Jobless Total 'to Hit One Million'

[BandWagon]

http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/news/article....12&in_page_id=2

Unemployment has been rising steadily for the past six months as hard-pressed companies lay off workers. Householders, now a record £1 trillion in debt, are abandoning the high street. Many fear that a jump in unemployment could be devastatingfor house prices and the wider economy.

Mr Saunders said: 'Rising unemployment and rising savings could prevent even the modest consumer pickup that we expect.'

Wow, have these rocket scientists also been reading HPC?

Slowly, slowly, the masses are starting to realise that there's trouble ahead.

This is the age old economic cycle, boom, bust, boom, bust.

It was written about in the Bible for gawd's sake!

The Bank of England will be forced to cut interest rates again and keep them low for 'a long period', he said. This may help to persuade shoppers and businesses to spend.

Really? It didn't work in Japan, or in Germany.

Debt doesn't go away just because interest rates go down.

(Apologies if this was posted before)

Edited January 4, 2006 by BandWagon

[BuyingBear]

The Bank of England will be forced to cut interest rates again and keep them low for 'a long period', he said. This may help to persuade shoppers and businesses to spend.

Hrm, but do people really care when they're out in the shops and slapping things on the credit card (at >15% APR)? It's all about sentiment, lowering the rate didn't turn things around in Japan when the crash got underway.

[Harry Sacks]

This is the age old economic cycle, boom, bust, boom, bust.

It was written about in the Bible for gawd's sake!

Ah yes, the bank cycle.

Jesus chased the money changers from the temple and all that.

[Justice]

Officially we have 2.6m on incapacity benefit and the government says they are going to try and do something about it .

Maybe one day we could use electronic tags on them all to see if they are working or playing golf , the day after we make our elected leaders wear tags as surly they have nothing to hide and they could be kidnapped or something like that.

Are you all starting to see where this is all going, Japan will seem like a nice place if it continues

[BuyingBear]

Officially we have 2.6m on incapacity benefit and the government says they are going to try and do something about it .

And if you use the ILO unemployment measurement there are really >1.42m unemployed, add that to the incapacity count and there's over 4m unemployed people in this country, so claims of "jobless just under/over 1 million" is a farce.

ILO Unemployment

According to International Labor Organization measures, working age employment was 74.7 percent in the three months through October, down from 74.8 percent in the three months to July. The employment level dropped to 28.81 million, the second highest on record, the statistics office said.

The claimant count rate held at 2.9 percent for a second month, the highest since January 2004, the statistics office said. October's claimant count gain was revised up to 13,500 from 12,100, pushing up the rate to 2.9 percent from 2.8 percent.

The ILO unemployment rate rose to 4.9 percent in the three months through October from 4.7 percent in the previous three months. That's the second-lowest in the Group of Seven Industrialized nations after Japan and compares with 8.3 percent in the dozen countries that share the euro.

The U.K. factory workforce shrank by 115,000 in the three months through October, to 3.1 million, the lowest since records began in 1978, the statistics office said.

Factory production fell for a third month in October, the statistics office said Dec. 6, suggesting manufacturing may struggle to stay out of recession. It emerged from its second recession in less than five years in the third quarter.

The most internationally-accepted methodology, designed by the International Labour Organisation (ILO), defines an unemployed person as someone who in the previous four weeks had actively looked for work they could take up immediately.

[Justice]

The most internationally-accepted methodology, designed by the International Labour Organisation (ILO), defines an unemployed person as someone who in the previous four weeks had actively looked for work they could take up immediately.

So what you are saying is that if i don't even try and find work for six weeks then i'm not counted towards these figures ?

Makes you wonder why anyone believes a word our government and it’s puppet departments says anymore.

So if you make it 4m and add to that all the non-jobs in the public sector, students that don’t want a job, single mums on tax credits then would you agree the figure has got to be close to 10m and I’ve not mentioned pensioners yet.

Don’t know about the UK having an hangover, I think it will wake up dead the next day

[BuyingBear]

So what you are saying is that if i don't even try and find work for six weeks then i'm not counted towards these figures ?

Makes you wonder why anyone believes a word our government and it’s puppet departments says anymore.

The ONS compile the ILO stats but the government doesn't prefer that measure, they simply count claimants.

So if you make it 4m and add to that all the non-jobs in the public sector, students that don’t want a job, single mums on tax credits then would you agree the figure has got to be close to 10m and I’ve not mentioned pensioners yet.

Yes, the productivity is laughable, about 10% of the work force make up the majority of tax take for the government, that's why government wouldn't overtly put up the 40% income tax band in case they decide to p*ss off as many did in the 60's, though they increase the allowances so slowly that ever more people are dragged into it each year.

You also forgot things like the New Deal which subsidise employers to take on workers, they are very much counted as fully employed productive employees, despite the fact the job wouldn't exist if it wasn't for the hand out.

[apom]

I was in the cinema..

and I saw a guy with his kid.. he had an NHS crutch..

and it was the worst pantomime in the world..

there was no way he was using it at all.. he would stand up with no problems.. stroll about.. run after his kid.. amusing..

more so then the kid..

We havent got more unemployed.. but we have a lot more poor ill little darlings..

[james791]

I work in public sector, (JobcentrePlus) and its not just JSA, there is Incapacity benefit too, as well as Income Support, Carers Allowance, Industrial Injuries Disablement Benefit, Maternity Allowance, Disability Living Allowance, Attendance Allowance, Bereavement Benefit, Child Tax Credit, Family Tax Credit, Housing Benefit, Council Tax Benefit.. plus a few others as well i think. The unemployment figures dont take any of these into account and as someone else says there is New Deal courses, people can get Advance Discretionary loans to pay for a new suit or bus pass, people who have been on Incapacity benefit over 52 weeks get an additional payment if they look for work...the list is endless.

The amount of people claiming benefits in some way or another is staggering. Many of the customers i get now arent too bothered about getting JSA or whatever, they want to know how to get help paying off their mortgage!

.

[Justice]

BuyingBear

"why government wouldn't overtly put up the 40% income tax band in case they decide to p*ss off as many did in the 60's"

it was not just the tax but also the bad spending that made me up and go and i can tell you i'm not alone, it's just that the Blair/BBC Don’t want to give you ideas

Must dash now as I’m about to miss that program about disasters in the sun, bout buying property abroad and losing all my money

[BuyingBear]

BuyingBear

it was not just the tax but also the bad spending that made me up and go and i can tell you i'm not alone, it's just that the Blair/BBC Don’t want to give you ideas

Must dash now as I’m about to miss that program about disasters in the sun, bout buying property abroad and losing all my money

Can I come too?

[NJP]

The Bank of England will be forced to cut interest rates again and keep them low for 'a long period', he said. This may help to persuade shoppers and businesses to spend.

And presumably, when everyone's credit card is maxed out again in 6 months, they'll lower rates even more to keep us spending? Where should they stop? 1%? 0%?

Sounds like a fine plan to me.

[OnlyMe]

That 600,000 jobs buffer and "so-called" skills shortage is gone, the current incumbents in government are going to wish they never opened the floodgates to unrestrained immigration - not only has the buffer gone but jobs have been displaced by workers who have no long term interst in this country's economy or indeed keeping their money swilling around in it when back home it is worth so much more.

We will be treading in the footsteps of Germany, except with the 10 ton gorilla debt load on our backs.

Before anyone says it this is not some xenophibic diatribe, simply a statement of the situation which is becoming all to obvious.

[Justice]

OnlyMe

We will be treading in the footsteps of Germany, except with the 10 ton gorilla debt load on our backs.

The Germans could see the recession coming and they all cut their cloth accordingly and historically do not rely on credit to see them over a bad time.

Compare this with the UK where we are now maxed out on credit and tell me who you think will come out the winner in the longer term.

Blair could always pass the power over to his friends in the conservative party and they can pretend they had nothing to do with the economic implosion whilst bolting on yet more tax until the cycle begins again. We need to break this phoney cycle and kick the lot out and start again as UK politics has become so corrupt that it’s not repairable.

Did the conservative grumble very loud about tax rises, did they warn about over heating house prices or consumer debt.

[BuyingBear]

That 600,000 jobs buffer and "so-called" skills shortage is gone, the current incumbents in government are going to wish they never opened the floodgates to unrestrained immigration - not only has the buffer gone but jobs have been displaced by workers who have no long term interst in this country's economy or indeed keeping their money swilling around in it when back home it is worth so much more.

We will be treading in the footsteps of Germany, except with the 10 ton gorilla debt load on our backs.

Before anyone says it this is not some xenophibic diatribe, simply a statement of the situation which is becoming all to obvious.

Hrm, a diatribe that requires a little more depth, why criticize a system that has crafted a generation of indolence and pointless jobs when you can simply blame a few Poles who actually have the get up and go to move to a different country for work, often for only £5.50 an hour, with the audacity to try and improve their lot. Or maybe they should try to fit in more by emulating the native underclass?

Our problems didn't begin in May 2004.

Edited January 4, 2006 by BuyingBear

[right_freds_dead]

£5.50 an hour

is good provided you dont have to pay uk housing costs.

so worth working for if you send it home to talin and live in a sleeping bag

in fact £5.50 per hour is less that the hourly inflation of an average home in 2003.

how can you compete with that ?

[aclwalker]

You just need to take a day off work and go into the city centre and watch the sheer numbers of people wandering aimlessly about.

Only 1 million unemployed is sheer fantasy. We should be counting the number of those employed rather than unemployed.

Even better, express it as a percentage of those between, say 18 and 60/65, so that it takes into account changing population levels.

[OnlyMe]

Hrm, a diatribe that requires a little more depth, why criticize a system that has crafted a generation of indolence and pointless jobs when you can simply blame a few Poles who actually have the get up and go to move to a different country for work, often for only £5.50 an hour, with the audacity to try and improve their lot. Or maybe they should try to fit in more by emulating the native underclass?

Our problems didn't begin in May 2004.

Agree to some of that, but I don't think there is little doubt it has provided the tipping point in regards to unemployment levels and will also massivley increase the distress levels of those that lose their jobs from this point in as the spare cpacity will simply not be there. We are not talking about a few Poles though we are talking about 100'000's of jobs which would have provided some sort of buffer for what is coming.

Justice - agree not the type to let the bankers hijack the economy for short term gain and damage the rest of it, better to compete as best you can and come out the other side leaner and fitter.

[BuyingBear]

£5.50 an hour

is good provided you dont have to pay uk housing costs.

so worth working for if you send it home to talin and live in a sleeping bag

in fact £5.50 per hour is less that the hourly inflation of an average home in 2003.

how can you compete with that ?

Exactly why the market is unsustainable, the lack of a wage-price spiral means we have one element of inflation combined with higher taxes leaving people with actually less money to spend, the labour market is pretty dynfunctional. The press talk about 5% wage inflation being encouraging compared to 3% house inflation, not realising that 5% of £25k is a fraction of 3% on £180k.

Perversely this not good news for market, inflation is what bails mortgages out, not low interest rates. It seems not even the secondary effects of inflation on household bills will budge wage inflation.

[El_Pirata]

...you can simply blame a few Poles who actually have the get up and go to move to a different country for work, often for only £5.50 an hour, with the audacity to try and improve their lot. Or maybe they should try to fit in more by emulating the native underclass?

The trouble is, that £5.50 an hour is a lot of zlotys. It's not really £5.50 an hour if you're not tied in to our cost base long-term.

Now where can our "native underclass" to get the kind of payday that the poles get when they come here? Well very few places, because the pound is one of the strongest currencies on the planet. Only place nearby would be Norway in wages terms, but there isn't really the work and anyway they don't really allow migrant workers in on any large scale. Where else? Saudi Arabia is a good payer, but only for skilled workers, they have plenty of philipino workers there cleaning toilets. Only thing I can think of is security work in Iraq, but you wouldn't catch me doing that!

[lookingafterthekids]

With so much 'free money' available, i'ts no wonder 'homes under the hammer'has such good viewing figures.

Look on th bright side though, loads more HB payments for DSS landlords..............

[right_freds_dead]

The press talk about 5% wage inflation being encouraging compared to 3% house inflation, not realising that 5% of £25k is a fraction of 3% on £180k.

thats another good point often lost.

id love to stash money in uk govt bonds as they keep above inflation, but as its clear to see they are not based on REAL inflation they would lose money outta the ass. sadly, as i like ernie.

[Justice]

BuyingBear

It’s not the Poles that I object too, I like them and they do make the effort to fit in with our ways and they do work hard but unfortunately many who came before them have been scrounging off us for years and been rewarded with free houses and benefits of every kind.

Leicester is a good example. No one dare investigate a certain so called minority in Leicester for making fraudulent DHSS claims as they are quickly labelled a racist by a vast crowd of friends to the accused. It’s so bad that the areas where these immigrants live have yellow lines all over the place but you will NEVER see a parking warden in these places.

I don’t think this is fair do you.

All I did in Leicester for years was renovate properties for the Leicester City Council (LCC) in Belgrave and Highfields (Poor white areas did not qualify) and was I to take you there and paint a big black line on every house I worked on that was owned by a white person then I would not get arrested as it would only total about five out or maybe a 700 or so (I KID NOT)

I don’t think this is fair do you and would this not make you feel a bit of a racist ?

[BuyingBear]

BuyingBear

It’s not the Poles that I object too, I like them and they do make the effort to fit in with our ways and they do work hard but unfortunately many who came before them have been scrounging off us for years and been rewarded with free houses and benefits of every kind.

I blame the system for allow or actively encouraging this sort of 'lifestyle', it doesn't matter to me whether the money goes to chavy white people or chavy asian people, the effect is the same. The outcome drives dependence.

If anything these people aren't 'active participants' in the housing market, they are part of the "what are you going to do with me?" brigade, as such they look to government not the banks or the market when it such things.

[Priff]

The current incumbents in government are going to wish they never opened the floodgates to unrestrained immigration - not only has the buffer gone but jobs have been displaced by workers who have no long term interst in this country's economy or indeed keeping their money swilling around in it when back home it is worth so much more.

Mate, it's a global economy.

I work for a US company in IT. They have outsourced the US IT to Pakistan and India.

I'm trying to convince them it won't work for the European side.

If they could have put together a skilled, cost effective team in the US they would have, but they couldn't. So bye bye US offices.

Look at call centres and how they've been outsourced. If companies can't get the best world-wide skills here, they'll go somewhere else. They won't just shrug their shoulders and say "oh well, I might as well make do with the british resouces i can find". Offshore companies are getting better and better at bridging the culture gap.

I'm damn good at what I do. No amount of immigrants phases me because i'm smart enough and work hard enough to always be amongst the best. But I can never compete with an offshore comany that could hire a team of 3 for what would be a modest wage here.

I hope skilled workers continue to be attracted to the UK, rather than the alternative which is quite frankly frightening. This will keep work in the UK allowing hard working, capable british people to make a good living.

Edited January 4, 2006 by Priff