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Jason

Nationwide - Quarterly Review - Q4 2005

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Nice to see house prices in Tony Blair's Sedgefield constituency fell 10% last year :D

From the North Regional report:

Durham -12.6%

Wear Valley n/a

Easington -9.4%

Sedgefield -10.0%

Derwentside -10.7%

Chester-le-Street -12.6%

Edited by Riser

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Hey not bad, in the south west mortgage payments only take up 57% of the salary.

So if you take home £1000 you have awhole £330 to pay all council tax, water, electricity, car, savings. Thank f*ck for credit cards ey.

Edited by theChuz

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Hey not bad, in the south west mortgage payments only take up 57% of the salary.

So if you take home £1000 you have awhole £330 to pay all council tax, water, electricity, car, savings. Thank f*ck for credit cards ey.

Affordability improves in 2005

Affordability for first time buyers in

the West Midlands region improved in 2005,

eating up 47% of take home pay compared to

49% this time last year. This is similar to affordability levels in 1991.

How they manage to produce a bullish spin in their headlines is beyond me.

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I am beginning to wonder if I am losing my marbles.

I have looked carefully at the Nationwide index and reviewed their methodology - for the first time. What they say is completely at odds with what is happening in the local market.

If prices are still rising in my area, why are developers slashing prices on flats and new build houses? Why are properties taking up to a year to sell? Why are the papers full of houses with Price Reduced written across them?

I would love to know if this is a cold, deliberate manipulation of the figures. Their methodology allows them to exclude properties they think do not conform to some criterion or other. Do they review houses and think 'that 3 bed detached went for 275k - that's cheap - there must be something wrong with it - we'll exclude it. - Look there is a 3 bed detached that went for 335k - that's more like it - we'll include that.'

I wouldn't normally question someone like the Nationwide, but their data is so at odds with the local market, I simply cannot believe it.

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I am beginning to wonder if I am losing my marbles.

I have looked carefully at the Nationwide index and reviewed their methodology - for the first time. What they say is completely at odds with what is happening in the local market.

If prices are still rising in my area, why are developers slashing prices on flats and new build houses? Why are properties taking up to a year to sell? Why are the papers full of houses with Price Reduced written across them?

I would love to know if this is a cold, deliberate manipulation of the figures. Their methodology allows them to exclude properties they think do not conform to some criterion or other. Do they review houses and think 'that 3 bed detached went for 275k - that's cheap - there must be something wrong with it - we'll exclude it. - Look there is a 3 bed detached that went for 335k - that's more like it - we'll include that.'

I wouldn't normally question someone like the Nationwide, but their data is so at odds with the local market, I simply cannot believe it.

Its probably down to volume.

Nationwide and halifax both report what i consider to be a substantial increase mom, im suprised we havnt had a kickin from TTRTR yet.

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First-time buyers wishing to get onto the ladder by buying a flat in the South West face an average purchase price

of £114,842. Assuming a 90% loan was available, that would require raising a deposit of almost £11,500. To obtain a loan of 90% of the value would require an income multiple of 4.8, based on average gross earnings in the

South West of £21,617 in Q4 2005.

Quite funny really, still at x4.8 with a 10% deposit of £11,500 , so if you save £1000 a month you could save up the deposit you'd need in a year. I dont know anyone that saved anything like 11.5K at a FTB'r deposit and thats without legal, survey fee's etc.

So you need to save more like £15K before you can consider buying a 1 bedroom place which you will probably outgrow quicker than what it took you to save the deposit.

On average earnings (would FTB'rs be on less than average earnings?) you would bring home

£1362 per month

So the chances of saving £1000 per month for 15 months is pretty slim.

£750 per month? about 20 months savings

£650 per month? about 23 months savings

£550 per month? about 27 months savings - i would imagine that about £500 a month would be about right if you brought home £1362 and saved/budgeted well.

So 2 years and 3 months of saving and budgetting and you should have enough to move into your very own bedsit.

Dont think though that you can stop scrimping and saving, the mortgage per month is over what you've been saving anyways and now you have the added 'owner' expenses

Im just glad that its always been hard :lol:

Oh hopefully prices wont rise while your trying to save for the deposit otherwise your f*cked. I wouldnt be thinking of kids just yet either.

Oh well.

Edited by theChuz

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Here we go: http://www.nationwide.co.uk/hpi/review.htm

The headline figure was 3.1% YoY, 1.5% MoM.

Note: I'm reasonably happy that my area has fallen 4.6% (East Hampshire)

On the London one, I'm annoyed that they talk about city bonuses and the Olympics providing upward pressure, conveniently ignoring the possibility of higher taxes, inflation (price, not wage) and job losses providing downward pressure. I do note that they basiaclly expect zero growth this year, even given their "upward pressures" - a few years of that and we'll all be fine!

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I am beginning to wonder if I am losing my marbles.

I have looked carefully at the Nationwide index and reviewed their methodology - for the first time. What they say is completely at odds with what is happening in the local market.

If prices are still rising in my area, why are developers slashing prices on flats and new build houses? Why are properties taking up to a year to sell? Why are the papers full of houses with Price Reduced written across them?

I would love to know if this is a cold, deliberate manipulation of the figures. Their methodology allows them to exclude properties they think do not conform to some criterion or other. Do they review houses and think 'that 3 bed detached went for 275k - that's cheap - there must be something wrong with it - we'll exclude it. - Look there is a 3 bed detached that went for 335k - that's more like it - we'll include that.'

I wouldn't normally question someone like the Nationwide, but their data is so at odds with the local market, I simply cannot believe it.

There is this:

"Actual average house prices are lower even though the quarterly index shows a rise because of seasonal adjustment. It reflects that prices in the fourth quarter increased by more than we would have expected them to given the seasonal pattern in prices."

Where's TTRTR? His portfolio has risen 0.7% in the last year... Hurray!!!

Are we all ready for the spin tomorrow??? (Edit: Spin about another pointless report)

Edited by Jason

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There is this:

"Actual average house prices are lower even though the quarterly index shows a rise because of seasonal adjustment. It reflects that prices in the fourth quarter increased by more than we would have expected them to given the seasonal pattern in prices."

Where's TTRTR? His portfolio has risen 0.7% in the last year... Hurray!!!

Are we all ready for the spin tomorrow??? (Edit: Spin about another pointless report)

Yus, after I STR I did not invest in BTL but put proceeds in a broad range of mutual funds and enjoyed a 16% average return in 2005--15.3% better than BTL it seems! I suspect City Bonuses ended up in the stockmarkets around the world (Japan is looking very good for 2006) where returns are many many times BTL investments that are still giving negative returns in the hope of continued 20% p.a. appreciation continuing for the next 5 years!

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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