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The Masked Tulip

"...we Have Peaked. And Beyond That Is A Downhill Run."

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1. The housing bubble will burst this year. This once red-hot market is already cooling, with sales declining and inventories rising. The boom has largely been driven by investors' zeal for high returns, ample cheap mortgage money and lax lending standards. Unlike earlier U.S. housing booms and busts that were driven by local business cycles such as the rise and fall of the oil patch along with oil prices in the 1970s and 1980s, this one is national and, indeed, global.

Since houses are much more widely owned than stocks, the bubble's likely demise will shake the economy more than the earlier bear market in stocks. And if house prices collapse, that could change the good deflation of excess supply I foresee to the bad deflation of deficient demand.


Edited by The Masked Tulip

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?

      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%

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