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Xil

Marks And Spencer Results Confirm Recession Ahead

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.....well, to me they preempt a recession on the way.

I was glad to see many of the retailers did okay at Christmas. The last thing I wanted to see was a clamour for a cut in the interest rate.

On the face of it, Marks and Spencer did okay. However, the breakdown of their sales shows a disproportionate amount of growth was attributed to food (as opposed to only small changes in clothing and household).

Why is this important?

When people start spending more money on food (even 'luxury' food) at the expense of electricals, clothing, household etc. then it is a sure sign of recession.

Small indulgences on food items help to lift the gloom of crippling debts, job fears, housing market fears.

I expect to see the chocolate manufacturers do rather well for the next few years. They generally prosper in a recession.

Xil.

Edited by Xil

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.....well, to me they prempt a recession on the way.

I was glad to see many of the retailers did okay at Christmas. The last thing I wanted to see was a clamour for a cut in the interest rate.

On the face of it, Marks and Spencer did okay. However, the breakdown of their sales shows a disproportionate amount of growth was attributed to food (as opposed to only small changes in clothing and household).

Why is this important?

When people start spending more money on food (even 'luxury' food) at the expense of electricals, clothing, household etc. then it is a sure sign of recession.

Small indulgences on food items help to lift the gloom of crippling debts, job fears, housing market fears.

I expect to see the chocolate manufacturers do rather well for the next few years. They generally prosper in a recession.

Xil.

sorry to disappoint you

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...58&hl=thorntons

:(

Edited by Allthatglitters

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I also have under the radar information from an employee that a choclate factory in the uk may be closing because it is un profitable to run it in the uk (the plan is to turn into flats)

Edited by moosetea

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It's early days, nobody has proved we are in recession.....yet.

When the money supply restrictions start to bite, and the job losses start to come, then I would expect to see people endulge their remaining pennies on low cost, luxury items such as Thorntons chocolates.

I also have under the radar information from an employee that a choclate factory in the uk may be closing because it is un profitable to run it in the uk (the plan is to turn into flats)

As with all manufacturing, it is cheaper to make it overseas and fly it on a first class, refrigerated ticket. It won't help our rising jobless figures but it also won't hurt the multinational confectionary manufacturers. Their shares will still react to increased sales even if the chocolate is made in Argentina.

Xil.

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I find it amaazing to read posts like this and yet hear complaints of VI spin from the BBC etc. :(

I agree, pretty tenuous. Straws & clutching anyone? and I'm a bear.

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I find it amaazing to read posts like this and yet hear complaints of VI spin from the BBC etc. :(

If you are amaazed at me then perhaps I should point out that I'm not the UK's public service broadcaster with a licence income of £3 Billion.

I'm an individual, with an opinion. I don't think my statement will bring the country to its knees. However I remember seeing a similar trend during previous recessions.

I'm looking for signs of a recession looming, because they really hurt people. I see this as a sign.

Xil.

Edit. With hindsight, this topic should have been started in the Financial Markets discussion forum.

Edited by Xil

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I agree, pretty tenuous. Straws & clutching anyone? and I'm a bear.

I think every press snippet is just day to day, month to month noise. I don't care what one retailler did over a 4 week period. The longer term picture is much clearer but we won't be able to see it 24 hours a day.

I spend my time on HPC.co.uk trying to get my head around concepts such as why burning my money and having my house wash away by a Tsunami means I don't lose any wealth.

These are the real issues. :)

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As with any statistic - you have to look beyond the numbers, and can spin them any way you want.

My spin - M&S had an abysmal 2004, were falling apart at the seams, miscalculated Xmas stock etc. This year they are into the recovery, have grown their number of dedicated food outlest substantially, and had a strong advertising campaign - so a YoY increase is hardly a measure of a strong retail recovery. It's more a sign that M&S has at long last reversed its decline.

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As with any statistic - you have to look beyond the numbers, and can spin them any way you want.

My spin - M&S had an abysmal 2004, were falling apart at the seams, miscalculated Xmas stock etc. This year they are into the recovery, have grown their number of dedicated food outlest substantially, and had a strong advertising campaign - so a YoY increase is hardly a measure of a strong retail recovery. It's more a sign that M&S has at long last reversed its decline.

exactly. which is why the release today was greeted with a fall in the share price.

we have travelled this far over easy ground. now its time to bag some profits. cause the going will get tougher.

harder comparatives to beat going forward as the crap numbers drop out and a tough uk macro/retail background to deal with.

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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