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FWIW weather forecasting models over last two days have very strongly come into line with quite a cold spell of weather developing across Southern UK (and most of Western/Europe) as well. These are the operational short term forecasting models used by a number of weather forecasting centres - as opposed to the long range experimental one the Met Office used to stir up things a couple of weeks ago. (60% chance colder winter than long term average - long term means different things to weather forecasters and climate scientists).

So next couple of days will see forecasts going out to futures traders with a spell (openended) of quite cold weather instore for UK.

In addition this will be seen to reinforce the Met offices earlier experimental winter forecast of cold weather.

Simultaneously the russians are flexing their muscles by f+++ing around with the gas pipe that feeds western Europe - with the poles claiming pressure is falling.

Doesn't take a genius to see there'll be a bit of a instabilty in the markets this week.

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Smack on my man

Our economy is on a knife edge and a fart will push it over the edge so if Russia stops the gas supply for even a few days then all hell will break loose.

Longer term Russia will get richer and we will become poorer and remember your average Russian in Moscow is already happier than the average brit is if they are living in Slough

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I can see the case for Nuclear power getting stronger by the day...

or even reopening our coal mines and using coal powered stations - at least we'd be self-sufficient.

crude

Edited by crudeFool

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This business between Russia and Ukraine could affect the UK at exactly the wrong moment! The forecast for this coming weekend (including Friday) is cold and snowy. Seeing how bad an effect cold weather had during the low demand Christmas week I expect similarly cold weather during a normal working week will cause disruption. The Russia/Ukraine thing can only make it harder for UK to import gas - even if it's there, the increased risk of it not being might make the Europeans reluctant to sell to the UK.

I've written about it in more detail here: It was cold, will it be cold when it matters?

Back in August I wrote this: UK Gas and Electricity Crisis Looming about how this winter we faced real difficulties with our gas supply. After the Christmas week I now think problems are imminent. Maybe the end of this week if the forecasts are reasonably accurate.

I'll be amazed if we make it through this winter without the most significant energy problems we've seen in more than a decade.

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I've written about it in more detail here: It was cold, will it be cold when it matters?

What an excellent link - thanks

UK, French, ECMWF models all going for blocked cold high scenario from Thursday onwards with a cold poalar continental airflow right across UK from the Black Sea/Steppes. Rumour is UK max temp Thursday unlikly to be above +2C - getting colder after that.....Snow ...you betcha

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This is interesting.

There is an arguable case that the Soviet Union fell apart because its income from oil exports in the 1980s was attacked by the US, persuading the Saudis to open the taps to cause the oil price to collapse in 1986. Just after that, Russian oil production peaked and went into decline, so there was a double whammy that led to a collapse in export earnings.

There is an interesting paper on this:

http://www.fromthewilderness.com/free/ww3/...a_russ_oil.html

Now, the Russians doubtless recall this tactic. Now that the West, and especially WEurope is dependent on Russian gas and oil exports (Russia produces almost as much oil as Saudi at the moment, and more than the USA), what do you think the Russians are going to do? Are they going to be all sympathetic and understanding and offering the apron for us to greet into..... Or will they observe the extraordinary vulnerability of their former arch-rivals USA and UK and say to themselves.... F*CK YOU @SSHOLES!!!

What would you do? This is their opportunity to do more than get even... look at what they are doing, buying gold and building links to the Middle East and India. They will be energy self sufficient for a very long time, and their polity does not depend on autocentric consumerism to survive. They'd be idiots not to stuff us....

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I know it's bit of as far as the weather predictions go, but just looked at the metcheck dot com homepage and the average temperatures for next weekend look mighty chilly... -9 for Leeds next Sat night potentially! nice! bbrrrrrrrr

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Who says russia will get rich? Isn't it Shell etc in there exploiting it?

Yep. They now have now incentive to explore the North Sea anymore. Russia could bring a lot of natural resources to the table.

I'm starting to sense an element of fear on various issues, wonder what the markets will look like when they open?

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We have the mother of all high pressures building over Scandiniavia from Thursday onwards. These buggers tend to stick around for at least two to three weeks, even a month or more sometimes (winters of 47 and 63, 85 and 86). All the weather forecasts are coming into line on this one, so we will have at least one week when the temp doesn't get above 0c even during the day and night time temps will go below -10 in central England northward. The chances of snow are very high from the middle of next week (14th Jan) onward as a low pressure tries to push the high back. Over the past ten years the low has usually won, but this high is such a monster that all the low can do is nudge against it's Western fringe and dump shed loads of snow across Western and Southern Britain.

Europe will be even colder, France and Germany will have max daytime temps below -5, and nightime temps below -15...so they won't be needing their gas will they.

Three day week anyone?

Add in the first confirmed case of human to human bird flu transmission later this month, and we have the beginnings of the perfect economic storm that will bring our debt fueled economy to its knees. And all this could have been avoided if they'd kept house prices in the CPI (not the bird flu, and cold weather of course).

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But North Sea isn't so enticing now theres double the tax on it....oops

This is a red herring, even with Browns extra tax the North Sea is still one of the best places to operate... if there was any oil/gas left to find there.
All the weather forecasts are coming into line on this one, so we will have at least one week when the temp doesn't get above 0c even during the day and night time temps will go below -10 in central England northward.

Europe will be even colder, France and Germany will have max daytime temps below -5, and nightime temps below -15...so they won't be needing their gas will they.

This is the concern, going by the experience of the 29th, shortages will result. I would go as far to suggest that UK gas supply can’t easily meet demand during a weekday with an average temperature below zero. Cold air over Europe and the possibility of interruption with the Russia/Ukrainian business make it very unlikely we're going to be able to import gas as required.

I think the next couple of weeks will see incredible disruption, the sad thing is this has been forecast in detail for months and generally for years yet nothing was done.

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First Oil prices hit the roof and now Gas prices too

You guys need a few days in the cold to concentrate your minds so you will all become happy about paying yet more money in stealth taxes as Brown will not be giving you any north sea Gas/Petrol at a discount price like they have been doing in parts of the old eastern block.

Still you can always put it on the credit card if you have any credit left.

Bet they keep the electric going for all them CCTV cameras and the inland revenue has backup generators so fines can go out on time.

The next step will be to introduce some bull$hit environmental law to stop people using solid fuel as this becomes tax avoidance.

I don’t know where the money is going to come from to maintain payments on all these massive home loans do you !

"Add in the first confirmed case of human to human bird flu transmission later this month, and we have the beginnings of the perfect economic storm that will bring our debt fueled economy to its knees. And all this could have been avoided if they'd kept house prices in the CPI (not the bird flu, and cold weather of course)."

Thats it Brown can blame it all on external matters but all that debt he created is not going to help people adapt to a change in circumstances, I’m off out to buy a paraffin heater just in case.

Edited by Justice

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The next step will be to introduce some bull$hit environmental law to stop people using solid fuel as this becomes tax avoidance.

They'd tax the gas coming out of my **** if they could stand the smell!

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This is a red herring, even with Browns extra tax the North Sea is still one of the best places to operate... if there was any oil/gas left to find there.

Yes, but...

If that was the case, why have Shell scaled down their operations in the North Sea already?

Shell's two fingered salute

The market is always right and this is the vote of confidence in North Sea exploration.

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Yes, but...

If that was the case, why have Shell scaled down their operations in the North Sea already?

Shell's two fingered salute

The market is always right and this is the vote of confidence in North Sea exploration.

I don't believe Gordon Brown's recent tax decision is the reason for Shell only running two rigs where they previously planned three. This is just Shell trying to make Brown look bad.

But this tax isn't so large... $60 oil is vastly more (even after this tax) than they would have planned for two years ago. Their obvious response to the suggestion of more tax is less investment, less service, less product etc whatever business you are in. In this case however I think the oil majors working in the UK are cash rich and whatever Brown decides to do tax wise the North Sea output will meet its geological potential

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The next step will be to introduce some bull$hit environmental law to stop people using solid fuel as this becomes tax avoidance.

As an aside, the government recently gave a tax break for power generators on fuel oil and gasoil, which some of them can use as a substitute for gas. They obviously know what's coming.

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This is the concern, going by the experience of the 29th, shortages will result. I would go as far to suggest that UK gas supply can’t easily meet demand during a weekday with an average temperature below zero. Cold air over Europe and the possibility of interruption with the Russia/Ukrainian business make it very unlikely we're going to be able to import gas as required.

I think the next couple of weeks will see incredible disruption, the sad thing is this has been forecast in detail for months and generally for years yet nothing was done.

My late Aunt lived off a country road, and didn't have access to mains gas. I remember her saying once when she visited mum that some of her younger relatives felt she was being over-cautious because she always made sure her (larger-than-normal) heating oil tank was full by the end of October, plus she had a couple of tons of firewood and several kilo's of plain candles in the back of her garage.

Maybe not such a bad move after all.

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This is the kind of thing that's going to reduce UK gas imports, it'll be very interesting to watch the market tomorrow.

French utility Gaz de France SA said today there had been a “significant deterioration” in natural gas flows from Russia, after the price dispute which led to Moscow cutting off gas supplies to neighbouring Ukraine.

State-controlled GDF also said it was “concerned” by the prospect of a longer-term reduction in supply from Russia in midwinter.

“Gaz de France confirms a significant deterioration in the quantities of Russian gas delivered since the night of Sunday to Monday,” the company said in a statement. It said the drop amounted to about 25% to 30% of typical contractual volumes.

http://breakingnews.iol.ie/news/story.asp?...836&p=y6775x54z

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They say the UK has enough gas reserves to last two weeks ! I don’t think so as all them gas pressure vessels empty overnight and don’t think Europe will lend you any just now.

Do not rely on electric heaters as it takes 10kw of gas to produce 3kw needed for an electric fire so if you all do that then you know what will happen !

Still you can always look forwards to sitting in a traffic jam on the M25 whilst on your way to work

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Personally I don't think this issue is as problematic as it first seems. But what is a concern is that this issue, combined with Iraq, Iran and the recent hurricanes surely must focus peoples minds on energy security. From now on energy prices are on a one way upward trend.

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Personally I don't think this issue is as problematic as it first seems. But what is a concern is that this issue, combined with Iraq, Iran and the recent hurricanes surely must focus peoples minds on energy security. From now on energy prices are on a one way upward trend.

I think you're wrong. We rely on a constant supply of gas from Europe to heat our homes and fuel our power stations. Any interruption to this and normal life will quickly grind to a halt.

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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