK now :)

Prices from houseprices.co.uk

Excellent work spline! This graph shows what is happening and that is, real falls! Good research means it can be replicated, and I can confirm splines work can be replicated (see attachment for my work).

It is pretty nifty to cut and paste the data, but be careful - one thing to note is that they dont always write the address in the same way. About from 2004 on wards they started to write the address as Flat 25, not 25 Flat. Which messes up alphabetical sorting in Excel.

Also found this interesting:

85 Charter House, 8 Parking Space To Flat, 17/05/2002 £115,950

The only parking space sold. (lease) Ouch a lot of money to park your car..

I am sure I will look at other new builds and see whats really happening.

charter_house.JPG

post-850-1137259871.jpg

Edited by trev
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HOLA443
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HOLA444

Nice chart. Wouldn't it be satisfying to post it in a communal area within the building in question!?

I´m visiting Southampton Tuesday-Friday..... this might be cause for a mini HPC meet at the Frog and Frigate (just across the road) or the new Tesco Express (for the budget conscious), followed by a beer (white lightening for Tesco) induced bravado two zero covert op as described above. :ph34r:

btp

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HOLA445
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HOLA446

Spline,

That graph is a superb piece of chartmanship. Very neatly conveys a lot of information.

So much so, I couldn't resist pinching it and doing it for a similar place near me, Crown Heights (known locally as "Crown Sheights"), a newbuild set of "luxury apartments" with beautiful vistas of the town centre multi-storey car park here in sunny Basingrad.

central_area_crown_heights.jpg

Frankly, the images on the internet that I could find don't do the awfulness of this place any justice at all. Anyway, on to the chart:

crownsheights.gif

As you can see, it tells a remarkably similar story, although there are unfortunately fewer resales. A neat bit of flipping by a shrewd investor mid 2004, possibly from an off-plan purchase? But the only sales in 2005 have been low value and loss-making.

Ladies and gentlemen, I declare this crash officially open for business. ;):lol:

post-2154-1137411176.gif

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HOLA447

hi

i want to empower YOU and enable you guys to do your own graphs - at least you ll know whats really going on with house prices.

Right download the attachment - right click and choose save-tagert-as. Save the file to your hard disk - Unzip the file. There are no viruses on my computer as i am aware.

You can now look at the xls file (EXCEL) and see I how i done it.

Step by step process using excel XP.

1. Cut and paste the data from your source of houseprices (i choose my words wisely here).

2. Change the font to size 8 and Arial Narrow - this makes it all fit nicely in the window.

3. Select the coloums with data not required. E.g. Freehold or leeasehold. Delete them

4. Move the coloum with the addresses to the left hand side as your first colomn. 4. Now going from the top left and drag with your mouse with the left button , down to the right of the last data, to select all fields. Now click on sort by alphabet. (its the icon A-Z with a arrow going down). This puts all the address by alphabet.

Quickly look at the addresses and make sure the person typed them in the right format. E.g. 1 florence road, flat 1 may need to be changed by hand to 1 florence road, 1 flat. If this insnt done youre buggered. After correction, you can sort again by alphabet once more.

5. You should have something like the excel page you have downloaded! A GRAPH IS ALREADY INCLUDED in there - goto "chart 1" to see (bottom left of excel window)

6. HOW TO DO A Graph - right the next bit.

a. Click on the grah icon.

b. Choose XY scatter straight line graph (point to point) the bottom left icon

c. go to next

d. go to series

e. go to add

f. click on the funny icon at the end of the name field, it will direct you to choose a box. For this choose the first address. Now click on the funny icon to get back to the previous screen

e. for x values. select the date of sale

f. for y values. select the price

g. thats one data plotted. Then goto ADD again and carry on until its all done.

h. IF THE PROPERTY HAS BEEN SOLD MORE THAN ONCE >

Add and select the address as before (do not select multiple addresses)

x values - you need to left click on the date and drag onto the the next date of sale. i.e selecting a range of data. As we have sorted the address by date - all the sales will also be below.

y values - you need to left click on the first price of sale and the next price of sale.

Thats all too it

hang on i ll do a generic file - for you to look at - pretty dodgey using actuall data - i think its copyrighted

EXAMPLE.zip

EXAMPLE.zip

Edited by trev
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  • 8 months later...
7
HOLA448

Worth an update- 30th SEPTEMBER 2006

9 months on

2 more entries on houseprices

Flat no 7, and 52..

Flat 7 sold for a profit

29/06/2006 £162,000 Flat L No Map 85 Charter House, Flat 7

07/06/2002 £141,950 Flat L Yes Map 85 Charter House, 7 Flat,

I am pleased to announce that Flat 52 sold at a loss

08/06/2006 £185,500 Flat L No Map 85 Charter House, Flat 52

31/01/2003 £245,000 Flat L Yes Map 85 Charter House, 52 Flat

Unfortunately i dont have the original Excell spreadsheet so i ve had to update the graph from screen grabs.

The updated graph shows at time of drawing - OUT OF 5 RECENT RESELLS - 4 HAVE LOST MONEY

Edited by notanewmember
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HOLA449
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HOLA4410

#Sums

08/06/2006 £185,500 Flat L No Map 85 Charter House, Flat 52

31/01/2003 £245,000 Flat L Yes Map 85 Charter House, 52 Flat

Yes/No = new build

£60K down man! Thats nearly 25% ouch!

That can't be right, surely the BTLs as the bulls and trolls on this forum keep telling us are queuing up to buy these flats at asking price?

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HOLA4411

i think the resells at big losses are repossessons?

No one would purposefully sell at such a big loss.

Anyone who knows the southampton area will know that theres a an oversupply. A new development nearby called. Telephone house 2 bed flats are now available from £180K....NEW. Which makes anything at 85 charter house for a similar property at £245K expensive

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HOLA4412

Anyone who knows the southampton area will know that theres a an oversupply. A new development nearby called. Telephone house 2 bed flats are now available from £180K....NEW. Which makes anything at 85 charter house for a similar property at £245K expensive

But as our dear 'Marina' has told us all numerous times, there are a "never-ending supply of BTLs" out there, even in Southampton... :rolleyes:

No such thing as an oversupply with a never-ending supply surely. :lol:

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HOLA4413

i think the resells at big losses are repossessons?

No one would purposefully sell at such a big loss.

Anyone who knows the southampton area will know that theres a an oversupply. A new development nearby called. Telephone house 2 bed flats are now available from £180K....NEW. Which makes anything at 85 charter house for a similar property at £245K expensive

With USA market declining and HIgh Tech jobs being outsourced overseas

smells of the Three RRR 'S

RECESSION REDUNDANCIES REPOSESSIONS

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