Jump to content
House Price Crash Forum
Sign in to follow this  
Fairyland

Falling Prices, Freebies And Finite Renters ... Oh Dear

Recommended Posts

It can' get better than this - http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-07-18/buy-a-london-home-win-a-parking-space-as-developers-seek-buyers

London homebuilders are offering to pay sales taxes, gift 20,000 pounds ($26,800) of furniture and the chance to win a free parking space as Britains vote to leave the European Union damps demand.

An economic contraction means residential property values in London will probably fall as much as 10 percent next year and U.K. homebuilder sales will drop by 5 percent, according to Barclays Plc analyst Jon Bell. That means more competition among developers, who are building a record number of high-end homes in London for those brave enough to purchase as the economy weakens.

Edited by Fairyland

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Biggest hit BTL are going to get is when TC + HB are removed from EUers.

You'll have ~2m rentals coming on the market.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

What did they say about demand supply

The number of rental properties available in London surged 33 percent in June from a year earlier after landlords rushed to buy before the stamp duty tax on second-homes increased in April, according to data compiled by Countrywide Plc. Increased supply in the market is slowing rental growth, the broker said.

That means now’s not the time for investors to buy, said Charlie Ellingworth, a co-founder at broker Property Vision Ltd., which advises purchasers. “New builds have been flooding the market and the number of renters is finite, so if people leave your main worry will be finding a tenant.”

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Biggest hit BTL are going to get is when TC + HB are removed from EUers.

You'll have ~2m rentals coming on the market.

Yes, I agree. What the chances of TC+HB removal from EUers happening and by when?

Also, this Autumn will see another reduction in benefit cap from £26K to £23K.

From what I found here, https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/520801/benefit-cap-statistics-to-feb-2016.pdf , 72% of capped households (52,800) are off the cap. Majority of them have an open WTC claim.

Don't know if WTC is a lure to get off the ground and start working then slowly as work rolls on crutches removes? If so, I would vote the government again, whichever it is.

Edited by Fairyland

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The number of EU nationals claiming welfare benefits is around 100k, they mostly likely occupy around 30-50k properties.

Your 2m claim is a pure fantasy.

http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2016/02/19/how-much-do-eu-migrants-c_n_9272428.html

Utter boll0cks...

http://www.migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/reports/eu-migration-welfare-benefits-and-eu-membership

'Key points

  • EU citizens with jobs have similar access to the benefits as UK citizens. For jobseekers or people not working, the rules for determining eligibility can be complex and vary depending on the type of benefit in question.

    More...

  • In February 2016 the UK and the EU agreed a set of proposals to restrict newly arriving EEA citizens’ access to in-work benefits if the UK votes to remain in the EU. The proposals also include the ability to reduce child benefit payments in respect of children living in other EEA countries, who currently make up about 0.3% of child benefit claims.

    More...

  • EU migrants are less likely to claim out-of-work benefits but more likely to claim in-work benefits like tax credits, compared to the UK born.

    More...

  • Most EU tax credit recipients in the UK did not arrive within the past four years and thus would not have been affected by restrictions on access to in-work benefits if they had been in place in recent years.

    More...

  • Available data suggest that roughly 10-20% of recently arrived EU adults were receiving tax credits in early 2014.

    More...

  • The government’s November 2015 estimate of ‘about 40%’ of recently arrived EEA migrants supported by benefits is higher than other available estimates for various reasons, including the fact that it counts children as benefits recipients.

    More...

  • More than half of EEA born adults who reported receiving tax credits in 2015 were working full time, and around 90% had dependent children (despite less than half of EEA born adults overall having children).

    More...

  • The impacts of proposed benefits restrictions are likely to vary widely and be concentrated on a small share of families with children - particularly minimum-wage workers with children and those in families without two-full time earners.

    More...

  • If the National Living Wage increases families’ incomes, this will reduce in-work benefits entitlements even without restrictions on welfare eligibility.

    More...

  • Because the impacts of in-work benefits restrictions are concentrated on a small share of newly arriving families, it is unlikely that they would lead to a large reduction in EU migration to the UK.

    More...'

Edited by Sancho Panza

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Point to note: Barclays is predicting 10% fall over next year. Till Yesterday most optimistic falls were around 4%. Where will they go by this weekend? Wait and watch.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Biggest hit BTL are going to get is when TC + HB are removed from EUers.

You'll have ~2m rentals coming on the market.

Exactly.People arent spotting how Brexit will probably work with welfare.Once we leave we dont need to make benefits available for everyone the same.Even if we kept free movement we can still change the welfare system to UK citizens only etc.Notice how they keep saying people already here will have "leave to stay" not "citizen",big difference.House prices will fall like stones in parts of Romania.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Utter boll0cks...

http://www.migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/reports/eu-migration-welfare-benefits-and-eu-membership

'Key points

  • EU citizens with jobs have similar access to the benefits as UK citizens. For jobseekers or people not working, the rules for determining eligibility can be complex and vary depending on the type of benefit in question.

    More...

  • In February 2016 the UK and the EU agreed a set of proposals to restrict newly arriving EEA citizens’ access to in-work benefits if the UK votes to remain in the EU. The proposals also include the ability to reduce child benefit payments in respect of children living in other EEA countries, who currently make up about 0.3% of child benefit claims.

    More...

  • EU migrants are less likely to claim out-of-work benefits but more likely to claim in-work benefits like tax credits, compared to the UK born.

    More...

  • Most EU tax credit recipients in the UK did not arrive within the past four years and thus would not have been affected by restrictions on access to in-work benefits if they had been in place in recent years.

    More...

  • Available data suggest that roughly 10-20% of recently arrived EU adults were receiving tax credits in early 2014.

    More...

  • The government’s November 2015 estimate of ‘about 40%’ of recently arrived EEA migrants supported by benefits is higher than other available estimates for various reasons, including the fact that it counts children as benefits recipients.

    More...

  • More than half of EEA born adults who reported receiving tax credits in 2015 were working full time, and around 90% had dependent children (despite less than half of EEA born adults overall having children).

    More...

  • The impacts of proposed benefits restrictions are likely to vary widely and be concentrated on a small share of families with children - particularly minimum-wage workers with children and those in families without two-full time earners.

    More...

  • If the National Living Wage increases families’ incomes, this will reduce in-work benefits entitlements even without restrictions on welfare eligibility.

    More...

  • Because the impacts of in-work benefits restrictions are concentrated on a small share of newly arriving families, it is unlikely that they would lead to a large reduction in EU migration to the UK.

    More...'

I can't see any number in your posts confirming that a few millions of nationals claim welfare benefits.

The document you send says on page 7 that there are 300k families with with at least one "EU migrant" adult claiming tax credit.

This number includes all immigrants even those who came many years ago and mixed families.

Knowing that only half of the EU immigrants came after 2004, the number of EU families which arrived in the last 10 years and claim TC is around 150k, not near 2mln claim.

If you consider only EU migrants from the last 4 years the numbers are (the same page of your document)

84k families at least one adult EU national

61k families all adults are EU nationals

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Even if there are 30K - 50K properties occupied by HB claimant EU nationals it's impact on rental market may be much more. Some of them may be large family homes which, when freed, could be shared by others. Freeing up these 50K properties would reduce BTL demand, reduce profit margin make BTL sell up, reduce prices thus increasing OO.

Would be good to find some stats

1. Total HB paid to EU migrants vs UK citizens

2. Cost of Other benefits and costs (NHS, Schools, council tax, DLA ...) paid to EU migrants vs UK citizens

3. How figures changed over last 15 years.

Edited by Fairyland

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Point to note: Barclays is predicting 10% fall over next year. Till Yesterday most optimistic falls were around 4%. Where will they go by this weekend? Wait and watch.

Interesting. Got a link?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Interesting. Got a link?

Check quotes in the very first post "An economic contraction means residential property values in London will probably fall as much as 10 percent next year and U.K. homebuilder sales will drop by 5 percent"

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Exactly.People arent spotting how Brexit will probably work with welfare.Once we leave we dont need to make benefits available for everyone the same.Even if we kept free movement we can still change the welfare system to UK citizens only etc.Notice how they keep saying people already here will have "leave to stay" not "citizen",big difference.House prices will fall like stones in parts of Romania.

The UK will stay with right to work. But it'll be just that - right to work.

The ECJ confirmed this was legal under EU rules a month ago.

Germany + Nlands are keen for this too. They suffer, but a lot lot less than the UK.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Utter boll0cks...

http://www.migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/reports/eu-migration-welfare-benefits-and-eu-membership

'Key points

  • EU citizens with jobs have similar access to the benefits as UK citizens. For jobseekers or people not working, the rules for determining eligibility can be complex and vary depending on the type of benefit in question.

    More...

  • In February 2016 the UK and the EU agreed a set of proposals to restrict newly arriving EEA citizens’ access to in-work benefits if the UK votes to remain in the EU. The proposals also include the ability to reduce child benefit payments in respect of children living in other EEA countries, who currently make up about 0.3% of child benefit claims.

    More...

  • EU migrants are less likely to claim out-of-work benefits but more likely to claim in-work benefits like tax credits, compared to the UK born.

    More...

  • Most EU tax credit recipients in the UK did not arrive within the past four years and thus would not have been affected by restrictions on access to in-work benefits if they had been in place in recent years.

    More...

  • Available data suggest that roughly 10-20% of recently arrived EU adults were receiving tax credits in early 2014.

    More...

  • The government’s November 2015 estimate of ‘about 40%’ of recently arrived EEA migrants supported by benefits is higher than other available estimates for various reasons, including the fact that it counts children as benefits recipients.

    More...

  • More than half of EEA born adults who reported receiving tax credits in 2015 were working full time, and around 90% had dependent children (despite less than half of EEA born adults overall having children).

    More...

  • The impacts of proposed benefits restrictions are likely to vary widely and be concentrated on a small share of families with children - particularly minimum-wage workers with children and those in families without two-full time earners.

    More...

  • If the National Living Wage increases families’ incomes, this will reduce in-work benefits entitlements even without restrictions on welfare eligibility.

    More...

  • Because the impacts of in-work benefits restrictions are concentrated on a small share of newly arriving families, it is unlikely that they would lead to a large reduction in EU migration to the UK.

    More...'

Bascaily, Frence, Dutch or whatever worker earning > 40k - no problem. You can stay.

Polish, Romanian, earning 4k + 20K tax top up. Foff.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I just clicked the link again and it seems something has changed. It is even better. A fall of 30%. Need to start a new thread to celebrate.

Brexit will damage the U.K. economy and residential property values in London could fall by more than 30 percent, Societe Generale SA analysts including Marc Mozzi wrote in a note to clients on Monday. U.K. homebuilder sales will drop by 5 percent, according to Barclays Plc analyst Jon Bell.

Edited by Fairyland

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Utter boll0cks...

http://www.migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/reports/eu-migration-welfare-benefits-and-eu-membership

'Key points

  • EU citizens with jobs have similar access to the benefits as UK citizens. For jobseekers or people not working, the rules for determining eligibility can be complex and vary depending on the type of benefit in question.

    More...

  • In February 2016 the UK and the EU agreed a set of proposals to restrict newly arriving EEA citizens’ access to in-work benefits if the UK votes to remain in the EU. The proposals also include the ability to reduce child benefit payments in respect of children living in other EEA countries, who currently make up about 0.3% of child benefit claims.

    More...

  • EU migrants are less likely to claim out-of-work benefits but more likely to claim in-work benefits like tax credits, compared to the UK born.

    More...

  • Most EU tax credit recipients in the UK did not arrive within the past four years and thus would not have been affected by restrictions on access to in-work benefits if they had been in place in recent years.

    More...

  • Available data suggest that roughly 10-20% of recently arrived EU adults were receiving tax credits in early 2014.

    More...

  • The government’s November 2015 estimate of ‘about 40%’ of recently arrived EEA migrants supported by benefits is higher than other available estimates for various reasons, including the fact that it counts children as benefits recipients.

    More...

  • More than half of EEA born adults who reported receiving tax credits in 2015 were working full time, and around 90% had dependent children (despite less than half of EEA born adults overall having children).

    More...

  • The impacts of proposed benefits restrictions are likely to vary widely and be concentrated on a small share of families with children - particularly minimum-wage workers with children and those in families without two-full time earners.

    More...

  • If the National Living Wage increases families’ incomes, this will reduce in-work benefits entitlements even without restrictions on welfare eligibility.

    More...

  • Because the impacts of in-work benefits restrictions are concentrated on a small share of newly arriving families, it is unlikely that they would lead to a large reduction in EU migration to the UK.

    More...'

The migration watch study is about Cameron's half-ar5ed reforms, way before Brexit.

I repeat - the ECJ have said that the EU right to work is just that. There is not right to receive benefits outside of your country.

Cmarons reforms might have slowed EU migrants a bit.

Stopping benefits dead, to new + eixsting EUer in the UK will see a flow of 2-3m leaving, pretty much as soon as the first benefit cheque stops.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The number of EU nationals claiming welfare benefits is around 100k, they mostly likely occupy around 30-50k properties.

Your 2m claim is a pure fantasy.

http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2016/02/19/how-much-do-eu-migrants-c_n_9272428.html

According to the UK government themselves....:-

https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/475765/uk-benefits-and-tax-credits-eea-migrants.pdf.

It is estimated that,at March 2013, between 37% and 45% of the EEA nationals (excluding students) who were resident in the UK having arrived in the preceding 4 years were in households claiming either an in work or out of work benefit or tax credit.

It's been estimated there are at least 5 million EEA nationals in the UK. 37% of 5,000,000 is 1,850,000. 45% of 5,000,000 is 2,250,500.

So spyguy's estimate is pretty accurate.

Of course, there could (and probably are) a lot more than 5,000,000 EEAs in the UK....but let's just take the government figures and it looks like around 2,000,000 EEAs are claiming in or out of work benefits.

Edited by canbuywontbuy

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

According to the UK government themselves....:-

https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/475765/uk-benefits-and-tax-credits-eea-migrants.pdf.

It's been estimated there are at least 5 million EEA nationals in the UK. 37% of 5,000,000 is 1,850,000. 45% of 5,000,000 is 2,250,500.

So spyguy's estimate is pretty accurate.

Of course, there could (and probably are) a lot more than 5,000,000 EEAs in the UK....but let's just take the government figures and it looks like around 2,000,000 EEAs are claiming in or out of work benefits.

I am sure there is a good number pre 2009 (preceding 4 years)

According to daily wail,

£886million... That is the eye-watering sum YOU pay in benefits to out-of-work EU migrants in just one year

Unemployed EU migrants received £886 million in Housing Benefit, Jobseekers Allowance and sickness pay in 2013-14

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3467563/886million-eye-watering-sum-pay-benefits-work-EU-migrants-just-one-year.html

Indeed an eye watering figure.

Edited by Fairyland

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

According to the UK government themselves....:-

https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/475765/uk-benefits-and-tax-credits-eea-migrants.pdf.

It's been estimated there are at least 5 million EEA nationals in the UK. 37% of 5,000,000 is 1,850,000. 45% of 5,000,000 is 2,250,500.

So spyguy's estimate is pretty accurate.

Of course, there could (and probably are) a lot more than 5,000,000 EEAs in the UK....but let's just take the government figures and it looks like around 2,000,000 EEAs are claiming in or out of work benefits.

There are a few issues with your calculations

1. 37% -45% is for EEA nationals who arrived in the last 4 years, it includes children. For this population the number of EEA nationals in households claiming in-work or out-of-work benefits was around 200k.

It is estimated that, at March 2013, between 37 per cent and 45 per cent of the EEA nationals (excluding students) who were resident in the UK having arrived in the preceding 4 years were in households claiming either an in-work or out-of-work benefit or tax credit. This represents between 195,000 and 235,000 (numerator) EEA Nationals in recently arrived households claiming benefits or tax credits at March 2013 out of 525,000 (denominator) recently arrived EEA nationals resident in the UK at March 2013.

2. Number of EU-born nationals (including people who arrived a long time ago and become citizens) is around 3mln, not 5mln. 1.5mln were in the UK before 2004.

http://www.migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/briefings/migration-flows-a8-and-other-eu-migrants-and-uk

3. spyguy's estimate is number properties that will come to the market because of the EU nationals losing TC and HB. Your final number is a number of people who are in families receiving any kind of benefits. You should divide your number by around 3 to get rentals, as that is the average number of people per a property in the UK.

Even if you assume that 40% of people who arrived since 2004 (1.5mln) are in families receiving benefits, you get 600k people and 200k properties. That is ten time smaller than the spyguy's claim.

Another way to see absurdity of this number is to notice that there is around 4mln properties owned by private landlords, you wouldn't claim that a half of all rental properties is occupied by the EU nationals claiming TC and HB, another half by the EU nationals not claiming those benefits.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

  • Next General Election   92 members have voted

    1. 1. When do you predict the next general election will be held?


      • 2019
      • 2020
      • 2021
      • 2022

    Please sign in or register to vote in this poll. View topic


×

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.