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Crown Heights And Victory Hill


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HOLA441
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HOLA442

I posted something similar on an main forum thread, but think it's worth revamping here as local threads have slower turnover.

http://commentisfree.guardian.co.uk/nick_p...#comment-696057

A comment in reply to the bearish article at the top of the page:

July 13th 10:40

'Get a grip man......The asset price of a property is irrelevant in real terms: what counts is the price payable from income to buy it.'

This is not so. Property is an asset which produces an income stream, owner occupiers benefit from living in their property, BTLs from renting it out. No-one would suggest buying any other asset at the maximum affordable price instead of what it's worth, but property attracts bizzare & unquestioned logic in the media.

Placing a value on future income from rents can give an indication of how much a property is worth. The maths may be slightly tricky and the assumptions debatable, but how how much is a Crown Heights/Victory Hill flat worth?

I think it depends on future assumptions you make about interest rates, inflation and rent.

The yield on long term government stocks is around 6% p.a. gross, I believe. This is totally risk free and very easy to achieve.

If I bought a property to rent out, I’d want to earn at least 8% p.a., as I’m taking significant risks with capital (and might will be borrowing at more than 6%).

Let’s assume inflation increases at 3% p.a. for rent and management charges

Now we need to find a suitable property to buy. The minimum asking price for a 2 bed flat at Crown Heights is now £163.5k. Asking rents start at £750 per month (it's been on Rightmove for some weeks - no takers at this price!) Let’s say I get £700 unfurnished net of letting agency fees, and have 2 void months each year. My annual management fees are £1600, giving a net income of £5400 p.a.

Apologies for the maths, it’s summing geometric series, but I’m not going to go into detail.

The value of my future cash flow is discounted at a %age of (1.08/1.03-1)*100=4.854%.

Valuing this in perpetuity and assuming I get rents on average halfway through the year…..

5400*(1+.04854/2)* (1/1.04854+1/1.04854^2+ ……etc)

If my memory hasn’t let me down, this eventually simplifies to….

5400*1.0242/.04854

= £113940 This is an estimate of how much to pay. It's not £160,000!

It is the most I can pay to get the minimum rate of return I think is reasonable, if my assumptions are right. I think I've been generous to BTLs. The trouble is, these are highly debatable, there is no correct set of figures to use and the outcome is very sensitive to what you assume. But to get to £163.5k would probably mean you get a lower return than gilts -you would be taking a risk for nothing.

Rents are likely to prove more stable than prices, as they are more reaonable. However, with plenty more flats coming onto the market, I think in the short term (the next few years) they are likely to reduce. BTLs are up sh1t creek. There are lots of Crown/Victory flats on the market - they are not selling. Reductions to £150k might bring in a few foolish punters, but those BTLs in denial seem likely to rack up increasing losses & be heading for bankruptcy proceedings, unless they've been buying for some years before the advent of Crown Heights.

Edited by somethingfishy
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HOLA443

The adverts for Alencon House (IBM building) are already on rightmove:

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/viewdetails-139...10&tr_t=buy

Meanwhile, there are an impressive number of duplex penthouses at Crown Heights stacking up at sub 300K:

299K: http://www.rightmove.co.uk/viewdetails-722...10&tr_t=buy

299K: http://www.rightmove.co.uk/viewdetails-683...10&tr_t=buy

299K: http://www.rightmove.co.uk/viewdetails-647...10&tr_t=buy

285K: http://www.rightmove.co.uk/viewdetails-135...10&tr_t=buy

My personal favourite is this one because it appears to be an end unit with a huge terrace:

295K: http://www.rightmove.co.uk/viewdetails-161...10&tr_t=buy

Although my original choice is cheaper and still seems to have a bit of a terrace (also not overlooked / end unit):

249K: http://www.rightmove.co.uk/viewdetails-158...=9&tr_t=buy

If I wasn't being discriminated-against for being an engineer in this country and wasn't looking at a 7.5 times income mortgage for it, I'd be in the market for such a place as a sure signal to my peers that I'd made it in life. People have told me I word things in such a way as to not let on when I'm being sarcastic. You'll just have to guess which part of this sentence is meant and which isn't.

Victory Hill also now appears to be putting in an appearance. 3, yes 3, duplex appartments have appeared over the last few months:

249K: http://www.rightmove.co.uk/viewdetails-812...=9&tr_t=buy

249K: http://www.rightmove.co.uk/viewdetails-158...=9&tr_t=buy

249K: http://www.rightmove.co.uk/viewdetails-699...=9&tr_t=buy

I suppose with this many, even at these prices, they're getting ready for the next leg down. Whether that happens now or after an IR rise to 6%, who knows.

Edited by AvidFan
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HOLA444

Some good posts there somethingfishy.....I particuarly loved:

I like the negative equity diving boards on the main tower, shows good foresight.

I agree with your analysis of value

= £113940 This is an estimate of how much to pay. It's not £160,000!

Personally I always thought around the £120K figure probably represented fair market value for the mid-range apartments moving up to about £180K for the decent duplex units/penthouses with terraces.

The bottom range Crown Heights/Victory Hill apartments (ground floor/1 bedder) really should be priced much more than those available at Goat lane which is only a few hundred yards away and actually have more open space, better accessibility and more Sq footage than either of those developments:

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property/15962414

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HOLA445
Some good posts there somethingfishy.....I particuarly loved:

I like the negative equity diving boards on the main tower, shows good foresight.

I agree with your analysis of value

= £113940 This is an estimate of how much to pay. It's not £160,000!

Personally I always thought around the £120K figure probably represented fair market value for the mid-range apartments moving up to about £180K for the decent duplex units/penthouses with terraces.

The bottom range Crown Heights/Victory Hill apartments (ground floor/1 bedder) really should be priced much more than those available at Goat lane which is only a few hundred yards away and actually have more open space, better accessibility and more Sq footage than either of those developments:

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property/15962414

Thanks… Crown Heights , Victory Hill & Skyline Plaza are easy targets I suppose but I think there’s a public service element in the thread you’ve started here, as well as venting annoyance at the nonsensical, misleading marketing campaigns and housing hype. I hope people thinking of buying a flat here Google these developments, read HPC & the Basingstoke Observer & consider the risk they’re taking. I keep meeting people on not great wages who feel they have to buy while they can afford it….very frustrating as they could just be setting themselves up for a life of debt & negative equity. But this is still a minority view & usually dismissed out of hand. No-one knows what will happen for sure, but there are some grim lessons from recent bubble history.

Where the Basingstoke Observer falls down IMO is in trying to ring-fence problems as being specific to these developments. It’s not just down to high-rise & overbuilding flats. House prices aren’t reasonable in comparison to renting, earnings, history, future economic prospects or alternative assets. It would be nice to think they can fall without taking out jobs & prosperity….maybe if it happens slowly?

I’ve only been into Victory Hill, access is a problem, older developments do sound like a better bet especially if they're bigger too.

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HOLA446
The adverts for Alencon House (IBM building) are already on rightmove:

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/viewdetails-139...10&tr_t=buy

Meanwhile, there are an impressive number of duplex penthouses at Crown Heights stacking up at sub 300K:

299K: http://www.rightmove.co.uk/viewdetails-722...10&tr_t=buy

299K: http://www.rightmove.co.uk/viewdetails-683...10&tr_t=buy

299K: http://www.rightmove.co.uk/viewdetails-647...10&tr_t=buy

285K: http://www.rightmove.co.uk/viewdetails-135...10&tr_t=buy

My personal favourite is this one because it appears to be an end unit with a huge terrace:

295K: http://www.rightmove.co.uk/viewdetails-161...10&tr_t=buy

Although my original choice is cheaper and still seems to have a bit of a terrace (also not overlooked / end unit):

249K: http://www.rightmove.co.uk/viewdetails-158...=9&tr_t=buy

If I wasn't being discriminated-against for being an engineer in this country and wasn't looking at a 7.5 times income mortgage for it, I'd be in the market for such a place as a sure signal to my peers that I'd made it in life. People have told me I word things in such a way as to not let on when I'm being sarcastic. You'll just have to guess which part of this sentence is meant and which isn't.

Victory Hill also now appears to be putting in an appearance. 3, yes 3, duplex appartments have appeared over the last few months:

249K: http://www.rightmove.co.uk/viewdetails-812...=9&tr_t=buy

249K: http://www.rightmove.co.uk/viewdetails-158...=9&tr_t=buy

249K: http://www.rightmove.co.uk/viewdetails-699...=9&tr_t=buy

I suppose with this many, even at these prices, they're getting ready for the next leg down. Whether that happens now or after an IR rise to 6%, who knows.

Looks as though Skyline Plaza may be selling the higher price flats first from the Rightmove ads, I can’t imagine they’re keen on seeing so many VH/CH duplexes suddenly appearing at big losses. The lowest entry point is now at £163k and isn't a quick sale so far, but if the £165k flat is any guide it's not going anywhere quickly. Suspect these flats are burning BTLs money. In the past in this situation, properties re-appear as 'to-lets', but if you haven't been able to rent out either, what do you do next as a BTL?

I'm guessing you'd be 'in the market for such a place' in a 'with success comes Victory' sort of way.

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HOLA447

I'm not sure if this "latest news" is current as it's not dated, but it restores Crown Heights to its rightful place at the top of House Prices in Your Area:

http://www.basingstokeobserver.com/courierNews.aspx?id=519

Brook House looks destined to become a social housing development, which is to be applauded if it provides decent accommodation at a reasonable price. Or do we have to go once again through the charade of 'luxury apartments' designed without considering human needs?

I like the quote “Thousands of people live in tower blocks quite happily without being murderers, prostitutes or taking drugs.” What's he trying to say about the other million or two?

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HOLA448
I'm not sure if this "latest news" is current as it's not dated, but it restores Crown Heights to its rightful place at the top of House Prices in Your Area:

http://www.basingstokeobserver.com/courierNews.aspx?id=519

Brook House looks destined to become a social housing development, which is to be applauded if it provides decent accommodation at a reasonable price. Or do we have to go once again through the charade of 'luxury apartments' designed without considering human needs?

I like the quote “Thousands of people live in tower blocks quite happily without being murderers, prostitutes or taking drugs.” What's he trying to say about the other million or two?

Saw a documentary on flats in Bethnal Green recently

seemed to imply that they were fine if

1.Tenants were hand-picked best were single professionals without pets / children

2. A lot of money was spent on upkeep / maintenance

3.There were a lot of local amenities ie shops / bars / gyms et

Flats work well in Scandinavia where poulation is naturally clean and tidy

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HOLA449
Saw a documentary on flats in Bethnal Green recently

seemed to imply that they were fine if

1.Tenants were hand-picked best were single professionals without pets / children

2. A lot of money was spent on upkeep / maintenance

3.There were a lot of local amenities ie shops / bars / gyms et

Flats work well in Scandinavia where poulation is naturally clean and tidy

I'm not sure this bodes well for Basingstoke!

Neither Crown Heights nor Victory Hill gives the impression of being well-made & housing associations aren't likely to stump up much for cosmetic upkeep. Skyline Plaza is likely to be similar; it will sell initially to professionals at high price, & then face uncertainty when housing association allocations change its character.

Too many concrete boxes in too little space?

Edited by somethingfishy
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HOLA4410

A bit more speculation on Basingstoke's continuing property slow motion train crash.

Anyone whose only BTL exposure is restricted to Crown Heights or after has put his balls on the line, but it's impossible to know how many are cringeing at the nasty fate that's looming.

There are 20-ish Crown Heights flats (probably double counting some multi-agency) on the market at the moment. Most prices are around 180k, but there are several at 165k which have been around for some weeks. Some say 'no forward chain' or 'can be sold with furniture', which signal likely distressed BTL bail outs, remember BTLs are long term investors. EAs may be becoming coy about releasing even this limited information as it reveals seller weakness.

BTLs may be hoping that the train grinds to a halt at the last moment, but in the meantime they're either relying on credit or cash to cover their position, both of which have to end at some point.

Mortgagees can't pull the plug without admitting that mass-market BTL has been a fiasco which is going to end in disaster, because at the same time their marketing machines are still trying to lend to anyone who can stagger through the door. Better to close your eyes and cover your ears while raking in as much commission and salary for as long as possible, then look for a scapegoat later.

Meanwhile, Sarah Beeny is on More4 every day next week with cheerful, carefully selected tales of property entrepreneurs making lots of money with minimal effort. BBC staff are reportedly going on courses to learn how not to lie, but Sarah has left her invitation on her otherwise immaculately tidy mantlepiece.

Edited by somethingfishy
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HOLA4411

There’s not much evidence of sales taking place in Crown Heights or Victory Hill, or of any price reductions. Perhaps the ‘buy now or you’ll never be able to afford to own’ argument is finally disappearing and people are waiting to see how far prices fall as interest rates rise.

What about this one labelled ‘sold’ in the first line of text though?

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/viewdetails-124...=8&tr_t=buy

Hang on a moment, there’s another one, same price, same floor, identical kitchen, living room….

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/viewdetails-161...=8&tr_t=buy

If someone else appears to have paid close to £170k for a flat, it appears your money is safe spending a similar sum on another flat, perhaps even imagining Kirstie Allsop saying you’ve ‘snapped up a bargain’ if you pay a few thousand less. You may have been mislead.

Sales can and do fall through, and are subsequently re-advertised with a different agent. There is no excuse possible in this case as the agent will be aware that the flat has not been sold - they have not received any commission & it‘s no longer on their books! In no other industry would it be considered acceptable to misrepresent an asset worth say, £120k, (not £170k) as a matter of commonly accepted practice. It’s not even very difficult to audit. How many of the flats labelled ’sold’ have actually just been withdrawn from the market? We have no easy way of knowing.

If an insurance company attempted systematic price manipulation as seems to happen in EAs, it would probably face large fines, be forced to pay compensation and not be allowed to sell until it proved it could manage its business honestly. Why not adopt the same approach?

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HOLA4412

Instead of laboriously counting just Crown Heights flats for sale on Rightmove to get an comparative indicator, it's easier to search RG21 for flats with & without 'sold' labels to get an idea of how things are going. There seems to be lots of Victory Hill flats coming on to the market.

RG21/Flats:

On 7th August 108 for sale/ 37 labelled as sold.

On 9th August 115 for sale/ 35 labelled as sold.

The last LR sale for CH/VH on houseprices.co.uk I could find was on 5/4/07. They should be flooding the LR database for July!

Skyline Plaza looked like a game of giant Jenga when I last saw it, minus windows. There’s 2 stories to go on top, I wouldn’t stand too close if it looks a bit wobbly. It’s probably been held up by bad weather but is going full steam ahead into a market saturated with nearly new flats.

From a quick sample, many flats are for offer with 'no forward chain' or with tenants. It seems only fair to help BTLs sell their flats for what they're truly worth, price reductions are clearly not needed. This week‘s marketing vision: repaint Crown Heights magnolia & put up the prices by 30k. It’s a proven winner!

The flat mentioned in the previous post is now 'for sale' with both estate agents.

It's not talking to yourself that's a sign of madness, it's when you start answering yourself back......

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  • 2 weeks later...
12
HOLA4413

Some good articles in this weeks local rag:

http://www.basingstokegazette.co.uk/news/l...1629915.0.0.php

Sir.-What are the authorities going to do about the nightly disturbances in Basingstoke town centre?

On practically a daily basis, between the hours of midnight and 3.30am, we are subjected to a tirade of noise, singing, chanting, arguing and abuse.

We also have to observe youths using the area between Crown Heights and The Anvil car park as a toilet, especially in the nearby alleyway, which we have now nicknamed argument alley.

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As if this wasn't enough, we have taxi drivers tooting their horns at each other for no apparent reason during all hours of the night (which is illegal between the hours of dusk and dawn), and, only recently, a full-scale row between two drivers developed at 1am about who got to the rank first.

As if the months of nightly angle-grinding on the railway wasn't enough.

Can I suggest that the council installs open-air urinals in "argument alley" and has relationship councillors available in the early hours?

Perhaps the final song played in the clubs should be the last waltz, to hopefully have a calming influence on their patrons before they come and wake us all up.

Also, if someone could teach the taxi drivers how to speak and not shout at each other, we would all be eternally grateful.

If we weren't so tired, maybe we could have a good laugh at these people's antics.

This behaviour would not be tolerated in any other residential location - and we at Crown Heights are not prepared to tolerate it any longer.

I echo Paul Clarkes comments entirely. We are constantly woken at night time by this row but many of us here are trapped.

Whilst tennants come and go (more often go) we who paid top prices for our properties on empty promises by the owners of the developments, have seen property prices here plummet so we could only sell at a loss which is not really an option for most.

Crown heights is becoming very run down. I have observed graphitti on walls, some of a racist nature. We have a broken window in block 3 which is full door size and by the entrance door which has not been fixed for over 2 months and jagged glass was left exposed for 3 days before it was boarded up after we all complained it was dangerous, the lifts don't work and one was out of order for 3 months, there is litter everywhere, security is a joke with gangs of drug smoking kids gathering on the stairways, brothels and drug dens are openly operated with the authorities turning a blind eye, (at least it's off the streets) residents clamped with money demanded by menace fully supported by the complex management Peverel OM. car parks poorly lit, full of rubbish and the barriers sometimes out of order and they never grit the exit roads in the winter so residents have to slip and slide to get out of the complex.

Someone please rescue us from this living nightmare. No wonder tower blocks in many towns and cities are being demolished!!!

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  • 3 weeks later...
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HOLA4414
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HOLA4415

"Crown heights is becoming very run down. I have observed graphitti on walls, some of a racist nature. We have a broken window in block 3 which is full door size and by the entrance door which has not been fixed for over 2 months and jagged glass was left exposed for 3 days before it was boarded up after we all complained it was dangerous, the lifts don't work and one was out of order for 3 months, there is litter everywhere, security is a joke with gangs of drug smoking kids gathering on the stairways, brothels and drug dens are openly operated with the authorities turning a blind eye, (at least it's off the streets) residents clamped with money demanded by menace fully supported by the complex management Peverel OM. car parks poorly lit, full of rubbish and the barriers sometimes out of order and they never grit the exit roads in the winter so residents have to slip and slide to get out of the complex.

Someone please rescue us from this living nightmare. No wonder tower blocks in many towns and cities are being demolished!!!"

:lol:

:huh:

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  • 2 weeks later...
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HOLA4416

I was driving up the M3 on Sunday, went past a building site literally next to the motorway in Basingstoke, big sign up, advertising the exciting new development. Mind-boggling, who drives along the motorway and then thinks 'gee, I'd like to live here, yes here, just by the hard shoulder'.

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HOLA4417
I was driving up the M3 on Sunday, went past a building site literally next to the motorway in Basingstoke, big sign up, advertising the exciting new development. Mind-boggling, who drives along the motorway and then thinks 'gee, I'd like to live here, yes here, just by the hard shoulder'.

Someone who lives further down the motorway on the hard shoulder? :P

btp

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  • 3 weeks later...
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HOLA4418
  • 3 months later...
18
HOLA4419

Tragedy!

Just as landlords find a way to make rental yields stack up on Crown Heights and Victory Hill properties, though renting their boxes out on a per hour basis, the police step in and put a stop to it.

http://www.basingstokegazette.co.uk/mostpo...n_crackdown.php

Prostitution crackdown

POLICE raided two Basingstoke homes as part of a multi-force crackdown on prostitution and money laundering.

Warrants were executed at properties in Crown Heights and Winterthur Way last Monday, after a lengthy investigation into money laundering and controlling prostitution.

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  • 7 months later...
19
HOLA4420

Hell it's been a long time since I've posted on here......got a bit bored with it all.

Then I came accross this:

20 Apr 2004 91 Crown Heights, £211,995

31 Mar 2008 91 Crown Heights, £145,000

That's a staggering £66,995 off original price.....an eyewatering 31.6%

Warms the cockles of m' heart.

If they drop another 30% might consider getting myself a little crash pad.

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HOLA4421

Oh it makes me feel so good.....the number of people telling me to buy one of those flats....one of my friends did in 2005. Poor lad.

As much as I'd rather be stuck in a housing association brothel/crack den overlooking the car park and train station and Liquid, I'll keep my rented flat a stones throw from the Thames in Barnes thanks.

:rolleyes:

I'm sure I heard 'reminiscent of the French Riviera' somewhere in the marketing blurb, he he.

Crown Heights looks absolutely dreadful now.

What do we reckon the odds are of the old IBM building development actually being finished? :)

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  • 3 weeks later...
21
HOLA4422

Only 4 new apartments remaining in The Heights!

NO STAMP DUTY TO PAY ON SELECTED APARTMENTS AT SKYLINE PLAZA!

The Heights at Skyline Plaza has proved to be a very popular new address within the centre of a boom town. As the tallest residential building for miles around, it stands as a shining beacon to the modern lifestyle in Hampshire's commercial hub.

Reaching 8 stories into the air, it offers a range of new contemporary studio and Manhattan-style suites along with 1 & 2 bedroom apartments and duplex penthouses – all with spectacular outlooks. Sweeping views glow through the glass, while far above the hustle and bustle of the town you're cocooned in your own private haven.

With allocated underground parking available to some one bedroom and all two bedroom apartments, these superb, spacious apartments are the ultimate in stylish living.

AAAAaaaaa I just snorted my tea...brilliant :D

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  • 11 months later...
22
HOLA4423

I needed to have some repairs on my house recently and the insurance company put me in Crown Heights temporarily.

All the time I was there I had the feeling it was very familiar.

It finally came to me, Nelson Mandela towers in only fools & horses.

:D Todays lifestyle appartments, tommorows slums :D

Edited by The Chainsaw Dude
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HOLA4424
24
HOLA4425

Aaaah, lived in the 'stoke for 10 years before moving to sunny Deutschland.

Just to keep the thread up to date here's a nice juicy one for you:

131, Crown Heights

28/11/2003 £299,995

21/05/2009 £152,500

Not bad, only cost them £2300 a month plus the £1300 or so cost of the IO mortgage. Don't know what I was thinking of only asking £700 a month when I was letting my house.

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