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Guest Daddy Bear

What Could Constitute 'the Perfect Economic Storm'?

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Guest Daddy Bear

I wanted to make a list of all the potential perils and downfalls that could occur in a perfect economic storm.

I don't believe in astrology bull and such like but I do remember reading a prediction of a catastrophic economic downturn in 2007 - "The perfect storm" a few years ago. Has anyone else heard of this phrase being used before or read any articles relating to this?

My list so far:

1. ********** - people have been predicting this for 5 years now - will it ever happen?

2. SARs - is this inevitable? - what effect would it have on the economy and house prices!

3. High Oil Price - Chinese demand - will it abate - will this effect House Prices?

4. Terrorist Attack on western economic targets. If you were a terrorist and wanted to cause havoc to the western capitalist system what would be simpler then targetting and assasinating the board members and CEO's of the top Ftse 100 companies?

What other problems could we face in the near future?

I look forward to hearing your thoughts.

DB

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Environmental disruption

a couple more cat 4/5 hurricanes through the Gulf of mexico would help.

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I wanted to make a list of all the potential perils and downfalls that could occur in a perfect economic storm.

I don't believe in astrology bull and such like but I do remember reading a prediction of a catastrophic economic downturn in 2007 - "The perfect storm" a few years ago. Has anyone else heard of this phrase being used before or read any articles relating to this?

My list so far:

1. ********** - people have been predicting this for 5 years now - will it ever happen?

2. SARs - is this inevitable? - what effect would it have on the economy and house prices!

3. High Oil Price - Chinese demand - will it abate - will this effect House Prices?

4. Terrorist Attack on western economic targets. If you were a terrorist and wanted to cause havoc to the western capitalist system what would be simpler then targetting and assasinating the board members and CEO's of the top Ftse 100 companies?

What other problems could we face in the near future?

I look forward to hearing your thoughts.

DB

1 will eventually happen - be it a slow steady fall over many years or more likely a sharp hard landing. 2 would have to be a pretty devastating outbreak along the lines of 1918 to be significant. 3 is already here, and is with us to stay - and it's a good thing, encouraging energy efficiency, finally. 4 is just not going to happen.

Other major events that are possible are major US bankruptcies (GM in particular), Chinese refusal to buy US treasuries, repegging of yuan to a basket of currencies, a major oil producer denominating oil in currencies other than the dollar, US attack on Iran of any form (not likely to happen), Kurdistan declaring independence taking oil facilities in the north of Iraq and drawing Turkey, Iran and the US into a major conflict. Impeachment of GWB for spying on US citizens (that would boost the global markets, I think!)

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I wanted to make a list of all the potential perils and downfalls that could occur in a perfect economic storm.

I don't believe in astrology bull and such like but I do remember reading a prediction of a catastrophic economic downturn in 2007 - "The perfect storm" a few years ago. Has anyone else heard of this phrase being used before or read any articles relating to this?

My list so far:

1. ********** - people have been predicting this for 5 years now - will it ever happen?

2. SARs - is this inevitable? - what effect would it have on the economy and house prices!

3. High Oil Price - Chinese demand - will it abate - will this effect House Prices?

4. Terrorist Attack on western economic targets. If you were a terrorist and wanted to cause havoc to the western capitalist system what would be simpler then targetting and assasinating the board members and CEO's of the top Ftse 100 companies?

What other problems could we face in the near future?

I look forward to hearing your thoughts.

DB

ok daddy,I will level with you.

I am convinced you are actually very close to what might happen....but your reasons are a little different.

HPC WILL happen.....primarily due to the war with Iran.

military action(pretty much foregone conclusion as russia/china will veto sanctions) will begin in late march '06

...this will have the effect of REALLY cranking up the oil price(3m bbl/day supply outage)

......plus really bad effect on consumer sentiment.

......plus this could easily spread to militants in syria/jordan/saudi/pakistan

......now this is going to sound wacky,but nostradamus and the torah BOTH prophecy this.

I stumbled across the nostradamus bombing new york bit just after 9/11 and there are things in there which are just TOO close for comfort.....BELIEVE ME,THIS IS NOT A HOAX.

this war is going to be very nasty.not many people have it on the radar either,so just make sure you prepare.

......same goes with food,if the oil supply is majorly disrupted then tesco's will not be stocking your favourite jordanian olives....so I might recommend buying a few seeds from wyevales and starting your own allotment.

THIS IS NOT DOOM-MONGERING OR ********,THE MEDIA JUST HAVENT TOLD YOU JUST HOW SERIOUS THIS IS TO KEEP YOU CALM.

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this war is going to be very nasty.not many people have it on the radar either,so just make sure you prepare.

......same goes with food,if the oil supply is majorly disrupted then tesco's will not be stocking your favourite jordanian olives....so I might recommend buying a few seeds from wyevales and starting your own allotment.

THIS IS NOT DOOM-MONGERING OR ********,THE MEDIA JUST HAVENT TOLD YOU JUST HOW SERIOUS THIS IS TO KEEP YOU CALM.

So I take it you have good intelligence from a secret source. Go on blow the whistle. ;)

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Guest Daddy Bear

this war is going to be very nasty.not many people have it on the radar either,so just make sure you prepare.

......same goes with food,if the oil supply is majorly disrupted then tesco's will not be stocking your favourite jordanian olives....so I might recommend buying a few seeds from wyevales and starting your own allotment.

THIS IS NOT DOOM-MONGERING OR ********,THE MEDIA JUST HAVENT TOLD YOU JUST HOW SERIOUS THIS IS TO KEEP YOU CALM.

Astrological, nostrdamus, biblical prophysising bullsh1t........... why discredit a prediction based on scientific fact, economic and political theory and terrorist tactics with your inane mumblings....go back to the nuthouse.

or alternatively base your rantings on fact, otherwise 99% of people switch off.

DB

:lol::lol::lol::lol::lol:

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Astrological, nostrdamus, biblical prophysising bullsh1t........... why discredit a prediction based on scientific fact, economic and political theory and terrorist tactics with your inane mumblings....go back to the nuthouse.

or alternatively base your rantings on fact, otherwise 99% of people switch off.

DB

:lol::lol::lol::lol::lol:

wait and see guys!!!.

....or better still get a copy of it and learn for yourselves.

you might think I'm a crank,but astrology has been used for 1000's of years and it's not something to be ignored.....I know it sounds mad,but seeing as economics work in cycles,and planets revolve around the sun in cycles why should there NOT be a link??

....come back to me in april and we'll discuss this further.

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Guest Daddy Bear

wait and see guys!!!.

....or better still get a copy of it and learn for yourselves.

you might think I'm a crank,but astrology has been used for 1000's of years and it's not something to be ignored.....I know it sounds mad,but seeing as economics work in cycles,and planets revolve around the sun in cycles why should there NOT be a link??

....come back to me in april and we'll discuss this further.

Oracle

There is a very high probability that it will all go tits up next year;

1. terrorism

2. pandemic

3. natural disaster

4. bursting of biggest ever debt/asset bubble in history - **********

5. US/Middle east conflict

6. Hedge fund collapse

7. AND the most likely - something no one has even considered

One does not have to be a soothsayer, astrologist or russel bloody grant to say it does not look good!!!

However using mumbo jumbo just discredits rational arguements saying it will happen.

If predictions were true then in this day and age of the internet surely there would be proof that 9/11 was predicted or the tsunami. How come people always pull out stuff just after an event has happened!!

Where in the torah or nostradamus does it say HPC 2006/7 or economic disaster get real.

However Daddy Bear is saying it and he has'nt seen it in his bloody tea leaves or porridge for that matter!!

Prove it!!

DB

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Oracle

There is a very high probability that it will all go tits up next year;

1. terrorism

2. pandemic

3. natural disaster

4. bursting of biggest ever debt/asset bubble in history - **********

5. US/Middle east conflict

6. Hedge fund collapse

7. AND the most likely - something no one has even considered

One does not have to be a soothsayer, astrologist or russel bloody grant to say it does not look good!!!

However using mumbo jumbo just discredits rational arguements saying it will happen.

If predictions were true then in this day and age of the internet surely there would be proof that 9/11 was predicted or the tsunami. How come people always pull out stuff just after an event has happened!!

Where in the torah or nostradamus does it say HPC 2006/7 or economic disaster get real.

However Daddy Bear is saying it and he has'nt seen it in his bloody tea leaves or porridge for that matter!!

Prove it!!

DB

if you would like to take some time out and read them,you might feel a little different.

prophecies of nostradamus 1997:bombing of new york-precursor to third war.

...which ensues shortly after the inaugaration of the new pope(have we not just had one?)

revelations:earthquakes in diverse places precede the rise of the beast.

torah:2006 bringing of fire.

....please read,I know the timescales maybe a tad out but considering these books were written a minimum

of 400 years ago,the timing ain't that bloody far out.

as I said,astrology has been around for 100's of years and it's a lost art......we aren't talking septic peg here we are talking deep science.

Edited by oracle

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Oracle

There is a very high probability that it will all go tits up next year;

1. terrorism

2. pandemic

3. natural disaster

4. bursting of biggest ever debt/asset bubble in history - **********

5. US/Middle east conflict

6. Hedge fund collapse

7. AND the most likely - something no one has even considered

One does not have to be a soothsayer, astrologist or russel bloody grant to say it does not look good!!!

However using mumbo jumbo just discredits rational arguements saying it will happen.

If predictions were true then in this day and age of the internet surely there would be proof that 9/11 was predicted or the tsunami. How come people always pull out stuff just after an event has happened!!

Where in the torah or nostradamus does it say HPC 2006/7 or economic disaster get real.

However Daddy Bear is saying it and he has'nt seen it in his bloody tea leaves or porridge for that matter!!

Prove it!!

DB

I believe that last time it was at the end of August 1988 (I think) when the government abolished the double miras relief which you could get if you bought as an unmarried couple.

I remember solicitors were working all night to get things completed in time.

After that the market just went dead for ages, everyone who wanted to buy at those prices had done so. Estate agents were empty. It was only after things had gone dead for a while that interest rates/unemployment caused the prices to actually go down.

It took a while to work through but I think that was the trigger. It wasnt worth a lot of money but I think it triggered a change from Fear of being left behind to Fear that prices were too high.

The other thing worth remembering is that it was the crap "starter homes", )built on a pretty specualative basis and bought in fear of not having a first rung on the property ladder) that were hit hardest - as prices fell buyers decided to skip that rung of the ladder and FTB's went straight to proper houses.

Maybe there is an analogy with the about face over SIPPS? But of course there is no guarantee that history will repeat itself.

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Guest Daddy Bear

if you would like to take some time out and read them,you might feel a little different.

prophecies of nostradamus 1997:bombing of new york-precursor to third war.

...which ensues shortly after the inaugaration of the new pope(have we not just had one?)

revelations:earthquakes in diverse places precede the rise of the beast.

torah:2006 bringing of fire.

....please read,I know the timescales maybe a tad out but considering these books were written a minimum

of 400 years ago,the timing ain't that bloody far out.

as I said,astrology has been around for 100's of years and it's a lost art......we aren't talking septic peg here we are talking deep science.

People infer what they want to from his quatrains. They are so unspecific they can mean anything.

E.g. what term was used for the pope, other people will say it means king, term for new york is what? other people infer the same word to mean israel. It does not say it in black and white.

Derren Brown does the same stuff - he lets your mind fill in the balnks.

Point me in the direction of a good website that backs up your arguement and I'll take a look.

I remember when mikhail Gorbachev was meant to be the beast as he had the mark of cain - yeah right, before him it was Histler = hitler yeah right! now who is meant to be the antichrist? George Bush? Saddam/ David bloody Cameron?

'A rain of fire in the ninth month' of 1999 not exactly 2001 is it. ....saying that he was out about 2 years for the new pope as well (maybe all his dates are out about 2 years....hmmmm...maybe you are on to something!)

I still think its a con. Give me something i can get my teeth into.

Admittedly i do not know much about the Torah and would be interested in doing my own research - please point me in the right direction.

Even though i think its baloney it still fascinates me and I retain an open mind to any of your arguements.

regards

DB

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the really scary thing is some of it could easily be baloney.....BUT.

there might be people in high places willing to engineer some of these situations to gain more influence.

prophecy or engineering,neither is impossible but if it is the latter then at least I have an idea of what's coming next and invest accordingly.

on balance there is an argument for both,but how tsunami triggering earthquakes etc are engineered I don't really know.......can't exactly nuke a faultline without leaving evidence can you?

truth is stranger than fiction......if you had known there were military guys who stare at goats to try and kill them you would think it weird but it happens!!!

Edited by oracle

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Try this:

1. BTL scandal develops in the new year as knowledge of sharp practice becomes widespread.

2. BTL scandal causes BTLers to realise that they aren't going to make the gains expected, begin to sell up as a result.

3. Market goes YOY negative prompting more BTLers to sell up fueling crash.

4. Crash cruise speed of >1% PM develops with panic sales by BTLers, FTBs staying out totally and many OOs STRing.

5. Property crash has knock on effect on consumption, resulting in recession.

6. Tax revenues depressed as a result of recession. GB loses control of public finances and is forced to raise taxes.

7. Tax rises further depress the economy.

8. External shock hits the economy (oil, bird flu etc), downturn becomes major recession.

9. Global recession develops at same time as result of similar house price bubble in US & even worse public finanaces.

10. Depression lasting 10-15 years develops as households struggle to pay off negative equity and other debts.

11. China decides to flex muscles in Asia anexing Taiwan & embarks on massive armaments programme, resuting in:

12. World War III

Not very likely but you can see how one thing can lead to another.

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Try this:

1. BTL scandal develops in the new year as knowledge of sharp practice becomes widespread.

2. BTL scandal causes BTLers to realise that they aren't going to make the gains expected, begin to sell up as a result.

3. Market goes YOY negative prompting more BTLers to sell up fueling crash.

4. Crash cruise speed of >1% PM develops with panic sales by BTLers, FTBs staying out totally and many OOs STRing.

5. Property crash has knock on effect on consumption, resulting in recession.

6. Tax revenues depressed as a result of recession. GB loses control of public finances and is forced to raise taxes.

7. Tax rises further depress the economy.

8. External shock hits the economy (oil, bird flu etc), downturn becomes major recession.

9. Global recession develops at same time as result of similar house price bubble in US & even worse public finanaces.

10. Depression lasting 10-15 years develops as households struggle to pay off negative equity and other debts.

11. China decides to flex muscles in Asia anexing Taiwan & embarks on massive armaments programme, resuting in:

12. World War III

Not very likely but you can see how one thing can lead to another.

whoa!!!! that's one serious chain of events you have there.

well done for linking them and re-percussions......likelihood is that hard times will give rise to repercussions,not necessarily these but knock-on effects could materialise.

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Guest Daddy Bear

Try this:

1. BTL scandal develops in the new year as knowledge of sharp practice becomes widespread.

2. BTL scandal causes BTLers to realise that they aren't going to make the gains expected, begin to sell up as a result.

3. Market goes YOY negative prompting more BTLers to sell up fueling crash.

4. Crash cruise speed of >1% PM develops with panic sales by BTLers, FTBs staying out totally and many OOs STRing.

5. Property crash has knock on effect on consumption, resulting in recession.

6. Tax revenues depressed as a result of recession. GB loses control of public finances and is forced to raise taxes.

7. Tax rises further depress the economy.

8. External shock hits the economy (oil, bird flu etc), downturn becomes major recession.

9. Global recession develops at same time as result of similar house price bubble in US & even worse public finanaces.

10. Depression lasting 10-15 years develops as households struggle to pay off negative equity and other debts.

11. China decides to flex muscles in Asia anexing Taiwan & embarks on massive armaments programme, resuting in:

"Every so often you need a good war to put things in order"

Margaret Thatcher May 1980

The girl was right

12. World War III

Not very likely but you can see how one thing can lead to another.

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Guest Daddy Bear

Why are the majority of posters on this website so pleased that there will be such an economic shock to the global conomy causing much suffering?

Surely this is the wrong thing to be hoping for?

Shame on you all.

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Why are the majority of posters on this website so pleased that there will be such an economic shock to the global conomy causing much suffering?

Surely this is the wrong thing to be hoping for?

Shame on you all.

Maybe because they'll be able to buy a house much cheaper - unfortunately if such an event does happen, they may not have a job :( Such a catastrophic event is much more likely to bankrupt those with lots of debt, so maybe it may work out for them in the long run?

Regards,

crude

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There's always the unexpected events. What about non-terrorsist infrastructure disasters affecting power, gas, oil, communications etc?

Some examples of events in the past few years in just one country (Australia)

Literally on Thursday this week a major fire came within a few hundred metres of a very large power station (2760 MW) in New South Wales (Oz). If that plant had actually been put out of action then there would have been no way that electricity demand in NSW could have been met in full over the coming Summer months (when demand peaks due to airconditioning) even with every other plant running at maximum capacity. Turning off the airconditioning in Sydney office blocks when it's 40 degrees outside wouldn't exactly help productivity so there certainly would have been economic damage. And of course the huge multi-BILLION dollar cost of the plant itself. Thankfully the weather turned favourably and the fire was contained and the plant is still running OK.

But the very next day a major (about 15 million tonnes per year) coal mine caught fire in the Oz state of Victoria. This feeds the seccond largest power plant in that state (about 20% of total power in Victoria) and a smaller plant too. It's still burning and they're still mining coal from that mine (otherwise the plant shuts and the lights go out). Who knows how it will turn out but hopefully they're right about being able to contain the fire. I've been there a decade ago - it's a massive mine by any standards (open cut with about 600 million tonnes mined so far).

In 1998 Victoria (Oz) lost its entire natural gas supply without warning for two weeks when a major processing plant was damaged in an explosion. Needless to say there was a degree of chaos especially in Melbourne and fortunately it wasn't in Winter. They've linked the gas systems in the Oz states since then but that plant still supplies around half the gas used across 4 Oz states.

And at this time of year two (?) years ago a huge gas processing plant in South Australia was put out of action by a similar event literally hours before the interconnection pipeline was completed. Very close timing with that one and it would have taken much of South Australia's electricity supply out if the pipe hadn't been finished.

There was considerable panic in Tasmania around May 2005 when severe drought caused hydro-electric dams to drop to just above 20% full. Fortunately it started raining later in Winter and has barely stopped ever since (so I'm sitting here on New Year's Eve with the rain pouring down wondering whether or not to go out and see the fireworks tonight...). Now the dams are 43% full and still rising in the middle of the "dry" season. Next we'll have a flood...

New Zealand has had various near-misses and an actual shortage of power in the past 4 years and now they're facing a shortage yet again despite running even oil-fired (expensive!) plants flat out. They're not the only country with such problems.

Worldwide, there have been rather a lot of oil refinery fires and accidents during 2005. This suggests that the plants are being pushed too hard both to maximise output (since there's a shortage of refineries) and possibly due to processing poorer quality types of crude oil that they weren't designed to cope with. And of course it's near certain that maintenance has been delayed with the high prices for refined petroleum. At some point that maintenance has to be done or we end up with lots of fires, breakdowns and other disasters.

What if there's a major infrastructure problem in Saudi Arabia which severely cuts oil supplies? It doesn't have to be terrorism - what about accidents etc?

So I think we should add infrastructure disasters to the list. There's LOTS of possibilities for things to go wrong.

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Why are the majority of posters on this website so pleased that there will be such an economic shock to the global economy causing much suffering?

Surely this is the wrong thing to be hoping for?

Shame on you all.

O.k. Daddy Bear, let me try to explain. You know how you watch a movie and there a are bunch of greedy, stupid people and who act with no consideration for the implications of their actions? You know how the screenwriter shows you their despicable acts of greed and thoughtlessness to the point where the audience is screaming for justice? At some point in the plot...it seems that evil will win and these people will benefit from their deeds and the just and reasonable people will be vanquished. Then, suddenly, events begin turn, evil is on the run, and in a climatic moment the evildoers are thoroughly smashed by the forces of good.

Well it's kind of like that. :D

In the case of the HPC, the forces of good have suffered greatly, and their victory won't come without sacrifices. This was not a battle of their choosing, but with a few basic precautions they can minimize the impact of an economic shock, when the name of the game will be "wealth preservation".

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Why are the majority of posters on this website so pleased that there will be such an economic shock to the global conomy causing much suffering?

Surely this is the wrong thing to be hoping for?

Shame on you all.

What shares does one short to make money on the property downturn?

Daddy Bear

Make up your mind DB. Do you wish to profit when others are suffering misfortune or not?

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If people are going to start discussing Nostradamus, then I think such threads should be moved to a separate "fringe" area of the forum. Otherwise, a lot of people are going to disengage from this site, me included. :angry:

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Heavy stuff,

I was taking this thread at face value until I noticed that it was a response to your provocation. At the end of the day there are only four points that can be made.

1) We cannot predict the future but we can observe from experience that it is unlikely to be exactly the same as the past.

2) Nevertheless we can also observe cycles - war and peace, prosperity and depression, health and sickness, happy days and sad days.

3) The best we can do is be prepared for the worst without losing our optimism for the best.

4) There is a HPC sub culture in which people engage in mental fantasies of mass repossessions and flying squads of bailiffs zipping around the country and transporting indebted people to municipal caravan sites established for the purpose. This is a rational response to the anger, disappointment and disgust felt by many. They are angry and disappointed and disgusted about a combination of the following - HPI / Intergenerational injustices / missing the boat / uk property obsession / mass consumer debt culture.

Fortunately (and for our entertainment) we are also regularly visited by investment professionals on the one hand and smug baby booming landlords on the other hand. The latter provoke us and the former stoke up our convictions.

This potent cocktail is very attractive for the occassional troll.

What interests me however are those who stumble on this site and then suffer a sinking feeling in the gut as they realise that they have miscalculated and been goaded by spin and cultural peer pressure into assuming a financial position which now looks extremely uncomfortable in the cold light of day.

Are there any of you out there?

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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