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wonderpup

Apocalypse Not Now?

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The end of the world seems to have gone awol since the Brexit;

Bank of England report finds economy has not slowed since Brexit vote

Theresa May’s new administration has received a significant boost from a Bank of England report showing that the economy has been resilient in the first few weeks since the Brexit vote and displays no general signs of slowing down.

The monthly survey by the Bank’s regional agents – considered to be the “eyes and ears” of policymakers in Threadneedle Street – found that a majority of firms questioned were not planning to mothball investment or change hiring plans.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/jul/20/bank-of-england-agents-report-business-as-usual-after-brexit-eu-referendum

So all the experts who predicted a meltdown of the economy following a leave vote were once again wrong. Just as they had been wrong on the ERM and on the need to join the Euro to save the economy from disaster. And wrong too on the stability of the global economy whose wellbeing they were all boasting about in the weeks before the entire thing fell off a cliff in 2008.

I can't say I'm shocked by this latest ignominous failure of prognostication by some of the worlds leading financial and governing institutions- but perhaps I should be?

After all what are the implications of the fact that those whose expertise is a vital input into the decisions made by Politiicans keep on making such gross errors of prediction?

Let us suppose these worthies were working in another field, say civil engineering, and as a result of their failed calculations and predictions Bridges and Dams were collapsing on a regular basis- would it be unreasonable to assume that in such a case heads would roll, inquires be held and working practices changed?

Yet as I look around the world I don't see anyone in the IMF or BoE losing their job- I don't see urgent inquires being set up by the EU to investigate why it's own predictions of an imploding British economy failed to materialise. In fact no one seems even slightly concerned about this apparent failure by the worlds most prestigious financial experts to get this rather important prediction right.

The opinion of many who voted to leave the EU seems to have been that the experts were lying to them in order to influence the outcome of what was supposed to be a free and democratic vote- and it appears that they may have been right.

But consider the implications of this fact- not only have all these institutions proved to be willing to whore themselves out in an effort to subvert a democratic process- they have also destroyed their own credibility in the process.

Project fear was a single use projectile- and having fired it at the Britsh electorate and failed uttelry to draw blood the governing elites are now fresh out of ammunition. So what are they going to tell the French or the Dutch or whichever EU country next get's it's chance to vote on remaining inside the EU? Are they going to wheel out the same tired collection of intellectual harlots and parade them once more as they-on cue-proclaim that doom and destruction will rain down on any other nation who dares to leave?

No- that won't work. Their only option will be to recruit Vladimir Putin to head up the remain camp to bolster the case for staying together with lurid predictions of thermonuclear war should anyone else try to escape.

Like a drawing by M.C. Escher the EU presents twin interlocking perpectives- to the migrants fleeing the middle east it's becoming a fortress to be breached- while to those inside it's taking on the aspect of a prison in which the defining ethos is not the benefits of inclusion but the high cost of escape.

Edited by wonderpup

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The monthly survey by the Bank’s regional agents – considered to be the “eyes and ears” of policymakers in Threadneedle Street – found that a majority of firms questioned were not planning to mothball investment or change hiring plans.

I often imagine the Bank's regional agents like this, after they put their reports in, come the evening.

Keep the 0.5%/ 0.25% / 0% and QE flowing.

2806_don_johnson_sp.jpg

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"Project fear was a single use projectile- and having fired it at the Britsh electorate and failed uttelry to draw blood the governing elites are now fresh out of ammunition. So what are they going to tell the French or the Dutch or whichever EU country next get's it's chance to vote on remaining inside the EU? Are they going to wheel out the same tired collection of intellectual harlots and parade them once more as they-on cue-proclaim that doom and destruction will rain down on any other nation who dares to leave?"

The shite coming from the remain "experts" had the same feel as the "experts" who said Iraq had weapons of mass destruction and we would be blasted to oblivion in 45 mintues. The british public have learnt and woken up to politicians lies this time around.

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On the contrary Impatiently Waiting, where is Osborne's emergency budget? Demonstrably proven to be a pack of boll ocks. As widely predicted in event of Brexit, he has been sacked.

Edited by Untoward

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They're bound to say that. They not amt to talk the economics my up and down Rather than not printing money ate changing IRS

Edited by TheCountOfNowhere

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Agree with other comments, nothing has changed since brexit except the turds at the boe threatening QE and IR cut. Given the respective stock market and hpi a boost and the Pound a kicking...

Edited by GreenDevil

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Come on guys, it's a bit early to call time on the risks.

Heres an article by a guy I know, talking about the risks to scientists in getting their next project https://www.theguardian.com/education/2016/jul/12/its-not-business-as-usual-until-brexit-uk-scientists-are-already-feeling-the-effects.

It'll take years before we can really say what the consequences were

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It's been four weeks ffs. Brexit hasn't even occurred / been triggered yet.

This place is full of absolute moon units.

And yet Remain supporters were willing to label the so-called "promises" made by the Brexiteers as lies and failed promises, literally days after the vote.

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It's been four weeks ffs. Brexit hasn't even occurred / been triggered yet.

This place is full of absolute moon units.

In the finance world something has happened as soon as everybody knows that it's going to happen. I'm still waiting for any indication of the predicted moon unit size decline in our economy. So for all I've seen is some weakness in GBP, which Carney has been desperately trying to engineer prior to the vote anyway, and is one of those things that is both good and bad depending upon your perspective (Ask the boys on the Gold thread about it and they'll laugh at you for imagining that GBP represented any sort of reliable store of value).

Which companies that were threatening to leave are actually going through with it?

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Come on guys, it's a bit early to call time on the risks.

Heres an article by a guy I know, talking about the risks to scientists in getting their next project https://www.theguardian.com/education/2016/jul/12/its-not-business-as-usual-until-brexit-uk-scientists-are-already-feeling-the-effects.

It'll take years before we can really say what the consequences were

They'll want us to stay in the Framework Programmes, and there's form on that, as the Swiss are in them despite not being in the EU. But we should tell them to shove it because it's just another avenue of control (as per the recent EU threats to throw the Swiss out as a political lever).

I spent years running the finances of scores of EU projects. The whole thing is a cluster******.

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Just goes to show that all these experts haven't a clue.

If you applied the same 'economic' logic to missile technology, they'd be flying off in all directions.

Economic forecasting is little more than voodoo.

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It's been four weeks ffs. Brexit hasn't even occurred / been triggered yet.

This place is full of absolute moon units.

Ok- so the most that could have been said before the vote was that there was a mid term risk of some kind of downturn of unknown proportions- what we got from the 'experts' was something entirely different- we got confident-indeed aggressively confident-predictions of a near term catastophic meltdown of the UK economy- so either the experts in question were lying in the interests of the various elite groups they support or are supported by -or they were wrong to make such apocalyptic assertions in the first place.

Either way their credibility is blown since even if there is some kind of recession in the UK a year or two down the line the world will have moved on and any direct link between Brexit and the downturn will itself become speculative.

If the objective of project fear was to teach a short term pavlovian lesson to the plebs of Europe that leaving the EU would bring ruin down upon them then it has failed dismally -in part because the very hysteria of the pre vote predictions created expecations so apocalypic that they make any subsequent negative effects seem mild in comparison.

Having screamed at the top of their collective lungs that an entire pack of ravenous wolves were about to fall upon us the subsequent delayed apperance of a single mangy animal in the form of a common or garden recession may invoke not fear but laughter from those who expected to be torn to economic bits the day after the vote came in.

The point-of course- is that project fear was supposed to work and if it had then all those hysterical predictions would have remained untested and thus could have been depolyed in other 'democratic' votes in the future- but the unexpected outcome of the referendum and the subsequent failure of the Apocalypse to appear within days in the form of Osborne's 'emergency budget' has poisoned the well of fear for the future, creating a real dillemma for any other EU elite intent on scaring the shite out of it's own population (all in the name of 'democracy' of course)

The irony is that had the UK Elite and it's army of experts presented a more nuanced view they might have actually been more persuasive- instead they merely confirmed the widespread cynical veiw that the political class and it's servant institutions will say anything to get their own way and protect their own interests- and the manifest non appearance of any of the extreme measures predicted by the Chancellor of the Exchequer simply confirms this view to be correct- he lied to us about the need for such extreme measures as cuts to pensions and tax rises ect- and the most interesting thing about all of this is that no one is even surprised that the holder of the second most powerful postion in the UK goverment deliberately lied to the people- this is just to be expected apparently in the brave new world of globalized political gamesmanship.

Edited by wonderpup

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Roy will be on shortly to send this thread into oblivion and defend the indefensible

There is nothing to defend at the moment, only a "moon unit" with no understanding of market economics would assume that enough time had passed, or had changed, to significantly impact world or domestic economics. Be patient "mooneyfornothing unit", be patient.

Edited by Royw6

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I think it is very likely that other countries will follow the UK and do just fine, and we will probably also get along just fine. I honestly think there were aspects of the EU and the Euro that were just negative, I always thought that Spain was never the same after joining the Euro, and we will be stuck with millions of Eastern Europeans once it all falls apart,

As far as I can tell in Spain, there is no discernable undercurrent of hostility towards eu migrants from eastern europe (other than the usual noise from a small far right element). And I can attribute this to two things; firstly that it would be somewhat hypocritical of the spaniards to hate on the eastern europeans (a lot from romania I think) seeing as the spanish youth have done the exact same thing and come to the UK in droves looking for work.

and secondly, a lot of the work the eastern europeans have taken up is much like the eastern european work taken up in rural lincolnshire etc in the UK, namely agricultural that the locals want nothing to do with

The spanish younger generations have turned their nose up to agricultural work for years (granted it's hard and not very well paid) so the eastern europeans step in (before the ascesion of eastern europe to the eu, a lot of this farm work was given to illegal africans with truly appalling pay and conditions)

Anecdotally the same attitude to agricultural work occurs in Portugal (from a friend whose 80 year old father still works the vineyards of his family farm because he can't get anyone who wants to do it). It's concerning as there will be a skills shortage in farming in the near future

As far as the euro is concerned it has indeed (as predicted) made the cost of living far more expensive in spain, but I hear no clamour for a return to the pesaeta

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I never suggested that the Spanish have any problems with Eastern Europeans??

They do have their own unique problems though, for one they have a terrible youth unemployment problem along with Greece and Portugal.

Sorry I misunderstood

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There is nothing to defend at the moment, only a "moon unit" with no understanding of market economics would assume that enough time had passed, or had changed, to significantly impact world or domestic economics. Be patient "mooneyfornothing unit", be patient.

The point is that most people do not have much understanding of market economics- all they know is that the economy was supposed to go into meltdown immediately following brexit and this does not appear to have happened. What matters here is not the reality but the perception- and the perception is that the Apocalypse predicted did not arrive.

It may well be that in a year or so the impact of Brexit will indeed reveal itself in the form of a recession of some sort- but by then Brexit will be ancient history in the minds of the great unwashed and they will regard any attempt to attribute the downturn to Brexit as a ploy by the Governement to shift the blame away from themselves.

Public igonorance of matters financial is a double edged sword for those who would shape public opinion- it allows great scope for manipulation on the one hand, but makes it extremely difficult to employ sophisticated market based arguments on the other.

But the real point that is often overlooked I think is that Brexit itself has altered the reality in which it's impacts will be manifest- already we are seeing shifts inside the EU in terms of the positons of Germany and France, with the Germans taking a less punitve view than the French re the future of negotiations with the UK- and this difference of opinion is creating two camps inside the EU,with the east european states tending toward the German view and the southern europeans favouring the more hard line french view. Partly this reflects the degree of trade interdependance these countries have with the UK and perhaps partly a desire to avoid alienating a NATO ally.

The reality is that the UK is more than just a trading partner with the EU, it's also a relatively significant financial, military and geopolitcal entity in it's own right, which makes any deal on trade far more complicated than a simple 'take it or leave it' proposition.

So it's by no means clear that the EU we voted to leave will be the same EU we will be negotiating with six months from now- it too is changing as a result of Brexit.

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The point is that most people do not have much understanding of market economics- all they know is that the economy was supposed to go into meltdown immediately following brexit and this does not appear to have happened. What matters here is not the reality but the perception- and the perception is that the Apocalypse predicted did not arrive.

It may well be that in a year or so the impact of Brexit will indeed reveal itself in the form of a recession of some sort- but by then Brexit will be ancient history in the minds of the great unwashed and they will regard any attempt to attribute the downturn to Brexit as a ploy by the Governement to shift the blame away from themselves.

Public igonorance of matters financial is a double edged sword for those who would shape public opinion- it allows great scope for manipulation on the one hand, but makes it extremely difficult to employ sophisticated market based arguments on the other.

But the real point that is often overlooked I think is that Brexit itself has altered the reality in which it's impacts will be manifest- already we are seeing shifts inside the EU in terms of the positons of Germany and France, with the Germans taking a less punitve view than the French re the future of negotiations with the UK- and this difference of opinion is creating two camps inside the EU,with the east european states tending toward the German view and the southern europeans favouring the more hard line french view. Partly this reflects the degree of trade interdependance these countries have with the UK and perhaps partly a desire to avoid alienating a NATO ally.

The reality is that the UK is more than just a trading partner with the EU, it's also a relatively significant financial, military and geopolitcal entity in it's own right, which makes any deal on trade far more complicated than a simple 'take it or leave it' proposition.

So it's by no means clear that the EU we voted to leave will be the same EU we will be negotiating with six months from now- it too is changing as a result of Brexit.

That is absolutely spot on. Interestingly, even NATO is now under threat with D Trump and the Turkish crackdown. The old certainties seem increasing uncertain.

I would note that significant commercial empires have crashed previously, so the UK cannot be certain of its position in the world.

Edited by Royw6

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They'll want us to stay in the Framework Programmes, and there's form on that, as the Swiss are in them despite not being in the EU.

Specifically, what are the "Framework Programmes"?

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