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More Bearish News From Australia

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1. Petrol prices have only just gone up over the past week or so and only by 5% so far. But already there are letters to the editor in newspapers. It seems to be hurting rather quickly and of course the big point practically every commentator has been making is that real estate prices "should" stabilise provided that petrol prices stay down. Looks like that idea is out the window and the RBA has already said that a rise in fuel prices would be an interest rate rise trigger since it would push inflation above the upper end of the target range.

2. Retail sales are weak. http://www.abc.net.au/news/newsitems/200601/s1544040.htm

3. Job advertisements are down. Whilst some may point to the internet, that's been an ongoing trend for quite some time and is unlikely to have greatly accelerated in recent times. So why the weakness in jobs? http://www.abc.net.au/news/newsitems/200601/s1544030.htm

Not wishing an economic disaster on anyone, just observing that slowly but surely all the pieces of a significant slowdown are falling into place. That leaves the house price bulls and their "prices won't fall because the economy is strong" argument looking rather weak. Likewise the one about "now that oil prices have come down".

And looking at http://www.kitco.com/ just now it seems that oil is up yet again.

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?

      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%

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