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maxwhkalis

Incredible (unbelievable) Inflation

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The first paragraph is all you need to understand. Reflect and come read the rest later.

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) has released the Consumer Trends report for the first quarter of 2005, stating that according to our preferred measure inflation the ‘main upward pressure is from fruit, particularly grapes and to a lesser extent, strawberries’. By tracing the methodology behind measuring rates of inflation and how this has changed it is possible to see how the ONS can make such a statement.

Inflation has historically been measured by the Retail Price Index (RPI) and RPI excluding mortgage interest payments (RPIX). However, measurement of the UK rate of inflation has been officially replaced by the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in 2003 after emerging in 1997 as the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP).

RPI is designed to measure ‘inflation, or the cost of living’, (Dictionary of Economics, Penguin, 2003) and is based directly on household expenditure. The dictionary poetically fails to acknowledge the CPI, a measure based on national accounts that aspires to being a ‘better macroeconomic indicator of inflation’ against four criteria assessing the merits of alternative inflation measures:

1) The conceptual basis adopted to record prices.

2) Scope of index. In particular how transactions covered by index correspond to those the monetary policy is intended to influence.

3) Index should be unbiased in relation to what it is trying to measure. May include quality changes or change in formulae for aggregation.

4) Usability: timely, accurate, subject to minimal revisions.

As the insufferable jargon suggests, the criteria by which the CPI is favoured is a Euro- preference, designed by Eurostat to help compare inflation levels across the EU. It has merit as an international comparison but why would Gordon Brown possibly choose to adopt this as a national measure? Perhaps because the CPI has been design as stated in criteria 2, to manipulate figures and because it is lower. The CPI has allowed the inflationary pressure from the housing boom to be swept under the carpet in order to keep borrowing cheap and expenditure flowing. By adopting the European perspective as our own national figure Gordon Brown is also leading us towards the arms of he European Central Bank, where our interest rates would be dictated if we joined the Euro. It seems that our national rate of inflation has been dislocated from our British consumer spending identity so it’s no longer a measure of the cost of living and resilience of pounds but an accounting convenience and sleight of hand.

The ONS provides RPI and CPI figures, both with and without all housing costs. Summary 1 reveals the impact of the indices and how influential the housing costs are for their results.

Summary 1. Housing Impact as % of All Inflation

Index Type =

1. With Full Housing

2. Without Housing

3. % Inflation from Housing

RPI Measurement Year/1/2/3

1997 3.1 / 2.4 / 23%

2004 3.0 / 1.2 / 60%

CPI Measurement Year/1/2/3

1997 1.8 / 1.8 / 0%

2004 1.3 / 1.1 / 15%

So where have the differences come from?

Firstly, the inclusion of Mortgage Interest Payments (MIP) in RPI is a significant factor. Between 1999 and 2004 the total value of mortgages rose from £6bn to £10bn and re-mortgages rose from £2bn to £8bn. This vast equity release has apparently not manifested considerable inflationary pressure on general prices under CPI as it excludes this expenditure.

The RPI has its own problem. It suffers the perverse effect that interest rate raises immediately raise the index even though the increase in interest rates is the principal tool used to lower inflationary pressure. For this reason the RPIX is often preferable. The RPIX is used to address the level of state benefit and pensions. If these matters were based on CPI the issue would surely come under greater scrutiny.

A measure has been made to assess the difference between CPI and RPIX (differences summarised in Summary 2). Between 1996 and 2004 inflation has averaged 0.7% p.a. higher according to RPIX. The Office of National Statistics (ONS) proposes it is now 1%. This is half from the formula effect, a purely mathematical difference from measuring geometric averages for CPI (RPIX uses arithmetical average). The other half percent is from the CPI omission of council tax and relating to owner occupied houses; mortgage interest payments (MIP), depreciation, building insurance, ground rent and other house purchase costs.

In the CPI overview household fuel and water figures in CPI are heaped in with rent. In this bracket expenditure between 1996-2004 rose 53% but the category’s weighting slumped 23%. This devaluation affects almost a fifth of total household expenditure. Though rentals have increase between 1996-2004 both nominally and as a percentage of the total consumer expenditure, the weighting importance has been reduced. The weight attributed to rent has been devalued by 12% from between 1996 and 2004 when during the same period the expenditure on rent rose 44%. As a percentage of overall domestic spending it grew from 12.4% to 13.7%.

The CPI does include a more detailed measure of both actual and imputed rent. The imputed rent values that attempt to factor in the cost of owner occupied dwellings are based on mortgage figures for the last 23 years and assumes both that mortgages make up on average 55% of purchase and that 75% of the value is mortgage repayments. In 2004 average mortgage as percentage of house price was in fact 61% and lenders working with low base rates are pushing this higher. They estimate lenders rates as 5% but this appears undervalued. These genial figures set the average imputed rent cost per household at £15/week.

There is acknowledgement that the issue of housing weighting in the CPI ought to be addressed and an advisory committee report is due in January 2006. The last meeting was 1992-94. Perhaps they might suggest a return to establishing the cost of living or basing weights on actual expenditure? It is all pressure on the same money supply and the heaviest increases in expenditure are the most discounted under CPI. If direct expenditure was applied to the current CPI figures the weighting for housing would be 187 rather than 103 and for all rentals it would be not be 48 but 137 not, 99 of which relates to imputed rent. How about using arithmetical averages for doing the arithmetic too?

The ONS are not concerned by the diluted measures. The national statistician in November 2004 explained the CPI and RPI weighting changes to parliament, saying that ‘expenditure weights are updated annually so that the indices are representative of consumer spending patterns over time’, though this does not appear to be the case. The ONS compute the statistics, principally for the use of the Monetary Policy Committee. As the prime concern of this Bank of England committee is to provide stability it is not in their interests to rock the boat.

Defendants would say that no measure is right or wrong but that they are arbitrary. This word has 4 definitions;

1) Dependent on will or pleasure.

2) Dependent on the decision of a legally recognised authority.

3) Based on mere opinion or preference as opposed to the real nature of things; capricious; unpredictable; inconsistent.

4) Unrestrained in the exercise of will or authority; despotic; tyrannical. Which interpretation of arbitrary does the Treasury’s defendants assume?

A low, steady inflation rate has been of little interest to the public. We just expect prices to creep up because it’s what they’ve always done as far as we remember. By keeping the nominal rate artificially low the internal changes have flown below the radar of public perception. The public have been put to sleep by the tangle of terminology of inflationary indicators and nobody argues with the anaesthetist. For example, few people would realise that while house prices are 149% higher than their peak in the eighties, this equates to only a 52% rise in real terms (Office of Deputy PM). People have lost sight of the figures and are riding a feel good factor that is not supported by real figures.

Though the fruit salad looked like a healthy option we are still the brats eating our pudding before the main course (or paying for either) and as well as spoiling our characters this might explain why the main upward pressure on inflation is now from fruit.

Table 2. CPI/RPIX Summary

CPI(Formerly HICP)

Source Information: National Accounts

Represents: All Households, including institutions and foreign visitors.

Formula Used: Geometric

2005 Q1 Inflation: 2.0

RPIX

Source Information: Expenditure & Food Survey

Represents: Excludes richest 4% and those pensioners 3/4 reliant on benefit.

Formula Used: Arithmetical

2005 Q1 Inflation: 2.9

©Max Kalis 2005

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Using the data from www.statistics.gov.uk inflation at November 05 was as follows: (Note all the non-essential items at the top of the list....)

Liquid Fuels = 24.32%

Gas = 17.15%

Water Supply = 13.49%

Electricity = 11.86%

Sewerage Collection = 9.26%

Solid Fuels = 8.57%

Financial Services N.E.C = 8.11%

Fuels and Lubricants = 7.90%

Passenger Transport by Air = 7.45%

Other Services NEC = 7.31%

Maintenance and Repairs = 6.74%

Other Services for Personal Transport Equipment = 5.99%

Passenger Transport by Road = 5.82%

Insurance Connected With Health = 5.12%

Reapir of Audio-Visual, Photographic and Data Processing Equipment = 5.10%

Service for the Regular Repair of Dwelling = 5.01%

Recreational and Sporting Services = 4.96%

Dry-Cleaning, Repair and Hire of Clothing = 4.93%

Cultural Services = 4.90%

Dental Services = 4.66%

Hairdressing Salons and Personal Grooming Establishments = 4.05%

Newspapers and Periodicals = 4.05%

Domestic Services and Home Care Services = 4.02%

Medical Services and Paramedical Services = 3.86%

Passenger Transport by Railway = 3.85%

Milk, Cheese & Eggs = 3.80%

Fish = 3.47%

Restaurants and Cafes = 3.24%

Pets and Related Products = 3.24%

Canteens = 3.09%

Sugar, Jam, Honey, Syrups, Chocolate and Confectionary = 3.04%

Coffee, Tea, Cocoa = 3.04%

Repair of Household Appliances = 2.94%

Bread & Cereals = 2.71%

Furniture, Furnishings = 2.39%

Carpets & Other Floor Coverings = 2.25%

Spare Parts and Accessories = 2.20%

Meat = 2.03%

Non-Durable Household Goods = 1.93%

New Cars = 1.12%

Major Durables for In/Outdoor Recreation = 0.64%

Other Medical and Therapeutic Equipment = 0.50%

Wine (inc Perry) = 0.48%

Mineral Waters, Soft Drinks, Juices = 0.47%

Misc Printed Matter, Stationery and Drawing Materials = 0.28%

Fruit = 0.26%

Other Personal Effects = 0.00%

Spirits = -0.10%

Books = -0.32%

Jewellery, Clocks and Watches = -0.38%

Pharmaceutical Products = -0.56%

Insurance Connected with Transport = -0.72%

Food Products = -0.95%

Appliances, Articles and Products for Personal Care = -1.12%

Games, Toys and Hobbies = -1.14%

Other Articles of Clothing and Clothing Accessories = -1.20%

Vegetables Including Potatoes and Other Tubers = -1.27%

Package Holiday = -1.31%

Garden Plants and Flowers = -1.56%

Telephone and Telefax Equipment and Services = -1.62%

Insurance Connected with the Dwelling = -1.85%

Products for the Regular Repair of Dwelling = -1.95%

Beer = -2.61%

Major HH Appliances and Small Electrical HH Appliances = -2.62%

Second Hand Cars = -3.32%

Motorcycles and Bicycles = -3.34%

Oils & Fats = -4.94%

Recording Media = -5.28%

Garments = -5.53%

Equipment for Sport Camping and Open Air Recreation = -7.19%

Passenger Transort by Sea and Inland Waterway = -12.02%

Equipment for Sound and Picture = -16.63%

Information Processing Equipment = -17.17%

Photographic, Cinematographic and Optical Equipment = -26.81%

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Using the data from www.statistics.gov.uk inflation at November 05 was as follows: (Note all the non-essential items at the top of the list....)

Liquid Fuels = 24.32%

Gas = 17.15%

Water Supply = 13.49%

Electricity = 11.86%

Sewerage Collection = 9.26%

Solid Fuels = 8.57%

Financial Services N.E.C = 8.11%

Fuels and Lubricants = 7.90%

Passenger Transport by Air = 7.45%

Other Services NEC = 7.31%

Maintenance and Repairs = 6.74%

Other Services for Personal Transport Equipment = 5.99%

Passenger Transport by Road = 5.82%

Insurance Connected With Health = 5.12%

Reapir of Audio-Visual, Photographic and Data Processing Equipment = 5.10%

Service for the Regular Repair of Dwelling = 5.01%

Recreational and Sporting Services = 4.96%

Dry-Cleaning, Repair and Hire of Clothing = 4.93%

Cultural Services = 4.90%

Dental Services = 4.66%

Hairdressing Salons and Personal Grooming Establishments = 4.05%

Newspapers and Periodicals = 4.05%

Domestic Services and Home Care Services = 4.02%

Medical Services and Paramedical Services = 3.86%

Passenger Transport by Railway = 3.85%

Milk, Cheese & Eggs = 3.80%

Fish = 3.47%

Restaurants and Cafes = 3.24%

Pets and Related Products = 3.24%

Canteens = 3.09%

Sugar, Jam, Honey, Syrups, Chocolate and Confectionary = 3.04%

Coffee, Tea, Cocoa = 3.04%

Repair of Household Appliances = 2.94%

Bread & Cereals = 2.71%

Furniture, Furnishings = 2.39%

Carpets & Other Floor Coverings = 2.25%

Spare Parts and Accessories = 2.20%

Meat = 2.03%

Non-Durable Household Goods = 1.93%

New Cars = 1.12%

Major Durables for In/Outdoor Recreation = 0.64%

Other Medical and Therapeutic Equipment = 0.50%

Wine (inc Perry) = 0.48%

Mineral Waters, Soft Drinks, Juices = 0.47%

Misc Printed Matter, Stationery and Drawing Materials = 0.28%

Fruit = 0.26%

Other Personal Effects = 0.00%

Spirits = -0.10%

Books = -0.32%

Jewellery, Clocks and Watches = -0.38%

Pharmaceutical Products = -0.56%

Insurance Connected with Transport = -0.72%

Food Products = -0.95%

Appliances, Articles and Products for Personal Care = -1.12%

Games, Toys and Hobbies = -1.14%

Other Articles of Clothing and Clothing Accessories = -1.20%

Vegetables Including Potatoes and Other Tubers = -1.27%

Package Holiday = -1.31%

Garden Plants and Flowers = -1.56%

Telephone and Telefax Equipment and Services = -1.62%

Insurance Connected with the Dwelling = -1.85%

Products for the Regular Repair of Dwelling = -1.95%

Beer = -2.61%

Major HH Appliances and Small Electrical HH Appliances = -2.62%

Second Hand Cars = -3.32%

Motorcycles and Bicycles = -3.34%

Oils & Fats = -4.94%

Recording Media = -5.28%

Garments = -5.53%

Equipment for Sport Camping and Open Air Recreation = -7.19%

Passenger Transort by Sea and Inland Waterway = -12.02%

Equipment for Sound and Picture = -16.63%

Information Processing Equipment = -17.17%

Photographic, Cinematographic and Optical Equipment = -26.81%

As we all know really - all of the discretionary spend is low inflation, all the stuff which is compulsary i.e you have no option if you are alive in the 21st century then inflation is rampant.

Never trust politicians, estate agents, independant financial advisers, and the inflation figures .......

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Dental Services = 4.66%

********, there has been a big exodus from NHS schemes last year and the private practices have been putting up their charges by 10/20%.

What else is miles off the mark?

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Guest Charlie The Tramp

No doubt it's all the hedonistic improvements from all those new superwhite veneers. :D

Like me then, 2 white fillings, 1 extraction, 1 descale, 1 clean, and 5 injections £480. Just 2 years ago the same treatment £275. Well you have to look after the nashers to attract the Ladies. :D

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Like me then, 2 white fillings, 1 extraction, 1 descale, 1 clean, and 5 injections £480. Just 2 years ago the same treatment £275. Well you have to look after the nashers to attract the Ladies. :D

how much!!!??!? :blink:

last time I had work done (about 2yrs ago) I got four fillings in all. I think it came to about £70 in all - on the NHS... benefit of using a dentist in a student ghetto... they have such a high turnover of patients you can always get onto the NHS list!

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Not going to repeat the list, but how many of these things do people actually buy on a regular basis. Flooring and carpet should last at least 6 years (more like 10 where I come from). It seems like a list for anorexic car boot junk junkies.

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how much!!!??!? :blink:

last time I had work done (about 2yrs ago) I got four fillings in all. I think it came to about £70 in all - on the NHS... benefit of using a dentist in a student ghetto... they have such a high turnover of patients you can always get onto the NHS list!

Pop into your local dentists surgery and check out the price list, you are in for a shock, at least you have been forewarned.

Like I said if the ONS are so far out on this figure which I know damn well to be an out and out lie what else are they manipulating out of the other stats - I suspect the food figure is another biggie.

Edited by OnlyMe

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Pop into your local dentists surgery and check out the price list, you are in for a shock, at least you have been forewarned.

Like I said if the ONS are so far out on this figure which I know damn well to be an out and out lie what else are they manipulating out of the other stats - I suspect the food figure is another biggie.

I think it would make economic sense for me to smash them all out with a small hammer and replace them all with gold (my house deposit)

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Hi,

6 months ago had a pretty big gold filling in a west end dental practice. £790 if you don't mind (would have been nearly half the cost if I had done it while in Canada. Had no choice about the Gold filling, apparantly gold is the only way to go for large ones, more malable or something to wear and tear). Still, gold is the hot investment at the moment.

And I notice this year that not only has the London bus ticket gone up 25%, tube ticket 50% but also my daily paper about 15%. And you know that harmonising the headline rate here with the EU is very convenient for Gordon given that the Uk has the highest average property costs per metre squared within the EU (source : ECB and FNAIM). So basically, even small rises in property prices within the UK will have a greater impact on UK household budgets than within the other EU nations. Even though probably Ireland are the only other EU nation to appraoch the rise in valuations that the UK has seen. It's all rigged but I am going to leave there for this evening.

Boomer

Edited by boom_and_bust

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Gotta love the ever objective and politically independent ONS and their thoughts on our economy, this exactly meshes with real life, the price of everyday commodities is really biting, I filled my car up this afternoon with a few gallon of strawberry juice and it was a real squeeze, the government will find themselves in a sticky situation if this continues, there will be protests! I'm not even going mention the price of orange juice!

No doubt it's all the hedonistic improvements from all those new superwhite veneers. :D

Not forgetting the weightings in the index, as prices rise people only have half the tooth repaired and whitened.

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Fruit..yeah well that makes sense;

you see

In summer they are £1 a punnet

in winter £5 per punnet

They dont f><><>g grow in January what do you expect??

Actually using hedonics they should be much more inflationary. Cornish summer strawbs taste fantastic, but in winter you have to pay more(inflation 1) for a worse product, water filled red blobs from polytunnels in the south of spain etc (hedonistic inflation 2).This of course can apply to many fruits and vegetables. Therefore fruit inflation is wildly understated.

We are a big supplier of strawbs and in fact have the best climate for them(ones with flavour anyway) in the whole of europe!!

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They obviously don't drink in my local!

Aside from August when the bankers were beaten down by the politicos I think Merv and his lot would add on something to the ONS figures - they have as much as said so. I trust the BOE to have a better understanding of service sector demand/pricing than the saddoes at the ONS. So if ONS say 2.3% BOE might say 2.5% hence their stance recently (Aug notwithstanding).

What would be interesting is the weighting of these items in the index. Something is amiss. It was in the 70s when the US and UK pulled all sorts out of the index for "volatility" reasons (eg oil prices will come back down etc). The VERY FACT that a nation is drowning in debt and consumers cannot afford to splash out when interest rates are at 40/50 year historic lows must say something!

All people say about the majority of economists in the 70s to defend them was that they could not have understood the long term effect of the quantum changes and external events going on at the time hence their misjudgements re inflation etc. The same will be true of these years. One day people will say "how could they have been so naive/shortsighted? oh well there was a hidden service secotr inflation masked by deflatioary oriental goods/manufacutring and poor modelling/statistical insight. Noones perfect".

Perfect point made: Discretionary items are cheap/low inflation. Essentials are sky high and going up.

Madness.

Edited by Tempest

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I work in the Office of National Health (sounds like NewSpeak doesn't it?) and if the Office of National Statistics (lies) is anything like it, then it won't know its @rse from its elbow.

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I work in the Office of National Health (sounds like NewSpeak doesn't it?) and if the Office of National Statistics (lies) is anything like it, then it won't know its @rse from its elbow.

Thats that place just along the road from the National Health Office isn't it? The one that does pretty much the same job but with a slightly different spin/socio-political aim? Same full salary pensions and perks natch.

Sigh.

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How did Jessops just report a bumper Christmas then?

Cost of a 4megapixel camera last year £200

Cost of a 4 megapixel cameral this year £150

Easy ;)

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amazing, essential items going up, non essential items going down.... Why dont they have an essential Price Index? EPI? The essential items increasing are going to effect the poorer more because they dont have any spare cash for non essential items!!!!

Edited by moosetea

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Dentistry is a scam.

Several times in my life I have got out of the habit (i.e. managed to escape the clutches) of visiting dentists. For periods of about 6 to 8 years. When I have finally gone due to toothache that would not go away I have had one fill-in and that's it. When you are hooked into the 6 monthly visit thing - they find something to do every other appointment.

Last time I went to the dentist he started to chastise me for not having been for years. I explained my theory. I can't say he agreed with me but from the wry smiles and lack of a counter argument I have a feeling he did not disagree. I must be up to about 4 years at the moment.

There's fluoride in the water, fluoride in the toothpaste. Regular brushing with an electric toothbrush is all you need. The only time I will visit in future is when one of my (probably unnecessary) fill-ins comes out.

They're all nuts these people - like Denplan for example. They think they can just whack the premiums up year after year and people will just keep paying them. I reckon I'm up about 4k since I stopped paying Denplan. As I said, it's a scam to make dentists (like Vets) millionaires. It's like car insurance. Why don't the insurerers control the price of repairs by refusing to pay the £100 an hour that garage A wants and only giving work to garage B at £75 an hour. Likewise with dentists.

What's this got to do with house prices? I can now afford to pay more for a house?

amazing, essential items going up, non essential items going down.... Why dont they have an essential Price Index? EPI? The essential items increasing are going to effect the poorer more because they dont have any spare cash for non essential items!!!!

Indeed. You realise one day I think that it was ever so and will ever be so.

In a capitalist system it is impossible for it to be any other way. It doesn't matter what anyone does for a living - what business idea they come up - how good they are at it etc - there is always someone who will do it cheaper - and possibly better. The nature of a (developed) capitalist system is downward pressure on prices and, consequently, downward pressure on wages. Throw in globalization - and particularly the provision of services (as opposed to goods) from one country to another and you have a recipe for an ever worsening polarization between haves and have-nots.

When you throw a huge number of items into the pot like tax, council tax, gas, electricity, water rates and food (which does not always obey the rules) - the poor are definitely going to get poorer.

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My method: eat mainly raw vegetables, floss and brush after eating anything else, fast if you are not hungry or feel peaky until you are hungry.

I've not been to a dentist since 1995. No problems, in fact just last night someone complemented me on how perfect my teeth were whilst watching a makevover programme about horrible veneers. The few fillings I did have are falling out over time, but the holes the dentist left don't seem to cause any pain - in fact I could swear they are filling in/remineralising - although that could just be my brain getting accustomed to their existence.

Here's an interesting link on the subject of healing teeth naturally (click).

EDIT: One more thing - within ten years we will be able to routinely grow new teeth using technology. In twenty years our current methods will look as barbarous as Elizabethan wooden dentures. I intend to hold out until then, if nothing else.

anyone who seeks to characterise this board as full of pessimists, apocalypts and doom-mongers would do very well to take a close look at Durch's posts. Now there's a man with a bright gleaming vision of the future, and I don't just mean his teeth.

My Dad hasn't been to the dentist since 1976, and seems to be doing ok. I didn't go between 93 and 03 when one of my fillings fell out and I eventually relented. I immediately got filled four times, had one more "all-clear" check up and then ran away to London before they could mine more dosh from my teeth. And I drank, smoked and ate enough chocolate to fuel a jogger to Jupiter. For the record, I have lovely fragrant breath - although I have since quit smoking and drinking.

One could always try dentistry schools. You get free attention and there is a reasonable chance that you may have an attractive young female student dentist poking around your gob. Not necessarily good circumstances to ask her out, admittedly.

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
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      • Even
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      • up 5%



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