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Pablo-silver or lead?

Whose Gona Blink First?

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The harder the Bull runs the harder it falls.

The bull market in property ended 18 months ago. Earlier in the south a bit later in the north. The bulls around you at social events and dinner parties, saying house prices don’t go down, house prices haven’t gone down and even if they do, ‘we’ wont be effected because ‘our’ house is special! are deluding themselves and each other. Sentiment in any market is the key. After years of stats showing rising annualised prices the tide has turned dramatically, + 20% to 0 in 18 months, that’s a cliff (especially when its happened against a backdrop of a reasonable economic and low interest rate environment). House prices never stagnate or level off they go up or down. When the stats start to show a – negative figure for several months as they will shortly and the press (and they will) get hold of a few “he bought the flat for 400k in Nov 04 and sold it 7 months later for £310k as based on the LR figures”, bulls will be going down like steers at a rodeo.

Even if interest rates go down .25% next year and there is a spring ‘dead cat bounce’ it won’t change the outcome. There are too many people sitting on huge mortgages on their main homes either because they’ve FTB’d in the last 2 to 3 years or traded up. Many have leveraged there homes to BTL or even crazier BTL abroad. They have also released equity to keep up with the Jones on the Florida holiday and 4x4 BMW road to self fulfilment. Equity in property, especially frothy equity at the end of a bull run is ephemeral. Markets are built on sentiment and when it changes they can go down just as quick as they go up. The humane cost will be great.

Pablo Silver or Lead!

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whos going to blink first ? - why the man sat on the ants nest of debt.

whatever happens he HAS to begin to pay that back at some point. he might mew and consolidate a while, but eventually he has to pass the debt on to an ftb and get out of the market. or he has to pay his own loans back.

if he bought for £35k in 1997 and now thinks it worth £140k because he got £XX,ss of loans on it to that level. well as long as you realise by buying his house hes free from the debt and you take it on.

keep your heads down and the banks wont wait on him forever. so if were on a stand - he has to eventually blink. renters do not. this year this is going to happen and bankruptcies will skyrocket so badly they will end up having to change the laws about it.

06 is the year.

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From todays Telegraph, see you at the bottom.

By Paul Farrow (Filed: 21/12/2005)

This is clearly a new meaning of the word "today" of which I wasn't previously aware.

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This is clearly a new meaning of the word "today" of which I wasn't previously aware.

Yep, nine days is a long time in the property market. :rolleyes:

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i saw it. the crash had been 'cancelled' just like that.

there was even a rolling banner on bbc news 24 that confirmed ....house price rise.....house prices rise...

funny how we all worried about massive debt repayment and affordabilty, when whump !! a puff os smoke and all that debt and worry has now gone. yes ftbs. its fully 100% safe to proceed. this was the crash that never happened. phew !!

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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