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Please Read... First Time Buyers

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http://www.naea.co.uk/the_naea/general_pub...id=202&PageNo=1

Fabulous...

FTB's down to 7%...

Sipps is gone..

and BTL? well take a look at your area, rental return against cost.. and the local voids.. This varies accross the country..

but who the hell is buying at the FTB end..???

The point which struck me was that ftb's were down from 8.4 to 7% - a huge fall. I'm sure that some of the 7% were of the BTL variety as well.

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why the suprise. if you in your 20s or early 30s with a normal job (not city professional) then you cant buy one which ever way you cut the cake. even if you go for the lowest hanging fruit.

its just not possible to buy a 150k house while earning 16k.

(NW example)

if i can quote billy ocean:

when the going gets tough.

the tough get going going ga going.

tuff tuff. who-ha ha.

when the going gets tough.

the tough get ready doo dayo.

tuff tuff. who-ha ha.

Edited by right_freds_dead

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But hey, the fundamentals for the housing market are still strong, blah, blah, blah...

SEVEN PER CENT!!!

That is just plain comedy now. This is just one long nightmare. I will wake up, eventually...

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The point which struck me was that ftb's were down from 8.4 to 7% - a huge fall. I'm sure that some of the 7% were of the BTL variety as well.

Indeed, and how much is 'fresh equity' anyway? Given that the average FTB age is 34 it's reasonable to assume that a lot of people classed as FTB'ers are actually just cash buyers returning to the market ('returners'), or buying with money MEW'ed by parents (the 'borrowers'). Some may even be BTL'ers being cheeky with the lenders by obtaining standard mortgages.

Whilst repatriating money back into the market is always good it doesn't solve the basic problem of any pyramid scheme, which is the eternal requirement for ever increasing amounts of new money into the system, recycling isn't enough.

The report [written by CML researchers Jackie Smith and Bob Parnell] also identified a group of first-time buyers, which it dubbed returners, who had actually owned a property before but temporarily left the market, often as a result of relationship breakdowns.

It said these people accounted for around 20% of first-time buyers, and often used money from a property they had previously owned for a deposit.

So even taking the CML's own figures at face value the true FTB figures are more like 5.6%, that's because you take out additional misclassifications and updated data. This is down from a longterm historical average of 50%, you cannot sustain with such low levels. I doubt the government attempting to prop up the market with shared ownership and public money will solve anything. People might as well just start swapping homes between each other using monopoly money, if we have an artificial market they might as well be honest about it.

spin.png

Edited by BuyingBear

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Spin

RICS

75wheelspin.jpg

Not only do you quote me in your tag line, but then you show my favourite car..

The alfa 75..

See hoe ugly it is...? that just made it better... mine was black with the veloce body kit so looked a little better.

But importantly it was a 30 v6 with rear wheel drive, a limited slip diff and 50/50 weight distribution.. and weighed less then an mr2

mine was a 1989 model.. ran it from the age of 22 to 29 and...

you could get the back end out at 30 miles an hour.. giggles? I never got bored...

ugly? yes but it would pull away from a porche boxter :) those were the days...

back to the figures...

No sipps.

FTB's down to 7% of the market and BTL's loosing money at today's prices...

Glad the market is looking good...

spin works, the bbc support it..

If spin did span it would be higher then 7%...

if it was affordable it would be higher then 7%....

that article re-assured me that its all going pete tong for those in the property game

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Not only do you quote me in your tag line, but then you show my favourite car..

The alfa 75..

See hoe ugly it is...? that just made it better... mine was black with the veloce body kit so looked a little better.

But importantly it was a 30 v6 with rear wheel drive, a limited slip diff and 50/50 weight distribution.. and weighed less then an mr2

mine was a 1989 model.. ran it from the age of 22 to 29 and...

you could get the back end out at 30 miles an hour.. giggles? I never got bored...

ugly? yes but it would pull away from a porche boxter :) those were the days...

Back to the cars, bit older than you but the Cortina and the coppers` black Zodiac in Life on Mars last night on BBC were excellent, woth paying the license fee for <_<

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http://www.naea.co.uk/the_naea/general_pub...id=202&PageNo=1

Fabulous...

FTB's down to 7%...

Sipps is gone..

and BTL? well take a look at your area, rental return against cost.. and the local voids.. This varies accross the country..

but who the hell is buying at the FTB end..???

FTB's at 7% - that is incredible to be fair when the historical average is, what, 50%?

How come that is never reported in the news?!

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Is it because property is "unaffordable", or is it

because it is "undesireable at current prices".

I think the later

As a potential "returning FTBer", i can offer...

two fat fingers, to those who want to sell me a property or finance it.

The real question is what merits do BTLers find in these low-yield assets?

I live in Devon, a friend is renting a house with her mum.. a four bed town house.. a new build..

You can tell there are three power points in each room and no telly or phone connection..

She was moaning that she was having to pay £1000 to rent it... and had been able to get over a hundred of it..

she did not understand when I used the phrase..

Thats nice of them...!

The property was about £380,000

I showed them the maths..

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FTB's at 7% - that is incredible to be fair when the historical average is, what, 50%?

How come that is never reported in the news?!

What is that in % terms? I don`t mean simplistically 43% down, what is the fall from 50-7%, 400% down or something? How grim can it be made to appear? Head Hurts please help :huh:

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It's %age of transactions. 7% of transactions made by FTBs. Obviously you really need to know the volume figures as well.

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The answer is 1-(7/50)=0.86 or in english: the share of FTBs is 86% down (from a 50% share to a 7% share). (Percentages are always less exciting on the way down - unless you're a bear.) :lol:

Cheers Durch. First time buyers down 86% since their peak purchasing power reads bearish enough for me. Daily Mail headline tomorrow? :P Live in hope. ;)

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It's %age of transactions. 7% of transactions made by FTBs. Obviously you really need to know the volume figures as well.

quite - because its 7% of a low volume aswell. IE the FTB is as good as extinct. In fact, the Chinese have been trying in vain to breed them in captivity for decades...

more spin than a Shane Warne leg-break pitched in the rough on a subcontinental turner.

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So given the very low volumes overall, FTBs by number are down by over 90% on what they should be. :unsure:

If true then this must be the surest proof ever of an impending crash

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Quote

"Moving into 2006, the NAEA urges the Government to put first time buyers at the top of its agenda. It will need to carefully review its policies on stamp duty and inheritance tax in order to give first timers the best chance of success."

Anything other then a fall in prices. I've got a word for these people and it begins with a "C" <_<

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The answer is 1-(7/50)=0.86 or in english: the share of FTBs is 86% down (from a 50% share to a 7% share). (Percentages are always less exciting on the way down - unless you're a bear.) :lol:

It's actually more like 89% because the CML themselves admit that 20% of people classified as FTB'ers are actually "returners".

Also, if we adjusted for the low volumes we'd be north of 100%.

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Is it because property is "unaffordable", or is it

because it is "undesireable at current prices".

I think the later

As a potential "returning FTBer", i can offer...

two fat fingers, to those who want to sell me a property or finance it.

The real question is what merits do BTLers find in these low-yield assets?

Come on Dr Bubb that is spin you are not a FTB (even if you prepend returning). You a cash rich STR (nothing wrong with that) and property for real FTB's is unaffordable.

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Also, if we adjusted for the low volumes we'd be north of 100%.

What low volumes? You're a bit behind the times. Volumes were low in the first half of 2005, picked up over the summer, and were high from September onwards. The most up-to-date stats are the ones provided by the Inland Revenue here (PDF).

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What low volumes? You're a bit behind the times. Volumes were low in the first half of 2005, picked up over the summer, and were high from September onwards. The most up-to-date stats are the ones provided by the Inland Revenue here (PDF).

Jolly good.

It's a perfectly functioning market then, FTB'ers are 5.6% an falling, who need 'em?

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ANyone know of BTL %?

I know one BTL - first name - Brian - from Castell Newydd Emlyn on the Teifi who has been busy buying up BTL properties in Carms - WHYYYYYYYYYYYYYY? has over 70 already!

Spoke to a Llanelli EA about this the other day - he couldn't believe the BTL brigade's stupidity either - nor could a local builder who was selling to BTLs - winked as he told me they were counting on ongoing property price rises. The EA mentioned that many investors weren't even looking at the returns - just buying their 'pension' (he really thought these people were total jerks!).

As thick as pig****!

Edited by gruffydd

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ANyone know of BTL %?

I know one BTL - first name - Brian - from Castell Newydd Emlyn on the Teifi who has been busy buying up BTL properties in Carms - WHYYYYYYYYYYYYYY? has over 70 already!

Spoke to a Llanelli EA about this the other day - he couldn't believe the BTL brigade's stupidity either - nor could a local builder who was selling to BTLs - winked as he told me they were counting on ongoing property price rises. The EA mentioned that many investors weren't even looking at the returns - just buying their 'pension' (he really thought these people were total jerks!).

As thick as pig****!

This market ends with BTLers selling property to each other at higher and higher prices with no one actually living in them until the banks lose their nerve and it will all come down to Earth with a loud bang.

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  • 302 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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