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Xil

Fearing A Spring Bounce

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Don't worry, I haven't become any less convinced that house prices are gradually on their way down.

But I'm concerned that there is sufficient 'positive' news in the offing to encourage people to put up their asking prices when new properties come to the market during Jan/Feb/March.

To get a sale, reduced (realistic) prices will still be required. But sentiment is the key and I'm not sure that this winter is denting market confidence as I thought it would.

And I fear that the Bank of England will cut interest rates to prolong the borrowing 'party'.

Tell me I'm wrong and falling asking prices will be reported in the coming months.

Xil.

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If my location is any guide the more expensive properties,( according to an agent contact of mine :rolleyes:) are those generating most interest. Also suggests that in the last 6 months although sales volume was down by 50% compared to the peak the average sale cost is up significantly. Therefore you could be right, less volume in the next six months, but plenty trying to bail out of their relatively expensive places could skew the real situation.

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I've seen data posted showing that there has always been a spring bounce, even during the last HP collapse. It's the rest of the year that takes the prices down.

Don't be too downcast if you see prices rise in the spring. It may not last...

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I'm concerned that there is sufficient 'positive' news in the offing to encourage people to put up their asking prices when new properties come to the market during Jan/Feb/March.

I always suspected our old friend the dead cat had a pogo stick hidden behind his back. This one could run & run thanks to softening interest rates, threats of divorce, and general Monkey business.

The good news is that no matter how much energy the cat has at the start, it can't bounce forever... especially when the cat's corpse is already so bloated with debt. Sooner or later it's going to burst.

This might be a good time to buy some wellies and a mac.

Andrew McP

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If my location is any guide the more expensive properties,( according to an agent contact of mine :rolleyes:) are those generating most interest. Also suggests that in the last 6 months although sales volume was down by 50% compared to the peak the average sale cost is up significantly. Therefore you could be right, less volume in the next six months, but plenty trying to bail out of their relatively expensive places could skew the real situation.

Whereabouts is this, CL?

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There is endless, non-stop positive news all the time.

DESPITE this ongoing spin - the housing market is screwed. Everybody in the country now knows if they put their house on the market at too high a price they won't even get viewings. And, even at a sensible price, houses are taking a long time to shift. (Read the ex-pats forum for REAL world experiences of the property market - not VI spin.)

Redrow Homes - sales worst for 30 years.

But, no problem, everything in the garden is rosy and prices are continuing their never-to-be-stopped climb.

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Don't worry, I haven't become any less convinced that house prices are gradually on their way down.

But I'm concerned that there is sufficient 'positive' news in the offing to encourage people to put up their asking prices when new properties come to the market during Jan/Feb/March.

To get a sale, reduced (realistic) prices will still be required. But sentiment is the key and I'm not sure that this winter is denting market confidence as I thought it would.

And I fear that the Bank of England will cut interest rates to prolong the borrowing 'party'.

Tell me I'm wrong and falling asking prices will be reported in the coming months.

Xil.

I think you might be right, even during the last crash there were short peroids where prices began to rise again only to continue on their downward trajectory later on. So, prices could rise a bit in the short term (spring maybe) but it wont necessarily continue for the rest of the year.

Edited by 50:50

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I think you might be right, even during the last crash there were short peroids where prices began to rise again only to continue on their downward trajectory later on. So, prices could rise a bit in the short term (spring maybe) but it wont necessarily continue for the rest of the year.

There will indeed be a spring bounce, in "real" price terms it will be relatively insignificant and by the end of the year the "rises" will probably be under that of inflation.

However expect to see some juicy headlines in the form of may house prices 50% up on the same time last year ...

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as with last time, they will hang onto to every melting flake of positive housing news all the way to the flat bottom. expect more utter ******** over the next few months.

after all. the bbc cant tell that to all those people that bought those 'bargain' 180k birmingham properties on homes under the hammer can they ?

as for the sellers. well the greed and dumbness is beyond reason. i guess they will put the prices up of the homes that already are not selling as they are. are the general uk public a bunch of greedy morons?

yes. of course they are.

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There will indeed be a spring bounce, in "real" price terms it will be relatively insignificant and by the end of the year the "rises" will probably be under that of inflation.

However expect to see some juicy headlines in the form of may house prices 50% up on the same time last year ...

When does anyone on this site accept that house price rises are because house prices are rising? As far as I can tell, this site has been around for a while now, and the general response to any news of prices is usually along the lines of 'Well, they would say that, wouldn't they. Just you watch, prices will go down, then we'll see some tears.'

I don't claim to have any idea what prices are going to do, not do I have any insight into how news on the property market reaches the media. I'm just wondering how long people here can keep saying the same thing everytime we're told prices are rising.

If there is a crash in 2025, will you all be on here saying 'I knew it!!!'?

I'm not trying to have a go at anyone, just a bit bemused and confused by what I read on here.

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When does anyone on this site accept that house price rises are because house prices are rising? As far as I can tell, this site has been around for a while now, and the general response to any news of prices is usually along the lines of 'Well, they would say that, wouldn't they. Just you watch, prices will go down, then we'll see some tears.'

I don't claim to have any idea what prices are going to do, not do I have any insight into how news on the property market reaches the media. I'm just wondering how long people here can keep saying the same thing everytime we're told prices are rising.

If there is a crash in 2025, will you all be on here saying 'I knew it!!!'?

I'm not trying to have a go at anyone, just a bit bemused and confused by what I read on here.

The market is far more mixed than is being reported. Some areas and property types are already falling. Some areas and properties types are stagnant, some have seen rises. However most "rises" in the South East and London are not even keeping pace with inflation so to call them rises is misleading. And yes the site shouts wolf too often.

Without any huge jumps in interest rates property will be a sluggish "investment" that will make very little real money for the next few years, however I expect to see some far more alarmist coulmn inches in our national press by 2008/9 when the true state of the market becomes clear.

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When does anyone on this site accept that house price rises are because house prices are rising? As far as I can tell, this site has been around for a while now, and the general response to any news of prices is usually along the lines of 'Well, they would say that, wouldn't they. Just you watch, prices will go down, then we'll see some tears.'

I don't claim to have any idea what prices are going to do, not do I have any insight into how news on the property market reaches the media. I'm just wondering how long people here can keep saying the same thing everytime we're told prices are rising.

If there is a crash in 2025, will you all be on here saying 'I knew it!!!'?

I'm not trying to have a go at anyone, just a bit bemused and confused by what I read on here.

Er... one and a half years of falls followed by a small rise according to hometrack...... However we are down after and and a half years. If house prices rise because prices are rising, they also fall because prices are falling...

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Looks like game over for the bears in the near term (i.e. next 6 months)

Service sector expanding above trend and mortgage lending up because there is massive pent up demand.

Retail sector struggle's because people are getting their credit card debt un control - so much for all those idiotic sheeple. Personally, I give the majority of people much more credit for being sensible that the arrogant know-it-all bears on here do.

It seems that people are confident to invest in their homes, seeing this as a sensible place to invest their money over the long term.

Sorry guys, but there is no depression and no house price correction - I just can't see it, sorry !

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ruisort7

I don't claim to have any idea what prices are going to do, not do I have any insight into how news on the property market reaches the media.

its because we on here do

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Looks like game over for the bears in the near term (i.e. next 6 months)

The next six months will be approximately the first 15 minutes of a football match.

Slightly too early (by about three years) to claim that the game is over.

During June of last year I was nearly prepared to pay £275,000 for a house. That same house left the market and is now back on at £250,000.

I calculate that by waiting six months, I may have already saved myself £30,000 in mortgage payments. Even if I decide to jump ship and call "game over" for my own adventure, I feel happy that I haven't bought before now.

For those prepared to wait until the final whistle, the reward could be much greater.

And you are giving the British public credit for astute financial management?!!! A lot of people know what they are doing but many have been driven by greed and have been living beyond their means for years. They will get their rewards also.

Xil.

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imupnorth

you obviously didnt read the link

its saying any hope of rate cuts are over

duh

http://today.reuters.co.uk/news/newsArticl...OMY-BRITAIN.xml

PS if any one with any influence on this site can get me upgraded to vip it would be much appreciated - then a crucial story like this would have been posted hours ago under its own topic.

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The next six months will be approximately the first 15 minutes of a football match.

Slightly too early (by about three years) to claim that the game is over.

During June of last year I was nearly prepared to pay £275,000 for a house. That same house left the market and is now back on at £250,000.

I calculate that by waiting six months, I may have already saved myself £30,000 in mortgage payments. Even if I decide to jump ship and call "game over" for my own adventure, I feel happy that I haven't bought before now.

For those prepared to wait until the final whistle, the reward could be much greater.

And you are giving the British public credit for astute financial management?!!! A lot of people know what they are doing but many have been driven by greed and have been living beyond their means for years. They will get their rewards also.

Xil.

What happens if the game goes to extra time, then penalites, then sudden death, then a toss of a coin?...seriously I reckon the correction will be a very long drawn out affair. We all may look back in 15 years and pinpoint a crash, however, I do not think we can recognise it when we are in it (if that makes sense)

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For those prepared to wait until the final whistle, the reward could be much greater.

Forget the final whistle - I'm waiting till the stadium empties and the cleanup operation begins :P:lol:

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Don't worry, I haven't become any less convinced that house prices are gradually on their way down.

But I'm concerned that there is sufficient 'positive' news in the offing to encourage people to put up their asking prices when new properties come to the market during Jan/Feb/March.

To get a sale, reduced (realistic) prices will still be required. But sentiment is the key and I'm not sure that this winter is denting market confidence as I thought it would.

And I fear that the Bank of England will cut interest rates to prolong the borrowing 'party'.

Tell me I'm wrong and falling asking prices will be reported in the coming months.

Xil.

I feel that we can expect price rises for the first few months – and then it will all depend on the Bank of England’s interest rate decision – I and a STR’er and am also worried that I will see my savings eroded while house prices gain £10000 over the year.

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ruisort7

I don't claim to have any idea what prices are going to do, not do I have any insight into how news on the property market reaches the media.

its because we on here do

It's because you do? Can't we share?

Well, if it happens and it's bad enough to rid the world of estate agents, then I'll be raising a glass to all of you. Even if it doesn't happen and you can rid the world of estate agents, I'll raise a glass to you.

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imupnorth

you obviously didnt read the link

its saying any hope of rate cuts are over

duh

http://today.reuters.co.uk/news/newsArticl...OMY-BRITAIN.xml

So ? - it needs IRs to rise to stop this market. Even a 0.25% rise won't do the trick - it'll stop it, but it won't make it fall.

Let's be honest here, it just makes it likely that rates won't change and stay at 4.5%. This is the rate which is causing the market to start rising again anyway.

Also, its just one piece of news - the BoE was unlikely to do anything until February anyway. In the meantime, I think the market will keep picking up.

Oh I nearly forgot .... doh :D

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So ? - it needs IRs to rise to stop this market. Even a 0.25% rise won't do the trick - it'll stop it, but it won't make it fall.

Let's be honest here, it just makes it likely that rates won't change and stay at 4.5%. This is the rate which is causing the market to start rising again anyway.

Also, its just one piece of news - the BoE was unlikely to do anything until February anyway. In the meantime, I think the market will keep picking up.

Oh I nearly forgot .... doh :D

Hi,

I posted below. I looked at the figure breakdowns and their approval dates, I think these could contain a large number of pre-SIPPS announcment approvals. If that was the case, we have already heard how many investors have already pulled out of the approvals, in many instances leaving reserve and deposits behind. That needs to be considered before we read too much into the the spring bounce. SIPPS was an issue, many would-be-investors who took the gamble before the announcement were quick to bleat about it all over the news just before christmas. It's one to watch, I guess we may have a clearer indication in the next couple of months.

Boomer

Edited by boom_and_bust

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  • 334 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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