Jump to content
House Price Crash Forum
Sign in to follow this  

Hard Landing Scare Is On Again

Recommended Posts

The Baltic Dry Index is considered a very reliable leading indicator of global economic conditions. I won't go into the details (good explanation here), but read the following article from November 2004, then look at the current BDI chart just one year later: Baltic Dry Index Charts

I guess this means the hard landing scare is on again. :o


Hard landing scare over, the Baltic Dry index soars

November 30, 2004

Globe & Mail

The plunge earlier this year in the Baltic Dry Index had economists convinced that China's economy was in for a tumble, which would take the commodities market down with it.

The index, which measures the cost of shipping coal, iron ore, grains and other bulk goods globally on various routes, dropped more than 50 per cent in the first half of 2004 after a Nasdaq 1999-style rise of more than 400 per cent in 2003.

Last week, the index (see chart) poked through to a new high and all fingers are pointing again at Chinese demand as the driver. Some analysts figure a flurry of new orders are being shipped in anticipation of sharp price increases to come in 2005, but economist Stefane Marion of National Bank Financial figures there is another driver in a cheaper Chinese currency.

Chinese currency is seen as a problem for global trade because the country refuses to raise the value at which it's pegged to the U.S. dollar. Well, that's a problem for the United States, but the falling greenback has allowed China to actually increase its trade advantage with other countries, Mr. Marion says.

China hiked interest rates 27 basis points last month but the currency stimulus amounts to a rate cut of 120 points, kick-starting a new boom for exports, and a bigger appetite for raw materials, he calculates.

source: Hard landing scare over, the Baltic Dry index soars

Share this post

Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?

      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%

  • Create New...

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.