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ʎqɐqɹǝʞɐɥs

The £157,250 Average Uk House Price Question

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Okay I know its a totally rhetorical question but have you ever just thought why no VI's bother to logon to this site (non-trolls I mean) to declare themsleves and their interests to us all (after all they know all ours) then bother to OPENLY ARGUE THEIR CASE thus putting themsleves and their facts and figures up to scrutiny and debate. Of course we all know the answer and the anwser just reaffirms my belief and others in that the crash is underway. Remember silence is golden.

The crash is dead, long live the crash. B)B)B)B)

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i like good bull posters, but as long as they do something other than offer worn out angles and goad me with 'missed the boats' ect. at the moment its impossible to be a bull without your judgement being held in question.

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I have yet to see any evidence of a crash.

The outlook for 2006 is price rises with the exception of Capital Economics who are disgraced as the predicted falls of at least 7% in 2005.

I think we should face facts, prices in the UK rose 3% in 2005. Now if you were saving towards a house on a relatively modest wage you would most likely had gone backwards despite giving up much to get a deposit together. Many are saying that because they rose only 3% and not 25% then there is a recession on the way, I find that line rather amazing.

Common sense should tell anyone that prices cannot possibly outstrip wages year on year for eternity, there had to be a levelling period. In fact if prices didnt rise for 5 years I would not predict a recession.

Prices in 2006 are estimated to rise in the region of 5% by most of the proffessions that monitor house prices.

If you are a potential buyer and have the ability to buy now its going to be hard to stand back and predict a fall. I would guess that many STR'ers are now wondering if they did the right thing and have no idea when they might rejoin the market, indeed I think many will just give up and buy in again this year.

The Royal Institute of Chartered Surveyors were spot on with their predictions for 2005 and I have a reasonable amount of confidence in their status to go with their prediction of 5% rise in 2006. I'm afraid wishing for a crash is not enough, low interest rates with flexibility to lower even further, and a huge demand for what is a limited resource will serve to push them up again this coming year in most parts of the UK.

I have to say for myself I think it will be short lived, and for sure I reckon late 2007 will be the day of reckoning for many. I just dont think many people are minded to hold out for that length of time.

Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors, an industry body

Will prices rise or fall over the next twelve months? Rise.

By how much? By 4%. It expects steady growth during both 2006 and 2007.

2006 overview: RICS said it expected prices to rise on the back of an increasing number of sales. The number of properties being sold fell dramatically between late 2004 and the first half of 2005. RICS said this trend had now halted and that it thought mortgage approvals - a key indicator of housing market activity to rise from a five year low of 1.127m in 2005 to reach 1.336m in 2006.

What is its forecasting track record?Last year the surveyors' industry body called the market right, saying prices would rise by about 3%. RICS surveys its members to find what they think about the future direction of house prices. This can mean that it is early in flagging up moves in house prices.

The material is for general information only and does not constitute investment, tax, legal or other form of advice. You should not rely on this information to make (or refrain from making) any decisions. Always obtain independent, professional advice for your own particular situation.

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If you are a potential buyer and have the ability to buy now its going to be hard to stand back and predict a fall.

thats me, i can tell you its very easy to sit back and watch it fall over.

its getting exciting. i myself have seen falls in the NW from 140k to 110k this year.

i was bored last year, but it now seems its all coming together for one HUGE crash in property.

no need for a recession, but there are a lot of am-landlords about to get their greedy hands slapped.

im now refreshed and prepared to wait up to 3 years to watch them fall.

as for facts and figures. i suggest you check the post here with all the news paper lines from 1989-1994.

its exactly the same as last time. same lies. sameprops. same property now on the rise headlines. its all going to be so the same as last time.

only a fool would feel houses are at acceptable levels. they are double whats normal.

there are more big drops coming. however unsavoury. either that of 40% pay rises. and i cant see that.

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The biggest problem for the potential buyers is that they are faced with a dilema.

I think that the only thing that could knock house prices over is a sharp increase in interest rates and that is unlikely to be with us for a couple of years. Therefore money is cheap, very cheap, and for so long as that situation exists there are many people who are in a position to buy despite the high prices.

When the prices do drop the rates will be high so potential buyers will get cheaper housing but more expensive finance due to hikes in the base rate so they will not be in much of a better position than a current owner.

I think in reality the long game would have to be the one to play and that would mean putting a house purchase on the back burner for around seven years, for some people life is just too short to wait that long.

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I have yet to see any evidence of a crash.

The outlook for 2006 is price rises with the exception of Capital Economics who are disgraced as the predicted falls of at least 7% in 2005.

I think we should face facts, prices in the UK rose 3% in 2005. Now if you were saving towards a house on a relatively modest wage you would most likely had gone backwards despite giving up much to get a deposit together. Many are saying that because they rose only 3% and not 25% then there is a recession on the way, I find that line rather amazing.

Common sense should tell anyone that prices cannot possibly outstrip wages year on year for eternity, there had to be a levelling period. In fact if prices didnt rise for 5 years I would not predict a recession.

Prices in 2006 are estimated to rise in the region of 5% by most of the proffessions that monitor house prices.

If you are a potential buyer and have the ability to buy now its going to be hard to stand back and predict a fall. I would guess that many STR'ers are now wondering if they did the right thing and have no idea when they might rejoin the market, indeed I think many will just give up and buy in again this year.

The Royal Institute of Chartered Surveyors were spot on with their predictions for 2005 and I have a reasonable amount of confidence in their status to go with their prediction of 5% rise in 2006. I'm afraid wishing for a crash is not enough, low interest rates with flexibility to lower even further, and a huge demand for what is a limited resource will serve to push them up again this coming year in most parts of the UK.

I have to say for myself I think it will be short lived, and for sure I reckon late 2007 will be the day of reckoning for many. I just dont think many people are minded to hold out for that length of time.

Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors, an industry body

Will prices rise or fall over the next twelve months? Rise.

By how much? By 4%. It expects steady growth during both 2006 and 2007.

2006 overview: RICS said it expected prices to rise on the back of an increasing number of sales. The number of properties being sold fell dramatically between late 2004 and the first half of 2005. RICS said this trend had now halted and that it thought mortgage approvals - a key indicator of housing market activity to rise from a five year low of 1.127m in 2005 to reach 1.336m in 2006.

What is its forecasting track record?Last year the surveyors' industry body called the market right, saying prices would rise by about 3%. RICS surveys its members to find what they think about the future direction of house prices. This can mean that it is early in flagging up moves in house prices.

The material is for general information only and does not constitute investment, tax, legal or other form of advice. You should not rely on this information to make (or refrain from making) any decisions. Always obtain independent, professional advice for your own particular situation.

While your info is correct, I get the feeling that all the various commentators dumb down their statements for general consumption. Prices at the front end of the market, ie in the SE region, fell by up to 7% in Milton Keynes, I read last week on the front page of the FT. Scotland and NI, at the tail end of the ripple, are still rising. While its impossible to make predictions, it would suggest to me that the front end of the market has peaked and that this downturn should work its way through the rest of the market.

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Why is life too short to wait that long?

Since I sold my flat and began renting a house my perspective on life has changed totally. Who knows I may never buy again. Or wait until I am approaching retirement and buy then - outright in cash obviously.

The main thing for me now is enjoyment of life and capital preservation / accumulation.

Owning a house will only be worthwhile if it contributes to the above.

This means I am living in a place I would never be able to afford to buy, saving on mortgage / insurance / home repairs / etc and actively investing my capital.

In the past the decision to buy was emotional and meant that being an OO was a big thing to me, now it is purely financial.

Once the shock of no longer being an OO sinks in, you discover that there are many attractions to renting and investing as a lifestyle.

What about the curtains? - well we have put up our own, put pictures on the walls, and the landlord is even prepared to allow us to paint the place if we want to (in fact, he seems desperate for us to stay). That is enough DIY for me.

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Why is life too short to wait that long?

quite!

I've got a bit of a bee in my bonnet about HPI at the moment as it would (under notional 'normal' circumstances) probably be the time I would choose to FTB around about now.

Ah well, sheesh, I guess I'll just have to 'make sacrifices' and get on with my life regardless. What other choice do I have anyway?

And were I to unquestioningly accept the 'facts' put before me by the VIs, it remains the case that my cash savings have grown at a faster rate than house prices. So its proved to be a wise decision.

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The lying V.I's are mainly cowards, so its no suprise they are not around in the light, Vi's love the shadows.

The 'search for truth' that abounds on this forum would tear them to pieces. Seeing as how most modern business is based on lies, a lot of them believe their own spin IMO.

They are never to be underestimated though, iF Hpc representatives were on tv more being bearish, this forum would get a lot more flack.

Recent brainwasing of the masses, re: the housing market reminds me of the 70s film 'Videodrome' as the Tv appears to be the main tool used for the deception. Instead of being programmmed to kill, like James Woods in the film, people are programmed by VI lies (spin) and greed to buy a house, miatakenly thinking prices never fall.

Perhaps we could have a pinned part of the forum where V'i's are invited to hold there views up to the light of reason, why don't we write to them with an invite. It could be like the 'Ultimate fighting championship' where 2 players go into a virtual cage for an hour to exchange views & one cannot leave without submitting for that time.

How about calling it the V.I. Deodrome (sorry could not resist it) :D

Long live the new crash

Laurejon, I think its a bit much to ask for Hpi to drop from around 20% a year in places to near 0% in 18 months & then continue to drop below 0%. That enormous debt does not go away, & wears folks down in time like a massive weight, This will increasingly take its toll this year as more people wake up from their debt binge trance IMO.

Edited by Saving For a Space Ship

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Capital Economics who are disgraced

Bit like the Chancellor, then with his 3-3.5% growth prediction for last year, which turned out to be about 1.8%? First time he was wrong, right?

I would not predict a recession.

Also like the Chancellor, then.

I just dont think many people are minded to hold out for that length of time.

Spose it depends if they can afford the prices, which brings me on to...

I think that the only thing that could knock house prices over is a sharp increase in interest rates

I notice you didn't say what 'sharp' meant. I suppose 3.5% -> 4.5% is pretty sharpish, because that's a 28% increase. Although 10% -> 15% is sharper still at a 50% increase. Still, 28 is a fairly big slice of 50. It's my belief that the 3.5% trough rate was fully priced in, so that left the market high and dry come 4.5%. "Stagnation"? No surprise.

Dr Bubb has a thread on lender tightening, which explains why base rates aren't quite as interesting for the market as people believe. I believe it depends on defaults, or fear thereof.

and that is unlikely to be with us for a couple of years.

OK. Cool.

Therefore money is cheap, very cheap

It isn't because the low rate got priced in. See above.

I think we should face facts, prices in the UK rose 3% in 2005.

I didn't see that here, in fact I saw nominal falls, so that's what I care about.

Prices in 2006 are estimated to rise in the region of 5% by most of the proffessions that monitor house prices.

This includes my barber, right? ;)

I would guess that many STR'ers are now wondering if they did the right thing and have no idea when they might rejoin the market, indeed I think many will just give up and buy in again this year.

Some of the STRs will have more balls than you give credit for.

I have to say for myself I think it will be short lived, and for sure I reckon late 2007 will be the day of reckoning for many.

I think in reality the long game would have to be the one to play and that would mean putting a house purchase on the back burner for around seven years, for some people life is just too short to wait that long.

Sometimes I have difficulty knowing if you are a bull or a bear....

I'm not a bear:

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I would like to point out, probably for the twentieth time (but bulls don't seem to listen) that RICS is now under investigation by the Council of Mortgage Lenders for taking backhanders on new builds, grossly over-valueing new builds, having "self"regulation in place which is in fact no regulation at all, colluding with councils all over the UK in providing false market valuations for shared ownership schemes, and consistently ignoring the interests of clients by making inaccurate valuations on thousands of private dwellings.

This organisation has, in effect, a reputation which is in tatters.

R.I.C.S now stands for:

Royal Institute of Corrupt Surveyors

or if you prefer, in the context of Laurejon's predictable use of RICS as a "reliable" source of statistics:

Ridiculous Institute of Crazy Spinners

VP

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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