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Clueless_Academic

Kuwait Oil Field, World's Second Largest, 'exhausted'

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A factor for eventual HPC before 2010 ??

Nov. 10 (Bloomberg) -- Kuwaiti oil production from the world's second-largest field is ``exhausted'' and falling after almost six decades of pumping, forcing the government to increase spending on new deposits, the chairman of the state oil company said.

http://www.energybulletin.net/10878.html

And for Saudi Arabia -

Western refineries spurning sulphurous Saudi oil

http://www.energybulletin.net/8949.html

Is the world's oil running out fast?

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/3777413.stm

Goldman's Murti Says `Peak Oil' Makes $105 Price Tame

http://www.energybulletin.net/11786.html

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Guest wrongmove

That's rather old news. Here is a story from yesterday:

IEA predicts lower oil prices next year

"Opec, the oil producers' cartel, is poised to cut its production this weekend, as the world's leading energy think-tank said prices were set to fall back to $50 a barrel.....

Iran said the 11-nation group should cut its output quotas by a million barrels a day to prevent a slump in prices. Kazem Vaziri-Hamaneh, its oil minister, told an Iranian newspaper that a reduction to 29 million barrels a day would be a "good figure with respect to market fundamentals".

"Currently crude supply exceeds demand. If the current situation persists, it is likely to cause a price slump," he told Sharq newspaper....."

Of course oil will run out eventually, but I wouldn't rely on it happening quickly enough to cause a HPC.

Edited by wrongmove

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That's rather old news. Here is a story from yesterday:

IEA predicts lower oil prices next year

"Opec, the oil producers' cartel, is poised to cut its production this weekend, as the world's leading energy think-tank said prices were set to fall back to $50 a barrel.....

Iran said the 11-nation group should cut its output quotas by a million barrels a day to prevent a slump in prices. Kazem Vaziri-Hamaneh, its oil minister, told an Iranian newspaper that a reduction to 29 million barrels a day would be a "good figure with respect to market fundamentals".

"Currently crude supply exceeds demand. If the current situation persists, it is likely to cause a price slump," he told Sharq newspaper....."

Of course oil will run out eventually, but I wouldn't rely on it happening quickly enough to cause a HPC.

Well... Yes, sort of...

Demand clearly drops post winter, at least until the summer driving season in the US. Plus, for 2006 there is a lot of non-Opec crude coming onto the market. The BTC pipeline alone will supply 1 million barrels a day (just over 1% of global demand), although not all of this oil is entirely new to market. Plus there are a number of other major developments that are approaching first-oil, or rapidly increasing production... West Africa is ramping up significantly. So there is certainly a upswing in Non-OPEC supply.

However, the upside pressures remain. China's economy is yet to slow down significantly, and it's largely unknown what the OPEC group is actually capable of producing. Certainly some of their ministers can't find their **** with both hands. Kuwait and Mexico may be over the hump, which obviously begins to draw down supply, but to be honest it doesn't really matter too much in the short term until Saudi goes over too. Saudi is just that HUGE (Ghawar alone is >5% global supply). It remains to be seen how continued increasing demand will balance with these supply factors. No one knows. Care for a spread bet? I think IG Index is offering a bid price in the mid $40s for Sept 06.

For most, next year is very much a wait-and-see game. I should imagine that $40-60 a barrel levels are here to stay. But for 2006 i'd lean to the lower end, in the absence of strife or some unusual event, which is clearly a real possibility. In fact, if the insurgents/terrorists/fanatics were actually any good they'd be planning a large attack on a saudi facility. Personally I don't think they're that organised, but some of that fear must be translated into the oil future prices. Who knows. Revolution in Saudi?

However, in the long run this is just noise. Gonna be much more interesting over the next 20 years. Non OPEC supply has a shelf life of not much more than a decade at current rates of discovery. Not good. After that we're reliant on the ever-reliable Putin, and OPEC. Great...

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What about the falklands? Any news of discoveries there?

I think Desire Petroleum have positive geological surveys for that area and are awaiting a rig to start drilling (according to a m8 of mine)

Regards,

crude

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Don't forget that individual OPEC members are either over or under quota in terms of production and the group as a whole is running slightly over so what they do with the quota doesn't necessarily mean that production will actually change. Their history is one of only loose compliance with their own quotas so they could cut the quota and not change production at all as long as the quota cut is only modest.

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I think Desire Petroleum have positive geological surveys for that area and are awaiting a rig to start drilling (according to a m8 of mine)

Regards,

crude

Hmmmn.. The Falklands is extremely small cheese when it comes to global reserves and production. We need to be finding multiple North Sea scale provinces (i.e. more towards 100bn bbls) if we're to make a difference.

However, if you want a high-risk, high reward type gamble then the falklands might be worth a punt for your hard earned... Although, word-on-the-street has it that the falklands spiel is a bit weak, technically. At least so far. But until you put a hole in the ground who knows?.

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Hmmmn.. The Falklands is extremely small cheese when it comes to global reserves and production. We need to be finding multiple North Sea scale provinces (i.e. more towards 100bn bbls) if we're to make a difference.

However, if you want a high-risk, high reward type gamble then the falklands might be worth a punt for your hard earned... Although, word-on-the-street has it that the falklands spiel is a bit weak, technically. At least so far. But until you put a hole in the ground who knows?.

I heard they had 60billion barrels down there, but that information probably came from some get-rich-quick website.

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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