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Realistbear

Oil Imports Fuel Record Trade Gap

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http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/4601442.stm

Surging oil imports have propelled Britain's trade deficit with the rest of the world up faster than expected, to a new record for November.

"It's a shocking number, much worse than expectations," said Philip Shaw, economist at Investec.

Despite denial it looks like IR are headed up up and away. This may be the nail in HPC's coffin.

Edited by Realistbear

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And so will your rent.....

Even if the rent goes up by a little, the morgage payments would go up by more = more negative cashflow = stampede of the muppet (not you) BTL brigade, who got into it in 2003/2004.

TTRTR, I have been looking on rightmore this morning and I am seeing a huge amount of new property, a lot of which seems to have "no onward chain"/"no chain".

A few of them are also empty in the photos - voids??

How are rents gonna go up if some landlords are having voids at the moment??

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And so will your rent.....

Rents are capped by affordability factors (unlike House prices where easy credit abounds) and an economy headed into recession may afford limited scope for upward revisions in rent.

I am watching the Surrey area (possible move there) and saw 810 rental properties available in the Walton Area last week. This week there are 835.

http://www.findaproperty.com/regi0019.html

There are approximately 2,500 properties for rent in the general area encompassing Weybridge, Byfleet, Walton and Virginia Water. This is a huge amount of unlet property and its growing weekly. And this is just one website.

Edited by Realistbear

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Wow

The trade gap in goods and services widened to £5.96bn ($10.45bn) from a deficit of £5.05bn in October, said the Office for National Statistics (ONS).

That's +20%. Anyone who thinks we can afford to import oil and gas as the North Sea depletes is kidding themselves!

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Don’t get me wrong as I am not a expert (or know anything in this matter) but

I thought the government wanted to devalue the pound to help exports + the pound has lost quite a lot to the $ already – I remember when it was almost 2$ to £1 and this change has not made any difference to us? How low will it go?

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I thought the government wanted to devalue the pound to help exports

They might, but that's suicidal for a country which imports far more than it exports. A 'strong' pound is far more useful to us.

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I tell ya what - the day that rates do go up again (which I suspect will occur sooner rather than later this year) will be marked with an orgasmic explosion of joy on this board... which will be very amusing, if a little disproportionate

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I tell ya what - the day that rates do go up again (which I suspect will occur sooner rather than later this year) will be marked with an orgasmic explosion of joy on this board... which will be very amusing, if a little disproportionate

The US rates are going up in part to counter their dreadful deficit making it all the more likely that the UK will have to follow suit. After all, we followed Al Greenspan on the way down with rates and will have to follow the US up. The IR hike, when it comes, will undoubtedly strike a deadly blow at HPC and will send shockwaves further and deeper than the dramatic U-turn over Sipps.

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if Iran is alowed to sell oil in euro's after March this year then the USD$ will tank and the GBP£ will go down too.

BoE up's the IR or the pound goes down just like Blair want's and it's that simple

£1.00=1.10eu anyone

or

£1.00=1.46eu and IR's at 8%

take your pick

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if Iran is alowed to sell oil in euro's after March this year then the USD$ will tank and the GBP£ will go down too.

Depends what you mean by 'down'. I think it's more likely that the result of oil sales in Euros would be that the Euro would go up against other currencies than that the pound would drop against them.

Not that I have any faith in the pound, but I don't see why Euro oil sales would cause it to lose more value than it's already losing day by day.

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And so will your rent.....

What a stupid comment. TTRTT is conceding defeat though on the IR issue. As I've said many times the next movement in IRs is up.

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Clearly *at some stage* the BoE will have to step in to protect the £. As oil is sold in US$ and maybe € then if the pound flakes against these then this will only exacerbate the rises in fuel costs which is already causing much squealing.

Although of course, protecting the £ does not form part of the BoE's remit, I suppose they could dress it up as a pre-emptive strike against inflationary pressures.

What is certain is that the vice-like grip that circumstances have on the BoE is tightening every month, which is why I err toward a no change decision until their hand is forced by things going mammaries perpendicular somewhere along the line. Paralysed by fear and purely reactive, just like most bureaucrats (and indeed people?) across the globe.

The same groups begging for lower IRs are now also squealing about high oil/gas prices. I doubt that they are aware of the inate paradox.

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Even if the rent goes up by a little, the morgage payments would go up by more = more negative cashflow = stampede of the muppet (not you) BTL brigade, who got into it in 2003/2004.

TTRTR, I have been looking on rightmore this morning and I am seeing a huge amount of new property, a lot of which seems to have "no onward chain"/"no chain".

A few of them are also empty in the photos - voids??

How are rents gonna go up if some landlords are having voids at the moment??

Yes previously tenanted properties are usually sold vacant, hence the photo's.

As I have pointed out many times in the past, a place doesn't need to be sold to be removed from the rental market. It simply needs to be taken off the rental market for another reason (to be put up for sale for example). This has an immediate impact on the availability of rental property and therefore puts pressure on rents.

We are in a lull at the moment, because IR's haven't risen as much as expected 2 years ago, but mark my words that if they were to rise beyond what's expected (not much in that dept just now) your rent rise will hit your doorstep very quickly.

Edited by Time to raise the rents.

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What a stupid comment. TTRTT is conceding defeat though on the IR issue. As I've said many times the next movement in IRs is up.

he's just being mean and spiteful, don't sweat it. The clue is in the name.

one trick pony. :P

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he's just being mean and spiteful, don't sweat it. The clue is in the name.

one trick pony. :P

Yes you're right, of course. It wound me up a little to see UK PLC sinking with all this horrendous economic data and all this guy can say is that rents are going up?? As far as I can see, IRs are on the way up and house prices, rents, employment, standard of living is on the way down.

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Wow

That's +20%. Anyone who thinks we can afford to import oil and gas as the North Sea depletes is kidding themselves!

But in Japan . . . . . . .

"As Japan is almost entirely dependent on imports of oil, gas, non-ferrous metals and minerals, securing a stable supply of such natural resources is of paramount importance to Japan."

Why is JAPAN "stockpiling" - whilst the UK flounders around in it's death throes under present leadership??

"JOGMEC will also assume responsibility for the management of the national stockpiling of crude oil, LPG and rare metals and support activities to control mine pollution, both of which will contribute to a better quality of life in Japan."

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I thought the government wanted to devalue the pound to help exports + the pound has lost quite a lot to the $ already -- I remember when it was almost 2$ to £1 and this change has not made any difference to us? [look to the past]

This is most likely due to the J-Curve effect.&

Edited by Jeff Ross

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But in Japan . . . . . . .

Why is JAPAN "stockpiling" - whilst the UK flounders around in it's death throes under present leadership??

The future?

To smooth out future price and supply fluctuations?

Or just better Boy Scouts?

I do drive a Japanese built car so perhaps I'm biased.

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The future?

To smooth out future price and supply fluctuations?

Or just better Boy Scouts?

I do drive a Japanese built car so perhaps I'm biased.

I would say "the very near future"

Accidental 'spilling of the rice grains' by Japan's leaders?

Do they already know there will soon be 'shortages' and minerals will get too costly to extract and transport?

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I would say "the very near future"

Accidental 'spilling of the rice grains' by Japan's leaders?

Do they already know there will soon be 'shortages' and minerals will get too costly to extract and transport?

Oh I don't think we have to worry, afterall this country and it's leaders are so respected on the World stage that I'm sure other countries won't let us go short.

I'm correct am I not?

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And so will your rent.....

Keep saying it enough times and, eventually, people will believe it?

I keep staring at a 4 bed detached in the local agent's window - on the market now since I was looking to move back in the summer - still unlet. I went in to enquire the other day, just out of curiousity, to make sure it is still unlet. Guess what the agent said. 'The landlord is putting the rent up on that one as he thinks it is too cheap!'

NOT!

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Oh I don't think we have to worry, afterall this country and it's leaders are so respected on the World stage that I'm sure other countries won't let us go short.

I'm correct am I not?

Ahhhhhhh now you're talking!

The "World Stage" - "G7", "G8"

Shakespeare - All the World's a Stage!

7 Stages

All the World's a stage,

And all the men and women merely players:

They have their exits and their entrances;

And one man in his time plays many parts,

His acts being seven ages. At first the infant,

Mewling and puking in the nurse's arms.

And then the whining school-boy, with his satchel

And shining morning face, creeping like snail

Unwillingly to school. And then the lover,

Sighing like furnace, with a woeful ballad

Made to his mistress' eyebrow. Then a soldier,

Full of strange oaths and bearded like the pard,

Jealous in honour, sudden and quick in quarrel,

Seeking the bubble reputation

Even in the cannon's mouth. And then the justice,

In fair round belly with good capon lined,

With eyes severe and beard of formal cut,

Full of wise saws and modern instances;

And so he plays his part. The sixth age shifts

Into the lean and slipper'd pantaloon,

With spectacles on nose and pouch on side,

His youthful hose, well saved, a world too wide

For his shrunk shank; and his big manly voice,

Turning again toward childish treble, pipes

And whistles in his sound. Last scene of all,

That ends this strange eventful history,

Is second childishness and mere oblivion,

Sans teeth, sans eyes, sans taste, sans everything.

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TTRTR

Er. You can't raise rents if interest rates go up unless all the other landlords are doing the same. As highly leveraged landlords control a relatively small proportion of the housing stock this is unlikely. Until then tenants can simply move to cheaper accommodation owned by less highly geared landlords who can suck it up. Rents may increase marginally upwards, but tenants can probably take the pain for longer than landlords can stay solvent with empty properties. Besides, tenants are sticky. The can just sit tight and let the landlord crawl through the courts to have them evicted. On the other hand Banks can foreclose with ferocity.

Of course, al bets are off if Landlords are able "en masse" to pass on the interest rate rises. In that case yields would remain the same and property prices would indeed be protected. In short, we would be heading back to a semi-fuedal landlord/tenant relationship.... Except for one key point. It could never happen. If rents were to rise massively wage demands would also rise, wage settlements would increase, and all of this would feed through into secondary inflation drivers. The very thing that the BOE said they'd raise interest rates to prevent.

So, who's more likely to win the fight, the BOE or the landlords? Feeling lucky?

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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