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Poor Trading After Christmas.

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Guest Charlie The Tramp

A very interesting article, retail appears to have taken a nasty hit. The debt chickens are coming home to roost in greater numbers now.

One Advice, a debt counselling service, claims that more than 250,000 people owe at least £50,000 on credit cards, personal loans, overdrafts and other unsecured debts. And accountants Grant Thornton recently forecast 20,000 personal bankruptcies during the first three months of 2006.

Against this gloomy backdrop the stock market is eagerly anticipating a string of retail trading updates over the next three weeks, starting with Next on Wednesday. The City is expecting the clothing group to announce like-for-like sales down between 3pc and 5pc. Mark Charnock, retail analyst at Investec Securities, said: "Next's offer this Christmas looked like it hadn't quite hit the spot." He is forecasting like-for-like trading to be down about 6p

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A very interesting article, retail appears to have taken a nasty hit. The debt chickens are coming home to roost in greater numbers now.

Making a cut in interest rates more and more likely!

Edited by ILikeBigBoobs

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Guest Charlie The Tramp

Making a cut in interest rates more and more likely!

So the MPC`s remit is now to assist debtors and let inflationary pressures blow with the wind?

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Making a cut in interest rates more and more likely!

Where's or little friend who appeared to think the high street was booming ("for all of you who portended a high st. crash etc etc")?

Without sounding too arrogant, I got the timing of ths retail recession more or less right, aug '04.

As for lowering interest rates; I reckon the consumer is now under so much debt, lower IRs wil only make a difference at the margins. If people don't wish to spend, they can't be forced.

7 fat years, 7 lean years. It's there in the Bible and seems quite accurate.

BTW, this is just the beginning of one almighty fall-out.

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The fall in consumer spending isn't a major problem on it's own, it the rising unemployment that will result from the slowdown.

I'm expecting the job losses to really start kicking in this year (unemployment usually rises sharply after the end of a housing boom, for obvious reasons.)

2006 is not going to be a good year for the UK and it's stupid consumers

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A cut will bring out more spenders, relieving pressure on the current spenders. If you know what I mean.

No...no...no...no... what this country needs is:

1. A massive wage increase.

2. Gas / Electric bills to be cut by half.

3. Council tax to be abolished.

4. Tax reductions by 10% for everyone.

5. Free petrol.

6. Free education.(Uni)

7. Right-off all debts amassed so far.

And then house prices will sky-rocket.

Sadly if the above doesn’t happen TTRTR you’re screwed.

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TTRTR is a bull, but he is one who at least discusses what is happening and seems educated...

My parents rent out a flat.. one they bought years ago..

No mortgage owed at all... I guess that makes them BTL landlords..

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Guest Charlie The Tramp

A cut will bring out more spenders, relieving pressure on the current spenders. If you know what I mean.

TTRTR so the debtors will be encouraged to borrow more while having problems paying back what they already owe. I always suspected the banks were charities. :lol:

Remember the old East End money lenders. Ouch.

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TTRTR so the debtors will be encouraged to borrow more while having problems paying back what they already owe. I always suspected the banks were charities. :lol:

Remember the old East End money lenders. Ouch.

I think what TTRTR is saying is that lower rates will encourage those who have not borrowed-to-spend previously to now borrow and spend.

Whilst this is possible, I think it is unlikely, as these people are likely to be of the mindset that you shouldn't spend anything but your own money.

Personally rates would have to drop to zero before I would consider borrowing. Even then I'd still ensure I had capital available to cover the principle sum borrowed should rates rise.

NDL

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Experience shows that once consumers lose confidence, dropping interest rates starts to have less and less of an effect. The most extreme example is the recent history of Japan where even negative real interest rates could not get people to spend. Similar effects are observed by looking at previous recessions.

No doubt dropping interest rates will hurt savers, and impact some parts of the housing market. But once people start feeling stretched they won't risk purchases even if they are cheaper, if they believe that prices will come down further in future.

Expectation of further reductions in price, plus a smaller "wealth effect" will increase caution, even if IR's drop.

Dropping IR's may however reduce forced sales for a while.

My gut feel is for more stagnation in the overall market with a continuing fall in the oversupplied flat sector. Decreases in IR's will be balanced by increasing supply as more sellers try to take advantage of the spring selling season.

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I think what TTRTR is saying is that lower rates will encourage those who have not borrowed-to-spend previously to now borrow and spend.

Whilst this is possible, I think it is unlikely, as these people are likely to be of the mindset that you shouldn't spend anything but your own money.

Personally rates would have to drop to zero before I would consider borrowing. Even then I'd still ensure I had capital available to cover the principle sum borrowed should rates rise.

NDL

I can never understand the effect of interest rates on consumer borrowing to spend in the shops.

If people will pay 20% interest on a credit card then how do we expect them to spend more if the rate falls to 19% and less if it rises to 21%. If they will pay more than 4 times base to buy christmas presents which will be binned by now then is a reaction to interest rates, particularly in 1/4 % increments going to make a difference.

Could someone explain it to me?

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Guest Charlie The Tramp
I think what TTRTR is saying is that lower rates will encourage those who have not borrowed-to-spend previously to now borrow and spend.

I honestly believe that the past boom in retail was as the result of people getting into debt.

Whilst this is possible, I think it is unlikely, as these people are likely to be of the mindset that you shouldn't spend anything but your own money.

Entirely agree, the reason IMHO why retail must now accept their boom days are over for a long time.

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A cut will bring out more spenders, relieving pressure on the current spenders. If you know what I mean.

i know exactly what you mean. -your crazy.

i remember your plan on the farm back in hobart going wrong when you suggested we could 'float' the trapped animals out of the well by adding more water.

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I think I am right in saying that retailers who have had a poor Christmas have to report, by Law, this to the FSA by January 4th.

It rather depends on what 'poor' means. It's certainly a grey area.

Here's a little rundown of who I think some of the winners and losers will be :

Winners

John Lewis (+ Waitrose)

M&S

Woolworths

Sainsbury's

Primark

WH Smith

Losers

Next

French Connection

MFI

BHS

JJB Sports

JD Sports

House of Fraser

HMV

Ottaker's

Dixons

Debenhams

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Mr Joe shakes his head. Dropping interest rates to 0% and that £1000 debt is still a £1000 to payback. I seriously think the message is starting to hit home. Cheap credit is not all magic and lights.

It wouldn't be so bad if the money was borrowed to be used as an investment (Over priced property not recommended) But for cheap electronic junk, plastic breasts or massively depreciating new motors?

When the majority are going one way the smart often go the other.

Happy New Year and the best off luck when the credit card bills arrive.

Mr Joe.

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It rather depends on what 'poor' means. It's certainly a grey area.

Here's a little rundown of who I think some of the winners and losers will be :

Winners

John Lewis (+ Waitrose)

M&S

Woolworths

Sainsbury's

Primark

WH Smith

Losers

Next

French Connection

MFI

BHS

JJB Sports

JD Sports

House of Fraser

HMV

Ottaker's

Dixons

Debenhams

I think u have WH Smiths in the wrong place! and you have missed out tescos... Oh and Sainsburys will only be better than its previously poor performance! Oh and PC world (unless u include that in Dixons....) and B&Q, Focus etc etc

Edited by Spikey

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It rather depends on what 'poor' means. It's certainly a grey area.

Here's a little rundown of who I think some of the winners and losers will be :

Winners

John Lewis (+ Waitrose)

M&S

Woolworths

Sainsbury's

Primark

WH Smith

Losers

Next

French Connection

MFI

BHS

JJB Sports

JD Sports

House of Fraser

HMV

Ottaker's

Dixons

Debenhams

Boots are struggling too.

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A cut will bring out more spenders, relieving pressure on the current spenders. If you know what I mean.

wrong, even several cuts won't cancel out the increase in most peoples household bills this coming year, nor will their 2% pay rise help much. First couple of months will be quite gloomy for some with the arrival of the c/c bill, followed by the gas & electric. Oh, and don't forget to add on 5% for the council tax in March.

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I think what TTRTR is saying is that lower rates will encourage those who have not borrowed-to-spend previously to now borrow and spend.

Whilst this is possible, I think it is unlikely, as these people are likely to be of the mindset that you shouldn't spend anything but your own money.

Personally rates would have to drop to zero before I would consider borrowing. Even then I'd still ensure I had capital available to cover the principle sum borrowed should rates rise.

NDL

Here Here!

I consider myself to be one of these types and I really don't think that I am alone as most of my relatives think the same way. The singular purchase that will put me in debt will be my first home. This is sadly not going to happen in the near future.

I only spent a miserly £30 this Christmas on my G/F, of which £20 worth was from points collected at Boots, and £30 on two of my nieces. I also received gifts of similar value. Last year we agreed to buy each other items from the sales, this year we hav'nt even bothered looking.

IMHO I don't think that a rate cut will do that much. Will the lenders pass on any of the cut? Lets get real!

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Here Here!

I consider myself to be one of these types and I really don't think that I am alone as most of my relatives think the same way. The singular purchase that will put me in debt will be my first home. This is sadly not going to happen in the near future.

I only spent a miserly £30 this Christmas on my G/F, of which £20 worth was from points collected at Boots, and £30 on two of my nieces. I also received gifts of similar value. Last year we agreed to buy each other items from the sales, this year we hav'nt even bothered looking.

IMHO I don't think that a rate cut will do that much. Will the lenders pass on any of the cut? Lets get real!

Panic over it was simply all to do with the weather.

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Panic over it was simply all to do with the weather.

I see, makes sense now you mention it. I bought some decent gloves a couple of years back, a scarf from the G/F in August and a decent winter jacket from a McArther Glen outlet a few months back. All cash purchases! No need to spend anymore, roll on the cold snap!

:D

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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