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rantnrave

Land Reg July 2016

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Luton, Watford, Milton Keynes, St Albans, Welwyn Garden etc etc all near the top. Londoners just being pushed further out....

Highly pertinent to this thread. They forgot to include Osborne on this list -> https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2016/jul/19/police-release-details-of-10-most-wanted-alleged-uk-con-artists?CMP=twt_gu

Edited by AvoidDebt

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Osborne's legacy as six years as Chancellor

It's the independent (cough) Bank of England's legacy too.

...and judging by Haldane's and Vlieghe's recent comments in the wake of the Brexit vote, we shouldn't be surprised if additional monetary stimulus is introduced in August.

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Today's other major release - consumer prices - shows rent inflation easing.

Annual rent inflation was 3.0% in December 2015, but was down to 1.8% in June 2016. Looking at the monthly pattern, it could well go below 1% before the end of the year.

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ONS has released a separate publication today:

Explaining the impact of the new UK house price index: 2016

It shows that the new house price index is quite closely aligned with Nationwide and Halifax:

UK_HPI_May2016b.gif

I Can scarcelyt believe this madness

We were forced to bail the banks and look what they have done.

That grapg starts going up right at the point FLS/HTB was introduced.

What we hav e here is a state funded sub prime bubble.

The US had Fannie Mae....

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I reckon if you look closely, you can identify the QE spikes before then too.

So basically printed money has cause this inflation.

We have mega inflation in the UK.

Money relative to housing has become worthless.

The question is...what the hell will they do next to try and keep prices up and the banks solvent.

It's criminal. Just criminal imho

Edited by TheCountOfNowhere

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Hmm.....

PCL at the bottom, Suburban pretty high, crapholes burning hot. Doesn't take a genius to see where this is going....all about da barganz innit... :rolleyes:

The inevitable crashing wave will spread out, eventually.

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The problem is with HTB, the government shares in any HPI, so the government effectively has an interest in HPI and so will support it. With every HTB loan paid out, there is more incentive for BOE to keep HPI going.

If you think about, why would they do anything else? What is their incentive to allow lower house prices? They are hedging against slowing economic growth, if house prices rise and spending falls, they still get their cut.

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People will be able to afford to eat.

Hungry people are angry people.

But morgage arrears are heading downwards. And household debt as % income is down too over same period

I'm not trolling honestly, but I don't see any facts behind this angle.

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Government is highly incentivised to keep house prices high, so won't voluntarily drop them unless some external event forces them too. If house prices fall they own part of the negative equity of every HTB. So why wouldn't they prop it up with every tool they have?

this is mortgage arrears

20151112-chart-1-repossessions-buy-to-le

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HousePriceMania@HousePriceMania nowLuton, England

@bankofengland according to land reg. House prices in Slough up 23% yoy. Dont you think this is a problem ? What should people eat. bricks?

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Good on you for taking it to them.

And if we're not eating bricks right now, they are certainly sh*tting them.

Edited by rantnrave

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Government is highly incentivised to keep house prices high, so won't voluntarily drop them unless some external event forces them too. If house prices fall they own part of the negative equity of every HTB. So why wouldn't they prop it up with every tool they have?

this is mortgage arrears

20151112-chart-1-repossessions-buy-to-le

Interesting graph. I really think we're in this for the very long term. Crashes will come, but I'll bet they're minor 10-15% blips that get made-up in following years. We might just have to accept this is normal for decades to come.

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@bankofengland according to land reg. House prices in Slough up 23% yoy. Dont you think this is a problem ? What should people eat. bricks?

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It's obviously a problem, doesn't change the facts. Most people, in Q2's UK environment, could afford to pay those prices in slough and elsewhere, and affordability was trending up, not down, according to arrears and debt stats.

But this doesn't mean sentiment can't drive down prices. My money is on a 20% average fall by 2018. But unless something very unexpected happens in the BoE, then I'd be surprised to see further drops.

It's a global trend also. Not restricted to slough.

Turkey has 20% nationwide HPI. New Zealand 15%. UK is relatively average. Be glad you don't live in Sweden or Oz!

Knight-Frank-Global-House-Price-Index.jp

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Unemployment currently at 5%?

Peak unemployment of 8.4% as a result of 2008 crash occured in winter 2011, 2 years prior to HPI.

Predictions of unemployment to rise to 7.1% by end of 2019 as a result of Brexit which would possibly occur as of Jan 2019, as always a considerable margin of error and market calming bias.

UK likely to enter recession early 2017, so that's pretty much a similar delay as per previous recession if predictions correct.

So possibly look at a sharp drop once recession confirmed, followed by 2+ years of stagnation and unemployment rising.

HTB hopefully offset by BTL changes.

As always don't underestimate the power of sentiment, the media will soon catch on once large companies start relocating after article 50 triggered.

Edited by Barnsey

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