Alfa Posted December 31, 2005 Share Posted December 31, 2005 It looks as if a crash in 2006 is even less likely than the one you were all hoping for in 2005. From the Telegraph:- "House prices to fall 20pc", Capital Economics warned last year. What happened? Prices rose 4.5pc. Capital Economics has now revised its forecast, predicting a 2pc decline in 2006 and 5pc over the following two years. But even that looks bearish. Also guys please change the graph on your front page. The levelling off period has been happening for some time now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Realistbear Posted December 31, 2005 Share Posted December 31, 2005 It looks as if a crash in 2006 is even less likely than the one you were all hoping for in 2005. From the Telegraph:- "House prices to fall 20pc", Capital Economics warned last year. What happened? Prices rose 4.5pc. Capital Economics has now revised its forecast, predicting a 2pc decline in 2006 and 5pc over the following two years. But even that looks bearish. Also guys please change the graph on your front page. The levelling off period has been happening for some time now. http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...showtopic=21263 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubble Pricker Posted December 31, 2005 Share Posted December 31, 2005 A severe market correction usually begins after the last bear has thrown in the towel. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Without_a_Paddle Posted December 31, 2005 Share Posted December 31, 2005 http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...showtopic=21263 Not sure why you're laughing, RB. Whilst I agree a correction is on its way, I'm not convinced anything significant will happen in 2006. Alfa also makes a good point about the graph. Why are there no more graphs or pie charts posted any more on here? Could it be DENIAL? (denial of an initial soft landing playing out?) You're going to have to wait many years (and pay a lot more rent) before any kind of dip occurs I fear. Sorry Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Realistbear Posted December 31, 2005 Share Posted December 31, 2005 (edited) Not sure why you're laughing, RB. Whilst I agree a correction is on its way, I'm not convinced anything significant will happen in 2006. Alfa also makes a good point about the graph. Why are there no more graphs or pie charts posted any more on here? Could it be DENIAL? (denial of an initial soft landing playing out?) You're going to have to wait many years (and pay a lot more rent) before any kind of dip occurs I fear. Sorry I have to laugh because its the same hype as during the last crash. The link to the Sunday Times headlines during the Great Crash (1989-1996) sums it up. Denial will not stop the crash from happening. The "soft landing" is as much of a myth dutring this present correction as it was during the Great Crash. The laws of economics do not work that way as the crash chart on this website shows. Edited December 31, 2005 by Realistbear Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Without_a_Paddle Posted December 31, 2005 Share Posted December 31, 2005 I have to laugh because its the same hype as during the last crash. The link to the Sunday Times headlines during the Great Crash (1989-1996) sums it up. Denial will not stop the crash from happening. The "soft landing" is as much of a myth dutring this present correction as it was during the Great Crash. The laws of economics do not work that way as the crash chart on this website shows. I suppose it depends on how you determine 'soft landing' The 'experts' on here and at Capital Economics were predicting the crash to be under way by now... it isn't under way (yet). Prices have wobbled for the last year. Some would say that is similar to a soft landing. I guess it depends what happens in 2006. If CE have got it right (do they ever get it right?) then I would class three years of stagnation or low falls, a 3 year soft landing. As I hinted in my first post, anyone waiting for a dip (by dip I mean trough) in prices is going to have to wait a LONG TIME and pay a LOT OF RENT. I don't see that as something to laugh about... Why don't they update the graph? Prices rose 5% in the 3rd quarter this year according to the LR figures. If the main web graph isn't updated, then that is DENIAL in my book. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkG Posted December 31, 2005 Share Posted December 31, 2005 As I hinted in my first post, anyone waiting for a dip (by dip I mean trough) in prices is going to have to wait a LONG TIME and pay a LOT OF RENT. And? Let's suppose that you're right, and prices remain static for five years before they crash. I pay 5k a year in rent, you pay 10k a year in interest on your mortgage, plus maintenance, plus council tax and other crap that I don't pay (or, more precisely, which is already covered in the rent)... then you lose 50% of the value of your house in the belated crash. Which of us is the fool? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Without_a_Paddle Posted December 31, 2005 Share Posted December 31, 2005 (edited) And? Let's suppose that you're right, and prices remain static for five years before they crash. I pay 5k a year in rent, you pay 10k a year in interest on your mortgage, plus maintenance, plus council tax and other crap that I don't pay (or, more precisely, which is already covered in the rent)... then you lose 50% of the value of your house in the belated crash. Which of us is the fool? Once again you misinterpret me. What I was trying to say was: Is having to WAIT many years before buying a house at a realistic price a laughing matter? You seem to think I am saying BUY NOW. I'm not saying buy now. I'm saying the future is grim for FTBs. Edited December 31, 2005 by Without_a_Paddle Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
29929BlackTuesday Posted December 31, 2005 Share Posted December 31, 2005 Not sure why you're laughing, RB. Whilst I agree a correction is on its way, I'm not convinced anything significant will happen in 2006. Alfa also makes a good point about the graph. Why are there no more graphs or pie charts posted any more on here? Could it be DENIAL? (denial of an initial soft landing playing out?) You're going to have to wait many years (and pay a lot more rent) before any kind of dip occurs I fear. Sorry Watch out for Iran trading it's oil in Euros March 1st. Isn't that what Iraq threatened to do? To comment on your last point - we can wait! We have to / would be stupid not to as rent is much cheaper than mortgage! Remember - it's the second mouse that gets the cheese. Best of luck selling your house! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Without_a_Paddle Posted December 31, 2005 Share Posted December 31, 2005 Watch out for Iran trading it's oil in Euros March 1st. Isn't that what Iraq threatened to do? To comment on your last point - we can wait! We have to / would be stupid not to as rent is much cheaper than mortgage! Remember - it's the second mouse that gets the cheese. Best of luck selling your house! Actually, I don't plan to sell my house. But thanks for the goodwishes! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the end is a bit nigher Posted December 31, 2005 Share Posted December 31, 2005 Anyone who really believes that house prices can rise dramatically out of proportion and stay there (the soft landing) really doesn't have a grasp of basic economics. Much as the muppets refuse to believe it and cling to their V.I. indices, prices are falling. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Time to raise the rents. Posted December 31, 2005 Share Posted December 31, 2005 Anyone who really believes that house prices can rise dramatically out of proportion and stay there (the soft landing) really doesn't have a grasp of basic economics. Much as the muppets refuse to believe it and cling to their V.I. indices, prices are falling. By which index? The one on the front page of HPC.co.uk? The longer the graph on the front page is left there, the longer the credibility of this site suffers. This subjest has been raised many times over the last 6 months & not an ounce of action has taken place. Stinks of DENIAL and VI lies to me...... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Without_a_Paddle Posted December 31, 2005 Share Posted December 31, 2005 Anyone who really believes that house prices can rise dramatically out of proportion and stay there (the soft landing) really doesn't have a grasp of basic economics. Much as the muppets refuse to believe it and cling to their V.I. indices, prices are falling. Wasn't there a hidden houseprice crash during the 1970s? Prices didn't actually crash. Inflation effectively made it easier to afford the high prices. Some would class this as a soft landing. Like I said before, it depends how you classify a soft landing. If you look at the home page graph it is adjusted for inflation to make the 1970s crash stand out more. Also, I (WAP) am NOT predicting a long term soft landing BTW. I just put forward the view of Capital Economics. Read my first post again. I am expecting a correction, but I fear it may be further away than people realise. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the end is a bit nigher Posted December 31, 2005 Share Posted December 31, 2005 (edited) At present though, the official inflation rate is low and the government, who employ a large percentage of the working population will only give pay rises based upon the inflation statistic. Hence, you have a valid point about the 70s but I can't see it happening now. If / when there is a crash / slowdown, will the V.I. indices actually reflect it? From memory, their figures from the 90s seemed to indicate a mild slowdown whereas I remember a blitz. Fundamentally I think w have reached the stage where people are unwilling / unable to pay any more for what they will be getting e.g. personally, I would have to pay at least £100k for 1 extra bedroom and I won't even though I am probably better placed than most to do so. Heaven knows how someone on the average wage is meant to trade up. Edited December 31, 2005 by the end is nigh Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Levy process Posted December 31, 2005 Share Posted December 31, 2005 (edited) You're going to have to wait many years (and pay a lot more rent) before any kind of dip occurs I fear. ....or just wait while I pay off more of the mortgage on my first house. No rent paid here. Edited December 31, 2005 by Levy process Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flash Posted December 31, 2005 Share Posted December 31, 2005 (edited) 2006 will be the year that the debt time-bomb finally blows in the UK. £1.1 trillion in consumer debt. Around £185 billion is unsecured and one-third of that is in arrears (Edison Investment Research) History tells us that the unsecured debt is threatened first, as people prioritise on the mortgage. Lenders are tightening their lending criteria - Barclaycard is turning away more than 50% of applicants. New car sales plummeted in 2005. Big name Retailers were heavily discounting in sales BEFORE Christmas. Debt Management Companies (IVR providers) Debt Free Direct, Accuma and Debtmatters are currently trading their socks off. Even pawn broker Abermarle and Bond is having a bumper time. Estate Agent Countrywide (the UK's biggest) has closed 54 agencies in "the worst market for 30 years" Milton Keynes down 7% in 2005, Lincoln down 6%, Plymouth 4%.. The house price averages are ever so slightly up because some far flung towns in Scotland and Wales are still posting double digit rises. This tells me all I need to know. Edited December 31, 2005 by Flash Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Realistbear Posted December 31, 2005 Share Posted December 31, 2005 I suppose it depends on how you determine 'soft landing' The 'experts' on here and at Capital Economics were predicting the crash to be under way by now... it isn't under way (yet). Prices have wobbled for the last year. Some would say that is similar to a soft landing. I guess it depends what happens in 2006. If CE have got it right (do they ever get it right?) then I would class three years of stagnation or low falls, a 3 year soft landing. As I hinted in my first post, anyone waiting for a dip (by dip I mean trough) in prices is going to have to wait a LONG TIME and pay a LOT OF RENT. I don't see that as something to laugh about... Why don't they update the graph? Prices rose 5% in the 3rd quarter this year according to the LR figures. If the main web graph isn't updated, then that is DENIAL in my book. Prices in the West Midlands are already dropping by 10-15% from the peak and the correction has only just begun. I daresay similar dips are evident in other parts of the country its just not something the VIs are comfortable about publishing. Just like all those headlines in the Sunday Times reveals--denial continued into the third year of the correction. As I look in EA windows and see most of the properties with revised pricing and houses sticking on the market for over a year I realize the dip has only just begun. The pattern will probably follow the last four great crashes and take 7 years to hit rock bottom with the most violent drops occuring in the 2nd and 3rd years of the correction. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Without_a_Paddle Posted January 1, 2006 Share Posted January 1, 2006 Prices in the West Midlands are already dropping by 10-15% from the peak and the correction has only just begun. I daresay similar dips are evident in other parts of the country its just not something the VIs are comfortable about publishing. Just like all those headlines in the Sunday Times reveals--denial continued into the third year of the correction. As I look in EA windows and see most of the properties with revised pricing and houses sticking on the market for over a year I realize the dip has only just begun. The pattern will probably follow the last four great crashes and take 7 years to hit rock bottom with the most violent drops occuring in the 2nd and 3rd years of the correction. The latest LR figures for the East and West Midlands show a slight rise YOY. (And a big rise in the 3rd quarter of 2005) Can I ask where you are getting your data from? The next lot of LR data could be more revealing of a correction under way but I'm not holding out much hope of a large quarterly fall. Prices would have to fall 4% just to cancel out the last quarterly RISE! I agree with your pattern of the drops in prices but I think it may be slower to kick off. What if IRs are lowered again? Such 'bad' medicine will surely delay the correction. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Realistbear Posted January 1, 2006 Share Posted January 1, 2006 The latest LR figures for the East and West Midlands show a slight rise YOY. (And a big rise in the 3rd quarter of 2005) Can I ask where you are getting your data from? The next lot of LR data could be more revealing of a correction under way but I'm not holding out much hope of a large quarterly fall. Prices would have to fall 4% just to cancel out the last quarterly RISE! I agree with your pattern of the drops in prices but I think it may be slower to kick off. What if IRs are lowered again? Such 'bad' medicine will surely delay the correction. The ODPM figures showed that the West Country suffered the greatest falls followed by the West Midlands. I believe the drop was under 5% based on the houses actually sold. However, houses in my area-Evesham-Straford-upon-Avon (typical 3br semis in average locations) that were selling for 189k last year have been selling for around 150k recently. Flats have dropped by similar amounts which leads me to suspect that the correction for 2005 is around 10-15% based on 2004 figures. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
teddyboy Posted January 1, 2006 Share Posted January 1, 2006 WOP I partly agree with you. There will be a correction and when this happens - who knows. We could all argue that OIL, DEBT, INFLATION, REPOSSESSIONS, STRENGTH of £ etc are contributary factors to what will happen in the future but for me the common enemy is none of the above....... What is it you may ask?? KNOBHEADS!!!! Yes, the number of stupid people out there is still the vast majority. 1 26/08/2005 £183,000 Semi F/H Map 45, Gregory Way, Liverpool, Merseyside, L16 1JR 2 03/06/2005 £167,500 Semi L/H Map 44, Gregory Way, Liverpool, Merseyside, L16 1JS 3 10/09/2004 £140,000 Semi L/H Map 23, Gregory Way, Liverpool, Merseyside, L16 1JR 4 03/09/2004 £145,000 Semi L/H Map 41, Gregory Way, Liverpool, Merseyside, L16 1JR 5 26/08/2004 £110,000 Semi L/H Map 44, Gregory Way, Liverpool, Merseyside, L16 1JS 6 17/06/2004 £135,000 Semi L/H Map 56, Gregory Way, Liverpool, Merseyside, L16 1JS 7 16/04/2004 £148,950 Semi L/H Map 47, Gregory Way, Liverpool, Merseyside, L16 1JR 8 04/04/2004 £135,000 Semi F/H Map 12, Gregory Way, Liverpool, Merseyside, L16 1JS 9 16/01/2004 £129,950 Semi L/H Map 18, Gregory Way, Liverpool, Merseyside, L16 1JS Houses are now up for sale with asking prices from £120K to £160K. Just type L16 1JR into rightmove. So both of the KNOBHEADS who bought the last 2 houses have lost money already!!!! Whilst people pay whatever the EA wants we are fooked!!! I have seen houses that have a ceiling price of £120K THIS YEAR and the EA's are asking £165K for them. Some KNOBHEAD will offer £140K and think they have got a bargain, rather than do a search on a website for property prices. WE ARE ALL DOOMED. UP THE INTEREST RATES AND LET THESE KNOBHEADS LEARN THE HARD WAY! Calious ******* I know, but these are the enemy. Believe me. TB Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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