Jump to content
House Price Crash Forum

Recommended Posts

80% falls would probably mean a breakdown in society within the UK but I am hoping for 15%-20% falls within the next two years. It will cost me another 12K grand in rent to wait but that would be about £35k off the kind of house I am looking at. In 2008/2009 I learnt you just have to be ready to pounce and be decisive when sentiment takes a downturn, was waiting too long for the right house and thought prices would continue to drop then HTB came along, mortgage relief etc. A Tory government will do absolutely nothing to make housing affordable whatever they say in the media but perhaps if Brexit becomes a shambles and the global economy slows then things may accelerate further.

I also have a Plan B if the Govnt continue to support the housing market at all costs as should everyone else. Its a mistake to think the Govnt wont throw everything at keeping prices high which they will until they cant any longer. How long that might take is difficult to predict.

A breakdown in society is already here in many ways, and it will get worse. The government will have to be very careful what money they throw at whom as I think the backlash could result in riots etc.

Link to post
Share on other sites
  • Replies 57
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

We're moving back to Lancashire in the new year and after a few viewings to get an idea of the range on offer (£100-250k) found a place that was pretty good for us (4 bed, 3 reception Edwardian mid terrace) and inevitably my wife has fallen in love with it. That's at £240k. Average sold prices for the past couple of years, according to rightmove are £190k. Median household income for the area is about £32k, UQ £38.5k, mean £40k. A similar house on the same street is rented at £900 pcm.

It's better than the median house in the town so working off mean incomes it's on at 6x. That said I wouldn't have pegged it as an upper quartile house so, shock of shocks, the price is still mad.

There are also loads of new builds recently completed with loads more going up. I wouldn't touch them with a barge pole but it does mean that there isn't a shortage of houses.

4.5x mean household income for the area wouldn't be a terrible price but I don't see it dropping to £180k any time soon. Volumes are still on the floor mind and there doesn't seem to be much of a pick up after the April doldrums. The problem is that there are so many owned outright that people aren't in a hurry to move so "can't give them away". Older than average population so inheritors wanting to get shut quickly is about the best option.

Link to post
Share on other sites

We're moving back to Lancashire in the new year and after a few viewings to get an idea of the range on offer (£100-250k) found a place that was pretty good for us (4 bed, 3 reception Edwardian mid terrace) and inevitably my wife has fallen in love with it. That's at £240k. Average sold prices for the past couple of years, according to rightmove are £190k. Median household income for the area is about £32k, UQ £38.5k, mean £40k. A similar house on the same street is rented at £900 pcm.

It's better than the median house in the town so working off mean incomes it's on at 6x. That said I wouldn't have pegged it as an upper quartile house so, shock of shocks, the price is still mad.

There are also loads of new builds recently completed with loads more going up. I wouldn't touch them with a barge pole but it does mean that there isn't a shortage of houses.

4.5x mean household income for the area wouldn't be a terrible price but I don't see it dropping to £180k any time soon. Volumes are still on the floor mind and there doesn't seem to be much of a pick up after the April doldrums. The problem is that there are so many owned outright that people aren't in a hurry to move so "can't give them away". Older than average population so inheritors wanting to get shut quickly is about the best option.

Everything aside from the asking price sounds like my area in Norwich.... except that house would be 350K

Got to love East Anglia wages like the North house prices like the South

Link to post
Share on other sites

Between January and July 2017. I have the right to buy but I admit I do not feel comfortable using it as it feels a bit unethical. However it's the only way I'm going to get onto the housing ladder. Well I mean 'housing steps' as I don't intend to go far up it. Maybe upgrade to a larfer property in 15-20 years from now. Mortgage on current place would cost about 130 quid a month. I have always been careful with money even though I've had health problems and become quite deranged I've always had enough savings to fall back ans no credit card debt so should be okay. I still worry incessantly about everything though regardless. It's part of the reason I became sick.

I predict house prices to fall most in 2017 so could be caught out slightly. I'm more worried the council will whack me with a huge bill for improvements to the building but I guess that's slight karma.

Edited by spacedin
Link to post
Share on other sites

We talk about people and their expectations of buying......I am seeing many that are selling to rent, not because they want to, but because they have no other choice....they bit off more than they could chew, things happen.......working out how many months any equity/deposit will last renting.......what then?.......who will pay the rent? ;)

Link to post
Share on other sites

Everything aside from the asking price sounds like my area in Norwich.... except that house would be 350K

Got to love East Anglia wages like the North house prices like the South

I concur with this post! :(

Link to post
Share on other sites

Everything aside from the asking price sounds like my area in Norwich.... except that house would be 350K

Got to love East Anglia wages like the North house prices like the South

Grim!

My bit of Lancashire isn't brilliantly connected but door to door commutes to either Manchester or Leeds would be an hour and a half so it isn't the absolute back of beyond. Not that I'll be doing either of those but there seems to be plenty of folks who would. Presumably the London ripple has screwed up East Anglia? I wouldn't have guessed it would have made it that far, admittedly I don't know the area.

Link to post
Share on other sites

We talk about people and their expectations of buying......I am seeing many that are selling to rent, not because they want to, but because they have no other choice....they bit off more than they could chew, things happen.......working out how many months any equity/deposit will last renting.......what then?.......who will pay the rent? ;)

If they bit off more than they can chew in the current scenario, where mortgage rates have been falling for a few years now, then they've really taken a big bite! Many double income no kids with higher than average salaries are taking a huge risk that one of them won't be in full time employment or have to take a lower wage job.

Many are seeing mortgage payments drop when they re-mortgage due to HPI improving their LTV. Friend of mine bought in 2013 on a 3 year 4.99% fixed and just went onto tracker at 1.3%. Now overpaying mortgage significantly. Will be in a very safe place in equity within a few years. He was sensible as has a family and bought on one wage. Wife could work part time if need be. Didn't overstretch.

Quite how many double income no kids who have stretched to buy are out there I don't know. Don't know if there is data out there either but if the numbers are high then we may see enough distressed sellers to affect prices.

Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

  • 415 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.