Milkshock Posted January 19, 2006 Share Posted January 19, 2006 (edited) -------- Edited January 19, 2006 by Milkshock Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
erd Posted January 19, 2006 Share Posted January 19, 2006 Ok now we know you have no idea what you are talking about. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Van Posted January 19, 2006 Author Share Posted January 19, 2006 Milkshock, I agree valuations on certain markets are overblown - basically the FTSE 100 is the cheapest (x14) compared to FTSE 250 (x20), FTSC (x25ish), AIM (x40ish??). However, since the FTSE-100 is 90% of the UK stock market anyway, these other indices are small fry by comparison. I'm sure Mr Large would love to be able to buy the FTSE on 10 times earnings, but it ain't gonna happen. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
penbat1 Posted January 19, 2006 Share Posted January 19, 2006 Milkshock, I agree valuations on certain markets are overblown - basically the FTSE 100 is the cheapest (x14) compared to FTSE 250 (x20), FTSC (x25ish), AIM (x40ish??). However, since the FTSE-100 is 90% of the UK stock market anyway, these other indices are small fry by comparison. I'm sure Mr Large would love to be able to buy the FTSE on 10 times earnings, but it ain't gonna happen. In terms of capitalisation yes the FTSE100 is about 90% of the market but just a tiny proportion by number of companies. Anyway the FTSE100 could only manage a puny pathetic 0.52% rise today while the FTSE250 managed a massive huge 1.23% rise !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Van Posted January 20, 2006 Author Share Posted January 20, 2006 Blood being spilt on the markets tonight! SPX down 17pts to 1266 DJIA down 138pts to 10730 Nasdaq 100 down 38pts to 1700 Covered my Dow shorts for some profit and went short on Crude oil. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
penbat1 Posted January 20, 2006 Share Posted January 20, 2006 Blood being spilt on the markets tonight! SPX down 17pts to 1266 DJIA down 138pts to 10730 Nasdaq 100 down 38pts to 1700 Covered my Dow shorts for some profit and went short on Crude oil. The DOW was down about 115 when the UK market closed with the FTSE100 down in sympathy with the Dow although only by -0.37% but the FTSE250 actuallly stayed up with a respectable 0.15% rise !!!!!! Restistance is futile Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
defweb Posted January 23, 2006 Share Posted January 23, 2006 no comment from penbat about the ftse 250 today? ftse 100 down 0.2% vs 250 down 0.62% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
penbat1 Posted January 23, 2006 Share Posted January 23, 2006 (edited) no comment from penbat about the ftse 250 today? ftse 100 down 0.2% vs 250 down 0.62% OK OK the FTSE250 came off worse today!!! However the FTSE250 has been outperforming the FTSE100 by a big margin for years now. I am pretty amazed that this trend is still happening. The trend could of course stop at any time. In the past year or so the FTSE250 has had occasional bad days relative to the FTSE100 but good days have been outnumbering them by about 5 to 1. Edited January 23, 2006 by penbat1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Milkshock Posted January 23, 2006 Share Posted January 23, 2006 no comment from penbat about the ftse 250 today? ftse 100 down 0.2% vs 250 down 0.62% i noticed this thread has gone quiet all of a sudden LMAO DAY-TRADERS!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Van Posted January 23, 2006 Author Share Posted January 23, 2006 (edited) i noticed this thread has gone quiet all of a sudden LMAO DAY-TRADERS!!! Did you also also notice that the FTSE finished the day 12pts down? Hardly the sort of meltdown you must have been hoping for after a the biggest fall on Wall St for 3 years, was it? Markets go up and down. It's taking a breather while technical indicators pull back from the red zone. There's nothing really to report at the moment. Anything above 5350 will keep the uptrend fimly intact. So, sorry if you were expecting meltdown - hasn't really worked out that way. Oh yeah, latest news is that FTSE trades on less than 13 times earnings, so stick that in your pipe and smoke it. Why, out of curiosity, are you so against an equities bull-market? At least a strong market is usually good for the economy. And, unlike homes, it is not like everyone has been priced out of buying shares. Just a sourpuss who can't stand the sight of other people getting richer, perhaps? Edited January 23, 2006 by Van Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Milkshock Posted January 23, 2006 Share Posted January 23, 2006 Personally, I am bullish, and think that a 10-15% rise is within reason, based on fundamentals. That would take the FTSE somewhere between 6181 - 6462. Sorry, until this position is held for any length of time you have nothing to crow about. and thats not going happen for a long while yet. Elsewhere you claim 6,000 would be a poor return. I think you're stuggling and I think you should be man enough to admit it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
penbat1 Posted January 23, 2006 Share Posted January 23, 2006 Did you also also notice that the FTSE finished the day 12pts down? Hardly the sort of meltdown you must have been hoping for after a the biggest fall on Wall St for 3 years, was it? Yes the FTSE was pretty robust but you are oversimplifying it. The Dow was down about 115 when UK trading finished at the end of Friday. Also the Dow rebounded about 30 points today. So the FTSE today only had to respond to a Dow loss of about 70 points which would translate to about a 35 point loss today on the FTSE100 on percentage basis. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Van Posted January 23, 2006 Author Share Posted January 23, 2006 Sorry, until this position is held for any length of time you have nothing to crow about. and thats not going happen for a long while yet. Elsewhere you claim 6,000 would be a poor return. I think you're stuggling and I think you should be man enough to admit it. Fine. We'll see where we are come December. I said 6,000 would be a poor return (being about about 6% away), and I stand by that, if that's all that the market does this year. What's YOUR forecast, Milkshock, and are you prepared to back it with your own money (long OR short), or are you simply a wind up merchant who likes harassing those of us who are actually bold enough to take a bit of risk? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Milkshock Posted January 23, 2006 Share Posted January 23, 2006 Fine. We'll see where we are come December. I said 6,000 would be a poor return (being about about 6% away), and I stand by that, if that's all that the market does this year. What's YOUR forecast, Milkshock, and are you prepared to back it with your own money (long OR short), or are you simply a wind up merchant who likes harassing those of us who are actually bold enough to take a bit of risk? go and stick it on the horses you muppet, you have about as much chance of making money there as you will in seeing significant returns on the ftse. ftse to be 6,000 max year end. and thats a year of your cash tied up. oh, and im not interested in investing in broadly flat markets, thanks all the same . Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Van Posted January 23, 2006 Author Share Posted January 23, 2006 (edited) go and stick it on the horses you muppet, you have about as much chance of making money there as you will in seeing significant returns on the ftse. ftse to be 6,000 max year end. and thats a year of your cash tied up. oh, and im not interested in investing in broadly flat markets, thanks all the same . So, even you are forecasting it will RISE. Add in a nice dividend, and that's a 10% return. Of course, Milkshock, you don't get out of bed for less tha 30%pa, do you? So stay in ING earning 4.5%, I implore you - at least that way when the FTSE hits 7,000, 8,000, and 9,000 further down the line, there'll be a few mugs left to pull their savings out and stick on the market AFTER the big rises have taken place, while the clever money was buying all the way up while equities were still cheap. Personally I like to see my money working for me rather than the other way around. Edited January 23, 2006 by Van Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Milkshock Posted January 23, 2006 Share Posted January 23, 2006 So, even you are forecasting it will RISE. Add in a nice dividend, and that's a 10% return. Of course, Milkshock, you don't get out of bed for less tha 30%pa, do you? So stay in ING earning 4.5%, I implore you - at least that way when the FTSE hits 7,000, 8,000, and 9,000 further down the line, there'll be a few mugs left to pull their savings out and stick on the market AFTER the big rises have taken place, while the clever money was buying all the way up while equities were still cheap. Personally I like to see my money working for me rather than the other way around. so 6,000 is a good return now is it? the truth is, you cant make up your mind and keep shifting the goalposts. 6,000 is a poor return, you have admitted it. i think 5,900 is possible, 6,000 top end. dont now try to make out that 6,000 is some kind of victory if it reaches that point. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Van Posted January 23, 2006 Author Share Posted January 23, 2006 (edited) so 6,000 is a good return now is it? the truth is, you cant make up your mind and keep shifting the goalposts. 6,000 is a poor return, you have admitted it. i think 5,900 is possible, 6,000 top end. dont now try to make out that 6,000 is some kind of victory if it reaches that point. You're a tw*t, milkshock. Far from shifting any goalposts, did I, or did I not, reaffirm two postings ago that I stand by my forecasts? Whether or not 6,000 is a good return or not is subjective. I would not call a FTSE@ 6,000+dividend a return fantastic, but at least it IS a return - twice what you get in a bank account. I said before and I say again (and again, in case you weren't listening the 2nd time), that I thought 6181 - 6462 was possible based on fundamentals (y'know the important things.. like earnings), so it doesn't take a genius to figure out that I would regard 6,000 as mild underperformance. Is it acceptable? yeah, it's acceptable. Like I said, still more than twice what the bank will pay you. The fact is that you have nothing worthwhile to contribute to this thread, so I will be severely curtailing my banter and saving it for when there's something worthwhile to be said. Edited January 23, 2006 by Van Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
penbat1 Posted January 23, 2006 Share Posted January 23, 2006 You're a tw*t, milkshock. Far from shifting any goalposts, did I, or did I not, reaffirm two postings ago that I stand by my forecasts? Whether or not 6,000 is a good return or not is subjective. I would not call a FTSE@ 6,000+dividend a return fantastic, but at least it IS a return - twice what you get in a bank account. I said before and I say again (and again, in case you weren't listening the 2nd time), that I thought 6181 - 6462 was possible based on fundamentals (y'know the important things.. like earnings), so it doesn't take a genius to figure out that I would regard 6,000 as mild underperformance. Is it acceptable? yeah, it's acceptable. Like I said, still more than twice what the bank will pay you. The fact is that you have nothing worthwhile to contribute to this thread, so I will be severely curtailing my banter and saving it for when there's something worthwhile to be said. Cant you two guys let it rest. Its funny you Van find plenty of time to respond to all of Milkshake's posts and always ignore mine. At least I dont trade insults but put forward opinions based on fact. Van you forget the horrors of the dotcom crash when people were sure of a big rise in the FTSE100 and it all went horibbly wrong and it still hasnt anywhere near recovered 6 years later. Unless you are a genius on the futures market the best way to invest is ultra longterm (10 years plus) and it is essential that you have a big cash buffer to avoid having to fall back on your stock market investments in the meantime. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Milkshock Posted January 24, 2006 Share Posted January 24, 2006 [quote Actually I would be disappointed if it "only" reached 6,000, as that is only 4.8% away. I'd consider that a very poor return for my investment. yeah, very poor return on my investment = mild underperformance - get a grip you stupid man! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
penbat1 Posted January 24, 2006 Share Posted January 24, 2006 (edited) The FTSE250 is currently 0.32% up, the FTSE100 is currently -0.28% down. Its been the same pattern all day and most days. You guys are all in denial about the FTSE250 - the signs are the trend will continue for now. Edited January 24, 2006 by penbat1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oracle Posted January 24, 2006 Share Posted January 24, 2006 I still reckon the FTSE will end up down this year...5300 my estimate. ...this bull market has been going on for 3 years now....3.5 for the dow. even history would suggest a 6-12mth correction is on the cards. the housing bubble isn't even the reason why...because that should support the market as prop money flows in!! ....geopolitical risk,overoptimistic forecasts,re-surfacing of trade defecit concerns and asia outperformance(capital flow eastwards),are what are likely to drive the market down. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
penbat1 Posted January 24, 2006 Share Posted January 24, 2006 I still reckon the FTSE will end up down this year...5300 my estimate. ...this bull market has been going on for 3 years now....3.5 for the dow. even history would suggest a 6-12mth correction is on the cards. the housing bubble isn't even the reason why...because that should support the market as prop money flows in!! ....geopolitical risk,overoptimistic forecasts,re-surfacing of trade defecit concerns and asia outperformance(capital flow eastwards),are what are likely to drive the market down. Yes lower FTSE100 and higher FTSE250. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Milkshock Posted January 25, 2006 Share Posted January 25, 2006 I still reckon the FTSE will end up down this year...5300 my estimate. ...this bull market has been going on for 3 years now....3.5 for the dow. even history would suggest a 6-12mth correction is on the cards. the housing bubble isn't even the reason why...because that should support the market as prop money flows in!! ....geopolitical risk,overoptimistic forecasts,re-surfacing of trade defecit concerns and asia outperformance(capital flow eastwards),are what are likely to drive the market down. at last someone prepared to talk sense here! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
penbat1 Posted January 25, 2006 Share Posted January 25, 2006 at last someone prepared to talk sense here! The FTSE may be up or down at the end of year. It is far from certain. We could theoretically have another 9/11 for example to sink the markets. The only safe thing to do is take a very long term view and invest for the long term. Investing on the stock market for just one year is not enough. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
penbat1 Posted January 25, 2006 Share Posted January 25, 2006 FTSE 100 up 0.65% so far today FTSE 250 up 1.02% so far today Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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