It's Different This Time - Part Ii - Oestrogen

[JohnG]

I originally posted what follows in the original 'It's different this time' thread. Unfortunately what I said was lost amongst 'noise' about my portfolio, so here we go again comparing the current/ forthcoming situation with last time.

Last time the age of the average FTB was (IIRC) about 23-24. The advanced notice of the abolition of MIRAS had the effect of dragging the next 2 years' worth of FTBs into the market earlier than would otherwise have been the case. This meant that not only had prices been artificially raised, but also for the next 2 years there were very few FTBs underpinning the market. No wonder there was a crash.

Contrast that with today. The average FTB these days is what? 31, 32, 33? So compared with 'the last time', there's about a decade's worth of FTBs waiting in the wings for the market to soften. That's a lot of pent up demand.

'Nonsense', I hear the Bears saying. Look at the charts, look at the fundamentals, price/earnings ratios, etc. etc. etc.

Please forgive my (probably non PC) observation. You can 'chart' and 'trend' all you like. It all counts for nothing when Oestrogen enters the equation.

Oestrogen, I said.

You can be as logical as you like. When your lady is in her 30s that biological clock is ticking louder than Big Ben chimes. She wants to 'nest'. Not somewhere rented under the control of some MGB landlord but 'our own place'.

We have already seen on these boards a possible future divorce because a spouse wants 'our own place'. Actually, as I understand it, it's worse than that, the poster & wife already had their own place but he chose to STR.

Your comment, please.

.

[theChuz]

I originally posted what follows in the original 'It's different this time' thread. Unfortunately what I said was lost amongst 'noise' about my portfolio, so here we go again comparing the current/ forthcoming situation with last time.

Last time the age of the average FTB was (IIRC) about 23-24. The advanced notice of the abolition of MIRAS had the effect of dragging the next 2 years' worth of FTBs into the market earlier than would otherwise have been the case. This meant that not only had prices been artificially raised, but also for the next 2 years there were very few FTBs underpinning the market. No wonder there was a crash.

Contrast that with today. The average FTB these days is what? 31, 32, 33? So compared with 'the last time', there's about a decade's worth of FTBs waiting in the wings for the market to soften. That's a lot of pent up demand.

'Nonsense', I hear the Bears saying. Look at the charts, look at the fundamentals, price/earnings ratios, etc. etc. etc.

Please forgive my (probably non PC) observation. You can 'chart' and 'trend' all you like. It all counts for nothing when Oestrogen enters the equation.

Oestrogen, I said.

You can be as logical as you like. When your lady is in her 30s that biological clock is ticking louder than Big Ben chimes. She wants to 'nest'. Not somewhere rented under the control of some MGB landlord but 'our own place'.

We have already seen on these boards a possible future divorce because a spouse wants 'our own place'. Actually, as I understand it, it's worse than that, the poster & wife already had their own place but he chose to STR.

Your comment, please.

.

A valid point...but...

There isnt actually 10 years of pent up FTB'rs,some of the young 20's dont care about home ownership its been out of thier reach for some time now some (who i speak to) just accept that they wont be buying until thier late 20's early 30's there is no wish from them to actually buy, they would much prefer to piss thier money up the wall.

More and more of these young 20's have gonethrough higher education and will be comming out with the debts to prove it, they want to see some of the world, and they have all the time in the world because the average age of a FTB'r is 34, its what they are told, so there is no rush.

Then theres that debt mountain which keeps rearing its ugly head on here, its huge. When credit gets tightened which there are signs of already i very much doubt the banks will be prepared to lend you a massive amount of money when youve got 10K of credit card debt.

The property boom has gone on for to long, people actually get used to renting as all thier friends have to rent. I think some of the anger here comes from ~30 year olds seeing thier friends with a mortage of 3x salary just because they bought 5 years ago. People have a tendancy of judging themselves agaisnt thier peer group, if all thier friends are renting then they wont have a problem with it, when one of them breaks the mould and buys a place the others will think hes crazy, why pay the extra money.

Sentiment on the way down will keep peopel at bay, even people on this site may go off the idea of buying a place when its all sliding, people will hold out if they think theres a chance of negeq.

They are some of the points i can think of off the top of my head, not a great deal of thought went into it so you maybe able to counter-argue some of them quite easily

I still do think that you have a valid point though and i believe it may create some false bottoms on the way down. Bit of a saw tooth instead of a smooth slide.

Edited January 8, 2006 by theChuz

[AgeingBabyBoomer]

Well,

In som erespects it is different this time.

Many more FTB's are single - there has been an increase in

the number of single homeowners - so your assumptions about the

biological clock only apply to 50% of the population in the first

place, and only that percentage in a potential family starting scenario

will be on your list of potential buyers.

Also, renting is so much cheaper than buying right now, that people can

afford to wait and save. I know people who put off starting a family

until the woman was in her forties -mainly because of HPI in the 80's

and the 90's crash. do not assume that will not happen again.

Also, do not assume that your paper gain today will be realised in full - when the

market tanks, you will get what people are prepared to pay.

Don't forget also, that there are many highly geared BTL's who have the same

'master plan' - there may be a glut of sellers like yourself trying to remain solvent

while the market gets very irrational in the bearish direction.

Finally, those who have been locked out of home ownership for some time will

not be in any great mood to help you liquidate your assets.

IMO

ABB

[Yankee]

I originally posted what follows in the original 'It's different this time' thread. Unfortunately what I said was lost amongst 'noise' about my portfolio, so here we go again comparing the current/ forthcoming situation with last time.

Last time the age of the average FTB was (IIRC) about 23-24. The advanced notice of the abolition of MIRAS had the effect of dragging the next 2 years' worth of FTBs into the market earlier than would otherwise have been the case. This meant that not only had prices been artificially raised, but also for the next 2 years there were very few FTBs underpinning the market. No wonder there was a crash.

Contrast that with today. The average FTB these days is what? 31, 32, 33? So compared with 'the last time', there's about a decade's worth of FTBs waiting in the wings for the market to soften. That's a lot of pent up demand.

'Nonsense', I hear the Bears saying. Look at the charts, look at the fundamentals, price/earnings ratios, etc. etc. etc.

Please forgive my (probably non PC) observation. You can 'chart' and 'trend' all you like. It all counts for nothing when Oestrogen enters the equation.

Oestrogen, I said.

You can be as logical as you like. When your lady is in her 30s that biological clock is ticking louder than Big Ben chimes. She wants to 'nest'. Not somewhere rented under the control of some MGB landlord but 'our own place'.

We have already seen on these boards a possible future divorce because a spouse wants 'our own place'. Actually, as I understand it, it's worse than that, the poster & wife already had their own place but he chose to STR.

Your comment, please.

.

Would you guys get off this "nesting" thing? Women can (and are) just as smart (often more so) than men about money and big purchases.

Where are the statistics to back up this "women are nesters, therefore they force their husbands/boyfriends into making unwise house choices" theory? Studies? Surveys? Anything other than anecdotal junk science.

Maybe this is a cultural thing. Nobody I know in the U.S. talks about women this way.

I know this is sort of a half rant, but, frankly, I get tired about how women are often stereotyped on this site.

[geranium]

You can also turn this idea around: The impossibility of buying a child-friendly house anywhere near work (at least in London) might just put people off having children at all. I read somewhere an estimate that 25% of women of childbearing age currently will not have children.

[Mags]

Would you guys get off this "nesting" thing? Women can (and are) just as smart (often more so) than men about money and big purchases.

Where are the statistics to back up this "women are nesters, therefore they force their husbands/boyfriends into making unwise house choices" theory? Studies? Surveys? Anything other than anecdotal junk science.

Maybe this is a cultural thing. Nobody I know in the U.S. talks about women this way.

I know this is sort of a half rant, but, frankly, I get tired about how women are often stereotyped on this site.

Absolutely!

I've heard the female reproductive system being blamed for all sorts of things, but to blame it for the state of the housing market is a tad excessive! I know plenty of women who are happy to bring up a family in a rented house where they can ask the landlord to get all the maintenance done and free up time to spend with their family. If I had a choice of overstretching myself to get a mortgage on a tiny property that needs total renovation just so I could get pregnant (believe me, I don't need a mortgage to do that!) or rent somewhere much bigger, in a far nicer area, for much less money and have someone else take care of all the maintenance, both financially and time wise, what option do you think I'd choose?!

[newaccount99]

Absolutely!

I've heard the female reproductive system being blamed for all sorts of things,

I think we may be taking him too literaly..........It doesn't just apply to women.....it hits men too, when one hits 30 you are certainly more prone to start setting up some security/stability in your life.....unless you done it already in your teens/twenties and then your more likely to be in mid-life crises mode with a Boxster on the drive. Sure it's nothing actualy to do with Oestrogen....But, there is a salient point in his Oestrogen term, the average FTB is now in his 30's....telling him/her that they just need to wait a further 5 years before the trough of the dip is going to be hard to take.

Sure this won't stop the pressures for a correction..........but it will help slow it down and drag it out over 10 rather than 5 years.

Edited January 8, 2006 by BTLOptingOut

[theChuz]

Absolutely!

I've heard the female reproductive system being blamed for all sorts of things, but to blame it for the state of the housing market is a tad excessive! I know plenty of women who are happy to bring up a family in a rented house where they can ask the landlord to get all the maintenance done and free up time to spend with their family. If I had a choice of overstretching myself to get a mortgage on a tiny property that needs total renovation just so I could get pregnant (believe me, I don't need a mortgage to do that!) or rent somewhere much bigger, in a far nicer area, for much less money and have someone else take care of all the maintenance, both financially and time wise, what option do you think I'd choose?!

Would you guys get off this "nesting" thing? Women can (and are) just as smart (often more so) than men about money and big purchases.

Where are the statistics to back up this "women are nesters, therefore they force their husbands/boyfriends into making unwise house choices" theory? Studies? Surveys? Anything other than anecdotal junk science.

Maybe this is a cultural thing. Nobody I know in the U.S. talks about women this way.

I know this is sort of a half rant, but, frankly, I get tired about how women are often stereotyped on this site.

We had a threads on this ill see if i can find them, i think youll be suprised at what you read on it, from women no less.

EDITED:

I had a couple of links lined up but thought twice about putting them here because people will read them and post on them which will resurect old threads and no doubt spawn more gender arguments.

If your interested do a search on the main forum for "nesting" see how many women atleast acknowledge it (the instinct for want of a better word) exists, see how many posters empathise with it.

Personally i think the concept is demeening but... there does seem to be some truth in it. From what i can gather _most_ women can empathise with other women who want to nest so all i can conclude is that the urge is greater in some women than other but that it is very real.

Edited January 8, 2006 by theChuz

[libitina]

Where are the statistics to back up this "women are nesters, therefore they force their husbands/boyfriends into making unwise house choices" theory? Studies? Surveys? Anything other than anecdotal junk science.

Maybe this is a cultural thing.

I know this is sort of a half rant, but, frankly, I get tired about how women are often stereotyped on this site.

I'll second that.

[a j]

Contrast that with today. The average FTB these days is what? 31, 32, 33? So compared with 'the last time', there's about a decade's worth of FTBs waiting in the wings for the market to soften. That's a lot of pent up demand.

'Nonsense', I hear the Bears saying. Look at the charts, look at the fundamentals, price/earnings ratios, etc. etc. etc.

Please forgive my (probably non PC) observation. You can 'chart' and 'trend' all you like. It all counts for nothing when Oestrogen enters the equation.

Oestrogen, I said.

You can be as logical as you like. When your lady is in her 30s that biological clock is ticking louder than Big Ben chimes. She wants to 'nest'. Not somewhere rented under the control of some MGB landlord but 'our own place'.

We have already seen on these boards a possible future divorce because a spouse wants 'our own place'. Actually, as I understand it, it's worse than that, the poster & wife already had their own place but he chose to STR.

Your comment, please. [/b]

.

I tend to agree - I'm sure that there is a backlog of potential buyers who have been saving deposits and paying off debts, so will enter the market when it becomes affordable rather than waiting for ongoing reductions.

I'm not sure that the female effect is as great as you present it. I'm sure that many potential male FTB's in their 30's are cautious about buying 1 bed places as the timescales for postponing children diminish as you get older. Men are inclined to want to gain the perception of security of home ownership, especially if there are children involved. I wonder how many couples will never have children because of being priced out of the housing market?

[Michael Hunt]

Oestrogen, = A female hormone produced by the ovary, oestrogen controls female sexual development, such as breasts, hair distribution and development of the genitals and womb. been lurking for about 18 months .str 4 months ago me and the wife have never been happier .wake up and get real house prices are falling the correction is on its way .never heard so much b0ll0x

[frugalista]

Last time the age of the average FTB was (IIRC) about 23-24. The advanced notice of the abolition of MIRAS had the effect of dragging the next 2 years' worth of FTBs into the market earlier than would otherwise have been the case. This meant that not only had prices been artificially raised, but also for the next 2 years there were very few FTBs underpinning the market. No wonder there was a crash.

Contrast that with today. The average FTB these days is what? 31, 32, 33? So compared with 'the last time', there's about a decade's worth of FTBs waiting in the wings for the market to soften. That's a lot of pent up demand.

[...]

Your comment, please.

I have three points to counter your assertion that there is a decade's worth of pent up FTB demand:

(1) I agree that the average age of FTBs last time was younger, but I don't think it was younger by quite that much. Just a hunch, really, I could be wrong.

(2) Higher education has been massively expanded. So, whereas in the 80's many people would have started work at 18, and therefore "expected" to buy maybe 7 years later at 25, nowadays many more young people start work at 22 (if you add a funky 'gap year' into the mix), and expect to buy 7 years later at 29.

(3) The demographics today are different. The baby boom went on until 1964. In 1987 there were therefore a large number of early-sixties baby boomers in their early twenties. Today's twenty- and thirty-somethings are of generation X and generation Y, born between 1965 and 1985, when there was a much lower birth rate.

frugalista

[TheJudge]

Not sure if I totally follow this argument, but here goes...

House prices fall to a slightly more affordable level, and all of the women who have (allegedly) been pressurising their partner to buy now leap on to the housing ladder and manage to prop up the whole market despite the fact that there is serious panic in other areas of the market (eg BTL).

Of course it is completely ridiculous to say that all women conform to your stereotype, but lets just say a proportion of women are very driven to "build their nest". So as the falls gather momentum the media have a field day with stories of ftb's with negative equity problems, people losing their homes, and BTLers in panic mode. So then these same "security-loving" women are then really going to want to pay over the odds in a falling market??????????

[newaccount99]

So as the falls gather momentum the media have a field day with stories of ftb's with negative equity problems, people losing their homes, and BTLers in panic mode. So then these same "security-loving" women are then really going to want to pay over the odds in a falling market??????????

I don't class myself as an idiot (but who doesn't)....but in 2002 I set 20% of my pension contributions on to technology stocks thinking the worst was over and now was a decent enough time to start re-investing.......It was a further two years before that sector hit it's trough......I'm in the black now (actualy one of my highest performers) but for a good couple of years it was my donkey investment.

If the market does fall at crash cruise speed 0.5-1%mth then don't expect any buyers.....but if the market is in the 0-0.1% falls area (as has been the case for 18mths now) then a lot of people won't worry too much about it. Their purchases will frther retain the market in the 0-0.1% zone.

Stand by for a Japan style correction, except in CLNB.

If you want to influence the market and prevent the Japan scenario then focus your efforts on CLNB

[Yankee]

We had a threads on this ill see if i can find them, i think youll be suprised at what you read on it, from women no less.

EDITED:

I had a couple of links lined up but thought twice about putting them here because people will read them and post on them which will resurect old threads and no doubt spawn more gender arguments.

If your interested do a search on the main forum for "nesting" see how many women atleast acknowledge it (the instinct for want of a better word) exists, see how many posters empathise with it.

Personally i think the concept is demeening but... there does seem to be some truth in it. From what i can gather _most_ women can empathise with other women who want to nest so all i can conclude is that the urge is greater in some women than other but that it is very real.

Chuz:

Those are just anecdotes. Some women are "nesters." Some men are, too. I know plenty of men who love hanging around their homes on weekends, fixing things up, gardening, cooking, having quiet time with their wives/girlfriends and children.

What is "nesting," anyway? A desire for a sanctuary. Men and women both share that desire.

And, as far as I'm concerned, it's the relationship that creates a "nest," not whether the home is rented or bought. And certainly not stuff.

Again, I get pretty fed up sometimes with the generalizations that are made about women on this site. I don't where you guys are looking for mates (American translation: girlfriends/wives), but, if I were you, I'd try looking elsewhere.

[Bedsprings]

I absolutely agree Yankee and Libitina

[Guest Winners and Losers]

Have to agree here, some of us (shock, horror!) don't even want kids.

Absolutely!

I've heard the female reproductive system being blamed for all sorts of things, but to blame it for the state of the housing market is a tad excessive! I know plenty of women who are happy to bring up a family in a rented house where they can ask the landlord to get all the maintenance done and free up time to spend with their family. If I had a choice of overstretching myself to get a mortgage on a tiny property that needs total renovation just so I could get pregnant (believe me, I don't need a mortgage to do that!) or rent somewhere much bigger, in a far nicer area, for much less money and have someone else take care of all the maintenance, both financially and time wise, what option do you think I'd choose?!

[Battenberg]

Seeing as oestrogen is a personal happy hormone of mine I thought I'd add my 2 pence worth.

I'm certainly more driven in my desire to own a house than my husband because I feel the need to be 'settled' possibly steming from a childhood of moving around the country changing schools.

I come from a family of home owners, hubby comes from a family of council tenants so again he doesn't see it the same way when it comes to owning. However, I had more reservations about going through with our intended purchase in the summer and that's how I came across this place and we pulled out.

I don't think it's particularly about nesting and if it was it would be too late now as I've had my 3 babies in our rented home but it might be about putting down roots.

[theChuz]

Chuz:

Those are just anecdotes. Some women are "nesters." Some men are, too. I know plenty of men who love hanging around their homes on weekends, fixing things up, gardening, cooking, having quiet time with their wives/girlfriends and children.

What is "nesting," anyway? A desire for a sanctuary. Men and women both share that desire.

And, as far as I'm concerned, it's the relationship that creates a "nest," not whether the home is rented or bought. And certainly not stuff.

Again, I get pretty fed up sometimes with the generalizations that are made about women on this site. I don't where you guys are looking for mates (American translation: girlfriends/wives), but, if I were you, I'd try looking elsewhere.

Well you wont get much of an argument from me there, you say that some men are too and i completly agree but what that does do it acknowledge there is a need/urge/wanting to nest from people whether they be male or female. Female friends that i have, want to be homemakers, thats how they define what the do, they are homemakers. The problem seems to be is that homemakers (whether they be male or female) dont feel like the house is really thiers unless they have a mortgage on it.

As it turns out , for what ever reason the homemakers in general tend to be women while thier husbands work the day job maybe this is that on average men get paid more. Maybe its because of the 'maternal instinct' that women in general have with there young children but in general the homemakers tend to be women and homemakers tend to want a mortgage instead of renting.

Unfortunatly we do need generalisations and labels otherwise we wouldnt be able to communicate very well, sometimes people take offence to certain generalisations and labels (i know i do) but sometimes we all need to realise that thier are exceptions to the rule and chances are when posting on here we will be talking to the exceptions.

I also realise that the women who post here probably dont have the nesting urge or if they do they have it under control, why else would they be posting here... I think if we went over to mumsnet and asked about nesting and making a home we would see the majority agree with the idea.

Women nest not because they are women but because in general the homemaker is a woman and homemakers like to nest. Male homemakers (where the wives are working the day job) also tend to want to nest.

I dont know if that _helps_ at all i dont know if there is anything to actually help thats just the way i see it.

[right_freds_dead]

i heard everything now to hold off the correction.

oesstrogen, testosterone, jobs, exports, IRs and biplanes.

the simply clear fact remains that houses are massivley overpriced.

they havent always been. your maybe expecting people to mellow to huge insane prices over time. but they havent. any pent up FTBs will still be so until at least a 30% drop happens. 1 year. 2 years or 5.

this boom is only a blip. it happend only shortly before we entered iraq - so not that long ago.

it simply cant/wont last for decades from now on. dream on. it came in 3 years. it will be gone in 3 years. its already falling apart along with my local prices FACTO.

its a price thing combined with a greed thing.

someones fingers are going to get badly burned.

[Yankee]

Well you wont get much of an argument from me there, you say that some men are too and i completly agree but what that does do it acknowledge there is a need/urge/wanting to nest from people whether they be male or female. Female friends that i have, want to be homemakers, thats how they define what the do, they are homemakers. The problem seems to be is that homemakers (whether they be male or female) dont feel like the house is really thiers unless they have a mortgage on it.

As it turns out , for what ever reason the homemakers in general tend to be women while thier husbands work the day job maybe this is that on average men get paid more. Maybe its because of the 'maternal instinct' that women in general have with there young children but in general the homemakers tend to be women and homemakers tend to want a mortgage instead of renting.

Unfortunatly we do need generalisations and labels otherwise we wouldnt be able to communicate very well, sometimes people take offence to certain generalisations and labels (i know i do) but sometimes we all need to realise that thier are exceptions to the rule and chances are when posting on here we will be talking to the exceptions.

I also realise that the women who post here probably dont have the nesting urge or if they do they have it under control, why else would they be posting here... I think if we went over to mumsnet and asked about nesting and making a home we would see the majority agree with the idea.

Women nest not because they are women but because in general the homemaker is a woman and homemakers like to nest. Male homemakers (where the wives are working the day job) also tend to want to nest.

I dont know if that _helps_ at all i dont know if there is anything to actually help thats just the way i see it.

I guess what I'm objecting to most, Chuz, are statements (and I don't actually recall if you made any of these) in which women are portrayed as being financial idiots because of their overpowering need to "nest."

Phooey.

[theChuz]

I guess what I'm objecting to most, Chuz, are statements (and I don't actually recall if you made any of these) in which women are portrayed as being financial idiots because of their overpowering need to "nest."

Phooey.

This is what a said on 'the divorce' thread a week or so a go ive ripped it out of context but the essence is should still be there.

That restores some of my faith in women.. ive always thought that women can do ANYTHING a man can do mentally i.e there is no gender barrier when it comes to intelligence.

So to hear that women are prepared to forsake economic sense, to give up on thier husband, to break apart a family with kids all for the sake of nesting concerns me. Especially when nesting is defined as having a mortgage instead of renting... my opinion of humanity is pretty low at the best of times so when i hear that love.. supposidly the most powerful emotion ever.. can be broken and tossed away purely over to rent or to buy .. i see nothing left. If its all that weak then.. whats the point.

EDITED:

I know that might as sound abit melodramtic but thats what i think when i hear stories like that, just a one off isn't a problem but it does become a problem when people start to identify with it and validate that it exists in more than one place.

The need to nest is so great but what is the nest without the husband and kids. Wanting to make a home is fine but a home is not defined by the 4 walls of a house, its the occupants that make the home and the social dynamics inside it, otherwise its just a house.

Kinda like buying a purse for a £1000 then realising you dont need it any more because you dont have any money to put in it, you spent it all on the purse.

I think 9 times out of 10 people dont get insulted by whats said its more to to with whats implied.

[right_freds_dead]

and if you do feel insulted by reading the posts. get over it. its only a forum.

its all pointless. you will still have to die at some point.

[theChuz]

and if you do feel insulted by reading the posts. get over it. its only a forum.

its all pointless. you will still have to die at some point.

...that i couldnt of said any better myself

EDITED:

Actually yea i could the grammer there is awful and its spaced out all weird

EDIT 2:

Im going to regret ever mentioning grammer .. this i know already

Edited January 8, 2006 by theChuz

[Guest wrongmove]

and if you do feel insulted by reading the posts. get over it. its only a forum.

its all pointless. you will still have to die at some point.

Nihilist Freds Dead !

Yes we are all born, yes we all have to die, but, to some of us, it's the bit in the middle that's important !