Jump to content
House Price Crash Forum
Sign in to follow this  
DGB

Prices Up This Year

Recommended Posts

Hi

First post, although I've been 'lurking' for a few months. I'm currently renting after a relocation from the South to the Midlands. My personal position therefore is that I would like to see a 20% drop in prices and preferably tomorrow.

In general I would say a lot of the HPC related predictions on this site over the last six months have not come true. Off the top of my head I can remember many YOY going negative predictions and housing/land stocks about to crash predictions but these types of things have just not happened. I would say that you are a year or two early.

I think the power of VI parties and spin and the fact that people in general are very unwilling to drop their price has been severely underestimated. I have looked at a few properties recently and at the last one the owner uttered those immortal words 'and house prices only go up you know'. Obviously not a house owner in the early nineties.

As we stand at the moment I do not see any events in 2006 that will make the market crash. There will be some negatives as I would expect unemployment to go over the one million mark and bankruptcies to reach a new high but this will not affect most people and will not bring on a HPC.

The housing market lives or dies by the level of interest rates, unless there is some sort of genuine shock to the economy. I would predict house prices rising by between 5 and 10 percent this year (Halifax and Nationwide figures that is) based on:

1. Interest Rates.

GDP figures will be poor, unemployment and personal/business bankruptcies will rise, retail figures remain poor. None of the figures will be a disaster but they will be enough to make the BOE react with interest rate cuts. I would expect interest rates to be below 4% before the year is out.

2. Inflation

Despite the increases in commodity prices inflation will remain low allowing the BOE to cut interest rates. I think we all know (bears and bulls) that the inflation rate is nonsense (doesn't include gas/electric/council tax for example) and I'm sure it will be manipulated in what ever way is necessary to allow interest rates to come down.

3. Politics

GB wants to be PM. This will almost certainly not happen if there is a HPC. I was surprised when he pulled the plug on SIPPS but maybe he just got scared as to how big an impact it would have. Even so, GB has a number of cronies on the MPC (five I believe) and this is another reason why we will see rates reduce this year.

4. Affordability

A lot has been written as to housing being unaffordable but I don't think this is the case yet. People in general take in all the VI spin and will do anything to get on the ladder. They will take on interest only mortgages with a view to paying money off it later, they will lie about their income, they will get big deposits from mum and dad MEWing, rooms can be rented out, they will part buy with the Government or the builder, couples of course have a double income (no thoughts of how to manage if children arrive) and there may well be many other creative ways of getting on the ladder.

I know in my town FTB prices are in the 85k - 100k bracket and I do not see any issue in affordability bearing in mind the options just mentioned.

One day the whole pack of cards will collapse and I think it will be pretty ugly when it all happens but it won't be this year unless we have genuine outside shock (my outside bet for that is something to do with Iran and their Euro bourse for dealing with oil - the USA ain't going to like that).

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Good first post, welcome to the site.

I agree that prices have been very sticky. Who knows when (or if) they will ever fall.

Only one thing is certain. Everything is cyclical. The pendulum always swings

Day, night

Tide in, tide out

Flared trousers in, Flared trousers out

House prices rising faster than inflation in, House prices rising faster than inflation out

Sheffield Wednesday winning the champions league out, Sheffield Wednesday winning the champions league in.

Sooner or later, your number is up.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Sheffield Wednesday winning the champions league out, Sheffield Wednesday winning the champions league in.

I think I've just spotted the flaw in your argument ;)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

First post, although I've been 'lurking' for a few months

of course you have.

And your estate agent boss didnt order u to spam the hpc on a monday.

And there IS a santa claus

Why do they bother? All they are doing is adding valuable content to the site, getting it more and better placings on google, increasing the traffic, and spreading the word even faster? In fact, we should probably ENCOURAGE these numpties!

Edited by CrashIsUnderWay

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Hi

First post, although I've been 'lurking' for a few months. I'm currently renting after a relocation from the South to the Midlands. My personal position therefore is that I would like to see a 20% drop in prices and preferably tomorrow.

In general I would say a lot of the HPC related predictions on this site over the last six months have not come true. Off the top of my head I can remember many YOY going negative predictions and housing/land stocks about to crash predictions but these types of things have just not happened. I would say that you are a year or two early.

I think the power of VI parties and spin and the fact that people in general are very unwilling to drop their price has been severely underestimated. I have looked at a few properties recently and at the last one the owner uttered those immortal words 'and house prices only go up you know'. Obviously not a house owner in the early nineties.

As we stand at the moment I do not see any events in 2006 that will make the market crash. There will be some negatives as I would expect unemployment to go over the one million mark and bankruptcies to reach a new high but this will not affect most people and will not bring on a HPC.

The housing market lives or dies by the level of interest rates, unless there is some sort of genuine shock to the economy. I would predict house prices rising by between 5 and 10 percent this year (Halifax and Nationwide figures that is) based on:

1. Interest Rates.

GDP figures will be poor, unemployment and personal/business bankruptcies will rise, retail figures remain poor. None of the figures will be a disaster but they will be enough to make the BOE react with interest rate cuts. I would expect interest rates to be below 4% before the year is out.

2. Inflation

Despite the increases in commodity prices inflation will remain low allowing the BOE to cut interest rates. I think we all know (bears and bulls) that the inflation rate is nonsense (doesn't include gas/electric/council tax for example) and I'm sure it will be manipulated in what ever way is necessary to allow interest rates to come down.

3. Politics

GB wants to be PM. This will almost certainly not happen if there is a HPC. I was surprised when he pulled the plug on SIPPS but maybe he just got scared as to how big an impact it would have. Even so, GB has a number of cronies on the MPC (five I believe) and this is another reason why we will see rates reduce this year.

4. Affordability

A lot has been written as to housing being unaffordable but I don't think this is the case yet. People in general take in all the VI spin and will do anything to get on the ladder. They will take on interest only mortgages with a view to paying money off it later, they will lie about their income, they will get big deposits from mum and dad MEWing, rooms can be rented out, they will part buy with the Government or the builder, couples of course have a double income (no thoughts of how to manage if children arrive) and there may well be many other creative ways of getting on the ladder.

I know in my town FTB prices are in the 85k - 100k bracket and I do not see any issue in affordability bearing in mind the options just mentioned.

One day the whole pack of cards will collapse and I think it will be pretty ugly when it all happens but it won't be this year unless we have genuine outside shock (my outside bet for that is something to do with Iran and their Euro bourse for dealing with oil - the USA ain't going to like that).

I think you must be gullible - or daft. Not sure which.

'Housing unaffordable - but I don't think this is the case yet.'

How bizarre! Yes, we have a long way to go before housing becomes unaffordable! Wonder why FTBs are having to put off buying until, on average, they are 34. Wonder why our birth rate is only 1.6. Wonder why the number of FTBs in the market is at an all-time low. What is the matter with them? Housing is affordable - why don't they just buy?

Wonder why house prices where I live have been falling, relentlessly for about 2 years. Wonder why this has not shown up in the indexes yet? (Because houses are still selling for more than they did last time they were sold. What else can you measure house prices by? The VI indices are pure bullsh@t to try to prop the market up.)

Wonder why developers offer you 15% off newbuild flats without you even asking for a discount?

Wonder why my former next door neighbours house recently sold at auction for 260k after over a year and a half on the market - starting out at 385k.

Wonder why another nice place near me sold in Jan 05 for 469k after a year on the market starting at 565k.

Is it me? Have I gone mad? Lost a grip on reality? Everywhere I look I see houses not selling, houses when they do sell selling for well under asking price. New build flats still unsold TWO years after being finished. Boss of Redrow Homes saying 'worst market for 30 years'. Why is he saying that? Is he bonkers? Doesn't he know the market is still rising?

You believe what you want to believe. Those poor people on the ex-pats web site must all be living in cr@ppy houses in cr@ppy areas - none of them seem to able to sell - wonder why not - you'd think in a rising market it would be easy.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.