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laurejon

Spring Bounce 2006

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I have on my crash helmet, and thefore well positioned to ask this question.

Do you think there could be a spring bounce in the property market?.

Indeed. :rolleyes::rolleyes::rolleyes::rolleyes:

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I have on my crash helmet, and thefore well positioned to ask this question.

Do you think there could be a spring bounce in the property market?.

I think we've already seen a couple of Xmas press releases porporting to the end of the "dip" and gearing the public up for a rise in fortunes of the property market in '06. I think a spring bounce of sorts is almost inevitable.....how long it lasts and it's magnitude is of course the real question.

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I have on my crash helmet, and thefore well positioned to ask this question.

Do you think there could be a spring bounce in the property market?.

You can be sure we'll be hearing all about it from the BBC if there is even the smallest hint of one. However, if there isn't then we'll be hearing that the housing market is 'stabilising'

I can't predict whether there will be a spring bounce but the media reporting is very predictable.

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I have on my crash helmet, and thefore well positioned to ask this question.

Do you think there could be a spring bounce in the property market?.

Well I think thats' what two of my neighbours are hoping for, both there houses have had

for sale signs outside since Christmas (CHRISTMAS 2004 THAT IS !!!!!)

:lol::lol::lol::lol:

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Guest Riser

There appears to be a lag of around 10 months between changes in interest rates and annual HPI. It would appear that the 0.25% cut in rates last August was timed to support a Spring rally in prices.

Now that prices have reached 40% above the long average and nearly 6x average wage as opposed to the long term average of around 4x the stage seems set for a correction which will see inflation adjusted prices all by around 30-40% over the next 2-3 years.

The following chart shows illustrates the relationship between the inverse of interest rates offset by 10 months and HPI, we may have to wait for UK rates to increase in line with US and EU rates before the crash really takes hold.

With the UK housing market on the edge of its traditional tipping point it is conceivable that there is now increasesd sensitivity to external factors such as an increase in taxes, a derivatives crisis, high fuel prices, or a collapse of the dollar could combine to shatter confidence.

InterestRateHPI.gif Lag of 10 months before changes in interest rates influence reported HPI

post-1619-1135889213_thumb.jpg

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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