Jump to content
House Price Crash Forum
what

Are People Really That Stupid ?

Recommended Posts

Property Sold in 2003 for

24 Nov 2003 68 Flat 85 Charter House, Canute Road, Southampton, Southampton SO14 3FZ Flat £315,000

Now in 2005

19 Apr 2005 68 Flat 85 Charter House, Canute Road, Southampton, Southampton SO14 3FZ Flat £183,500

It won't be long now, before the bubble bursts.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

i think inner city new build are already down 30%............but will go down that much even if the general market stays level.....................................they're a separate market.............

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

couldnt agree more - inner city new builds appeal to a niche market (for buyers who actually intend to live in them, not for investment purposes)

Edited by trev

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Property Sold in 2003 for

24 Nov 2003 68 Flat 85 Charter House, Canute Road, Southampton, Southampton SO14 3FZ Flat £315,000

Now in 2005

19 Apr 2005 68 Flat 85 Charter House, Canute Road, Southampton, Southampton SO14 3FZ Flat £183,500

It won't be long now, before the bubble bursts.

sounds like an auctioned reposession.... a BTLer that never found tenants that could afford his rent...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Those numbers are so dramatic, I thought you must have made a mistake and got 2 flats in the same block or something.

No, exactly the same flat. Down just the straight 42%.

Odd really when you think prices have STILL been going up over the last two years according to Nationwide, Halifax et al. :lol:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

sounds like an auctioned reposession.... a BTLer that never found tenants that could afford his rent...

That area is stuffed with new built flats on the waterfront. A perfectly nice seafood restaurant with some very attractive young ladies behnd the bar has been replaced by a tesco express, complete with hangabout kids.

Oh, and it´s very close to the Institute, sorry, Solent University halls.

See Southampton posts for more info on the multitude of flats appearing in the "Your Area" section.

->CLICKY<- here. I believe this example may have been mentioned before.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

i think inner city new build are already down 30%............but will go down that much even if the general market stays level.....................................they're a separate market.............

Except when lenders take big hits on these properties they will have to tighten lending across the board. It's vicious circle (as opposed to the virtuous one where they offered ever greater amounts of credit based on higher valuations of property that were themselves a result of easy lending).

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Those numbers are so dramatic, I thought you must have made a mistake and got 2 flats in the same block or something.

No, exactly the same flat. Down just the straight 42%.

Maybe it's a divorce settlement or something, what are the neighbouring 'appartments' selling for?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest Winners and Losers

It doesnt really matter what the reason was for the sale, even if it was divorce or something, if prices were still go up or stable the price would have been much closer to the original paid.

Maybe it's a divorce settlement or something, what are the neighbouring 'appartments' selling for?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Property Sold in 2003 for

24 Nov 2003 68 Flat 85 Charter House, Canute Road, Southampton, Southampton SO14 3FZ Flat £315,000

Now in 2005

19 Apr 2005 68 Flat 85 Charter House, Canute Road, Southampton, Southampton SO14 3FZ Flat £183,500

It won't be long now, before the bubble bursts.

I can hardly believe that!

Are you sure this property hasn't been divided into 2, and 1 sold off? Is there a 68A?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Southampton Waterfront apartments: Charter House, Canute Road.

5024_msn050941_IMG_00.jpg

This graph shows the LR reported prices of the individual flats (scattered points) sold over time and the resale histories (linked points, lines) of those flats sold more than once. No 68 *is* unusual in having fallen so much, but so have a few others, although not as dramatically. But interesting that the only recent re-sales are sub-£200k and *all* appear to be loses.

k4dp42.jpg

Very impressive flip of No 17 B)

Edit: fixed some minor glitches with american vs english date notation - OK now :)

Prices from houseprices.co.uk

Edited by spline

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Great graph.

It looks like those who bought after mid 2003 in Southampton are really stuffed.

It's easy to see how they got caught in the hype, looking at a place that was flipped for £70k in 2002 (number 17)

But they were the last, greatest fools, a mistake they will have a very long time to consider.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Oh my word - now that graph is a great piece of work. Notice how much earlier the peak appears to be than the often quoted top of the market in Autumn 2004. Anyone buying as early as mid 2003 has lost value at the sell. And the slide in 2005 is frightening!!

Anybody else got a similar high turnover grouping of similar properties and the time to plot the graph?

Well done Spline

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Divorce would explain it perfectly. One partner sells their share to the other and one name is taken off the Land Register, hence the new entry on the register.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Divorce would explain it perfectly. One partner sells their share to the other and one name is taken off the Land Register, hence the new entry on the register.

I think most contributers would prefer to put their own spin on this. Logical explanations which do not fit with a HPC are not welcome.

Edited by ILikeBigBoobs

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Number 50 has also taken a massive hit, down from 250k to about 160k, or around 36%.

And as already mentioned, the reason for the sale is irrelevant. The price is the price, the market is the market. Obviously the price was the best the seller could get, so that's market value.

One more point to note as further evidence of a huge downturn are the two flats sold for 130/140k at the end of 2001 (so obviously very similar units). The Q4 2003 resale was at about 210k, but the Q4 2004 re-sale on the other place went at about 160k – hence that type of flat dropped 50k in a year and have surely dropped a whole lot more since that last sale.

Does anyone know what these places are “selling†for now (well, what are they offered at). I bet a fair few residents would jump in the solent if they saw that graph. Tough sh!t on the specualtors but you gotta feel sorry for say a young couple on a 6X salary mortgage who are in one hell of a mess.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

There might be a few reasons why a prperty might be entered in the Registry at a low value.

But you cant get away from the fact that there were no properties sold for more than 200k throughout 2005.

This was the first year that this has occurred.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Number 50 has also taken a massive hit, down from 250k to about 160k, or around 36%.

And as already mentioned, the reason for the sale is irrelevant. The price is the price, the market is the market. Obviously the price was the best the seller could get, so that's market value.

The reason isn't irrelevant if the amount paid is only half the market value, ie in the case of divorce.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

There might be a few reasons why a prperty might be entered in the Registry at a low value.

There may be the odd fraudulent sale at a super-low price - typically when someone has taken a massive hit anyway and they’re planning to do a runner.

Which is why I think the places sold in Q4 2001 offer compelling evidence as to what happened to prices through 2004. Even the buyer at 130k sold for about 160k, so was still well in the money. And as you say, the 2005 sales are all sub 200k.

Of course we don’t know all the circumstances surrounding the sales, but everything points to a huge price reversal. It would be ridiculous to suggest that all of sales in the last 18 months are down to divorce/fraud, hence the low prices.

This is the strongest evidence I’ve seen yet of what’s really happening to the new-build market. The developers are gonna have to do a lot more than new carpets and a kitchen to shift the next batch of “executive†flats.

Dr. Bubb has repeatedly said that this is the sector to watch for evidence of a crash, and it’s clearly happening.

Edited by Beans-on-Toast Britain

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The reason isn't irrelevant if the amount paid is only half the market value, ie in the case of divorce.

It might have been this one.

Maybe? Auction!

No, that was....

No 51. Went at Auction.

So is that number 50 and number 51 taking a big hit?

Let us not forget the Titanic set out from Southampton. Maybe it will be the start of our HP crash. The Titanic stopped in France and Ireland before heading towards a watery grave somewhere in the Atlantic.

btp

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

  • 339 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.