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Pwc Housing Outlook Report July 16

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Not seen this posted anywhere, so thought I'd link to it.

http://www.pwc.co.uk/assets/pdf/ukeo/ukeo-july-2016-housing-market-outlook.pdf

I thought it was worth posting as one section considers best and worst case scenarios in their view.

Of course it goes without saying that their worst case scenario is very mild by the standards of some on here.... but still I found it useful, so maybe others will too!

I'm particularly interested if anyone has opionions on whether PWC might be biased in anyway that cause them to be overly optimisitic in these forecasts.

ukeo_july_2016_housing_market_outlook_pd

also pre and post brexit predictions.ukeo_july_2016_housing_market_outlook_pd

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Pure comedy gold.

The good news for generation renters is that Brexit may actually help them get on the ladder slightly

sooner as we expect it to slow the pace of house price growth. Unfortunately, the effect is small,

as we estimate a generation renter starting to save in 2016 can now buy in 2035, rather than 2037 if

the UK had voted to remain.

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And in the meantime, they'll only have to share their bedroom with two other slum tenants, thanks to Brexit. Wins all round.

The youth of today really need to wake up and smell the coffee. That is not an acceptable state of affairs, and the possibility of running away to another EU country where they are not yet quite so bent over the barrel is not an acceptable solution.

That is the main beef about Brexit that the young have, isn't it? It means they can't escape the hell-hole that the UK has become quite so easily?

Incidentally, I just signed an e-petition to have politics and international affairs compulsory at GCSE level.

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Lol! I got as far as paragraph 2 before deciding that whoever wrote this probably also believes in unicorns.

Our high scenario reflects a resilient macroeconomic environment… there is further easing in mortgage lending as the Bank of England embarks on monetary and credit easing over the next few months.

Sounds very resilient. Exactly how high were they when they came up with this scenario?

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Is anyone else having my problem with the forum where you can't view more than the first page of any thread?

I'm worried this thread is going to go past page 1 and I'll have to find another new one to read anything new!

I've reported it in the "about hpc" subforum...

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And in the meantime, they'll only have to share their bedroom with two other slum tenants, thanks to Brexit. Wins all round.

The youth of today really need to wake up and smell the coffee. That is not an acceptable state of affairs, and the possibility of running away to another EU country where they are not yet quite so bent over the barrel is not an acceptable solution.

That is the main beef about Brexit that the young have, isn't it? It means they can't escape the hell-hole that the UK has become quite so easily?

Incidentally, I just signed an e-petition to have politics and international affairs compulsory at GCSE level.

That reminds me, I saw a report today that 0.1% of petitions on the government website have lead to changes in the law.

Edited by spunko2010

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Lol! I got as far as paragraph 2 before deciding that whoever wrote this probably also believes in unicorns.

Sounds very resilient. Exactly how high were they when they came up with this scenario?

Unicorns actually existed apparently.

http://www.usnews.com/news/articles/2016-03-28/newly-discovered-fossil-reveals-when-siberian-unicorns-last-roamed-the-earth

If you believe this you'll probably also believe man went to the moon in a casio calculator powered tin foil hut in 1969 yet haven't been further than 400 miles off the earth in the last forty four years. :ph34r:

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If you believe this you'll probably also believe man went to the moon in a casio calculator powered tin foil hut in 1969 yet haven't been further than 400 miles off the earth in the last forty four years. :ph34r:

Just want to be crystal clear, you are serious about this?

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Oh noes! Gone past page one so I can't follow the thread!

But stil I'll post blind. The problem with econometric models is that they ignore the behavioural aspects of the market. That includes the impact of their own forecast too. We know there are a significant number of landlords who will need to sell up before 2020. If the forecasts say that prices will dip or slow for a couple of years and then pick up, they'll be tempted to hold out which means a herd-like rush for the exit in 2018-2020.

Add to that the factor that uncertainty regarding the economy is bound to increase from 2017 onwards when we trigger article 50 and those hoping it might not happen are disappointed, then you have not only a perfect storm (which we had anyway) but a shitstorm within a storm.

To say the least, I think their worst case scenario is on the optimistic side, if you take their idea of what is optimistic means.

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That reminds me, I saw a report today that 0.1% of petitions on the government website have lead to changes in the law.

How many of them get 100k signatures though? That's probably only 3% itself. To be fair, a lot of them are very minority views which aren't enough of an issue for me to support. I saw this one today because I was checking the numbers of the "invote article 50 immediately" petition, which has surpassed 100k now.

I saw the GCSE one and signed it. I also saw one to allow the Islamic call to prayer to be sounded at more than a whisper which I'm tempted to support since I don't see why not unless church bells are quietened. But the rest were nothings to me, maybe the politicians lying one but we'd have none outside of jail.

I think we should use the facility as much as possible though. Not just sign it, but more importantly share it. It's the closest to direct democracy we have and if using it catches on then we could see more with millions rather than thousands of signatories.

The more it's used, the more likely it is to be effective in my opinion. It is, in effect, public lobbying and the more public lobbying is the better, imo.

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I thought it was worth posting as one section considers best and worst case scenarios in their view.

Of course it goes without saying that their worst case scenario is very mild by the standards of some on here.... but still I found it useful, so maybe others will too!

I'm particularly interested if anyone has opionions on whether PWC might be biased in anyway that cause them to be overly optimisitic in these forecasts.

It's a market, and I'll take that sunshine view over your own market-view. There were many foreverHPI reports going straight into the crunch 2007/08.

And even when it crunch was obvious and clear into 2008, still had bubble-heads on the top-finance side of things, overlooking it all, going in with multi-£10Bns euro takeovers for another bank - army of senior bankers/auditors (1 half-full CD and a few leafs of A4 of due-diligence as I recall it) letting it all go through - to aggressively expand - then to find not bought a treasure at all at top-whack. And sudden/shocking movement of money out of their own core-position to improved safety of other banks/investments.

Then later, few years later, other financial head trying to expand, agreeing a deal and Chief Exec bragging about 'taking the shirt from his back' - a few months before it was discovered/admitted their own books totally in terrible state and needing financial rescue.

IMO you're not going to get absolute guidance on market from public source official forecasting - and it certainly doesn't come with any compensation if you lap it up and buy at peak prices, if prices fall. What you can do is refuse to pay £250K for a South Manchester/Cheshire terrace, or £400,000-£500,000 for South Manchester / Cheshire semi, or not... those who choose to buy ever day, in belief market stable, that represent good value, and even HPI++ glory ahead. Market.

At least PwC outlook paper should slow the owner-side suffering/sympathy side for a a few hours.

This is not conjecture but a stated aim of BoE housing policy. They do everything they can to keep property in that 8%-12% sweet spot. So %20 gainz in slough is as concerning for them as it is for us. They would much prefer 10%. And they have taken action to reduce HPI to this level. And it has worked. If they hadn't of intervened with C24 HPI would have been much higher.

You certainty seem to find everything in post after post of the happy HPI side of thing, coming here 'in a position to buy this year', so buy if you want to imo. That's the market.

I will take a combination of other factors, and put them altogether, beyond Brexit such as S24 (although I realise you think it's to protect HPI and 'they would never have done it if any risk of S24 helping renters'), and also use my own mind (together with other hpcers as sources) such as Deutsche Bank's own view....

BTL c.40% transactions recent year.... material number of BTLers will face pain and squeeze on returns. BTL swings from a low turn segment to a material source of supply.

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?/topic/210160-dbag-predicts-house-price-shock/?p=1103025175

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It's a market, and I'll take that sunshine view over your own market-view. There were many foreverHPI reports going straight into the crunch 2007/08.

Any chance I can do Boris and disown all past comments please?

My view is changing everyday, just trying to work it all out.

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