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Alfie Moon

Birmingham And/or West Midlands

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Anyone got any thoughts or insights about the Birmingham property market for the coming year? Halifax show a slight rise (below national average) in their most recent report. I seem to remember that in 2003 (I think) places like Bearwood ans Smethwick were seeing YOY rises of over 64% over a couple of years (i.e. one of the highest in the country at the time. I think places like Kings Heath and Moseley and some other places have seen similar inflation during this boom. Does this mean that Birmingham may be in for some very dramatic falls or do you think there has been a long term shift in house prices in Brum? Would be perfectly happy to see this thread to develop into a wider West Midlands analysis/discussion. I think there may be few of us West Midlanders now frequenting HPC.

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Just to give you an idea of how ridiculous house prices are in Bearwood, Birmingham, see the following link for 3 bedroom mid-terrace house on at £195,000:

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/viewdetails-104...pa_n=3&tr_t=buy

Bearwood is a moderately okish area but is far from anything special. A few years ago ftbs could easily have bought the house I have provided as an example. Now you have to be a very decent earner (for West Midlanders) to be able to buy such a house. It's just a dead ordinary mid-terrace house in a dead ordinary inner city area for crying out loud! To my mind these places such as Bearwood are due a major correction ... but will we see it, and when?

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I suppose the demise of Rover could impact badly on the situation in the south of Birmingham and propagate out to Bromsgrove and Reddich as well.

Prices in Birmingham are ridiculous for such an economically depressed crime ridden city where civil war breaks out between different ethnic groups. Birmingham is on track to becoming another Detroit.

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I suppose the demise of Rover could impact badly on the situation in the south of Birmingham and propagate out to Bromsgrove and Reddich as well.

Prices in Birmingham are ridiculous for such an economically depressed crime ridden city where civil war breaks out between different ethnic groups. Birmingham is on track to becoming another Detroit.

Having been to Detroit and Birmingham I would say Detroit is already nicer!

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The City Centre, and surrounding areas, have seen flat precise decline servely due to massive over supply last year. House prcies seemed to increase though.

As I have been looking in the Harborne, Edgbaston, Bourneville sort of areas on Rightmove, house prcies seems to be very expensive, but properties, on the whole, are not shifting - several have been for sale for months on end.

I would suspect that Birmingham will be little different from the nation as a whole as far as property prices go. I cannot think that Rover will have a particularly significant effect as many of the workers seem to have found alternative employment.

I cannot believe that Bearwood increased as much as 64% yoy.

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stagnant at best...

two house's on my dads road... in birmingham yardley area

both nice properties...

one 160 beginning 2005

now 155 mid 2005

still not sold... after 12 months (different agent, cheaper price)

new one now on... similar property...

on at 155... (no chain) do people not realise... its not selling at that price...

my dads guess is 140... as he knows the work to do on it... ;) They paid 124k in begginning 2004

id go in at 125... ;) (3.3 times my salary earnings, with 10k deposit)

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Big parts of Birmingham are absolute shit holes, where prices will almost certainly fall. In places like Mosely there has been rampant property speculation by the Asian community. Kings Heath, which to my untrained eye, again looks like a complete wall of cow excrement , a crappy terrace will cost circa 170k. To rent these would cost 650, yet a mortgage would be 1000. These houses are worse than the types on Coronation Street, they are of a Dickensian level of squalid rankness.

According to the stats the West Mids has HPI of around 1% over the last 12 months, I suspect places like Brum, Liverpool, Manchester swathes of the North East, will suffer most due to:

1. High density of new build apartments and box homes

2. Reliance on public sector jobs

3. Poor private sector labour market over last year

3. Many areas are unattractive to live

Already seen heavy discounting and offers from housebuilders. Things are looking bleak for new homeowners in Brum.

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those kinda increased bother me so much...

cuase thats the increase in my wages over the same period...

im constantly playing catch up... its just getting silly..

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I am surprised - not the nicest of areas, Bearwood, but not too bad. I suppose that it is on the edge of Harborne, but Harborne (severely overpriced) has nicer people living there. Bearwood has the amenities, but it not in the same league. I see from the link that the prices there are dropping already, I expect that they have a long way to go.

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Just to show how 'stupid' prices are in Bearwood, and indeed the rest of Birmingham, compare the house I linked to in the secod post of this thread (i.e. a mid-terrace house in Herbert Rd, Bearwood) to what you can get for a similar amount of money in Reigate, Surrey:

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/viewdetails-915...pa_n=1&tr_t=buy

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/viewdetails-104...pa_n=1&tr_t=buy

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/viewdetails-101...pa_n=1&tr_t=buy

If my memory serves me correctly the relationship between Bearwood and Reigate (which is spitting distance from London - i.e. prime expensive commuter country for London) a few years ago was along the lines of:

If you owned the Bearwood property I linked to in the second post on this thread and sold it and moved down to Reigate and used the money from the sale of the house to buy a property in Reigate you would be lucky to be able to afford a studio flat, if anything at all. These days you can sell up in Bearwood and get a 2 bedroom cottage, or even a 3 bedroom house in Reigate. Surely the long term relationship between property prices in Bearwood/Birmingham and Reigate/Surrey will have to reassert itself at some point? If it does there should be some dramatic falls in Brum, and I would have thought places like Bearwood, Kings Heath, Moseley, Edgbaston, et al will be among the casulties.

Edited by Alfie Moon

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To make sure that my observations about the price of houses in Bearwood/Birmingham Vs Reigate Surrey are not due to cherry picking individual houses for comparison I have visited the Land Registry site to get some overall average prices to compare. I have used the B67 5 postcode where the Herbert Rd mid terrace hose in Bearwood is located (see link I gave in 2nd post of this thread) and the RH2 8 postcode which is where the 2 bedroom mid terrace cottage is located in Reigate (see 1st link in post above this one where I gave 3 links to example properties in Reigate). I looked up the average price for terrace houses for these Bearwood and Reigate postcodes for Jul-Sep 2005 and Jul-Sep 2000. The results were as follows:

Reigate (postcode: RH2 8) Jul-Sep 2005 average price of terrace house = 178k

Reigate (postcode: RH2 8) Jul-Sep 2000 average price of terrace house = 144k

Bearwood (Brum) (postcode: B67 5) Jul-Sep 2005 average price of terrace house = 126.3k

Bearwood (Brum) (postcode: B67 5) Jul-Sep 2000 average price of terrace house = 60.5k

This means that in 2000 the cost of an average terrace house in Bearwood (B67 5) was = to 42% of the average cost of an average terrace house in Reigate (RH2 8).

In 2005 the cost of an average terrace house in Bearwood (B67 5) was = to 71% of the average cost of an average terrace house in Reigate (RH2 8).

Surely this reduced margin between prices in Bearwood (ordinary part of Birmingham) versus prices in Reigate (expensive London commuter country) cannot be maintained. Surely the long term trend, which I assume is more likely to be closer to 42% rather than 71%, is almost certainly going to reassert itself. If so prices in Bearwood will need to drop by a considerable amount. What do others think?

Edited by Alfie Moon

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I've recently moved back to the Midlands from London.

I live in Lichfield (rent free with parents - its my home town) but am looking to move into Birmingham and started looking at the flats in Brum town centre - there seem to be literally hundreds for sale/rent at identical prices.

I've spent a bit of time looking carefully at the market mainly in Lich as a benchmark since im more familiar with it and in the last 6 months ive noticed asking prices coming down a bit. Nothing dramatic i suppose but still significant. Ive also been tracking Burton on Trent (mainly because my sis lives there so again i have a bit of familiarity with it) and the same seems to be happening.

Definately going to rent for a couple of years and ive made a couple of half hearted cheeky offers (12 months pyt in advance for a good chunk off the monthly rental etc) on flats in Lich and Sutton but no ones bitten yet even though the properties stayed empty for a few months.

Anyone got any tales/tactics for getting good rental deals on Brum city centre pads (or Sutton)

I also lived not far from Reigate (Croydon) for a few years 92 ish to 97 ish and im familiar with Reigate. Reigate is a very nice and established suburb and has been for years and will be for years to come so I absolutely agree with the Bearwood analysis

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there seem to be literally hundreds for sale/rent at identical prices.

I'm amazed at the rental stock on Rightmove in Brum. It's spectacular. Won't be long before LL's begin to compete for tenants. It all starts arounf £600 PCM for anything decent, I can see that falling.

Anyone got any tales/tactics for getting good rental deals on Brum city centre pads (or Sutton)

There's too much choice for you to overpay. Wait till someone bites.

£50 quid off monthly rentals = 1 month void on a £600PCM property.

£100 quid off monthly rentals = 2 months void on a £600PCM property.

A LL would be an idiot not to bite.

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I work in redditch, but would probably buy in solihull

Ive gone for renting 625 pm detached bungalow, can't moan really, would cost over 180k to buy at the moment! Very close to work, still looking around to buy, but will have to wait till my 6 months contract is up "nearly".

Will buy end of 2007 if the right property comes along! hopefully!

still be interested to see what you guys think of the market thou?

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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