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El_Pirata

Mega Bearish Article In Executive Intelligence Review

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Some choice extracts:

Like the rotten old house in Charles Dickens's Little Dorrit, the British economy is teetering. Last year's speculative frenzy in the housing market was apparently squashed in 2005, so now some are talking of housing prices going on "crabwise" —but this cannot last for long. In reality, the situation is like that unreal morning in Dickens's book, after the great speculator Mr. Merdle's famous bank had already crashed, but none of the victims knew it yet. Now, the housing inflation bubble, the "basis" of the whole crazy structure, is ready to go...

...Prices have a long way to fall. The Office of the Deputy Prime Minister reported Dec. 13 that the cost of the average property is £186,103, which is more than eight times the average salary. Traditionally, mortgage lenders granted loans for houses up to 3.5 times a buyer's annual salary. Warnings are out that, even in the current stagnating market, the average price in some areas of the U.K. could break through the £200,000 barrier in 2006—if the whole house of cards does not tumble first...

...Meanwhile, the "buy-to-let" market is in trouble; big lenders, including the Portman Building Society, are now refusing to accept new applications for buy-to-rent mortgages on new properties, because of fears about the stability of the market. The buy-to-let market had been sustaining the housing bubble, since house prices are so high that new buyers just cannot get in the market. On Nov. 25, the British Property Federation warned that some lenders were offering new types of mortgages which do not require rental income to be more than the monthly mortgage interest repayments, while previously, they had required rental income to be at least 130% of interest, allowing for other costs—such as rental vacancies, arrears, and so on. British Property Federation officer for rentals, Ian Fletcher, warned that "at this point in the rental cycle ... things [are] not as buoyant as they have been.... We would be worried if these types of deals became prevalent." The arrears on buy-to-let loans have doubled in the past 18 months, to 0.7%, almost as high as 0.88% for conventional mortgages...

...Consumers took advantage of the Bank of England's August interest rate cut to dump their debt onto their mortgages. There was a net reduction in credit card debt in August, but an 8% rise in home loans. This is hardly a safety net. In the third quarter, the Department for Constitutional Affairs reported a 66% year-on-year increase in mortgage repossession orders in England and Wales, to nearly 20,000, while the total number of homeowners being taken to court by lenders rose 55% to nearly 30,000. The Council for Mortgage Lenders has predicted that more than 10,000 homes will be repossessed by the year end. These numbers are low compared to those of the 1990s housing crash, when some 70,000 houses a year were repossessed, but they have been rising steadily. In the 1990s, the critical factor was high interest rates; now it is high personal debt...

And my personal favourite:

Germany built two high-speed railway lines and three airport terminals in the time it took us to have a planning inquiry to build Terminal 5 at Heathrow. This is no way for the fourth biggest economy on earth to operate."

Well worth a read

http://www.larouchepub.com/other/2005/3250brit_economy.html

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And my personal favourite:

Germany built two high-speed railway lines and three airport terminals in the time it took us to have a planning inquiry to build Terminal 5 at Heathrow. This is no way for the fourth biggest economy on earth to operate."

More the fool them. The high speed railways will be useful, the airports are almost certainly a mistake, as the airline industry will get hammered in the next 10 years by high oil prices. It will not turn out to be such a bad thing if we don't waste money on new airports we aren't going to need. The Germans are crazy enough to be getting out of nuclear power right at the time they should be increasing thier build. God knows what our planning system is going to make of siting 20-30 new reactor units.

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Some choice extracts:

Like the rotten old house in Charles Dickens's Little Dorrit, the British economy is teetering. Last year's speculative frenzy in the housing market was apparently squashed in 2005, so now some are talking of housing prices going on "crabwise" —but this cannot last for long. In reality, the situation is like that unreal morning in Dickens's book, after the great speculator Mr. Merdle's famous bank had already crashed, but none of the victims knew it yet. Now, the housing inflation bubble, the "basis" of the whole crazy structure, is ready to go...

...Prices have a long way to fall. The Office of the Deputy Prime Minister reported Dec. 13 that the cost of the average property is £186,103, which is more than eight times the average salary. Traditionally, mortgage lenders granted loans for houses up to 3.5 times a buyer's annual salary. Warnings are out that, even in the current stagnating market, the average price in some areas of the U.K. could break through the £200,000 barrier in 2006—if the whole house of cards does not tumble first...

...Meanwhile, the "buy-to-let" market is in trouble; big lenders, including the Portman Building Society, are now refusing to accept new applications for buy-to-rent mortgages on new properties, because of fears about the stability of the market. The buy-to-let market had been sustaining the housing bubble, since house prices are so high that new buyers just cannot get in the market. On Nov. 25, the British Property Federation warned that some lenders were offering new types of mortgages which do not require rental income to be more than the monthly mortgage interest repayments, while previously, they had required rental income to be at least 130% of interest, allowing for other costs—such as rental vacancies, arrears, and so on. British Property Federation officer for rentals, Ian Fletcher, warned that "at this point in the rental cycle ... things [are] not as buoyant as they have been.... We would be worried if these types of deals became prevalent." The arrears on buy-to-let loans have doubled in the past 18 months, to 0.7%, almost as high as 0.88% for conventional mortgages...

...Consumers took advantage of the Bank of England's August interest rate cut to dump their debt onto their mortgages. There was a net reduction in credit card debt in August, but an 8% rise in home loans. This is hardly a safety net. In the third quarter, the Department for Constitutional Affairs reported a 66% year-on-year increase in mortgage repossession orders in England and Wales, to nearly 20,000, while the total number of homeowners being taken to court by lenders rose 55% to nearly 30,000. The Council for Mortgage Lenders has predicted that more than 10,000 homes will be repossessed by the year end. These numbers are low compared to those of the 1990s housing crash, when some 70,000 houses a year were repossessed, but they have been rising steadily. In the 1990s, the critical factor was high interest rates; now it is high personal debt...

And my personal favourite:

Germany built two high-speed railway lines and three airport terminals in the time it took us to have a planning inquiry to build Terminal 5 at Heathrow. This is no way for the fourth biggest economy on earth to operate."

Well worth a read

http://www.larouchepub.com/other/2005/3250brit_economy.html

4th Biggest economy on earth???

I'd find that hard to believe,

USA, Japan, China and Germany all have larger ecomomies than the UK.

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India and China surely have larger economies than ours.............In economies such as theirs more economic activity than here goes unrecorded

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A guy I knew a couple of years back lent me a lot of Larouche's stuff.

Some of his technical analysis is first class, but he has an insane view of world history. Secret Jewish banking cabals migrating over the centuries from Venice to London with outliers in New York running the world behind the scenes as they go, that sort of stuff.

Anything written by the Larouche organisation on any subject will show Britain in the worst possible light.

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Peak Uranium Malco?

“Three massive claims are being made for Britain building a new generation of nuclear stations: first, it is the only way that Britain can meet its ambitious targets for reducing carbon emissions; secondly, it is the only reliable option available if we are to fill the 'energy gap' left by declining sources of fossil fuels; thirdly, it is the best way of ensuring that our energy comes from 'secure' sources, rather than unstable oil-rich oligarchies. These claims are at best specious, at worst untrue. Take carbon emission. There is a blithe notion that nuclear power is 'clean' — it emits no CO² and therefore does not contribute to global warming. This argument has been systematically taken apart over the past five years by two independent experts, Jan Willem Storm van Leeuwen and Philip Bartlett Smith, one a chemist and energy specialist, the other a nuclear physicist, who between them have a lifetime ’s experience in the nuclear industry. What they have done is look at the entire life cycle of a nuclear power station, from the mining of the uranium to the storage of the resulting nuclear waste. Their conclusions make grim reading for any nuclear advocate. They say that at the present rate of use, worldwide supplies of rich uranium ore will soon become exhausted, perhaps within the next decade. Nuclear power stations of the future will have to reply on second-grade ore, which requires huge amounts of conventional energy to refine it… At present, about 440 nuclear reactors supply about 2 per cent of demand. The Massachusetts Institute of Technology calculates that 1,000 more would be needed to raise this even to 10 per cent of need. At this point, the search for new sources of ore would become critical. Where would they come from? Not friendly Canada, which produces most of it at present, but places like Kazakhstan, hardly the most stable of democracies. So much for ‘secure’ sources of energy. We would find ourselves out of the oil-producing frying pan, right in the middle of the ore-manufacturing fire.”

Who says nuclear power is clean?

London Times, 23 November 2005

And here are some comments I recently received on Nuclear power - food for thought

Costs

Nuclear is an energy source that has always been costlier than promised, has failed to attract private investment and has always had to rely on state subsidies. The billions of pounds in subsidies that nuclear power has gobbled up in Britain is a far cry from the original promise of it being an electricity source that would be “too cheap to meter”. This week, the Sunday Times reported that the government’s pro-nuclear chief scientific adviser has suggested putting a levy on consumer’s power bills to help pay for the extra costs of nuclear power.

Nuclear Waste

One of the financial barriers to nuclear power is the problem of waste. No solution has been found to safely dispose of this hazardous material, and the Nuclear Decommissioning Authority has estimated that dealing with the existing waste from civil nuclear power is likely to cost the UK taxpayer almost £60bn. This material will remain hazardous and have to be safeguarded for tens of thousands of years. Although less waste is likely to be produced by the proposed new nuclear reactors, it will pose a similar problem, as it will contain a higher proportion of high-level radioactive waste.

Security of Supply

Nuclear power fails to provide a secure and competitive energy supply. The security of supply of electricity from nuclear power has always been undermined by technical problems resulting often in lengthy and costly shutdowns. The Wylfa power station, for instance, has only operated at around 56% of its full capacity since it opened.

Radioactive Discharges

The possibility of nuclear proliferation also increases both the problems of routine radioactive discharges to the atmosphere and seas and the likelihood of nuclear accidents. Radioactive contamination from Sellafield can be found throughout the Irish Sea and restrictions resulting from the radioactive fallout from Chernobyl in 1986 still affect 359 farms covering 53,000 hectares of land in North Wales. In May of this year, it was revealed that 83,000 litres of a nuclear liquor, reportedly containing enough plutonium to make 20 nuclear weapons, had been leaking undetected for at least nine months from a badly designed pipe at the Thorp reprocessing plant in Cumbria. It has also been reported (The Independent 28-11-05) that Nirex, the nuclear waste body, has warned that most nuclear station sites are threatened by climate change because they are vulnerable to coastal erosion and a rise in the sea level.

Carbon Emissions

Is nuclear power ‘carbon free’? The whole process of mining, processing and transportation of the uranium ore and other materials, the construction and decommissioning of nuclear power stations and the storing of waste involves a significant level of activity that releases greenhouse gases into the atmosphere. It is estimated that nuclear power produces fifty per cent more greenhouse gases than wind energy.

Over the last fifty years, nuclear power has had a fair chance to prove itself but has failed to deliver economic, safe or clean energy and has left a legacy of hazardous waste and financial costs for future generations. It is once again being promoted as a quick fix solution to an energy challenge but in reality amounts to no more than an expensive fig leaf to cover the embarrassment of failed attempts to make adequate reductions in carbon dioxide emissions.

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This is no way for the fourthThirteenth biggest economy on earth to operate."

http://www.larouchepub.com/other/2005/3250brit_economy.html

We were fourth In the Global Economy Rankings when Labour came to Power, We're now Thirteenth in the global rankings, after Gordon Clown's "Econmoic Miracle!"

Some Miracle! :D

Edited by A Fool & His Borrowed Money

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Wasn't he the one behind the 'British Royal Family ruling the world' idea which floats around, and that the Beatles were MI6 agents? Or was that some other guy?

Yep this is him.

Lyndon LaRouche is widely seen in the US as a (very?) right-wing/ libertarian fantasist. <_<

I wouldnt trust anything that comes from this guy.

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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