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apom

Just A Quick Question

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We are seeing reports that fewer houses were sold in 2005 then in 30 years.

But that prices are going to rise and the market is fine.

We are seeing that a third of estate agents may fail in 2006.

But that prices are going to rise and the market is fine.

We are seeing that too many new flats are built and that their valuations are too difficult for btl mortgage providers to risk lending against.

But that prices are going to rise and the market is fine

We see that Sipp's which was to be the saviour of an otherwise doomed housing market is now gone.

But that prices are going to rise and the market is fine.

We see the debt burden in the country rising impossibly fast and the consumer slowdown showing recession tendancies..

But that prices are going to rise and the market is fine....

We see that if prices stay where they are and enough first time buyers returned to support that market that the debt burden would cripple the economy

But that prices are going to rise and the market is fine

We see houses staying on the market for long periods, constantly dropping their prices and still not selling.

But that prices are going to rise and the market is fine..

We see massive discounts against new builds and cashback offers.

But that prices are going to rise and the market is fine...

We see more people going bankrupt then since records began.

But that prices are going to rise and the market is fine.

We see reposesions rising faster then ever and being very hard to spell this early in the morning.

But that prices are going to rise and the market is fine.

We are told that the surge in home purchases toward the end of 2005 was in anticipation of Sipps as it was happening, now we are not told that. and it was a surge tfrom an all time low and not much of a surge.

But that prices are going to rise and the market is fine.

We are told that first time buyers are priced out of the market in 90% of the country, and I know of no one who lives in this mysterious 10%.

But that prices are going to rise and the market is fine..

We see reports of not selling empty new builds.

But that prices are going to rise and the market is fine..

We see that the available housing supply is more now then it was when prices were at their long term average affordability..

But that prices are going to rise and the market is fine..

What I want to know from anyone reading this is quite what part of the market is fine? I can't see it..

All I can see is that the VI spin is fine.. Every other possible part of it seems to be massivly bug*erd to me..

Edited by apom

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Good post and im with you all the way!

Only issue I have is with the

"We are seeing reports that fewer houses were sold in 2005 then in 30 years.

But that prices are going to rise and the market is fine."

I have a bit of a crusade on to ensure people know that countrywide have reported their sales down to lowest level in 30 years.. This does not mean the entire market is down.

Since the boom things are far more competitive and just because an estate agent is struggling it doesnt mean the market is failing. Look at Sainsburys and Tescos... If you took Sainsburys as an indicator on public spending on food you would think we are all on rationing.. Then you see Tescos share of the pie... Ohh look thats where all the cash went!

I hope you get my point... All the other ones look pretty fair to me. Lets get ready to rumble :D

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Guest wrongmove

any bull who would like to jump in with a part of the market that is fine.. please feel free..

I am intrigued.

I am not a bull, more a slighly bearish/neutral, but here goes:

We see that IRs are down.

But that prices are going to crash and the market is f*****d.

We see that approvals are strong and rising

But that prices are going to crash and the market is f*****d.

We see that affordability is much better than the last crash.

But that prices are going to crash and the market is f*****d.

We see that GDP is positive and predicted to rise.

But that prices are going to crash and the market is f*****d.

We see that employment is stable.

But that prices are going to crash and the market is f*****d.

We see that payrises are above inflation.

But that prices are going to crash and the market is f*****d.

WE see that city bonuses are well up this year.

But that prices are going to crash and the market is f*****d.

There are still two sides to the argument IMHO - I have just listed the positive side to compliment apom's negative factors.

:ph34r:

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any bull who would like to jump in with a part of the market that is fine.. please feel free..

I am intrigued.

You're right (despite the fact that I'd like to challenge the broadness of some of your statements), the markets in a tough period.

Only 1 thing left to do, lower rates........ :D

Oooh, & I almost forgot, raise rents........

Edited by Time to raise the rents.

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I am not a bull, more a slighly bearish/neutral, but here goes:

We see that IRs are down.

But that prices are going to crash and the market is f*****d.

We see that approvals are strong and rising

But that prices are going to crash and the market is f*****d.

We see that affordability is much better than the last crash.

But that prices are going to crash and the market is f*****d.

We see that GDP is positive and predicted to rise.

But that prices are going to crash and the market is f*****d.

We see that employment is stable.

But that prices are going to crash and the market is f*****d.

We see that payrises are above inflation.

But that prices are going to crash and the market is f*****d.

WE see that city bonuses are well up this year.

But that prices are going to crash and the market is f*****d.

There are still two sides to the argument IMHO - I have just listed the positive side to compliment apom's negative factors.

:ph34r:

Employment stable? Unemployed rising every month.

Price of houses negates the affordability factor.

Renting cheaper than buying.

Approvals strong and rising? Lowest for 30 years?

Just goes to show, its very hard to prove how house prices can rise IMO.

Edited by Come On Down

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Guest wrongmove

Employment stable? Unemployed rising every month.

Price of houses negates the affordability factor.

Renting cheaper than buying.

Approvals strong and rising? Lowest for 30 years?

Just goes to show, its very hard to prove how house prices can rise IMO.

Uk has lowest unemployment in the world except Japan. Rises are pretty small and from a very low base.

Low IRs negates the high prices.

Renting is only cheaper short term, and for expensive houses. Rent will rise with inflation. A mortgage is eventually paid off. 10 year fixes or longer are available at around 5%.

Approvals are the HIGHEST for over a year (115k) and well above the longterm trend (96k).

I'm not saying they will rise, just that on the balance of probability, they will not crash soon.

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Uk has lowest unemployment in the world except Japan. Rises are pretty small and from a very low base.

Low IRs negates the high prices.

Renting is only cheaper short term, and for expensive houses. Rent will rise with inflation. A mortgage is eventually paid off. 10 year fixes or longer are available at around 5%.

Approvals are the HIGHEST for over a year (115k) and well above the longterm trend (96k).

I'm not saying they will rise, just that on the balance of probability, they will not crash soon.

We have had rising employment for nine months in a row - yet the media still report unchallenged the government's glib statements that we have rising employment. This is truly Orwellian.

The UK unemployment statistics are a joke.

We have lost a million jobs in manufacturing since 1997 and gained a million jobs in the public sector. This is the biggest single act of folly I have ever witnessed. This will take a generation or more to undo.

Low IRs negate high prices - only if IRs stay low. Last time I looked most people took on a 25 year mortgage. The affordability ratio is so stretched now that even a 1% rise in IRs would kill the economy stone dead.

Mortgage approval figures - sorry, I don't believe a word of the VI figures. They massage everything to try to put a positive spin on things.

If everything is so rosy, how come developers round here simply cannot sell their new build flats? Even with 15% or more off - they are still not shifting. One block is coming up for its second anniversary now and, according to the Land Registry, only 4 out of 8 have ever been sold. Another block now a year old - 6 out of 24 sold.

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Apom,

An excellent synthesis of the reasons why people should be worried.

But, stupidity is perhaps the greatest factor affecting economic thinking in this current era and is evident at almost every level of society to such a degree that no one can guesstimate its outcome. I remember when Greenspan stood on his hind legs and blinking myopically through his lenses addressed those assembled stating that he did not know why the American economy was performing in the way it was. I think that said it all.

However, in reading your post it did occur to me that things may be a little different to the last crash not least because of the number of houses owned either outright or on nugatory mortgages by the babyboomers who currently enjoy significant financial security and a disposible income sufficient to ride out any recession.How one could quantify this and its impact I'm not sure but it may be a significant factor.

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We are seeing reports that fewer houses were sold in 2005 then in 30 years.

But that prices are going to rise and the market is fine.

We are seeing that a third of estate agents may fail in 2006.

But that prices are going to rise and the market is fine.

We are seeing that too many new flats are built and that their valuations are too difficult for btl mortgage providers to risk lending against.

But that prices are going to rise and the market is fine

We see that Sipp's which was to be the saviour of an otherwise doomed housing market is now gone.

But that prices are going to rise and the market is fine.

We see the debt burden in the country rising impossibly fast and the consumer slowdown showing recession tendancies..

But that prices are going to rise and the market is fine....

We see that if prices stay where they are and enough first time buyers returned to support that market that the debt burden would cripple the economy

But that prices are going to rise and the market is fine

We see houses staying on the market for long periods, constantly dropping their prices and still not selling.

But that prices are going to rise and the market is fine..

We see massive discounts against new builds and cashback offers.

But that prices are going to rise and the market is fine...

We see more people going bankrupt then since records began.

But that prices are going to rise and the market is fine.

We see reposesions rising faster then ever and being very hard to spell this early in the morning.

But that prices are going to rise and the market is fine.

We are told that the surge in home purchases toward the end of 2005 was in anticipation of Sipps as it was happening, now we are not told that. and it was a surge tfrom an all time low and not much of a surge.

But that prices are going to rise and the market is fine.

We are told that first time buyers are priced out of the market in 90% of the country, and I know of no one who lives in this mysterious 10%.

But that prices are going to rise and the market is fine..

We see reports of not selling empty new builds.

But that prices are going to rise and the market is fine..

We see that the available housing supply is more now then it was when prices were at their long term average affordability..

But that prices are going to rise and the market is fine..

What I want to know from anyone reading this is quite what part of the market is fine? I can't see it..

All I can see is that the VI spin is fine.. Every other possible part of it seems to be massivly bug*erd to me..

Right on!

Well we have the lyrics, can we knock up the melody.

The chorus is "But that prices are going to rise and the market is fine.."

Anyone for the flash video?

We'll have this at no 1 next week

:)

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Fair play wrongmove but the apom gave 14 statements and you only 7..... simply on that I'd tend to be on the bearish side.

more importantly most of your statements, although linked, did not address house prices or the housing market directly. They pointed more to reasons that the economy is OK not housing specifically. If you want to put a bit of ballance in the we can mention record levels of unsecured and secured debt, a tough christmas trading period for the retail sector, firms going bust daily and so on....

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Regarding the original post and, for balance, wrongmove's counter argument, how about e-mailing them to some of the more respected economics journalists to see if they wish to comment and/or build an article from the material?

Regards

BP

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However, in reading your post it did occur to me that things may be a little different to the last crash not least because of the number of houses owned either outright or on nugatory mortgages by the babyboomers who currently enjoy significant financial security and a disposible income sufficient to ride out any recession.How one could quantify this and its impact I'm not sure but it may be a significant factor.

Personally I think it would work in the bears favour.... The market is not driven by people who are not selling their house it's driven by people who are selling their house. You can effectively remove the people you mention from the equation.

If anything it would be better to look at the number of people who have MEW'd who rather than protecting themselves from rising prices have infact exposed themselves to it.

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Guest wrongmove

Fair play wrongmove but the apom gave 14 statements and you only 7..... simply on that I'd tend to be on the bearish side.

It's quality, not quantity that counts ! :P

some of apom's comments are plain wrong (lowest sales for 30 years), many are anacdotel.

Clearly the market is tougher than it was 2 years ago. That is why we do not have 15% HPI.

If the economy is ok, where are the forced sellers going to come from ? If there are few forced sellers, why will prices crash ? Repos are up, true, but way, way below the last crash.

BTW, I am not a bull. I am currently renting (FTB) and will continue to rent for now. I just think that some uber-bears are better at VI spin that even the EAs e.g. Countrywide EA has a bad year, then people report "lowest sales in 30 years". This is BS, and even as a mild bear, I would rather base my opinion in better quality data than VI spin, whether it is crash spin, or boom spin.

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Uk has lowest unemployment in the world except Japan. Rises are pretty small and from a very low base.

I woiuldn't be quoting that one - have you seen their housing market?! Shows that employment doesn't have to be a factor in a HPC

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Guest wrongmove

I woiuldn't be quoting that one - have you seen their housing market?! Shows that employment doesn't have to be a factor in a HPC

I am not trying to make a case for a boom. I am just stating some data. I do not have an axe to grind - I am an FTB who is currently renting and I would benefit hugely from a crash if it happened.

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The only way a crash will materialise is if the banks let it. Either higher base rate or general tightening of credit. To restrict the trade in property or any other market, you need a restriction of money in that market.

We are in a weird place right now, consumers are slowing down, but with all the fiddled figures it seems pretty clear to me that the banks who allowed this to start will decide when it stops. We are told inflation is low, yet we see the opposite. So much money is in traditional inflation protection assets like gold and property, something is going on.

Some good points, apom.

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It's quality, not quantity that counts ! :P

some of apom's comments are plain wrong (lowest sales for 30 years), many are anacdotel.

Clearly the market is tougher than it was 2 years ago. That is why we do not have 15% HPI.

If the economy is ok, where are the forced sellers going to come from ? If there are few forced sellers, why will prices crash ? Repos are up, true, but way, way below the last crash.

BTW, I am not a bull. I am currently renting (FTB) and will continue to rent for now. I just think that some uber-bears are better at VI spin that even the EAs e.g. Countrywide EA has a bad year, then people report "lowest sales in 30 years". This is BS, and even as a mild bear, I would rather base my opinion in better quality data than VI spin, whether it is crash spin, or boom spin.

I agree I am desperate to be bearish but rise in mortgage aprovals is very worring also what was the real transaction level in 2005 (hard to find the infomation out with so much spin from both sides) From what I gather it is no way near the worst for 30 years but more like the same as 2001 or thereabouts.

I personally thing that the forced seller issue will arrive because so many people have overstretched themselves. If properties prices remain static and hard to shift then this will cause more and more problems. Not so much now but throughout 2003/2004 loads of people I knew were buying houses they couldn't really afford, just about holding on but can't see that lasting long unless they get massive pay rises or inflation kicks off to help them out.

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We are seeing reports that fewer houses were sold in 2005 then in 30 years.

But that prices are going to rise and the market is fine.

We are seeing that a third of estate agents may fail in 2006.

But that prices are going to rise and the market is fine.

We are seeing that too many new flats are built and that their valuations are too difficult for btl mortgage providers to risk lending against.

But that prices are going to rise and the market is fine

We see that Sipp's which was to be the saviour of an otherwise doomed housing market is now gone.

But that prices are going to rise and the market is fine.

We see the debt burden in the country rising impossibly fast and the consumer slowdown showing recession tendancies..

But that prices are going to rise and the market is fine....

We see that if prices stay where they are and enough first time buyers returned to support that market that the debt burden would cripple the economy

But that prices are going to rise and the market is fine

We see houses staying on the market for long periods, constantly dropping their prices and still not selling.

But that prices are going to rise and the market is fine..

We see massive discounts against new builds and cashback offers.

But that prices are going to rise and the market is fine...

We see more people going bankrupt then since records began.

But that prices are going to rise and the market is fine.

We see reposesions rising faster then ever and being very hard to spell this early in the morning.

But that prices are going to rise and the market is fine.

We are told that the surge in home purchases toward the end of 2005 was in anticipation of Sipps as it was happening, now we are not told that. and it was a surge tfrom an all time low and not much of a surge.

But that prices are going to rise and the market is fine.

We are told that first time buyers are priced out of the market in 90% of the country, and I know of no one who lives in this mysterious 10%.

But that prices are going to rise and the market is fine..

We see reports of not selling empty new builds.

But that prices are going to rise and the market is fine..

We see that the available housing supply is more now then it was when prices were at their long term average affordability..

But that prices are going to rise and the market is fine..

What I want to know from anyone reading this is quite what part of the market is fine? I can't see it..

All I can see is that the VI spin is fine.. Every other possible part of it seems to be massivly bug*erd to me..

Mortgage lending nears record high:

http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/mortgages/mor...3&in_page_id=58

According to HPC logic this must mean prices are falling

:lol:

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Mortgage lending nears record high:

http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/mortgages/mor...3&in_page_id=58

According to HPC logic this must mean prices are falling

:lol:

But property market bulls were warned that people remortgaging matured deals had fuelled activity and house prices were predicted to rise by just 2% in 2006.

A great deal of the mortgage lending has been credited to people whose fixed-rate loans had ended and the CML said Bank of England approvals figures had shown remortgaging activity at record levels during recent months.

Sorry, I forgot, you are only able to look at pictures, so how were you to know the link you were posting up would undermine your credibility if you were to read it :lol:

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Uk has lowest unemployment in the world except Japan. Rises are pretty small and from a very low base.

Low IRs negates the high prices.

Renting is only cheaper short term, and for expensive houses. Rent will rise with inflation. A mortgage is eventually paid off. 10 year fixes or longer are available at around 5%.

Approvals are the HIGHEST for over a year (115k) and well above the longterm trend (96k).

I'm not saying they will rise, just that on the balance of probability, they will not crash soon.

http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/news/article....65&in_page_id=2

The above link confirms 30 year low.

Lower interest rates make affordability better and easier at today's prices?

Do they, then why are first time buyers priced out across 90% of the country?

I disagree and trust me a £50,000 flat at 6% is cheeper then the same flat at £130,000 at 4.5%

Affordability is now at a historic low.

IR's are not down, they were down at 3.5% at 4.5% they are up.

Unemployment is rising, that is agread and governmental figures support this. Or I thought they did.

Payrises may be above inflation, but the government said that if that continued they would be forced to raise interest rates. I believe the public sector was told not to exceed 2.5%

And don't forget payrises are being driven by the rise in the cost of living.

So if wages, housing and taxation are all exceeding inflation what in god's green earth is inflation measuring?

Whatever is said about inflation, the huge rise in Taxes, bills and housing is limiting the amount of money people have.

this counters the Bulls arguments I believe..

What part is fine..?

and as to the 10 year fixed rate? why would we need that?

surely Interest Rates won't go up, because if they do the market at that point will still have very expensive properties.. and even more expensive loans..

Is it fine??

Mortgage lending nears record high:

http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/mortgages/mor...3&in_page_id=58

According to HPC logic this must mean prices are falling

:lol:

http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/news/article....65&in_page_id=2

Well lowest sales in 30 years...

and dropping prices..

and they are offering cashback of 10% on top of their 8% fall.

Mate we know that people are taking out a lot of mortgages... and awful amount..

still living in the same house but embracing more debt does not mean a rise in house prices..

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Guest wrongmove

Number of property transactions: http://www.statistics.gov.uk/STATBASE/tsda...04&More=N&All=Y

The first column is England and Wales, not seasonally adjusted, for the last 30 years. How exactly is now the lowest for 30 years ? Look at the early 90s.

1975 1 258 .. ..

1975 2 302 .. ..

1975 3 315 .. ..

1975 4 299 .. ..

1976 1 269 .. ..

1976 2 297 .. ..

1976 3 316 .. ..

1976 4 308 .. ..

1977 1 262 .. ..

1977 2 301 307 306

1977 3 333 341 322

1977 4 343 351 331

1978 1 331 337 351

1978 2 351 358 356

1978 3 349 356 337

1978 4 334 340 320

1979 1 306 312 326

1979 2 314 320 319

1979 3 345 351 333

1979 4 341 348 326

1980 1 312 318 333

1980 2 328 334 334

1980 3 308 314 297

1980 4 319 326 306

1981 1 288 293 308

1981 2 328 334 335

1981 3 351 358 338

1981 4 384 392 367

1982 1 320 328 343

1982 2 368 377 376

1982 3 424 433 407

1982 4 429 437 412

1983 1 403 411 431

1983 2 411 419 422

1983 3 431 440 411

1983 4 424 433 408

1984 1 424 433 453

1984 2 427 436 440

1984 3 456 466 432

1984 4 452 461 435

1985 1 404 413 431

1985 2 434 444 451

1985 3 462 472 435

1985 4 442 452 425

1986 1 390 399 418

1986 2 418 427 433

1986 3 499 509 469

1986 4 494 504 475

1987 1 429 438 463

1987 2 439 448 452

1987 3 534 543 502

1987 4 535 545 516

1988 1 487 497 530

1988 2 518 528 528

1988 3 616 626 583

1988 4 527 537 505

1989 1 407 416 440

1989 2 405 415 410

1989 3 390 401 372

1989 4 378 388 369

1990 1 344 354 375

1990 2 360 369 367

1990 3 349 359 326

1990 4 345 355 333

1991 1 314 323 347

1991 2 324 334 332

1991 3 353 363 322

1991 4 315 325 303

1992 1 236 245 266

1992 2 265 275 271

1992 3 367 379 333

1992 4 268 277 258

1993 1 239 248 264

1993 2 279 289 286

1993 3 347 357 317

1993 4 331 342 324

1994 1 299 309 325

1994 2 312 322 321

1994 3 345 356 317

1994 4 319 331 315

1995 1 284 295 308

1995 2 280 291 288

1995 3 298 311 275

1995 4 272 285 264

1996 1 261 272 280

1996 2 284 295 299

1996 3 338 347 313

1996 4 360 369 350

1997 1 324 335 360

1997 2 351 360 361

1997 3 387 398 354

1997 4 377 387 365

1998 1 317 327 344

1998 2 317 327 332

1998 3 377 386 345

1998 4 335 345 326

1999 1 316 325 345

1999 2 342 354 358

1999 3 414 425 379

1999 4 397 407 388

2000 1 367 379 392

2000 2 348 356 356

2000 3 379 388 346

2000 4 339 349 338

2001 1 327 337 346

2001 2 347 360 363

2001 3 396 405 369

2001 4 387 396 379

2002 1 342 351 374

2002 2 395 404 410

2002 3 457 468 417

2002 4 392 404 385

2003 1 340 359 361

2003 2 306 320 323

2003 3 358 369 327

2003 4 340 349 333

2004 1 447 457 470

2004 2 452 463 459

2004 3 491 504 447

2004 4 396 406 411

2005 1 322 329 351

2005 2 363 375 358

2005 3 464 478 416

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Apom,

An excellent synthesis of the reasons why people should be worried.

But, stupidity is perhaps the greatest factor affecting economic thinking in this current era and is evident at almost every level of society to such a degree that no one can guesstimate its outcome. I remember when Greenspan stood on his hind legs and blinking myopically through his lenses addressed those assembled stating that he did not know why the American economy was performing in the way it was. I think that said it all.

However, in reading your post it did occur to me that things may be a little different to the last crash not least because of the number of houses owned either outright or on nugatory mortgages by the babyboomers who currently enjoy significant financial security and a disposible income sufficient to ride out any recession.How one could quantify this and its impact I'm not sure but it may be a significant factor.

The choicest of words.

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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