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Leodhasach

Interest Rates Vs. Unemployment

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These two factors seem to pull against each other a little. Some people see high street gloom and job cuts as a big trigger - but these things also make IR cuts much more likely. So which has bigger implications for house prices - a 100K increase in unemployment or a .5% rise in the base rate?

Another question for the experts - does the fact that a much larger portion of the housing stock is now in the hands of BTLers rather than owner-occupiers make forced sales less likely in times of economic hardship? For instance, if you were a BTLer who was made redundant, is it likely you would want to sell your BTL house if it was tennanted, and those tennants were covering the mortgage...?

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These two factors seem to pull against each other a little. Some people see high street gloom and job cuts as a big trigger - but these things also make IR cuts much more likely. So which has bigger implications for house prices - a 100K increase in unemployment or a .5% rise in the base rate?

If you are unemployed with debts a job is more important.

If you are still in a s job, interest rates are more important.

Sorry for the sideways answer but probably an answer that best describes the situation. However there is no way on eacrth prices would be where they are now if the bubble heads had not dropped rates to extreme levels to "save" the economy. They failed miserably and have merely imperiled it further, together iwith 100'000's of addiotional jobs.

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These two factors seem to pull against each other a little. Some people see high street gloom and job cuts as a big trigger - but these things also make IR cuts much more likely. So which has bigger implications for house prices - a 100K increase in unemployment or a .5% rise in the base rate?

Another question for the experts - does the fact that a much larger portion of the housing stock is now in the hands of BTLers rather than owner-occupiers make forced sales less likely in times of economic hardship? For instance, if you were a BTLer who was made redundant, is it likely you would want to sell your BTL house if it was tennanted, and those tennants were covering the mortgage...?

firstly you will most likely need both for a crash...

and secondly a BTL would sell if he had major positive equity as he could just retire early... ;) specially with the massive prices that are being acheived... NOT... lol

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These two factors seem to pull against each other a little. Some people see high street gloom and job cuts as a big trigger - but these things also make IR cuts much more likely. So which has bigger implications for house prices - a 100K increase in unemployment or a .5% rise in the base rate?

Another question for the experts - does the fact that a much larger portion of the housing stock is now in the hands of BTLers rather than owner-occupiers make forced sales less likely in times of economic hardship? For instance, if you were a BTLer who was made redundant, is it likely you would want to sell your BTL house if it was tennanted, and those tennants were covering the mortgage...?

First point - there are no experts on this site - only deluded, introverts who sit at home typing furiously but desperately wanting themselves to get heard by all the other nerd heads on here ..........

.......... anyway ...... I reckon you need a lot of extra unemployment to get a price crash, I reckon you could trade 0.1% rate rise with an extra 100k of unemployment to get the desired result.

So for me, I think you need 1% increase in interest rates or an extra 1 million unemployed - neither are on the horizon, so my advice is forget about being a nerd head and go to the pub !

:D

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First point - there are no experts on this site - only deluded, introverts who sit at home typing furiously but desperately wanting themselves to get heard by all the other nerd heads on here ..........

.......... anyway ...... I reckon you need a lot of extra unemployment to get a price crash, I reckon you could trade 0.1% rate rise with an extra 100k of unemployment to get the desired result.

So for me, I think you need 1% increase in interest rates or an extra 1 million unemployed - neither are on the horizon, so my advice is forget about being a nerd head and go to the pub !

:D

Well feck off down there then - you hipocritical nerd.

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No doubt you are dictating this above the noise of the party. :D

Clearly you spotted the satire in my few words ....... unlike bubble turbo !

Yep, I might not be a bear, but I must be one of the nerd heads, otherwise I'd be somewhere else. Some people take this all too seriously man !

:D

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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