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paradox

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What follows below is a quote from Sealaw, who has not yet got new topic posting rights. It ties in with a (depressing) recent anacdotal that I have - see following post....

"I'm not allowed to start a new topic so have put this post here in the hope that if any of the "elite" posters who are allowed to to start new topics think it might be of general interest then they can place it somewhere more visible.

Basically I wanted to tell you that I've recently been gazumped...I know I can't believe it and its really a kick in the nuts. The story is that in October this year a house came up for sale that I'd always said to the missus we wouild buy if we could (its just one of those place that you really can picture yourself in you know?). Anyway we knew it had originally been up for sale earlier in the year (in February) for £370k and not sold, so we were amazed when it came back on the marekt in October for 380k. This is in the South East, so I didn't think prices had gone up AT ALL. Anyway, big negotiation ensued, and eventually we agreed on a price of £350. Still seemed a lot but, aas I said, we had our hear set on it. Would you believe that over £1000 in survey costs later we get a call from the estate agent informing me the deal is off because someone has paid the full asking price (380)!!!

Anyway, apart from my dissapointment, frustration and anger at lost money, its occured to me to put this story to you guys (I've been a fan of the site for ages) to see if anyone can give me any comfort as to what this means. Does it mean the property market is really undergoing a resurgence...thats too depressing to think about, was I just the victim of a nutter with 380K, and was I stupid to try and buy in the first place (I currently rent).

I have to say this shakes my faith in a crash coming, but I still want ot believe!

Thanks for letting me vent."

Edited by paradox

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I posted this here because it seemed that sealaw has fallen foul of the anti spamming and anti troll devices. If you check his first post he actually engages in a very pleasant converstation with Durch.

Anyway. In the interests of scientific rigour we do need to get all sides of the argument. I have two friends who are also looking to buy, at full rates, in London.

I am studying for a PhD. These guys have already got theirs - one in economics!!!

Their deposit wil be scraped together with loans from both parents and a whole lot of savings. They will go for a three bed terrace in a cr*ppy part of East London. They want to start a family.

It is not logical, captain. As we have established, if prices do rise, then they will be priced out of a trade up. If prices do fall, then they will lose a lot. If prices stagnate then they have a huge loan to pay off. If there is wage inflation - it will help them.

However there is life in the market yet, unfortunately. What keeps me sane is the remarkable beginners luck I am having on the stock market and with Gold. In addition to the nice thought of knowing that in a few months time I will be renegotiating a cheaper rent, or moving to a larger and nicer house for less rent. Anyway I may be moving abroad soon.

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I posted this here because it seemed that sealaw has fallen foul of the anti spamming and anti troll devices. If you check his first post he actually engages in a very pleasant converstation with Durch.

Anyway. In the interests of scientific rigour we do need to get all sides of the argument. I have two friends who are also looking to buy, at full rates, in London.

I am studying for a PhD. These guys have already got theirs - one in economics!!!

Their deposit wil be scraped together with loans from both parents and a whole lot of savings. They will go for a three bed terrace in a cr*ppy part of East London. They want to start a family.

It is not logical, captain. As we have established, if prices do rise, then they will be priced out of a trade up. If prices do fall, then they will lose a lot. If prices stagnate then they have a huge loan to pay off. If there is wage inflation - it will help them.

However there is life in the market yet, unfortunately. What keeps me sane is the remarkable beginners luck I am having on the stock market and with Gold. In addition to the nice thought of knowing that in a few months time I will be renegotiating a cheaper rent, or moving to a larger and nicer house for less rent. Anyway I may be moving abroad soon.

Thanks for sorting me out Paradox, appreciated.

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thats too depressing to think about, was I just the victim of a nutter with 380K, and was I stupid to try and buy in the first place (I currently rent).

I have to say this shakes my faith in a crash coming, but I still want ot believe!

Thanks for letting me vent.

No. Remember this was the house where you were happy to forego your bear tendencies. Now suppose you are not the only person who wanted this (desirable) house and an offer is already there. If they also wanted it the only thing they could do was to sensibly trump your offer and they did.

You are forgetting one thing about the housing market. Unlike gold and shares houses are not identical, in fact they are unique. Even in the worst market, dream houses will sell, possibly even at silly prices.

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No. Remember this was the house where you were happy to forego your bear tendencies. Now suppose you are not the only person who wanted this (desirable) house and an offer is already there. If they also wanted it the only thing they could do was to sensibly trump your offer and they did.

You are forgetting one thing about the housing market. Unlike gold and shares houses are not identical, in fact they are unique. Even in the worst market, dream houses will sell, possibly even at silly prices.

Yep, I see what you mean and it makes sense. Tell you what though, you were right to put the "desirable" in brackets...believe me you don't get alot for 380k!

Cheers

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Yep, I see what you mean and it makes sense. Tell you what though, you were right to put the "desirable" in brackets...believe me you don't get alot for 380k!

Cheers

Put it in perspective, though.

380,000 pounds is over 900,000 Australian dollars, which is roughly the amount I have accumulated from nearly 30 year's work at above average wages (and certainly an above average savings rate) for Oz.

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"I'm not allowed to start a new topic so have put this post here in the hope that if any of the "elite" posters who are allowed to to start new topics think it might be of general interest then they can place it somewhere more visible.

Sealaw, you can start new topics, they will just be in a queue for mod approval. Try it!

You can also request an upgrade to "Member Status" in the upgrade subforum.

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Put it in perspective, though.

380,000 pounds is over 900,000 Australian dollars, which is roughly the amount I have accumulated from nearly 30 year's work at above average wages (and certainly an above average savings rate) for Oz.

I'm married to a Canadian so know how 380 translates into the dollars of a country where the housing market seems so friendly and affordable. For 380k I could buy the sort of pad that dreams are made of out there! Not sure how benign the property market is in Aus theses days...I've heard anecdotally that Sydney in particular is very expensive if you're earning Aussie $'s.

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said, we had our hear set on it. Would you believe that over £1000 in survey costs later we get a call from the estate agent informing me the deal is off because someone has paid the full asking price (380)!!!

Has the sale actually completed ?

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Has the sale actually completed ?

I have tried to post on my experiences in the South East on a few occasions.

Guildford - Friend sold for full asking

Farnham Friend sold for aprox 5% under

Hampton Court area friend sold for 10K over after a bidding war

I am basically a bear but really think we need a more balenced view of anecdotals and CRUCIALLY where the locations are and what the property types are before calling a crash. In all three cases above they were family homes in catchment areas..

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Sealaw2000, I'm sorry if you feel that you have lost the house of your dreams.

Two points however (one of which might be consolation to you):

1. The general mass-market perception has not accepted that prices in many areas are falling. Therefore there will be people who persist in paying 'over the odds' for a house.

2. If the buyers have had an asking price offer accepted, what chance of it reaching completion? In my experience, those that rush in and pay the asking price are more likely to back out of the deal. People (like yourself) who analyse more closely what they can afford and offer appropriately are more likely to see the deal through.

If the house hasn't reached exchange of contracts then you might get a second chance.

Xil.

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I decided to take a day off and visited a few local EAs. What follows is gloomy.

At each of 3 EAs I visited, there were 2 folks on the 'phone arranging viewings, non-stop. Must've overheard 30 bookings being made in as many minutes.

I guess things are often said to be darkest before the dawn. I hope that's true in this case, because I'm becoming more pessimistic (and bemused) about a HPC as each day passes.

There you go..........

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...Anyway, big negotiation ensued, and eventually we agreed on a price of £350. Still seemed a lot but, aas I said, we had our hear set on it. Would you believe that over £1000 in survey costs later we get a call from the estate agent informing me the deal is off because someone has paid the full asking price (380)!!!......

Looks like the new buyer has been well and truely stiched up by the agents, I don't imagine they will be too happy to learn that they paid £30k over an accepted offer and the agents are probably doing everything they can to stop them finding out, would be a shame if they somehow found out the truth <_<

I would just chalk it up to experience, don't waste your money even looking to buy at the top of the market

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I'm married to a Canadian so know how 380 translates into the dollars of a country where the housing market seems so friendly and affordable. For 380k I could buy the sort of pad that dreams are made of out there! Not sure how benign the property market is in Aus theses days...I've heard anecdotally that Sydney in particular is very expensive if you're earning Aussie $'s.

Yeah but Canada in general is somewhat BLAND. In capitals because I've lived there and returned to the UK because of it. The houses are not that well built and depreciate a lot quicker than our do. So you buy the dream like shed , and then what??? You still have to make a living .. getting work over there is NOT easy. The Canadians do not recognise your qualifications unless you are in the medical proffesion. To be honest I thought that was a bit of a scam.

The grass is always greener so they say.

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Anyway, apart from my dissapointment, frustration and anger at lost money, its occured to me to put this story to you guys (I've been a fan of the site for ages) to see if anyone can give me any comfort as to what this means. Does it mean the property market is really undergoing a resurgence...thats too depressing to think about, was I just the victim of a nutter with 380K, and was I stupid to try and buy in the first place (I currently rent).

I have to say this shakes my faith in a crash coming, but I still want ot believe!

Thanks for letting me vent."

Your story is v. sad but I don’t feel surprised by it and yes, I believe you were the victim of 'nutter with 380K'. There are still a lot of them around in the London/S.East. I posted here in despair as the last of my renting friends has now bought for crazy price in London and in response others gave similar examples. The key reason people keep doing it is stupidly low interest rates. I've had people tell me over and over that we are now living in a 'low interest rate environment' I think they are living in cloud cuckoo land but there you go; they believe it. People cannot accept the possibility that rates could move significantly higher. Until they realise that the colossal mortgage you need to get on the ladder in SE England could and will cost them significantly more and maybe cripple them finacially, I can’t see that all important change in sentiment happening in this part of the country. I just hope rates move in the right direction this year.

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....victim of a nutter with 380K, ....

The nutter is oblivious to the property market. He/she still believes property prices are rising and the UK economy is good.

Nobody told he/she about HPC www and probably doesn't even have internet access.

How much would a one page advertisement for this site cost in the national newspaper?

Would an ad. have a detrimental affect on the property market if more people come on to this site?

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excellent idea matey ... a full page ad in one of the tabloids.... can get a full page mono in the Sun for c.£40k (ratecard) or a bit cheaper in the Daily Mirror at £29k. Anyone know a good media buyer? :D

Joking apart, anybody got any good ideas on how we can (cheaply!) precipitate this crash...

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excellent idea matey ... a full page ad in one of the tabloids.... can get a full page mono in the Sun for c.£40k (ratecard) or a bit cheaper in the Daily Mirror at £29k. Anyone know a good media buyer? :D

Joking apart, anybody got any good ideas on how we can (cheaply!) precipitate this crash...

Rent ....

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Put it in perspective, though.

380,000 pounds is over 900,000 Australian dollars, which is roughly the amount I have accumulated from nearly 30 year's work at above average wages (and certainly an above average savings rate) for Oz.

The sad thing is a roughly equivalent level of property for that in oz would be about $AU350-450k in most places except sydney.

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excellent idea matey ... a full page ad in one of the tabloids.... can get a full page mono in the Sun for c.£40k (ratecard) or a bit cheaper in the Daily Mirror at £29k. Anyone know a good media buyer? :D

Joking apart, anybody got any good ideas on how we can (cheaply!) precipitate this crash...

Yea...

Whenever one of my friends mentions buying I laugh out loud and then recite utter financial jargon (historical rate changes etc) very slowly and deliberately. Then give a long pause and say “I hope you know what you’re doing. Because I don’t think you understand a word I’m saying.”

Then say “I think you should wait a while, buy low sell high that’s my strategy, fancy coming to the pub”

You can probably guess most my friends are in their early 20’s so scaring the sh*t out of them is easy.

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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