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House Price Predictions For 2006 By Those Guys In The Know

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Thought you guys would appreciate this run down of predictions for 2006. I am sure you will try and shoot the messenger but they all point one way, up, and with rates expected to drop in February 2006 by 25 basis points, especially after the minutes of the last BoE meeting showed that one guy looked try and cut rates and after data showed that inflation has eased right back to almost 2% again, i would say give up and get on the wagon. Prices are rising again, the slump (or slight dip) is over.

Sourced from http://go.reuters.co.uk/newsArticle.jhtml?...alog/GetContent

LONDON (Reuters) - Following is a list of the main survey publishers' predictions for annual house price inflation next year.

HALIFAX: forecasts 3 percent rise for 2006; latest year-on-year rise 4.5 percent

NATIONWIDE: forecasts 0-3 percent rise for 2006; latest year-on-year rise 2.4 percent

RICS: forecasts 4 percent rise for 2006

RIGHTMOVE: forecasts 4 percent rise for 2006; latest year-on-year rise 3.4 percent

HOMETRACK: forecasts 1 percent rise for 2006; latest year-on-year fall 2.5 percent

BANK OF ENGLAND

Inflation Report, Nov 16: "A range of indicators points to a moderate recovery in the housing market."

"The number of loan approvals for house purchases has increased. A measure of market tightness -- the ratio of sales to stocks on estate agents' books -- has also edged above its level during the first half of the year. And an average of the lenders' monthly data for house prices suggests that the pace of house price inflation may have ticked up recently."

BoE Governor Mervyn King, Nov 17: "We are in a position where the housing market is broadly stable."

TREASURY

Pre-Budget Report, Dec 5: "After the strong house price growth over recent years, prices have moderated sustainably as expected, stabilising between the middle of 2004 and spring 2005, before edging up more recently. The economy has continued to grow throughout this period. There are important differences between the current environment and past historical experience, which mean the risks of a protracted decline in house prices in the current cycle are far lower."

Chancellor Gordon Brown's Pre-Budget Report speech, Dec 5: "House prices, which were rising at 15 percent each year for three years, and at their peak rose by 25 percent, have moderated to 3 percent."

COUNCIL OF MORTGAGE LENDERS

Revised forecasts, Dec 6: "Over the next two years, prices are predicted to rise by 2 percent annually. Even though the number of property sales is expected to decline from 1.23 million in 2004 to 970,000 this year and 920,000 in 2006 and 2007, the high level of remortgaging will ensure that gross lending remains buoyant."

* The Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors publishes a balance for house prices based on the proportion of chartered surveyors reporting rises in house prices over those reporting a decline. The balance was -9 for the 3 months to October.

I am sure some of you will try and pick holes in this, but the fact that it is not all from mortgage lenders and includes comments from the Treasury and Bank of England will hopefully hit the facts home a little more. Then again from my past experience of this forum i am sure there are some of you who think you know better!!

Happy Xmas and i hope you all you bears have a happier 2006

ES

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Would these be the same Halifax and Nationwide that predicted 10-15% increases for 2005 last January and then revised the figures twice during the year to end up looking like they were only 1-2% out when in fact they were more like 9-13%.

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Thought you guys would appreciate this run down of predictions for 2006. I am sure you will try and shoot the messenger but they all point one way, up, and with rates expected to drop in February 2006 by 25 basis points, especially after the minutes of the last BoE meeting showed that one guy looked try and cut rates and after data showed that inflation has eased right back to almost 2% again, i would say give up and get on the wagon. Prices are rising again, the slump (or slight dip) is over.

Sourced from http://go.reuters.co.uk/newsArticle.jhtml?...alog/GetContent

LONDON (Reuters) - Following is a list of the main survey publishers' predictions for annual house price inflation next year.

HALIFAX: forecasts 3 percent rise for 2006; latest year-on-year rise 4.5 percent

NATIONWIDE: forecasts 0-3 percent rise for 2006; latest year-on-year rise 2.4 percent

RICS: forecasts 4 percent rise for 2006

RIGHTMOVE: forecasts 4 percent rise for 2006; latest year-on-year rise 3.4 percent

HOMETRACK: forecasts 1 percent rise for 2006; latest year-on-year fall 2.5 percent

BANK OF ENGLAND

Inflation Report, Nov 16: "A range of indicators points to a moderate recovery in the housing market."

"The number of loan approvals for house purchases has increased. A measure of market tightness -- the ratio of sales to stocks on estate agents' books -- has also edged above its level during the first half of the year. And an average of the lenders' monthly data for house prices suggests that the pace of house price inflation may have ticked up recently."

BoE Governor Mervyn King, Nov 17: "We are in a position where the housing market is broadly stable."

TREASURY

Pre-Budget Report, Dec 5: "After the strong house price growth over recent years, prices have moderated sustainably as expected, stabilising between the middle of 2004 and spring 2005, before edging up more recently. The economy has continued to grow throughout this period. There are important differences between the current environment and past historical experience, which mean the risks of a protracted decline in house prices in the current cycle are far lower."

Chancellor Gordon Brown's Pre-Budget Report speech, Dec 5: "House prices, which were rising at 15 percent each year for three years, and at their peak rose by 25 percent, have moderated to 3 percent."

COUNCIL OF MORTGAGE LENDERS

Revised forecasts, Dec 6: "Over the next two years, prices are predicted to rise by 2 percent annually. Even though the number of property sales is expected to decline from 1.23 million in 2004 to 970,000 this year and 920,000 in 2006 and 2007, the high level of remortgaging will ensure that gross lending remains buoyant."

* The Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors publishes a balance for house prices based on the proportion of chartered surveyors reporting rises in house prices over those reporting a decline. The balance was -9 for the 3 months to October.

I am sure some of you will try and pick holes in this, but the fact that it is not all from mortgage lenders and includes comments from the Treasury and Bank of England will hopefully hit the facts home a little more. Then again from my past experience of this forum i am sure there are some of you who think you know better!!

Happy Xmas and i hope you all you bears have a happier 2006

ES

Yes there has never been a better time to buy especially whilst renting is so much cheaper. :rolleyes::rolleyes::rolleyes::rolleyes:

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Those predictions sound like a re-print of the forecasts at the beginning of the Great Crash of the early 90's.

Around here (West Midlands) prices are already down by 10-20% with rising unsold stock and EA windows full of homes with "new prices". ODPM recently reported Milton Keynes down 7% in 2005. Etc etc.

Edited by Realistbear

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Would these be the same Halifax and Nationwide that predicted 10-15% increases for 2005 last January and then revised the figures twice during the year to end up looking like they were only 1-2% out when in fact they were more like 9-13%.

Well done Gilf. A masterly demonstration of trying to make bullish facts seem bearish. Whatever Halifax and Nationwide say, surely the fact that RICS, the Treasury, BoE, Rightmove, the council of mortgage lenders and gordon brown all agree is surely too much weight of evidence.

Unfortunately for you the public will believe what they see and flock back to the market in 2006 for fear of being left behind, spurring the market higher.

Just came back from Somerset for Christmas and talked to Estate Agents looking to sell a property of ours and they both said that the market has picked up hugely in the last few months.

ES

Edited by Economic Sensation

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Well done Gilf. A masterly demonstration of trying to make bullish facts seem bearish. Whatever Halifax and Nationwide say, surely the fact that RICS, the Treasury, BoE, Rightmove, the council of mortgage lenders and gordon brown all agree is surely too much weight of evidence.

Unfortunately for you the public will believe what they see and flock back to the market in 2006 for fear of being left behind, spurring the market higher.

Just came back from Somerset for Christmas and talked to Estate Agents looking to sell a property of ours and they both said that the market has picked up hugely in the last few months.

ES

Perhapes the public may get fooled, perhapes there may even be modest rises in 2006. However whilst renting remains at worst comparable (financialy) to buying and the market appears still so top heavy and precarious I personaly see no recourse to go and purchase. I shall be renewing my lease for another 12 mths in Jan.

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Well well, where have you been since the 4th November.

The VIs or Bulls post a few bullish threads today and suddenly like magic you appear. I would bet money that you are or work for a VI.

I can never understand if things are so hunky dory in the PM why the hell do people like you bother posting here. There must be a hidden fear in there somewhere. <_<

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ES, ALL these bodies are vested interests. Therefore their predictions will ALWAYS be for a healthy market in the short to medium term.

They will never publicly predict sustained falls or unsustainable growth.

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Well well, where have you been since the 4th November.

The VIs or Bulls post a few bullish threads today and suddenly like magic you appear. I would bet money that you are or work for a VI.

I can never understand if things are so hunky dory in the PM why the hell do people like you bother posting here. There must be a hidden fear in there somewhere. <_<

Aaahh. Did you miss me? No i just got bored of getting abuse from people who couldn't see the wood for the trees, despite the amount of evidence weighing against them, and would normally stay away but thought that these predictions were a good thing for the forum. My views have never changed since joining the forum, and its nice to see the major data sources all now agreeing with my view that prices bottomed out a few months ago and prices are heading up.

The amount of distrust in this forum and concern about conspiracy theorists amazes me. Would it every be worth for once actually believing what you read might be true?

No matter how cheap rents may be, i am happy to pick up 2-4% on my properties and make some good money on the banks loan, as well as picking up the rent excess.

An interesting thing though about the rents, i am surprised to see how different it is compared to where you live.

My parents are selling a house they own in the country in somerset for £375 but only get rent of £850 a month for it (which is considered good, despite the fact that its in great nick), however i rent out a £260k flat in London for £1200 a month. So i agree, if i lived in the country i would probably rent as you get a far better house. However in London without a doubt i would buy, as if i paid the money i pay in mortgage payments and repayment (just under £1,000pcm) in rent i would end up in a dire place somewhere.

ES

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Oh come on. Any statistician worth their salt knows to predict a movement within a 5% point either up or down is no prediction at all.

These are VIs voting for their jobs.

This was their choice:

Predict rapid house price growth - even the biggest EA chump is not going to put their head on the block for this one. What could it benefit you? If you are wrong (and isolated) you will never work again. If you are right you won't benefit.

Predict rapid house price falls - if you are a financial journalist you will be in splendid isolation and as an EA you will be fired.

Predict a bland non-committal but cosily-reassuring (and subsequently adjustable anyway) "slight upward trend" within a range that makes the change in house prices "statistically insignificant". This means that any prediction unwilling to exceed a 5% band IN EITHER DIRECTION contains no actual prognostication.

It means nothing and simply fills pages.

The Fox

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Well done Gilf. A masterly demonstration of trying to make bullish facts seem bearish. Whatever Halifax and Nationwide say, surely the fact that RICS, the Treasury, BoE, Rightmove, the council of mortgage lenders and gordon brown all agree is surely too much weight of evidence.

Unfortunately for you the public will believe what they see and flock back to the market in 2006 for fear of being left behind, spurring the market higher.

Just came back from Somerset for Christmas and talked to Estate Agents looking to sell a property of ours and they both said that the market has picked up hugely in the last few months.

ES

Yep could happen. It will simply lead to a bigger fall later ES.

What would the point of that be? Why delay the inevitable?

Please don't confuse spin with "evidence". All the sources you mentioned have an interest in avoiding panic selling and market stagnation. This crash is being " managed" as carefully as possible. If they get away with 20-30% falls over 5 years the Treasury BOE and CML will be secretly very happy. Believe me it's a far better scenario than they are currently daring to postulate to each other behing closed doors.

Please let me clarify - you walked into an estate agent with a view to considering instructing them to market your house and they said the market had dramatically improved in the last few months? Gosh I wonder why they said that?

The Fox

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So, tell us, what sort of company do you work for? Are you paid to post here?

I think he has gone to lunch or attending a Management meeting. :)

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Aaahh. Did you miss me? No i just got bored of getting abuse from people who couldn't see the wood for the trees, despite the amount of evidence weighing against them, and would normally stay away but thought that these predictions were a good thing for the forum. My views have never changed since joining the forum, and its nice to see the major data sources all now agreeing with my view that prices bottomed out a few months ago and prices are heading up.

The amount of distrust in this forum and concern about conspiracy theorists amazes me. Would it every be worth for once actually believing what you read might be true?

No matter how cheap rents may be, i am happy to pick up 2-4% on my properties and make some good money on the banks loan, as well as picking up the rent excess.

An interesting thing though about the rents, i am surprised to see how different it is compared to where you live.

My parents are selling a house they own in the country in somerset for £375 but only get rent of £850 a month for it (which is considered good, despite the fact that its in great nick), however i rent out a £260k flat in London for £1200 a month. So i agree, if i lived in the country i would probably rent as you get a far better house. However in London without a doubt i would buy, as if i paid the money i pay in mortgage payments and repayment (just under £1,000pcm) in rent i would end up in a dire place somewhere.

ES

Your parents may have the property on the market in Somerset but the fact that they have looked at renting it out suggests it hasn't exactly flown off the EAs shelves at that price. Tell us when we can check it on nethouseprices. Until then its just a Wurzel EAs dream.

The Fox

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My parents are selling a house they own in the country in somerset for £375

Presumably you mean 'having a laugh by putting it in an EA window at a stupid price to see if any idiots bite'? I hate to tell you, but they've missed the boat... HMS Sell To Rent left the dock months ago.

but only get rent of £850 a month for it

And that is precisely why prices are going only one way: down. Don't your parents wonder why no-one is even willing to pay enough rent to cover a mortgage on the house? Who in their right mind would pay twice as much to rent a house from the bank as they could pay to rent it from your parents?

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Would these be the same Halifax and Nationwide that predicted 10-15% increases for 2005 last January and then revised the figures twice during the year to end up looking like they were only 1-2% out when in fact they were more like 9-13%.

No, they're the same Halifax and Nationwide that predicted a 2% fall and a 2% increase in 2005, unless you think they've also retroactively edited stories from the BBC's archive. Perhaps you're thinking of their 2004 forecasts. So Halifax were a bit on the low side, and Nationwide were spot-on.

Edited by zorn

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Guest Bart of Darkness
Well done Gilf. A masterly demonstration of trying to make bullish facts seem bearish.

Facts? What facts?

A masterly demonstration of making (inaccurate) predictions seem like facts. :P

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Would these be the same Halifax and Nationwide that predicted 10-15% increases for 2005 last January and then revised the figures twice during the year to end up looking like they were only 1-2% out when in fact they were more like 9-13%.

Hi Gilf

Have you a link to the previous 2005 prediction?

I can find this link: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/4072901.stm but you can see it was modified on 31 Mar 05. So, I would like to know what predictions were made in 2004 for 2005.

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Thought you guys would appreciate this run down of predictions for 2006. I am sure you will try and shoot the messenger but they all point one way, up, and with rates expected to drop in February 2006 by 25 basis points, especially after the minutes of the last BoE meeting showed that one guy looked try and cut rates and after data showed that inflation has eased right back to almost 2% again, i would say give up and get on the wagon. Prices are rising again, the slump (or slight dip) is over.

Sourced from http://go.reuters.co.uk/newsArticle.jhtml?...alog/GetContent

LONDON (Reuters) - Following is a list of the main survey publishers' predictions for annual house price inflation next year.

HALIFAX: forecasts 3 percent rise for 2006; latest year-on-year rise 4.5 percent

NATIONWIDE: forecasts 0-3 percent rise for 2006; latest year-on-year rise 2.4 percent

RICS: forecasts 4 percent rise for 2006

RIGHTMOVE: forecasts 4 percent rise for 2006; latest year-on-year rise 3.4 percent

HOMETRACK: forecasts 1 percent rise for 2006; latest year-on-year fall 2.5 percent

BANK OF ENGLAND

Inflation Report, Nov 16: "A range of indicators points to a moderate recovery in the housing market."

"The number of loan approvals for house purchases has increased. A measure of market tightness -- the ratio of sales to stocks on estate agents' books -- has also edged above its level during the first half of the year. And an average of the lenders' monthly data for house prices suggests that the pace of house price inflation may have ticked up recently."

BoE Governor Mervyn King, Nov 17: "We are in a position where the housing market is broadly stable."

TREASURY

Pre-Budget Report, Dec 5: "After the strong house price growth over recent years, prices have moderated sustainably as expected, stabilising between the middle of 2004 and spring 2005, before edging up more recently. The economy has continued to grow throughout this period. There are important differences between the current environment and past historical experience, which mean the risks of a protracted decline in house prices in the current cycle are far lower."

Chancellor Gordon Brown's Pre-Budget Report speech, Dec 5: "House prices, which were rising at 15 percent each year for three years, and at their peak rose by 25 percent, have moderated to 3 percent."

COUNCIL OF MORTGAGE LENDERS

Revised forecasts, Dec 6: "Over the next two years, prices are predicted to rise by 2 percent annually. Even though the number of property sales is expected to decline from 1.23 million in 2004 to 970,000 this year and 920,000 in 2006 and 2007, the high level of remortgaging will ensure that gross lending remains buoyant."

* The Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors publishes a balance for house prices based on the proportion of chartered surveyors reporting rises in house prices over those reporting a decline. The balance was -9 for the 3 months to October.

I am sure some of you will try and pick holes in this, but the fact that it is not all from mortgage lenders and includes comments from the Treasury and Bank of England will hopefully hit the facts home a little more. Then again from my past experience of this forum i am sure there are some of you who think you know better!!

Happy Xmas and i hope you all you bears have a happier 2006

ES

well thats it, you have convinced me! i'm going to have to buy now :lol:

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House Price Predictions For 2006 By Those Guys In The Know

Who actually knows?

It's all about VI opinion, media opinion and a large does of VI BS, all mixed together to create a mush which the average buyer doesn't question before swallowing it.

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Presumably you mean 'having a laugh by putting it in an EA window at a stupid price to see if any idiots bite'? I hate to tell you, but they've missed the boat... HMS Sell To Rent left the dock months ago.

And that is precisely why prices are going only one way: down. Don't your parents wonder why no-one is even willing to pay enough rent to cover a mortgage on the house? Who in their right mind would pay twice as much to rent a house from the bank as they could pay to rent it from your parents?

My my, so much anger on this site. Whatever you guys think, i am going to have to go with the big guys with the big numbers. On a personal level i bought at the supposed top of the market in 2003 and have seen it go up anyway, and there are certainly not loads of properties on the market.

They put it up because its a rental flat they have owned for years and wanted to retain control and the income. But last year the market was dead so they got a good offer to rent it out again. Now they want to sell it, and i am glad they waited because they will get more this year. The market has picked up in the area and 3 estate agents have all valued it £25k above last years valuation. If they fail to sell it at that price i will happily eat my hat.

You are very right about renting a house, but you seem to have conveniently missed my other comment about my flat. The point is that there is not much of a rental market in the middle of the country, so rents are often less than the mortgage you would need to buy the place. My comment, if you actually read my post properly, was on on the fact that in the London market you can typically rent it out for more than you pay on the mortgage, not on the state of the market.

the_duke_of_hazard, if you can get a 2 bedroom large garden flat in Kensinton for under £1,000 a month, i applaud you. But from what i can see you are the exception rather than the rule. The mortgage on my place costs £900, and i get £1200 a month, and its going up in value. You can't tell me that renting is better where i am, maybe in Somerset, but definetly not here.

Good luck guys, you carry on pouring your money into the landlords pockets, the rest of us will still be there as prices continue to rise, as we will all need nice tenants to fill new properties up.

I wonder what the stats on this site are, there seem to be less people nowadays, i wonder why that is??

ES

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My my, so much anger on this site

What anger? I'm not the one who thinks they can sell a house for more than twice the rental income, and risks being lumbered with over a hundred thousand pounds of negative equity if I can't sell.

If you think people here are angry, just wait and see what the 'home-owners' are like when they realise that they're going to be enslaved to their mortgage lender for the rest of their lives.

But hey, house prices always go up and interest rates will be 2% in a few months, right?

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What anger? I'm not the one who thinks they can sell a house for more than twice the rental income, and risks being lumbered with over a hundred thousand pounds of negative equity if I can't sell.

If you think people here are angry, just wait and see what the 'home-owners' are like when they realise that they're going to be enslaved to their mortgage lender for the rest of their lives.

But hey, house prices always go up and interest rates will be 2% in a few months, right?

???? Do you actually read any of these posts? I also don't think i can sell a house over the odds, and i am not trying to. As i said before, my parents are, and as i said before, this is typical in the countryside where people are much more likely to be homeowners than renters. They only want to sell to realise some dosh (they don't have a mortgage). I hardly think i am likely to be lumbered with negative equity, the house has actually gone up in value and i cant' see mine on the market for £125 where a well paid student could almost afford to buy it.

I am happy to wait and see. Myself, and seemingly virtually all of the financial institutions out there as well as the public, think that prices are going to go up, and as they say in the markets, don't bet against the trend. You are all happy to dispute all of the bullish talk out there of prices but you all seem to have forgotton that you were probably all bearish at the start of 2005 and expected prices to fall 20%, as did many others including Roger Bootle. However none of you are right and are now starting to look silly.

Even Roger, the arch house price crash forecaster, has changed his mind

"The clearest sign of the change has come from Roger Bootle, whose consultancy Capital Economics has been one of the City’s most vocal prophets of a house price slump.

At the start of this year Mr Bootle wrote in a report for Deloitte: “We continue to expect house prices to drop by a total of 20 per cent or so over the next two years, but a bigger fall cannot be ruled out.”

But last week, Capital Economics announced a “forecast change”: noting the lack of a sustained fall in house prices in 2005, they now predict house prices to drop by just 2 per cent in both 2006 and 2007. "

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,2-1960912,00.html

If even he has changed his tune, i think it might be time for some of you to check your music.

Edited by Economic Sensation

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This thread demonstrates all of the attributes that a housing bear can show - desperate, mentalist, sour grapes, blind faith, complete indoctrination, bitterness, jealousy etc etc.

Wake up guys, before you go off your minds. I wonder if their is a physcological disorder relating to house price crash ? People on this site are going to be jibbering wrecks if we don't get at least some sign of a HPC before June 06.

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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