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Realistbear

Achilles Heal Of The Housing Market

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Here is an interesting analysis from the US where the bubble markets exist mostly on the 2 coasts:

http://uk.us.biz.yahoo.com/rb/060105/econo...using.html?.v=1

"Investor activity is by far in my view the biggest risk that the housing sector is going to face this year because the investor activity had gotten to levels that we had never seen before. We're basically in new territory there," said David Lereah, chief economist for the National Association of Realtors.
"There is a risk that investor shares could really come down significantly in some of our very hot markets," Lereah said on a conference call organized by the Homeownership Alliance, a group of trade and professional associations.
The loss of investors would be compounded if those buyers not only stopped buying but put their properties back on the market, said David Seiders, chief economist with the National Association of Home Builders.

Looking ahead into 2006 we are seeing, at best, a levelling in prices. Not many investors are going to be attracted by zero capital appreciation with rental returns below mortgage costs. SIPPS U-Turn will make BTL even less attractive causing enough to want to get out of the market and cause the long awaited HPC.

IMHO 2006 will continue the downward trend in house prices begun in 2005 but with greater momentum.

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Having just come back from the US, I can say that one difference between US and UK attitudes towards any potential house price crash is the general insouciance, almost devil-may-care attitude towards the possibility in the US in comparision to UK, where people wring their hands and check websites like this on an hourly basis. I'm generalizing, but there is not the sense of fear about the possibility of a HPC in the US like there is here -- I'm not sure why that is.

jrb

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Having just come back from the US, I can say that one difference between US and UK attitudes towards any potential house price crash is the general insouciance, almost devil-may-care attitude towards the possibility in the US in comparision to UK, where people wring their hands and check websites like this on an hourly basis. I'm generalizing, but there is not the sense of fear about the possibility of a HPC in the US like there is here -- I'm not sure why that is.

jrb

My God Man..www.ushousepricecrash.com and www.housepricecrash.us both available! Get back there, England expects every man.... :D

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Having just come back from the US, I can say that one difference between US and UK attitudes towards any potential house price crash is the general insouciance, almost devil-may-care attitude towards the possibility in the US in comparision to UK, where people wring their hands and check websites like this on an hourly basis. I'm generalizing, but there is not the sense of fear about the possibility of a HPC in the US like there is here -- I'm not sure why that is.

jrb

I got back from the US in July 2005 and found that there is a huge interest in the bubble and whether it will crash--especially in CA.

The latest:

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/060106/home_orders.html?.v=2

Homebuilders Post Sharp 4Q Order Declines

Del Mar, Calif.-based Brookfield Homes said orders
plunged 39 percent
in the fourth quarter due to a slowdown in sales in the San Diego and Washington markets as well as a shortage of inventory available for sale.

See the desparate spin from the VI? Orders plunge 39 percent and yet there is a shortage of houses to sell--which is it --I am confused!

Edited by Realistbear

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Having just come back from the US, I can say that one difference between US and UK attitudes towards any potential house price crash is the general insouciance, almost devil-may-care attitude towards the possibility in the US in comparision to UK, where people wring their hands and check websites like this on an hourly basis. I'm generalizing, but there is not the sense of fear about the possibility of a HPC in the US like there is here -- I'm not sure why that is.

jrb

Read an interesting article on Gold Eagle I think (tried to find it but no luck - wish they had a serach feature on editorials). The crux was that US investors have a "gambling and prozac" mentality. Easy come easy go, your not a good businessman until you have gone bust a few times.

I think the investors in the US will weather the storm far better than in the UK: where ordinary people have seized on an opportunity of a lifetime and are trying to desperately hold onto it because thay have no way of making that money by any other means.

Interestingly I think the Chinese are similar to the Americans in that thay will try in business several times until they make a success.

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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