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Does Anyone Ever Have Hpc.co.uk Moments?

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is the correct one, yet you have this nagging doubt? I `ll tell you for why I ask, but firstly let me point out that I`m a huge fan of this place for a variety of reasons.

I ask due to me having to make a decision on a potential business venture. My research has been very thorough, the market is growing/will continue to grow IMHO, it is to all intents recession proof and yet I have one nagging doubt and I`m beginning to term it "The curse of HPC" :o

It has, as previously mentioned in Paradox`s thread below, dawned on me that the weight of opinion on this forum is not just bearish on property, but also negative on so many other issues, that it could begin to alter/cloud your judgement. For example, I pointed the HPC site in the direction of a project manger of a web development company and she practically wet herself as to the content on here, yet I for the most part respect the "forum opinion" due to the high level of quality debate and the content, which is crucial to me. So laden with this decision I have to make, I keep weighing up several discussions on here: as to where the economy is heading etc..financial gloom, rates rocketing along with repos, the oil drying up, the majority working like modern day slaves to make ends meet....The Curse of HPC.co.uk? :(

Edited by Converted Lurker

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is the correct one, yet you have this nagging doubt? I `ll tell you for why I ask, but firstly let me point out that I`m a huge fan of this place for a variety of reasons.

I ask due to me having to make a decision on a potential busines venture. My research has been very thorough, the market is growing/will continue to grow IMHO, it is to all intents recession proof and yet I have one nagging doubt and I`m beginning to term it "The curse of HPC" :o

It has, as previously mentioned in Paradox`s thread below, dawned on me that the weight of opinion on this forum is not just bearish on property, but also negative on so many other issues, that it could begin to alter/cloud your judgement. For example, I pointed the HPC site in the direction of a project manger of a web development company and she practically wet herself as to the content on here, yet I for the most part respect the "forum opinion" due to the high level of quality debate and the content, which is crucial to me. So laden with this decision I have to make, I keep weighing up several discussions on here: as to where the economy is heading etc..financial gloom, rates rocketing along with repos, the oil drying up, the majority working like modern day slaves to make ends meet....The Curse of HPC.co.uk? :(

Do what i do.. flip a coin, if the coins outcome makes you feel bad then pick the other option. Dont use a double headed coin though, you'll be there all f*ckin day if you do.

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is the correct one, yet you have this nagging doubt? I `ll tell you for why I ask, but firstly let me point out that I`m a huge fan of this place for a variety of reasons.

I ask due to me having to make a decision on a potential busines venture. My research has been very thorough, the market is growing/will continue to grow IMHO, it is to all intents recession proof and yet I have one nagging doubt and I`m beginning to term it "The curse of HPC" :o

It has, as previously mentioned in Paradox`s thread below, dawned on me that the weight of opinion on this forum is not just bearish on property, but also negative on so many other issues, that it could begin to alter/cloud your judgement. For example, I pointed the HPC site in the direction of a project manger of a web development company and she practically wet herself as to the content on here, yet I for the most part respect the "forum opinion" due to the high level of quality debate and the content, which is crucial to me. So laden with this decision I have to make, I keep weighing up several discussions on here: as to where the economy is heading etc..financial gloom, rates rocketing along with repos, the oil drying up, the majority working like modern day slaves to make ends meet....The Curse of HPC.co.uk? :(

a lot of the issues discussed on here are infused with verity. Doesn't make them pessimistic though - it is human arrogance to assume that anything other than the untramelled and exponential growth of our voracious race is a *bad thing*

it may require a deep-rooted change in cultural outlook for the majority "out there" but that's my view. Saying that "things will change" and that this may involve the decline of many of our existing systems and circumstances is not necessarily pessimistic.

to blindly assume that we will all continue to grow fatter and richer and drive faster and more expensive cars and have bigger houses and more and shinier "stuff" is pessimistic in my view. Devoid of imagination, lazy, expectant, greedy and destined to fail.

there are actually more important things in life that we lose sight of the more we become embroiled with material advancement. We may be about to receive a sharp reminder of this.

edit: more concisely, it is commonly written here that HPCers are not doom-mongers, but that people trying to maintain HPI are the real doom-mongers as they would split our society asunder.

Edited by Fancypants

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I'm 99% certain that a crash will come along. And it will be HUGE. Bigger than we've ever seen before.

1% of me does nag me and I sometimes find it hard believe comprehend the potential magnitude of the crash and the potential damaged caused by the resulting recession. So so many could be burnt this time, it alarms me. I believe there will be alot of anger from Joe Public when it kicks off, in particular at the media and the banks who fed this monster.

I make no secret that I expect in my area (BN13 2) there should be falls of over 50% from peak to trough over next 3-4 years. For people like us, HPCers who save and wait, we will be rewarded with a affordable home with a managable morgage and decent quality of life.

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Converted Lurker,

Know what you mean, but you can't change what you really believe and feel, well you can if you happen to be the ex-bulls who suddenly have a moment of clarity and then magically become bearish the minute they have completed selling their portfolios after having sugegsted to al and sundry to climb on board.

Only thing I'd say on the business front is that if it leaves you with too little liquidty or it involves ties to large rental/debt payments then you may be committing at the wrong point in time - to both cover your costs and also to get a bad bargain. I'll PM you a little story about an acquaintance of mine. Apart from that if the srt-up costs are not too high, well if you can make it work through a bust then all well and good, if it doesn;t work out, well not too much lost.

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i am bearish generally... i feel prices nationwide will fall and new builds and poor areas that have seen high growth based on nothing will do worst.

i think the economy could be in for a rough ride.

but the level of negativity on this site is amazing. second only to the level of certainty of the truth of the negativity.

NOTHING is certain. challenge everything. and yes, it is quite possible that now is the time to batten down the hatches and save. and yes, the UK might be on the way out.

BUT you've got 75 years to make and spend your fortune. 20 of those you'll be a kid or student and hopefully 10 you'll be retired. maybe the last 10 years of working life you'll be slowing down and being more conservative, and the first 5 you'll be establishing yourselves, saving for the first deposit or business venture. so we're down to 30 years to make your money. you've got to bide your time and ride the cycles, but you can't just put your life on hold for 10 years.

there will always be opportunities. maybe at the minute there are less and we've got to be more choosy, but don't let the negativity on this site blind you to the opportunities that are out there.

FF

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When it comes to a business decision, do the numbers, work out the risks and make a conservative cash flow forcast. If you can live with the outcome, the ask yourself if it is what you want to do. If you have spent so much time looking at something, chances are it is something you want to do, so have a go.

I have a business idea, but I realised it is not big enough to provide me with an income. The market is not big enough. I re-modelled it and it is now something I can do in my spare time. In 6 months the opportunity will arise to start the business and I have enough capital to do so. Is it something I want to do - yes. In 6 months time I will start it up.

As for this forum making you think everything is going wrong, it is up to you to go out and get all sides of an arguement. This forum tends only to give one. Go and find as many views on a subject as you can, and then make up your own mind for your own set of circumstances. You are the best person to do this. Making a decision is one of the hardest things to do in life. Don't be afraid.

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i am bearish generally... i feel prices nationwide will fall and new builds and poor areas that have seen high growth based on nothing will do worst.

i think the economy could be in for a rough ride.

but the level of negativity on this site is amazing. second only to the level of certainty of the truth of the negativity.

NOTHING is certain. challenge everything. and yes, it is quite possible that now is the time to batten down the hatches and save. and yes, the UK might be on the way out.

BUT you've got 75 years to make and spend your fortune. 20 of those you'll be a kid or student and hopefully 10 you'll be retired. maybe the last 10 years of working life you'll be slowing down and being more conservative, and the first 5 you'll be establishing yourselves, saving for the first deposit or business venture. so we're down to 30 years to make your money. you've got to bide your time and ride the cycles, but you can't just put your life on hold for 10 years.

there will always be opportunities. maybe at the minute there are less and we've got to be more choosy, but don't let the negativity on this site blind you to the opportunities that are out there.

FF

welcome back FF

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Do what i do.. flip a coin, if the coins outcome makes you feel bad then pick the other option. Dont use a double headed coin though, you'll be there all f*ckin day if you do.

That's what I do too. It makes you realise if the choice was the right one or not.

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The UK has been living on a credit boom that has been going on for 10+ years and it is easy to forget what the rest of the world has been doing.

The rest of Europe etc has been not had the same level of credit growth and therefore it will not need to go through the same credit payback period as the UK.

The UK will become less and less productive as the economy goes in to recession and many countries in the rest of the world will become more economically powerful.

IMHO Eastern Europe will do extremely well as they have a well trained productive workforce of cheap labour and they will compete with China as the cost of Oil increases and shipping costs become a larger component of the overall product cost.

We will have have to repay this credit binge in the UK it is just a matter of when. House Prices are just one of the elements of the Credit Binge.

This is not being pessimistic it is being realistic. :(

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Converted Lurker,

Know what you mean, but you can't change what you really believe and feel, well you can if you happen to be the ex-bulls who suddenly have a moment of clarity and then magically become bearish the minute they have completed selling their portfolios after having sugegsted to al and sundry to climb on board.

Only thing I'd say on the business front is that if it leaves you with too little liquidty or it involves ties to large rental/debt payments then you may be committing at the wrong point in time - to both cover your costs and also to get a bad bargain. I'll PM you a little story about an acquaintance of mine. Apart from that if the srt-up costs are not too high, well if you can make it work through a bust then all well and good, if it doesn;t work out, well not too much lost.

Thanks for staying on topic, amazing just how quickly threads go off on a tangent so quickly :blink: Car sales sub 4K cars which is where all the action appears to be. Excellent site/showroom on very busy road very close to another site that concentrates on cars 10K and up. The finance would be standard O/D from a bank (approx 100K), secured on a property that is mortgage free. Fixed overheads less than 2K per month. This can be slashed by 50% by sub letting the workshop and valet bays. Initial 12 month licence on premises, opportunity to purchase freehold for 250K after 1 year. Start up costs 5K to tidy it up. The rest is on stock. Have an excellent contact/friend who is a Director of a motor auction who wants to exit the auctions and work with me on it in 6 months time. During which time I`ll get lots of heads up on choice stock and good credit terms obviously ;) Also 2 larger traders see a good opportuntiy of feeding me their p/x vehicles on sale or return. That industry is where the bulk of my working experience lies, also property, finance, sales/marketing/pr, the web...I just see this as an excellent opportunity, that I wasn`t really looking for, It`s become available out of the blue...

The HPC moment comes when I take on board: oil drying up, employment slashed, Mad max type fights over petrol, us all having to use push bikes getting to work for a huge government on time... :unsure:

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Thanks for staying on topic, amazing just how quickly threads go off on a tangent so quickly :blink: Car sales sub 4K cars which is where all the action appears to be. Excellent site/showroom on very busy road very close to another site that concentrates on cars 10K and up. The finance would be standard O/D from a bank (approx 100K), secured on a property that is mortgage free. Fixed overheads less than 2K per month. This can be slashed by 50% by sub letting the workshop and valet bays. Initial 12 month licence on premises, opportunity to purchase freehold for 250K after 1 year. Start up costs 5K to tidy it up. The rest is on stock. Have an excellent contact/friend who is a Director of a motor auction who wants to exit the auctions and work with me on it in 6 months time. During which time I`ll get lots of heads up on choice stock and good credit terms obviously ;) Also 2 larger traders see a good opportuntiy of feeding me their p/x vehicles on sale or return. That industry is where the bulk of my working experience lies, also property, finance, sales/marketing/pr, the web...I just see this as an excellent opportunity, that I wasn`t really looking for, It`s become available out of the blue...

The HPC moment comes when I take on board: oil drying up, employment slashed, Mad max type fights over petrol, us all having to use push bikes getting to work for a huge government on time... :unsure:

Go for small engine cars then ya know stay under 1.8 litre have a good mix of deisel, tbh if we reach mad max days then we're all screwed, oil is needed for much more than just petrol. If that is your only concern then i would say yes you've been neg-nuked. We will go blow some sh*t up if need be.

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us all having to use push bikes getting to work for a huge government on time... :unsure:

I already do this and it's preferable to driving to work for a small satan and get there late!

EDIT: before I get mauled by the pack, it's not public sector per se and I am not paid for by the taxpayer.

Edited by Fancypants

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I already do this and it's preferable to driving to work for a small satan and get there late!

EDIT: before I get mauled by the pack, it's not public sector per se and I am not paid for by the taxpayer.

:lol:

For me it depends on how far away work is :)

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CL, I would say go for it.

I have never regretted working freelance and setting up a small company. Life just feels better.

Also that is a pretty good market I reckon. As things tighten people will be looking for less expensive cars that are still status symbols. The market for second hand quality cars under 4k looks promising.

In addition, on the economy sector, there is a massive market for small engine family cars and hatchbacks for young(ish) mothers to drive. Once again, if the recession kicks in less people will buy these new.

My advice - don't be an Arthur Daley and work out a good deal with a repairs garage. Offer some form of a guarantee. If people know that they can spend 3k on a car with you and that you will offer a 6 month guarantee or something like that then word of mouth will quickly advertise your business.

Good luck.

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Sounds about as counter-cyclical a car business as could be imagined.

You'll do no worse than the new car and nearly new car guys. Doesn't mean it will work of course.

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CL, I would say go for it.

I have never regretted working freelance and setting up a small company. Life just feels better.

Also that is a pretty good market I reckon. As things tighten people will be looking for less expensive cars that are still status symbols. The market for second hand quality cars under 4k looks promising.

In addition, on the economy sector, there is a massive market for small engine family cars and hatchbacks for young(ish) mothers to drive. Once again, if the recession kicks in less people will buy these new.

My advice - don't be an Arthur Daley and work out a good deal with a repairs garage. Offer some form of a guarantee. If people know that they can spend 3k on a car with you and that you will offer a 6 month guarantee or something like that then word of mouth will quickly advertise your business.

Good luck.

It`s an addition to other business interests, you are right sub 4K is THE market place in the next few years. I can source good quality for between 2.5-3K.

Sale of goods act..being fit for the purpose as decribed...is v. important.

Each vehicle will have MOT and warranty included in the price. The guys I rent the workshop to will give me preferential rates for any pre sale/post sale work.

Cars4less can`t see any downside...no where`s that sheepskin coat got to..:P

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It`s an addition to other business interests, you are right sub 4K is THE market place in the next few years. I can source good quality for between 2.5-3K.

Sale of goods act..being fit for the purpose as decribed...is v. important.

Each vehicle will have MOT and warranty included in the price. The guys I rent the workshop to will give me preferential rates for any pre sale/post sale work.

Cars4less can`t see any downside...no where`s that sheepskin coat got to..:P

I reakon you have already made up your mind but your just sh*tting yourself a little bit (understandably) not cause its a bad business venture but because its new, we all get a little creeped out by new stuff, you probably get excited when you think about it to which you mistake for nervousness.

Take a deep breath and do it i say.

Edited by theChuz

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I make no secret that I expect in my area (BN13 2) there should be falls of over 50% from peak to trough over next 3-4 years. For people like us, HPCers who save and wait, we will be rewarded with a affordable home with a managable morgage and decent quality of life.

I know that area quite well and wouldn't be at all surprised if you're right. EAs around there are still over-pricing (you'll know the agents I mean!) but the fact is prices are falling. Houses that were going for £180,000 are now going for £150,000 or slightly below and there's no evidence of a turnaround in that trend as far as I can see.

A little anecdote - a friend of mine bought in Brighton for 120,000 in Feb 2005. He now has to sell and has just had a valuation of 145,000. That's a supposed 25,000 increase in value in 11 months (when property all around has lost value). I'm going to be really interested to see what happens!

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I reakon you have already made up your mind but your just sh*tting yourself a little bit (understandably) not cause its a bad business venture but because its new, we all get a little creeped out by new stuff, you probably get excited when you think about it to which you mistake for nervousness.

Take a deep breath and do it i say.

It`s also an age thing Chuz, I`m 40, had more success than failure, but I tend to super analyse opportunites these days, which is no bad thing I guess. One scenario sees me having hived of enough money from the profits in 12 months to put down a sizeable deposit on the commercial mortgage to acquire the place, the other sees me struggling. Having a PMA is v. important in business IMHO, being laced with cynicism, realism and having lived a bit can help too ;)

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It`s also an age thing Chuz, I`m 40, had more success than failure, but I tend to super analyse opportunites these days, which is no bad thing I guess. One scenario sees me having hived of enough money from the profits in 12 months to put down a sizeable deposit on the commercial mortgage to acquire the place, the other sees me struggling. Having a PMA is v. important in business IMHO, being laced with cynicism, realism and having lived a bit can help too ;)

The way i would look at it , if you dont do it, is when your 50 will you regret not taking the oppotunity and trying to make a go of it.

It would be silly of me to try and give you advice i think know you are probably more qualified in every aspect than me to make the decision and to make it work.

But since its not my money anyways, i say do it :) Of course if you already feel half dead at 40 and think it would be to much for you to take on, pass it by. Or make it work for 5 years and employ some snot nose kid to run the place for you.

Chances are though you dont feel half dead and as long as you have a possible exit which leaves you with your shirt then give it a try.

Easy for me to say, not my money or my life :lol:

EDITED:

My mental image is someone poking you with a stick and saying to the person standing next to him .. has this one got any fight left in him.

Perhaps i need to lay off the sugar

Edited by theChuz

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It`s an addition to other business interests, you are right sub 4K is THE market place in the next few years. I can source good quality for between 2.5-3K.

Sale of goods act..being fit for the purpose as decribed...is v. important.

Each vehicle will have MOT and warranty included in the price. The guys I rent the workshop to will give me preferential rates for any pre sale/post sale work.

Cars4less can`t see any downside...no where`s that sheepskin coat got to..:P

my personal view on this is that i think things may turn full circle and a lot of people will commute on small motorbikes and scooters.

in the 1960's the japanese bought out the C90 and people where shocked at just how reliable the things were.

i bet the chinese will take over the low end scooter and motorbike market. have a look on ebay for names like X-Stream, Moto Rama, Bashan, ST, Hongdou, Chituma, Kinroad, BTR etc etc. Reckon on about 70-80mph and circa 100mpg which will look pretty tempting if oil goes to $100 or so. most of these bikes are trail bikes with long travel suspension which is just what you need to cope with the rotten state of our roads.

wait until the chinese get hold larger engines - the suzuki GS500 engine has been out for nearly 30 years and although not the most sophisticated makes a good commuter.

the same pattern will probably repeat in cars - google for chery

there might be a significant demand for the renault logan - http://www.renault-logan.eastrolog.com/

the UK consumer is historially very snobbish about cars - give 'em a few years of a downturn and they'll soon change their tune. one thing i remember about the last recession is that a lot of the second hand dealers stock was a load of rubbish. perhaps because people held onto their good cars for longer.

i guess this won't happen this time around - there have been record car sales of about 2.5 million per annum for the last 4-5 years, so there is plenty of stock out there

good luck with it! :)

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is the correct one, yet you have this nagging doubt? I `ll tell you for why I ask, but firstly let me point out that I`m a huge fan of this place for a variety of reasons.

I ask due to me having to make a decision on a potential business venture. My research has been very thorough, the market is growing/will continue to grow IMHO, it is to all intents recession proof and yet I have one nagging doubt and I`m beginning to term it "The curse of HPC" :o

It has, as previously mentioned in Paradox`s thread below, dawned on me that the weight of opinion on this forum is not just bearish on property, but also negative on so many other issues, that it could begin to alter/cloud your judgement. For example, I pointed the HPC site in the direction of a project manger of a web development company and she practically wet herself as to the content on here, yet I for the most part respect the "forum opinion" due to the high level of quality debate and the content, which is crucial to me. So laden with this decision I have to make, I keep weighing up several discussions on here: as to where the economy is heading etc..financial gloom, rates rocketing along with repos, the oil drying up, the majority working like modern day slaves to make ends meet....The Curse of HPC.co.uk? :(

In truth your reaction is extremely healthy.it shows you are looking at all the angles.

It would be more of a cause for a concern if you had just gone headlong and done it,looking at the carrot of potential rewards ahead but totally forgetting about the bloody great stick behind you called RISK.

(now where have we seen this type of person before???.....dotcoms....&BTL!!!!!!)

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this might be akin to the flip a coin reply but if you write down all the bad things that could go wrong -- ie what is the worst? Would you go bankrupt? Would that be the worst? Then think of what could go right, what would be the best outcome

Then think of how you would feel when you are 80 looking back at your life and you never tried this business opportunity.

Maybe worth a try...

Good luck

B)

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My mental image is someone poking you with a stick and saying to the person standing next to him .. has this one got any fight left in him. :o

Not since my primary school headmistress told my parents that I`d either be hanged or be Priminister has anyone given me such a description..er thanks Chuz :lol:

this might be akin to the flip a coin reply but if you write down all the bad things that could go wrong -- ie what is the worst? Would you go bankrupt? Would that be the worst? Then think of what could go right, what would be the best outcome

Then think of how you would feel when you are 80 looking back at your life and you never tried this business opportunity.

Maybe worth a try...

Good luck

It`s not that much of a risk really, I think it`s `cos the opportunity has come from nowhere that I need to act quickly and get up to speed. The worst case scenario is that after 12 months I review it, having not made many sales, sell up the stock I still have and walk away. Perhaps with minor losses. The upside is being able to put down a substantial deposit and get a commercial mortgage on an excellent property.

In truth your reaction is extremely healthy.it shows you are looking at all the angles.

It would be more of a cause for a concern if you had just gone headlong and done it,looking at the carrot of potential rewards ahead but totally forgetting about the bloody great stick behind you called RISK.

(now where have we seen this type of person before???.....dotcoms....&BTL!!!!!!)

Yep it is a risk, I reckon I`m mitigating that from just about every angle.

Thanks guys for all the suggestions/imput. :)

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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