Jump to content
House Price Crash Forum
Sign in to follow this  
AgeingBabyBoomer

Us Growth In 2006, Where From?

Recommended Posts

Taking advantage of my VIP status to start my first thread :)

Just been watching CNBC Europe - which until now I always thought a

bit of a toytown financial channel.

However on their early morning show, they wheeled in a string of experts

(amongst them Stephen King form HBOS, and some german guy from BNP Paribas)

the discussion was about future opportunities in 2006.

The discussion touched on a lot of points amongst the higlights mentioned:

- Global levelling - discussion on wage pressures in the west as China and

India become economic growth engines

- GBs Sipps Uturn

- latest mortgage approvals (post November) being very weak

- the trillions worth of mortgage debt that will go to fixed rate in 2007

- and many more, not generally seen in our mainstream media, but discussed frequently here.

All in all I was impressed by the sobriety of debate and reasoned argument, and alot of the

conclusions confirm the bearish attitudes often expressed here.(obviously they have been lurking)

Anyhow, one particular guy (name forgotten) was talking about the US economy, and growth.

The point was made about the housing market, how most consumption

growth was MEW driven, and that simply a topping out of HPI would

cause a drop in consumption and hence growth.

However as a parting comment, he said that they stil predicted 3.5 % GDP growth this

year (apparently quite impressive), but gave no reasons why.

So my question is , given the predicted drop in consumption growth due to MEW,

where does this 3.5 % come from....?

ABB

Edited by AgeingBabyBoomer

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Sorry,

I don't have a qualified (or unqualified for that matter) answer to your actual question but going back did they actually state mortgage approvals post November have been weak?

If so I just wonder what information they are privy to as that this would be good for housing bears.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

- Global levelling - discussion on wage pressures in the west as China and

India become economic growth engines

ABB

Not having seen the programme I obviously don't know what the pundits said about this.

I'm interested that this is now being discussed in these circles.

That means this subject will slowly drift into more mainstream media and has the potential to really hit sentiment for many folks.

Western politicians really are going to have trouble explaining to their electorates why their incomes are going to stagnate or even decline.

At the moment the politicians can waffle about keeping wage inflation in line with CPI indices.

I might be wrong of course and the West may see a burst of growth based on emerging technologies and lots of Asian tourists.

"Interesting times" indeed. Chinese philosophers eh.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Sorry,

I don't have a qualified (or unqualified for that matter) answer to your actual question but going back did they actually state mortgage approvals post November have been weak?

If so I just wonder what information they are privy to as that this would be good for housing bears.

Yes, it was an american comentator that said it, but I'm not sure if he was

referring to US or UK. - he was at pains to wave away the gains in November

as a blip, and in the same breath mentioned the Sipps

U turn...

So either he gets more up to date data about the US from somewhere,

or he has advance access to Uk data not yet published.

Nevertheless, he repeated the pointn later in

another debate.

ABB

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

So my question is , given the predicted drop in consumption growth due to MEW,

where does this 3.5 % come from....?

FROM HI - TEC.

Ive long argued that hi - tec / dotcoms are a great investment post the last dotcom crash and I believe my predictions are now comming to fruition.

I convesed with Dr Bubb about 12 months ago on this subject and pointed out I had been steadily buying in this sector.

The age old 'buy when there is blood on the streets' still holds true.

I wonder if the perma - bears followed this stratergy (or found the enviroment to scary), afterall they keep telling me they can be bullish in trough times?

Edited by dogbox

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I hear you can outsource your philosophy requirements there for peanuts. :lol:

Much in your jest.

For when we see Western students choosing to study at Chinese universities and not because it may be cheaper, we will really know that changes are happening.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

However as a parting comment, he said that they stil predicted 3.5 % GDP growth this

year (apparently quite impressive), but gave no reasons why.

So my question is , given the predicted drop in consumption growth due to MEW,

where does this 3.5 % come from....?

ABB

I am sure that John Simpson's predictions for 2006 also referred to strong growth in the US economy and I thought where is that going to come from?

Can't find the article now.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

FROM HI - TEC.

Ive long argued that hi - tec / dotcoms are a great investment post the last dotcom crash and I believe my predictions are now comming to fruition.

I convesed with Dr Bubb about 12 months ago on this subject and pointed out I had been steadily buying in this sector.

The age old 'buy when there is blood on the streets' still holds true.

I wonder if the perma - bears followed this stratergy (or found the enviroment to scary), afterall they keep telling me they can be bullish in trough times?

I would need to see some serious evidence that companies are starting to fork out on capital equipment before I'd say they are a great investment....the growth won't be coming from the consumer,and if capital spending does not pick up,you could easily see nasdaq do a japan and have a 10 year long base.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.