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Jason

Halifax - +1% Mom, +5.1% Yoy

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December 2005: http://www.hbosplc.com/economy/includes/Ho...ndexDec2005.pdf

The regional breakdown should appear here: http://www.hbosplc.com/economy/QuarterlyRegionalComments.asp

(This should be updated for Quarter 4 at some point)

Here comes the news:

http://today.reuters.co.uk/news/newsArticl...CES-HALIFAX.xml

Edited by Jason

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December 2005:

The averaged predictions for 2006 will be a self fullfilling prophecy for asking prices. Sellers will see the 7% in first quarter and now add 7% to the prices they were asking at the end of last year before they took them off the market for Christmas.

Si

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Looks like we are back to 20% per annum HPI if the Halifax are right about 5.1% increase in the last Q?

Up up and away in 2006!!!!!! The miracle economy continues....

Or, does it???? All I can say is that around here prices are still falling if the EA windows are anything to go by--no increases just "price reduced" and "new price." 10% "Sales" here and there and houses with "SOLD" signs up after 6 months--obviously stuck in chains. Definitely no 20% annual HPI in the West Midlands--possibly 20% HPC though :lol::lol::lol:

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According to the Halifax the Non Adjusted figure for Dec is -0.2%. That is a lot od seaonal adjustment going on. Sooner or later the adjustment has to work out of the figures, if they are to have any creditibility. <_<

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If you look at the more detailed analysis though it is a very different picture.

In the South West there was a quarterly fall of 1.4%.

The highest HPI was supposedly 17% (B0ll0cks).

The lowest was -9%.

In my town it was -1%.

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Guest wrongmove

According to the Halifax the Non Adjusted figure for Dec is -0.2%. That is a lot od seaonal adjustment going on. Sooner or later the adjustment has to work out of the figures, if they are to have any creditibility. <_<

That does seem big. But seasonal adjustment does not affect the YoY figure.

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According to the Halifax the Non Adjusted figure for Dec is -0.2%. That is a lot od seaonal adjustment going on. Sooner or later the adjustment has to work out of the figures, if they are to have any creditibility. <_<

where do you get this value from?

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Oh to be an STR........ ;)

as a bear i see this as good news

reduces possibility of ir cuts and probably brings ir increases forward.

will reduce transactions further, increasing the pain on EAs etc

this is a tortoise and hare story

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as a bear i see this as good news

reduces possibility of ir cuts and probably brings ir increases forward.

will reduce transactions further, increasing the pain on EAs etc

this is a tortoise and hare story

Typical metalist bear statement - "house prices are going up, so thats good news" - Jeez, you lot must be mascochists

"will reduce transactions further" - doh ! - wrong, activity is picking up and transactions are increasing. Mortgage lending has picked up etc - end result is inflation in house prices. You need to see serious and long term reduction in transactions, + forced sellers to get reducing house prices.

IRs aren't going up in the next 12 months, the economic big picture is just not there to support increasing IRs.

You lot are in complete and utter denial of whats going on here !

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Typical metalist bear statement - "house prices are going up, so thats good news" - Jeez, you lot must be mascochists

"will reduce transactions further" - doh ! - wrong, activity is picking up and transactions are increasing. Mortgage lending has picked up etc - end result is inflation in house prices. You need to see serious and long term reduction in transactions, + forced sellers to get reducing house prices.

IRs aren't going up in the next 12 months, the economic big picture is just not there to support increasing IRs.

You lot are in complete and utter denial of whats going on here !

you remind me of tom in tom and jerry when he runs over the side of a cliff and for what seems like eternity he is defying gravity.

then gravity kicks in and he crashes to earth.

ouch!!

thats all folks

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Typical metalist bear statement - "house prices are going up, so thats good news" - Jeez, you lot must be mascochists

"will reduce transactions further" - doh ! - wrong, activity is picking up and transactions are increasing. Mortgage lending has picked up etc - end result is inflation in house prices. You need to see serious and long term reduction in transactions, + forced sellers to get reducing house prices.

IRs aren't going up in the next 12 months, the economic big picture is just not there to support increasing IRs.

You lot are in complete and utter denial of whats going on here !

One minute your a bear.. the next a bull.... A real pig in a poke

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South West

Penzance saw the fastest rise in house prices in the region over the twelve months to September 2005, with a 17% increase

Both Penzance and Cirencester saw gains of more than 10% over the past year. The best performing county was Cornwall with a 6% annual rise in prices."

On a county level Cornwall experienced the strongest annual house price growth over the past year, with a 6% increase to £201,053. This was followed by Gloucestershire with a 2% annual rise in prices to £198,588

Cirencester has seen house price growth of 14% over the past year

Figures include properties sold for £1 million plus

:blink: Stick a fork in me, im done :blink:

Typical metalist bear statement - "house prices are going up, so thats good news" - Jeez, you lot must be mascochists

"will reduce transactions further" - doh ! - wrong, activity is picking up and transactions are increasing. Mortgage lending has picked up etc - end result is inflation in house prices. You need to see serious and long term reduction in transactions, + forced sellers to get reducing house prices.

IRs aren't going up in the next 12 months, the economic big picture is just not there to support increasing IRs.

You lot are in complete and utter denial of whats going on here !

So much for bears just being pessimistic all the time :lol::)

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There are huge variations in these numbers. I guess this happens when the transaction volumes are low. Cirencester +14% and Swindon +1%? There's only about 10 miles between these towns. I'm guessing the Cirencester figure has been heavily influenced by a small number of very high value sales.

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Am I the only one who is suspicious of these figures.

Just as Nationwide and Halifax are about to go YOY negative they suddenly show a couple of months rapid "seaonally adjusted" growth to keep 2005 as a whole healthy.

Now maybe the relentless spinning has convinced a few more fools back into the market but I will be interested to see where the indicies go for the next few months. :angry:

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It's looking good around here too (Kingston-upon-Thames) on page 4 of the Halifax Greater London release

It says

City of London and Kingston-upon-Thames excluded due to insufficient sample.

Kingston-upon-Thames isn't a low population area (it's part of Greater London after all), so I can only assume they mean "nothings selling so we cant' guess what the average price is" :D

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Ahem.

The current scenario is crystal clear and it goes like this.

I am 23 I have many friends, some I met at school others at university.

Some of my school friends have recently bought houses.

(Very nice houses by the way as many of them earn >£40,000, the work IS there, it's just oversea's/offshore)

Of my friends who went to university not a single one has purchased a house.

When I discuss home ownership with pals from uni I ask open questions because I am looking for an honest opinion.

One thing very quickly becomes apparent.

Everyone I know with a degree is more than happy to emigrate and has either looked at it or is looking at it.

There is only one reason for this, they cannot afford to live where they work.

Industrialised nations cannot function without university graduates [period].

Something needs to change, and it will.

Please be patient.

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Look, it's all very simple:

1 . The only party leader to be against an unpopular war and make his party more popular finds himself with no friends ;

2 . In the Celebrity Big Brother house (caught this by accident - honest!) a planted 'unknown nobody' member of the public was voted more famous than other celebs in the house, by other celebs in the house;

3. Burton Albion forced a draw against ManU in the FA cup;

4. A man is 25K richer after winning a bet that a Liverpool striker would score from inside his own half;

... and H prices went up in Dec. What do you expect? :blink:

Edited by Sledgehead

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Typical metalist bear statement - "house prices are going up, so thats good news" - Jeez, you lot must be mascochists

How do you know he isn't taking the p!ss outta you guys? Just look at what nodumsunreader said in my signature!

Edited by Sledgehead

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Chaps, please note the regional break down hasn't been updated for quarter 4. The figures you have mentioned are for Q3.

Sorry for the missunderstanding, I thought Halifax would update them straight away, but it appears they will delay the regional breakdown release.

Nationwide regional breakdown is out tomorrow, I shall [of course[ remind you all!

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Chaps, please note the regional break down hasn't been updated for quarter 4. The figures you have mentioned are for Q3.

Sorry for the missunderstanding, I thought Halifax would update them straight away, but it appears they will delay the regional breakdown release.

Nationwide regional breakdown is out tomorrow, I shall [of course[ remind you all!

Interesting that they delay the regional details, they must have the information to hand so why?

Looks like news management to me, release the headline figures early then the regional figures once they are old news. I wonder if there are any nasty surprises included.

Have they always delayed the regional figures or is this a new trend?

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The graphs show why HBOS are relativly bullish, as you can see YOY has recovered, and during the period of decline in 2004, 2005 saw a slight increase. This looks like a soft landing, ofcourse i believe this effect has been achived temporaraloy because SIPPS, sentiment has shifted... will we see a decline in the spring? HBOS are suggesting further increases, or will the SIPPS reveral cause a slide?

Decembers NSA was negative...

HBOSYOY.JPG

HBOS.JPG

post-552-1136816731_thumb.jpg

post-552-1136816742_thumb.jpg

Edited by moosetea

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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