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A late entrance..

First Family Hpc Discussion....

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Well, the HPC argument cherry got popped round at my brothers last night as he looks (albeit casually) for another house.

His situation:

He's 29 and a chef - earns less than £20k with no prospects of any wage increases (morelikely to take a drop if he moves). Bought a 3 bed semi with g/f back in 1999 for £46k and spent another £20k (of our mom's money!) doing it up as it was a wreck.

His (now) wife works part time in an insurance company call centre for peanuts whilst mother-in-law looks after two children (3 and 10 months). Wife is demanding, constantly looking at houses/holidays etc.

They want to move up the ladder as the 3rd bedroom won't be big enough for the baby when he needs a full size bed, the fact that this won't be for another 5 years doesn't seem to dampen their justification.

I gave the full spiel to him last night citing our childhood house as an example as it has just come on the market (£30k less than in 2004 I might add).

He is adamant that despite the fact that he has been witnessing falls in our area, prices will not go down much further..... why?

"They just won't, the government won't allow it!"

Another thing - I explained that our entire generation had that opinion due to the fact that we were kids when the last crash was happening.

"There was a crash? Oh, I didn't know that" :blink:

He's not the sharpest tool in the shed, and neither is his wife, but this just blew me away - and they want to add another £40k onto their existing mortgage, when they live hand-to-mouth as it is (albeit overpaying the mortgage £100 a month). His wife won't be working full-time for at least another 6-7 years and has little earning potential anyway.

I now understand the frustration despite the fact that he seemed to absorb some of the information I was putting infront of him.

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See the stones coming at my window

Ever since then I've not been conscious

to all the chains of dirt passed onto me

Rubicon it's almost over

Rubicon has come so close to me

Turn back or we'll start the fire

They're all part of the big machine now

Check the angles from both forces

Overcome by the need to fight it,

fight it, fight it, fight it, fight it

Here comes the morning and I'll say goodbye to you

Here comes the morning and I'll say goodbye

but I don't turn around 'cos the reason is treason

See the stones coming at my window

See they left me no protection

Tell his family that he won't be ok

K! I! L-L!

Turn away from the suffering silence

You can't face your country using you

Check the angles from both forces

Overcome by the need to fight it,

fight it, fight it, fight it, fight it

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I think this anecdote actually shows why a crash will be bad when it happens. So many people arn't used to the idea of house prices going down, they won't have to go down far before a lot of people completly rethink the idea of buying a house. Most people buy a house with the expectation it will go up in price; even the thought that it won't will put a lot of people (especially the young/kidless who arn't buying it for life) off.

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Well, the HPC argument cherry got popped round at my brothers last night as he looks (albeit casually) for another house.

His situation:

He's 29 and a chef - earns less than £20k with no prospects of any wage increases (morelikely to take a drop if he moves). Bought a 3 bed semi with g/f back in 1999 for £46k and spent another £20k (of our mom's money!) doing it up as it was a wreck.

His (now) wife works part time in an insurance company call centre for peanuts whilst mother-in-law looks after two children (3 and 10 months). Wife is demanding, constantly looking at houses/holidays etc.

They want to move up the ladder as the 3rd bedroom won't be big enough for the baby when he needs a full size bed, the fact that this won't be for another 5 years doesn't seem to dampen their justification.

I gave the full spiel to him last night citing our childhood house as an example as it has just come on the market (£30k less than in 2004 I might add).

He is adamant that despite the fact that he has been witnessing falls in our area, prices will not go down much further..... why?

"They just won't, the government won't allow it!"

Another thing - I explained that our entire generation had that opinion due to the fact that we were kids when the last crash was happening.

"There was a crash? Oh, I didn't know that" :blink:

He's not the sharpest tool in the shed, and neither is his wife, but this just blew me away - and they want to add another £40k onto their existing mortgage, when they live hand-to-mouth as it is (albeit overpaying the mortgage £100 a month). His wife won't be working full-time for at least another 6-7 years and has little earning potential anyway.

I now understand the frustration despite the fact that he seemed to absorb some of the information I was putting infront of him.

Like most folks they just want to live their lives, in the way they think is "normal" and with the "things" they believe are necessary in that life.

They believe that the "system" also wants that for them. It does, up to a point, but the "system" can afford quite a few failures and survive.

In depth analysis of financial decisions is not for most. Thankfully for the financial institutions.

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I am 26 and can remember quite distinctly the recession and crash of the early 90s. Weird how people forget such pivotal events.

Same here - particularly the news items with that same picture in the background over and over again: Street with for sale boards at every house.

Don't know WTF he was watching - Hollyoaks didn't exist then!!

On a side note - parents both public sector workers (teaching and Probation), and no close family affected so it was never picked up on through adults at home.

Edited by A late entrance..

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Well, the HPC argument cherry got popped round at my brothers last night as he looks (albeit casually) for another house.

His situation:

He's 29 and a chef - earns less than £20k with no prospects of any wage increases (morelikely to take a drop if he moves). Bought a 3 bed semi with g/f back in 1999 for £46k and spent another £20k (of our mom's money!) doing it up as it was a wreck.

His (now) wife works part time in an insurance company call centre for peanuts whilst mother-in-law looks after two children (3 and 10 months). Wife is demanding, constantly looking at houses/holidays etc.

They want to move up the ladder as the 3rd bedroom won't be big enough for the baby when he needs a full size bed, the fact that this won't be for another 5 years doesn't seem to dampen their justification.

I gave the full spiel to him last night citing our childhood house as an example as it has just come on the market (£30k less than in 2004 I might add).

He is adamant that despite the fact that he has been witnessing falls in our area, prices will not go down much further..... why?

"They just won't, the government won't allow it!"

Another thing - I explained that our entire generation had that opinion due to the fact that we were kids when the last crash was happening.

"There was a crash? Oh, I didn't know that" :blink:

He's not the sharpest tool in the shed, and neither is his wife, but this just blew me away - and they want to add another £40k onto their existing mortgage, when they live hand-to-mouth as it is (albeit overpaying the mortgage £100 a month). His wife won't be working full-time for at least another 6-7 years and has little earning potential anyway.

I now understand the frustration despite the fact that he seemed to absorb some of the information I was putting infront of him.

A workmate bought a newbuild in Nov 05, I made my opinion known before he bought that there could be

a crash, but he said that there where conditions in place to stop a crash from happening,

when I asked what conditions they were, he said he couldnt remember offhand it was too

technical, I think he was refering to the pitch the Estate Agent had gave him that settled his

doubts but did not understand really.

With that another workmate joined in saying that the house was a newbuild and therefore would not drop in price, how does that work I said, because everything in it is new, the taps are new, the central heating is new.

Thanks for that I said, its been an economics masterclass.

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I had a similar discussion with someone, I gave up when he started to look like he was going to get violent.

"there's going to be a HPC" says I,

"no there won't, "they" won't let it happen" says he.

"How do "they" stop joe bloggs down the road from putting his house on the market for less than this next door heighbour?"

"They just will. RIGHT!"

"Okay then."

(He'd recently bought)

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To paraphrase a previous comment on this forum

Being able to predict a crash in the housing market in today's economic climate does not get you on the shortlist for a Nobel Prize in economic theory..

I had a similar discussion with someone, I gave up when he started to look like he was going to get violent.

"there's going to be a HPC" says I,

"no there won't, "they" won't let it happen" says he.

"How do "they" stop joe bloggs down the road from putting his house on the market for less than this next door heighbour?"

"They just will. RIGHT!"

"Okay then."

(He'd recently bought)

but what if he wants to sell his house and no one is buying?

I have had the most bizarre conversations..

What staggers me is that people will spend that much money based on what they are told by the person who is selling it.

I can talk about the housing market over the last 50 to 60 years for hours without making an incorrect statement.. I can tell you how it ballences within the economy and I can tell you how IR's and various other whotsits are affected by the economy on a global level..

But the argument some make that it is "different this time" seems to win..

Bless them..

Tell them that you are a property investor..

they will say that you are not as you don't own..

Tell them that as prices are dropping the only true property investor is one that does not own property but plans to..

and prices are dropping.. all over where I am.. and everywhere..

I see it on what they are sold for.. so what if statistics say otherwise..

Edited by apom

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I am 26 and can remember quite distinctly the recession and crash of the early 90s. Weird how people forget such pivotal events.

I'm 30. Can recall the same. GCSE revision, TV on at lunch just in time for Neighbours... Loadsa For Sale signs on the News.

I had a similar discussion with someone, I gave up when he started to look like he was going to get violent.

The incredibly sad thing is I am getting this from my sixty-year-old father. Anyhow, like I said before, I will keep you all up to date on his BTL situation. Latest is that there's some problem with getting the mortgage. The build isn't complete until March 06!

Latest from friends is "they will just keep creeping up". Give me a couple of pints, and I have the confidence not to say anything and I've got a good poker-face on me now ;) When a look of mild uncertainty then crept across my friends face, I couldn't help but grin. :lol:

Tell them that you are a property investor..

Nice one, Apom! :lol:

Edited by megaflop

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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