redwing Posted January 2, 2006 Share Posted January 2, 2006 Found this hiding in another thread and thought it should get its own topic Thanks to TWT for finding it. Ohoho, looks like 2006 starts with some end to the denial, in France as well, a big boss admited at last that the down trend has started since septemeber but still does not show as house still sale ( but only well located and good ones), he mentions a fast and big fall (30%-40% over about 4 years). Here is the link for those who speak french (http://www.lexpansion.com/NLConj/4009.30.138670.html). This guy tends to be bull, so, on http://www.bulle-immobiliere.org which is the french equivalent of this site many thinks it means that the fall will be greater. I am one of those. TWT Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OLDFTB Posted January 2, 2006 Share Posted January 2, 2006 Brilliant find......if you can read French! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redwing Posted January 2, 2006 Author Share Posted January 2, 2006 Brilliant find......if you can read French! Degonflament - deflation immoblier - property/estate you'll get the giste of it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sithclone7 Posted January 2, 2006 Share Posted January 2, 2006 Using Prompt Online translation site. " Property prices are going to go down from 30 to 40 % over period from 4 to 5 years " Jean Michel Guerin is president of the Particular group to Individual. Fear you a reversal of the market of real estate in France in 2006? Reversal is already launched but it still does not see itself in valuable indications. Since September receipts, the property market distinctly tightened and they notice a switch-over of volumes, that is a fall of transactions. Notably in ancient. Today alone quality products (good site, good exhibition, well brought up floor, not enough jobs) are sold without problem, at valuable levels which continue advancing. Where from the perception, distorts, which the market continues carrying well. It is necessary to see that the medium delay of transaction went back up in about 8 weeks against 4 weeks on average in 2004. During the previous crisis, 15 years ago, the fall of the prices of stone indeed materialized only at the mi of 1991 while transactions diminished since spring, 1990. Actual reversal seems unavoidable. On one hand, because the conditions of borrowing are going to leave again in increase, even modestly. On the other hand, because household can hardly go no farther to the lengthening of the length of loans. Will the deflation of the bubble be violent? So violent as precedent that is a fall in the order of 30 - 40 % displayed over 4 or 5 years. Problem, it is that the level of debt of the individuals is more well brought up today than during the previous crisis and that the medium length of credits is also longer. Let us take the example of a young couple who got into debt over 25 years to buy his accommodation and who, because of unemployment or divorce, must sell retail its good at the end of five years. In case of fall of prices, the fruit of sale will be less than what he still owes to his bank. Let us take another example: that of an investor who bought from credit a flat benefiting from the tax exemption Of Robien and who counts on the remittance of a rent to pay the load of the borrowing. The fiscal "pack ice" offered by the constructors does not take into account of course a possible fall of rents. And these do not advance any more. In certain cases, the rentability of the investment could therefore be less than wait, making so the investor provide a financial effort non-anticipated to reimburse credit. The deflation of the property bubble will have an impact of course on the growth of French economy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Masked Tulip Posted January 2, 2006 Share Posted January 2, 2006 And the impact on all those Brits who bought second homes in France will be... lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oracle Posted January 2, 2006 Share Posted January 2, 2006 And the impact on all those Brits who bought second homes in France will be... lol well it's all their fault!!!!!!!that's the jolly out of this one. the EU economy,esp.france and germany has been flat on it's back since 2000,and the extent of the downturn has been masked by us brits going and morpping up properties abroad. the strenght of the euro has had some effect,but with the anount of liquidity in OUR real estate market filtering through to such places as france/spain/BULGARIA...you would have expected consumer spending to hold up better than it did. ...only means one thing,they will be taking a hammering the same as the UK will next year. ...probably worse if the UK really has sacrificed it's property market to tie to the dollar. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redwing Posted January 2, 2006 Author Share Posted January 2, 2006 A bit of French anecdotal... I sold house in UK in July and spent August/Sept/November touring south of France looking for a bargain. Exactly the sort of speculator mentioned above. Problem was: I couldn't find the bargains, all the best stuff snapped up and only the rough areas still experiencing a boom. So, now I'm a converted STR, house price bear and back in the UK looking for a job. Redwing Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shermanator Posted January 2, 2006 Share Posted January 2, 2006 And the impact on all those Brits who bought second homes in France will be... lol I sense the ruddy-faced farmers of the Dordogne et al. will be raising their Claret to this.....seeing as they sold delapidated old barns to gullible, Volvo estate drivers for ludicrous sums. I've got no sympathy for these second homers at all. Roll on the crash. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justice Posted January 2, 2006 Share Posted January 2, 2006 And the impact on all those Brits who bought second homes in France will be... lol as maybe but them that moved to france to live maybe LOL at you ! and yes i know about the riots but i also know a lot about living in that $hit house called the UK where even the old dare not go to an hospital as the visit may kill them with MRSA. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whiterabbit Posted January 2, 2006 Share Posted January 2, 2006 as maybe but them that moved to france to live maybe LOL at you ! and yes i know about the riots but i also know a lot about living in that $hit house called the UK where even the old dare not go to an hospital as the visit may kill them with MRSA. True enough a lot of smart money has sold up in the UK and moved to France, Spain, US etc. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redwing Posted January 2, 2006 Author Share Posted January 2, 2006 True enough a lot of smart money has sold up in the UK and moved to France, Spain, US etc. But it's too late to do it now. There was an interesting piece in the Guardian this week about Spanish property being built without planning permissions. Here's your link: http://www.guardian.co.uk/international/st...1674622,00.html More property investing lambs to the slaughter. Redwing Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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