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Annie

Leaning Towards Acceptance

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Hi There

Have been enjoying viewing posts as a guest for a while now. My husband and I are expats at the moment but will be returning to UK next year and will be renting for a while until we find a house to buy.

I've truly believed for a long time that house prices will start to fall soon, purely because I believe that first time buyers couldn't possibly afford today's prices, but have recently started to feel that I'm beginning to accept that this is the way it is now. That it's now more expensive to buy a house than it used to be. I hope my gut feeling is wrong.

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Guest Charlie The Tramp

The biggest debt bubble is about to burst and the consequences are yet to be seen. So it`s a matter of wait and see what comes forth in 2006. Most people have their heads in the sand here in the UK, so any shocks to come are not yet on their radar screens.

BTW how are you enjoying Kuwait? :)

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The biggest debt bubble is about to burst and the consequences are yet to be seen. So it`s a matter of wait and see what comes forth in 2006. Most people have their heads in the sand here in the UK, so any shocks to come are not yet on their radar screens.

BTW how are you enjoying Kuwait? :)

You were close. How do you know? We're actually in Saudi.

I've always enjoyed reading your posts Charlie the Tramp. I hope you're right.

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dont believe the spin from the vis

as the saying goes-they would say that wouldnt they

the volume of transactions is down about 35% in 1 year

house prices have dropped about 10% from the peak in the south and are just going negative in the north.

construction is already in recsssion and if that wasnt enough energy prices will wipe out more of our manufacturing base.

the economy is riding on borrowed money ( private and public sector)

my advice- come back, rent and pick your time. there will be a good choice later in the year.

if you do buy, dont pay top dollar unless you can afford to take a hit over the next 10 years or so

happy new year

the don

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In ANY market (property, stocks, bonds etc) when even the bears start accepting that the market isn't going to fall (or the bulls accept that it isn't going to rise) then that signals the last of the buyers / sellers doing their transactions and from that point on the market turns.

Bottom of market - when the last bulls throw in the towel and proclaim that it's never going up so the best thing to do is get out and stay out.

Top of market - when the last bears give up on the idea of falls and decide to buy because a crash just isn't going to happen.

Seems were at the top.

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The ‘belief’ argument is what I presume is holding the market up at present. When visiting home in the South East there isn’t even the faintest whiff of worry from anyone I speak to. Even people who I would presume to have some basic understanding, such as my best friend’s girlfriend - an accountant – or a very old friend who owns a successful hedge fund company, seem oblivious to any chance of a downward slide. In fact everyone I know have their fingers well and truly in the pie – several properties, IO mortgages for second homes and/or huge FTBer mortgages. No one thinks any differently. Typical stories like that of hedge fund’s friend unable to sell a flat are met with answers like “wrong estate agent” or “get another buyer”.

Living in Northern Ireland - at the other end of the UK property spectrum – is like watching a repeat episode of life. I would suggest they are further behind in the cycle, however it seems to have been one long upward trend for the last 15 years with a varying pace of increase. Currently at fever pitch, with leaps of 20% in 2005, any questions about irrational prices here singles you out to be a clueless moron. Even my letter to the Province’s main paper was either not understood (not that it was a particular clever piece!) or cut out and pinned up to laugh at (by the girlfriend’s parents.) The only glimmer of understanding comes from cab drivers, who I believe are generally wise on many matters.

To my mind the UK property market has acted like a forest fire. Currently roaring away at the outer edges (in the case of Northern Ireland) while still slowly burning cinders at its starting point in the South East. The wind that fanned the flames being human faith and cheap money. What or who will act as the fire brigade we’re still waiting to see, or perhaps this will die its own slow natural death and get us back to reality.

Happy New Year fellow HPCers!

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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