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2006 So Far

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Ahh and Wow - 2006 has started in a fashion I could not have imagined, good and bad.

Remember the oil defecit being longer than anything since 1980.

Thus a £200m trade defecit for the U.K. from £100m up - seemingly due to oil or lack of it, and that was in October. £300 million down in 1 month.

Presumably the same or worse to come.

Credit crunching with Portman stopping Loan to Value mortgages of 100% late last year.

Nationwide giving only 3.5 x salary - recently.

Many others stopping at 4 x recently - salary.

Insolvencies / liquidations and credit looking like the motha of all issues, money troubles in layterms.

Channel 5 mentioning the Crash word.

China insinuating a pull from the dollar.

The FED not disclosing M3 when Iran sells oil in other currencies.

Soros saying that the U.S. has a housing crash for 2007.

America is after the U.K. in this housing trend.

Oil and Gas prices up with the Russians looking for some hardball profit negotiating with it's European transit route Countries, Is that an ex-soviet thumbscrew for dissodent neighbours or pro-China or both.

And so we have some anti-western Global troubles.

Well - these are actually devestating facts and figures.

The news is pretty much pro housing crash, and bad U.K. problems - lets remember the housing people who will lose out. Some will hurt, bad.

Some will be BTL'ers who thought they would be making millions.

Others will be from the retirement community who have taken MEW's on bad advice. My parents thought of doing this. They would have like the BTL'ers forced up consumer spending and at the same time lost important percentage value of their house as well as real price market costs.

Homeowners with silly ATM housing debt don't care, they're just living in a house at an affordable price.

Tthe news is only good Patient First Time Buyers. (PFTB)

So for us few patient and well informed they coming seasons will be bad to watch while those who created money from nothing will then lose it and get burnt.

I distinctly remember their satisfaction at making so much - after all wouldn't you if you were in the herd. Baah, Baah - Sheep noise in case you wondered cos apparently Bleet may be an alternative.

There's pretty much everone around you in their expensive cars, new togs, pop idol hair, and image creating fashion mag seeminly making money. Well it's only cash in time when you sell when times are high. Are they to remember Buy low- Sell High. Some are buying High and maybe just maybe they are gonna feel the might on this tanker turning.

There really is nothing we can do but watch the analagous beamoth of that oil tanker turn and keep coming at you bank accounts. If those accounts are not protected then woops money and possessions gone, in fact re-possessed.

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Whilst I admire your enthusiasm and agree with the majority of your points there is still NOT ONE major thing that will cause a RAPID correction. This is gonna be a slow drawn out thing.

I am certian that prices for the next few years will only go down - from when is uncertain as many places have dropped (Liverpool -5.1% last year with Nationwide Figures). People are still paying too much for housing.

Until these KNOBS! stop paying silly money for over-valued houses we will struggle. They are getting fewer and fewer but they still exist.

SENTIMENT is the main trigger! How sentiment changes will be through UNEMPLOYMENT, IR RISES, SLOW ECONOMY i.e. Bad news for all. Lets not forget we ALSO have to ride this storm.

My main hope is IR's go up 1%. And this causes houses to correct by droping 15-20% (of asking price) or 10% of average price sold. My biggest concern is borrowing as little as possible. I dont want a debt mountain when the IR's go up.

Naughty thing to say, but if the IR's went up 1% hopefully the KNOBS who have fuelled the prices by paying anything, will get repossessed. There is no excuse for stupidity!

TB

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What do we think could cause a rapid price drop.

The whole 9 yards, I guess winter has had it's oil issues but did you know that the U.S. heating bill is higher in Summer than winter, (Air Conditioning costs), and that's a big amount. So summer makes no odds to us when oil and gas is on an open market and we have run out of the stuff.

Retail and Manufacturing is down big and yes we may be loosing huge amounts of jobs - there's 25% of them employed by the govt. I read and then indirect benefits from high spending job creation on top. So what will happen when govt. spending slows as Mr. Brown has been ordered by the European Govt.

Less cash and less work so even less cash and even less work - the downward spiral begins and doesn't stop for a while as you say and exactly as the boom was recieved. More cash, more work = more cash thus more work.

External factors do also lead to the cycle in this, global economic change which is bloody obvious to all but the happy consumer, and BTL'er.

Yes - things will happen quick - but not overnight. If you were on this site a year ago things were happening and things were being said and the VI's were wrong and the economists right. It will be shorter and tougher in my oppinion this time as it is bigger and more severe.

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But will you have a job at the end of this year?

i would rather have no job than to be working only to give that pay up to some parasitic BTLr.

things have to change otherwise you will all get your £40k nicked by HPI = pointless working.

at least i could loaf about with no pressure or deadlines. id take up sport angling, fell walking and reading more. id eat corned beef and eggs and things. i would grow my own weed/tomatos/potatos and if i was lucky id find an allotment close by a car boot location. with my giro and my ebay id survive i think. AND id still be in the same flat as now. im awaiting the crash or the non crash. i would only put in another 2 years like this.

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  • 302 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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